Rookie Review – Round 12

The Rookie Cupboard Might Not Be Empty

For the first time in about 4 weeks… the rookie cupboard might not actually be completely bare. Now don’t get me wrong, we are still shopping in the reduced-to-clear section and checking expiry dates very carefully, but at least this week there appears to be actual food on the shelves.

After a month of desperately convincing ourselves that a midfielder averaging 34 with terrible JS was somehow “interesting,” we finally have a couple of rookies that look genuinely playable. And honestly, the timing could not be better.


The Bye rounds are here.

Which means rookie strategy changes completely. At this stage of the season, it is no longer about trying to perfectly pick the rookie who scores 84 instead of 63. It becomes much more about survival: who is actually playing, who can hold their spot, who fits your bye structure, and who can continue making money without immediately getting dropped.

The good news is that during the byes it is Best 18 scoring, so at least we can temporarily stop playing rookie roulette every week. No more spending the entire weekend debating which rookie to field, only to somehow choose the one who scores 23 while your emergency loopholes a 79 on the bench.

The other thing coaches need to think about now is bye structure. Normally a rookie on the bye with a high BE is an easy sell. They are not scoring, not making money and are basically just sitting there taking up space like the exercise bike everyone promised they would use in January.

But it is not always that simple. Some coaches will already be planning ahead to the uglier bye rounds like Round 14 and Round 16 and identifying rookies they may actually want to hold a bit longer for bench cover. Because suddenly that rookie averaging 43 with shaky JS becomes extremely important when your alternative is fielding 17 players and pretending your season is “league focused now.”

Rookie Targets

Compared to the rookie wasteland we have had recently though… this week almost feels luxurious.

Jack Ison – Strong Buy

Ison is clearly the standout rookie this week.

Two games for scores of 75 and 70 while averaging around 80% TOG is already excellent for a basement-priced rookie, but the bigger thing is he genuinely looks comfortable at AFL level. Carlton have also won both games he has played, which is huge for job security. Coaches are always more willing to stick with younger players when the team is winning. And he probably could have gone even bigger on the weekend. He kicked 1 goal 3 behinds and left a heap of scoring out there. A couple of those behinds become goals and suddenly we are talking about a 90+ score.

Nearly 40,000 coaches brought him in before Round 11 and another 28,000 had already jumped onboard by Tuesday afternoon.

At this point, not owning him almost feels scarier than owning him.

Charlie Banfield – Good Buy

Scores of 48 and 80 from around 70% TOG is excellent for a basement rookie and the MID/FWD DPP is incredibly valuable during the bye rounds.

St Kilda also have the friendly Round 16 bye which helps structurally.

The concern is definitely job security. The Saints have players coming back soon with Dan Butler and Jack Higgins likely around a week away, while Liam Ryan and Nas Wanganeen-Milera are probably a couple of weeks away. So while Banfield looks good right now, there is definitely some risk attached to how long the run lasts.

Still, at $113k with a BE of -60, he is very hard to ignore.

Sam Marshall – Good Buy

Marshall is the interesting “premium rookie” option this week.

At nearly $200k he is expensive by rookie standards, but there is definitely something to like.

Taken with Pick 25 in the 2024 draft, he played six games last season, although three were as the sub. Importantly, he scored 71 in the preliminary final against Collingwood while starting on field. He was then named sub in Brisbane’s premiership-winning side, which again tells you the Lions clearly trust him in big moments.

And Brisbane are one of the hardest teams in the league to break into. If a young player is consistently around selection in a strong Lions side, that usually means the club rates him highly. Marshall initially got a game two weeks ago when Lincoln McCarthy injured his hamstring. At the time, McCarthy was only expected to miss a week or two, which made Marshall’s JS look a bit shaky.

But in a big boost for Marshall, McCarthy has since damaged the tendon during rehab and is now likely to miss another three to four weeks. That potentially gives Marshall a much longer runway in the senior side, which is exactly what we want from a more expensive rookie.

If named again this week, he is absolutely worth considering despite the higher price, especially with Brisbane having the friendly Round 15 bye. Sometimes paying more for stronger job security is simply the smarter play.

Its a pity he doesn’t have DPP, as a result i’ll probably lean towards the cheaper Banfield.

Derksen – Buy

Derksen was finally named again last week for his third game and more than 23,000 coaches immediately jumped onboard.

If you got him at $99k last week, fantastic result.

His score of 67 from 15 disposals and 7 marks was genuinely impressive and he looked far more comfortable at AFL level than many expected.

The concern is still job security with Weitering likely returning soon from his calf strain, although we still do not fully know how serious that injury is.

I probably would not be chasing him as aggressively now after the price rise, he still only $143k and there is still money to make and he remains a decent option.

Noah Roberts-Thomson – Buy

Roberts-Thomson has now played two games and Richmond’s injury list is becoming so large they may soon need to start selecting random supporters from Bay 13.

He kicked a goal last week but only had four disposals overall and did not exactly dominate.

Still, at basement price with a BE of -20, if he gets named again he remains relevant.

This is not really about chasing scoring upside. This is about finding living rookies who can generate cash and help us survive the bye rounds without emotional damage.

Bodie Ryan – Hold

Ryan has now played three games and his third outing was not nearly as good as his first two, managing just 30 points.

The frustrating part is he actually had 11 disposals but five clangers absolutely destroyed his score.

Still, 83% TOG is a very positive sign and probably more important long term than the actual score itself. Ryan also spent a lot of the game doing a lockdown role on Josh Rachele and actually did a pretty solid job. Now, lockdown roles are generally terrible for SuperCoach scoring, but coaches absolutely love young players who can execute defensive roles properly. Which is great for his JS even if it is not great for our fantasy teams.

He also allowed Blake Hardwick to move into the Gunston-role forward of the ball which basically helped Hawthorn win the game.

I still think Ryan probably holds his place even with Gunston returning, with Cameron Nairn or Bailey Macdonald more likely to make way.

Harvey Johnston – Hold

Harvey Johnston had a slightly better third game with 43, which at least moved things in the right direction.

But small forwards remain one of the great SuperCoach traps and Harvey continues to politely demonstrate why.

He is still cheap and technically still making money, but I would not be recommending him as a fresh buy.

There are enough better options around this week that you do not really need to go there.

Billy Cootee – Hold

Cootee was omitted last week after playing four games which probably ends the discussion for most coaches.

He never really produced enough scoring to become a genuine downgrade target and MID-only status made him awkward structurally anyway.

He quietly disappears into the rookie abyss.

Thomas Burton – Hold

Burton’s cash generation has slowed significantly now with the BE climbing to 31.

Still, his job security actually looks reasonably solid and there may still be a bit more money left to make if he holds his place.

Not really a priority buy anymore though. More of a “hold if you own” type now.

Nik Cox – Hold

Nik Cox was omitted last week which probably tells the story.

Whether he was managed or dropped, his first three games were not particularly impressive from a scoring perspective and the role just did not look fantasy friendly.

He remains one of those players who always feels like he should score better than he actually does. At least his price has not blown out, but there are now simply better options available.

Jack Watkins – Hold

Jack Watkins remains one of the great slow burns in SuperCoach history.

Nine games played and still under $174k is honestly impressive in its own strange way.

He has the bye this round, but the MID/FWD DPP and relatively decent JS still make him slightly interesting for coaches desperate for flexibility and cover.

He is basically the rookie equivalent of reheated leftovers. Not exciting, but occasionally useful when there is nothing else available.

The Passes

Harrison Oliver was a late replacement for Whitfield which does not exactly scream strong job security. He has now played two games for scores of 48 and 35 and looks like a very slow burn cash cow at best.

Charlie West has managed scores of 22 and 36 in his first two games which simply is not enough.

Jasper Alger is another Richmond injury replacement who had 10 disposals in a half-forward role but did not show enough scoring upside.

Talor Byrne kicked a goal as a small forward on the weekend, but the BE is now simply too high to seriously consider.


Bubble Boys Still Waiting

There are still a few players technically “on the bubble” after playing two games, but for several of them their third game is still a fair way away, which makes things awkward from a cash generation perspective.

Players like Lachlan Smith ($119,900), Charlie Edwards ($119,900), Darragh Joyce ($119,900) and Jack Dalton ($113,500) are still sitting there in rookie limbo.

In a normal season we might have more interest in them, but at this stage of the year waiting multiple weeks for a third game and a price rise can become difficult during the bye rounds when coaches need cash generation immediately.

All four are basically sitting in the “monitor if named again” category for now.



Bye Round Sell Watch

These are not necessarily the “must sell” rookies overall. These are simply the more highly owned fattened rookies who also happen to have the bye this week, which naturally puts them firmly into the trade discussion.

Normally a rookie with a high BE and a bye is the easiest trade you will make all season. But during the byes it is never quite that simple.

Some of these players may still be useful for future bye coverage, particularly if they help you through the tougher rounds later on. Others have probably reached the point where the cash generation is done and they are now simply sitting there waiting to become an upgrade target.

So rather than discussing every fattened rookie in the game, we are only focusing on the key bye-round rookies coaches are likely debating this week.

Bye Round Sell Watch

Leo Lombard – Hold

Probably still has enough life left in him to justify holding, especially if he helps your bye structure over the next few rounds.

The BE of 26 is still manageable and unlike a lot of rookies this time of year, he actually still looks capable of making a bit more cash. At this stage of the season, that is basically luxury.

Todd Marshall – Sell

Marshall has been playing as a forward lately and honestly… it has been pretty hard to watch from a SuperCoach perspective.

The FWD/DEF DPP is extremely handy and probably the main reason some coaches will still hold, but with the BE climbing it is becoming a very tough watch. He still feels useful structurally, but the cash generation is slowing quickly and this feels very close to the right exit point.

Toby Murray – Sell

Murray feels much closer to the classic “thank you for your service” stage of rookie management. He has done a great job after returning to the side earlier in the season and making strong cash, but with the bye and rising BE, it is becoming difficult to justify holding much longer.

Tom Blamires – Sell

Blamires has probably reached the point where the cash generation is effectively over. The BE is now sitting at 76 and unless you desperately need his bye coverage, this feels like a fairly straightforward upgrade trade.

Sometimes the hardest part of SuperCoach is simply accepting a rookie has completed their mission. Blamires feels like he is there now.

Josh Lai – Hold

Lai probably still has enough cash generation left to justify holding.

The BE of 26 is still very manageable and his flexibility plus bye structure could easily make him useful over the next fortnight.

At this stage of the year, a rookie still making money while helping you field numbers is incredibly valuable.

Brayden Cook – Sell

Cook is the tough one. He has actually still been scoring reasonably well, although his last two weeks of 70 and 67 have slowed the momentum a bit.

The issue with Cook is that so much of his scoring depends on which side of the ground Adelaide decides to use and whether he gets involved in the ball movement.

When the Crows are flowing through his wing and half-forward side he can score very well. When they are not… he can disappear for long stretches.

The BE of 93 probably tells the story though. He has done his job brilliantly and now feels like one of the better upgrade targets available.

Lachlan McAndrew – Sell

McAndrew is probably done for cash generation.

He looked absolutely gassed late in the game against Hawthorn’s dual ruck setup and actually lost points during the last quarter.

Which honestly felt symbolic for his cash generation as a whole.

He has done exactly what we wanted him to do: make huge money, provide cover, and survive long enough to become a premium upgrade.

Now he sits there with a high BE waiting to be turned into a proper premium. When to sell him will depend on who your target replacement is. If it is a Gawn or a Grundy, go now, however if it is Xerri you can wait a week for Xerri to have his r12 bye.


Conclusion

For the first time in a while, rookie trading this week actually feels relatively straightforward.

Jack Ison is the clear standout and probably as close to a “must-have” downgrade as we have seen in weeks.

Banfield also looks very good, particularly with the MID/FWD flexibility, while Marshall shapes as the premium rookie option for coaches willing to pay extra for stronger job security and better bye structure.

After that, it really becomes team dependent. Some coaches will chase maximum cash generation. Others will prioritise bye coverage and job security.

And some of us will simply be hoping our rookies survive Thursday night selection so we do not have to spend the weekend staring at red dots and questioning our life choices.

And remember, during the byes it is Best 18 scoring, so we can finally stop playing rookie roulette for a few weeks.



thanks fellas