Here is a summary of all the relevant break-evens prior to Round 13. The unwritten rule of bye trading says you should pay particular attention to premiums from teams that are coming off the bye – this week that means North, Carlton, Port and the Bulldogs. The break-even or BE is the score that a player will need to achieve in their next game in order to hold their current value. A low BE generally indicates that a player has recently performed above expectations, while a high break-even is a flag for an imminent price drop (and potentially good buying!).
For brevity, I’ve only included players with ‘significant ownership’, plus a few speculators. If there’s anyone missing that you’d like a number for, let me know in the comments.
(Players marked with an asterisk have played two games and are “on the bubble”)
DEFENDERS
Premiums
Nic MARTIN ($589,300): 61
Max HOLMES ($519,600): 75
Nasiah WANGANEEN-MILERA ($507,100): 77 (BYE)
Jordan CLARK ($543,200): 95 (BYE)
Jack SINCLAIR ($593,000): 98 (BYE)
Bailey DALE ($552,200): 106
Lachie ASH ($552,900): 108
Connor ROZEE ($531,100): 131
Lachie WHITFIELD ($552,700): 132
Dayne ZORKO ($548,700): 144
Harry SHEEZEL ($516,800): 169
Midpricers
Tom STEWART ($429,800): 56
Sam FLANDERS ($394,000): 56
Jaxon PRIOR ($350,100): 63
Matt ROBERTS ($449,900): 88
Riley BICE ($313,500): 110
Rookies
Angus CLARKE* ($113,500): -73
Campbell GRAY ($173,500): -48
Kaleb SMITH ($149,200): -26
Riley HARDEMANN ($280,000): 3
Joe FONTI ($249,800): 9
Sandy BROCK ($244,600): 16
Matthew CARROLL ($189,000): 35
Luke TRAINOR ($242,800): 89
MIDFIELDERS
Premiums
Adam CERRA ($513,100): 42
Matt ROWELL ($519,400): 68
Jack STEELE ($534,600): 71 (BYE)
Zach MERRETT ($546,100): 77
Hugh MCCLUGGAGE ($598,500): 80
Tom LIBERATORE ($595,200): 86
Jordan DAWSON ($578,600): 95
Noah ANDERSON ($594,200): 96
Nick DAICOS ($535,100): 96
Will ASHCROFT ($516,400): 97
Lachie NEALE ($574,300): 111
Ed RICHARDS ($602,900): 114
Caleb SERONG ($535,700): 116 (BYE)
Tom GREEN ($549,000): 118
Isaac HEENEY ($536,700): 127
Marcus BONTEMPELLI ($643,300): 137
Andrew BRAYSHAW ($599,200): 139 (BYE)
Josh DUNKLEY ($535,700): 153
Zak BUTTERS ($585,900): 197
Midpricers
Jye CALDWELL ($440,500): 21
Kane MCAULIFFE ($329,400): 26
Ned LONG ($456,600): 46
Xavier LINDSAY ($319,000): 51
Harvey LANGFORD ($348,600): 81
Clayton OLIVER ($467,800): 91
Rookies
Edward ALLAN ($249,300): -17
Angus SHELDRICK ($289,300): -5
Hugh BOXSHALL ($153,400): 25 (BYE)
RUCKS
Thomas SIMS ($177,200): -7
Luke JACKSON ($619,000): 85 (BYE)
Matt FLYNN ($395,600): 111
Tom DE KONING ($528,000): 131
Darcy CAMERON ($533,200): 138
Max GAWN ($707,400): 159
Tristan XERRI ($731,200): 161
Rowan MARSHALL ($547,300): 183 (BYE)
FORWARDS
Premiums
Kysaiah PICKETT ($514,000): 93
Christian PETRACCA ($534,200): 106
Bailey SMITH ($635,700): 132
Jack MACRAE ($517,300): 153 (BYE)
Chad WARNER ($509,800): 162
Midpricers
Gryan MIERS ($451,000): 53
Caleb DANIEL ($424,700): 60
Jeremy CAMERON ($467,000): 61
Riley THILTHORPE ($492,600): 70
Levi ASHCROFT ($387,300): 77
Liam BAKER ($483,700): 86
Shai BOLTON ($485,600): 117 (BYE)
Matthew KENNEDY ($496,600): 118
Izak RANKINE ($489,200): 143
Jason HORNE-FRANCIS ($499,600): 158
Rookies
Luke PEDLAR* ($150,400): -56
Isaac KEELER ($165,900): -32 (BYE)
Neil ERASMUS ($233,700): -16 (BYE)
Cody ANGOVE ($149,700): 2
Elijah HEWETT ($297,000): 28
Isaac KAKO ($214,100): 32
Caiden CLEARY ($230,300): 91