Cow Talk R3 –> R4

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

Last week we talked about floating premiums.  I was going to follow that up, but there is so much going on with Cows and Cow Like Objects, I decided to run some numbers a few weeks early, to maybe help make some sense of what’s up with these guys. 

Before starting a little background.  Prices change based on the average of the last three round’s scores. (There must be three rounds of scores.)  If that average is over what the player is currently priced to average then their price goes up, if below their price goes down. Cows start way underpriced so tend to go up a lot. 

The first score that is taken into effect three times for price changes in their third score of the season. Many cows just had their third score of the season. Many of those were much higher or lower than their first two scores. Guys who looked good now don’t, and guys who looked bad now look good.  

So anyways, gonna put a bunch of numbers below. Not intended to be complete but should hit most of the weird ones. 

 

Defenders

 

Prior
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		169,200
1	50	169,200
2	57	169,200
3	78	169,200
4	62.0	206,600
5	62.0	240,314	33,714	33,714
6	62.0	267,517	27,203	60,917
7	62.0	280,601	13,084	74,001
8	62.0	290,300	9,699	83,700
9	62.0	297,489	7,189	90,889
10	62.0	302,818	5,329	96,218

 

Z Reid
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1	45	119,900
2	36	119,900
3	88	119,900
4	60.0	163,100
5	60.0	202,317	39,217	39,217
6	60.0	242,007	39,690	78,907
7	60.0	259,037	17,030	95,937
8	60.0	271,660	12,623	108,560
9	60.0	281,017	9,357	117,917
10	60.0	287,953	6,936	124,853

 

Trainor
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		133,500
1	50	133,500
2	24	133,500
3	90	133,500
4	60.0	156,200
5	60.0	192,778	36,578	36,578
6	60.0	235,821	43,043	79,621
7	60.0	254,451	18,631	98,251
8	60.0	268,261	13,810	112,061
9	60.0	278,498	10,237	122,298
10	60.0	286,086	7,588	129,886

 

These guys all looked bad and then: Boom! Yummy.  I did Reid and Trainor at a 60 average which seems sane and reasonable. Prior is averaging 62 so I didn;t want to go under that for him.  Odds are they can put up another good score or two and end up making good cash. Even at lower scares as shown they will be ok. Unlikely to be worth a trade to replace now.  Bice will probably make more money, but enough more to use a trade? Prior maybe. 

Which they were all, for lack of a better term, fallen cows after the first two weeks, well, they regressed up and are now doing fine. 

 

Midfielders

 

Levi Ashcroft
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	70.0	221,700
5	70.0	243,099	21,399	21,399
6	70.0	258,077	14,977	36,377
7	70.0	284,224	26,147	62,524
8	70.0	303,605	19,381	81,905
9	70.0	317,971	14,366	96,271
10	70.0	328,620	10,649	106,920

 

Knevitt
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		145,800
1	82	145,800
2	58	145,800
3	20	145,800
4	70.0	181,200
5	70.0	199,804	18,604	18,604
6	70.0	218,904	19,100	37,704
7	70.0	255,187	36,283	73,987
8	70.0	282,081	26,895	100,881
9	70.0	302,017	19,936	120,817
10	70.0	316,794	14,777	135,594

So, these guys are like the Mirror Universe of the defenders. Seemed to be going ok, but then a big ick. I think assuming a 70 average is on the generous side, but for the sake of seeing how that goes I used that. Both have their cash gen slowed a lot. Ashcroft is a worry because it is not clear, as far as I know, why he scored so badly, unlike Knevitt, who was the sub, and could be the sub again. Even with that, is swapping them for someone else going to be worth a trade? Um. Moraes might be, but then are either of these guys the cow most suitable for sending to Moo-Ron Mountain? They are for sure better than anyone who lost their job. 

 

Lindsay
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,500
1	86	158,500
2	78	158,500
3	9	158,500
4	75.0	193,400
5	75.0	215,042	21,642	21,642
6	75.0	229,757	14,715	36,357
7	75.0	269,869	40,112	76,469
8	75.0	299,602	29,733	106,202
9	75.0	321,642	22,040	128,242
10	75.0	337,978	16,337	144,578

 

Have given him an even bigger benefit of the doubt with a 75 average. If he feels no lingering effects from his injury, well, seems ok? If he misses a week all the totals go back by a week. Even with that 9 he could end up making more by Round than than the other two. 

 

O’Sullivan
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		199,000
1	51	199,000
2	42	199,000
3	44	199,000
4	45.7	207,400
5	45.7	211,997	4,597	4,597
6	45.7	217,027	5,030	9,627
7	45.7	221,493	4,466	14,093
8	45.7	224,804	3,310	17,404
9	45.7	227,258	2,454	19,858
10	45.7	229,077	1,819	21,677

 

Would trade out before any of the above. I mean, wow. Sure, he could suddenly have a big score, but I sure would not wait around for that. At least he is playing. 

 

Rucks

Not currently

 

Forwards

 

Hugo Garcia
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		245,800
1	54	245,800
2	25	245,800
3	99	245,800
4	59.3	260,000
5	59.3	273,849	13,849	13,849
6	59.3	299,307	25,458	39,307
7	59.3	300,626	1,318	40,626
8	59.3	301,603	977	41,603
9	59.3	302,327	724	42,327
10	59.3	302,864	537	42,864

 

If he manages 70s or more, he’ll make more cash and be a hold until his BE nears his average. If he spuds, then he’ll probably need to go. I actually held him, mainly because of a lack of people to trade him to. 

 

Davidson
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	39	113,500
2	72	113,500
3	129	113,500
4	80.0	189,800
5	80.0	265,031	75,231	75,231
6	80.0	324,336	59,305	134,536
7	80.0	346,613	22,277	156,813
8	80.0	363,126	16,513	173,326
9	80.0	375,366	12,240	185,566
10	80.0	384,439	9,073	194,639

No need for him here, I’m just enjoying seeing someone I (and everyone) owns do well. 

 

Sam PP
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,500
1	18	180,500
2	83	180,500
3	48	180,500
4	49.7	199,000
5	49.7	227,453	28,453	28,453
6	49.7	233,794	6,341	34,794
7	49.7	239,232	5,438	40,232
8	49.7	243,262	4,031	44,262
9	49.7	246,250	2,988	47,250
10	49.7	248,464	2,215	49,464

He’s not setting the world on fire. Could score a pair of 80s and be all cash man, or could score more 48s and be a spud. 

 

B Smith
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		389,200
1	147	389,200
2		389,200
3	81	389,200
4	114.0	389,200
5	114.0	439,828	50,628	50,628
6	114.0	462,754	22,926	73,554
7	114.0	494,350	31,596	105,150
8	114.0	517,770	23,420	128,570
9	114.0	535,131	17,360	145,931
10	114.0	547,999	12,868	158,799

Not a cow, duh, but still. First rise is likely to be big. 

 

Humphrey
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		270,400
1	104	270,400
2		270,400
3	111	270,400
4	80.0	270,400
5	80.0	330,971	60,571	60,571
6	80.0	365,248	34,278	94,848
7	80.0	376,939	11,691	106,539
8	80.0	385,605	8,666	115,205
9	80.0	392,029	6,424	121,629
10	80.0	396,790	4,761	126,390

I used a super pessimistic average of 80 and he still looks decent. He could very easily make $150,000 in three rounds if he gets 100s for the next three games. I don;t really know how to estimate his scoring but he’s good even with just 80 a round. 

 

Maric
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		223,800
1	33	223,800
2	72	223,800
3	123	223,800
4	76.0	265,800
5	76.0	316,941	51,141	51,141
6	76.0	356,619	39,678	90,819
7	76.0	365,233	8,614	99,433
8	76.0	371,618	6,385	105,818
9	76.0	376,350	4,733	110,550
10	76.0	379,859	3,508	114,059

I used his real average of 76, which is near sure to be low. Again, he’s decent even with 76s. But here he is at 100s. 

 

Maric 2
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		223,800
1	33	223,800
2	72	223,800
3	123	223,800
4	100.0	265,800
5	100.0	327,561	61,761	61,761
6	100.0	385,731	58,170	119,931
7	100.0	418,672	32,941	152,872
8	100.0	443,089	24,417	177,289
9	100.0	461,189	18,099	195,389
10	100.0	474,605	13,416	208,805

So, dang! I can see why he is popular. 

 

Not even vaguely cows but still of interest

 

Freijah
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		370,400
1	109	370,400
2	100	370,400
3	68	370,400
4	92.3	395,700
5	92.3	408,509	12,809	12,809
6	92.3	414,611	6,102	18,911
7	92.3	429,902	15,291	34,202
8	92.3	441,236	11,334	45,536
9	92.3	449,637	8,401	53,937
10	92.3	455,865	6,228	60,165

Paid for 69 and getting 92. Slow money being made. Seems fine, if you started with him. Probably ok if disappointing even if you brought him in for his 68. I think, and remember I am just guessing here, he’s more an 85 average guy who will have some ups and downs. I can imagine culling him anytime there is an urgent need for cash, but really see no rush. 

 

Gawn
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		688,900
1	129	688,900
2	67	688,900
3	88	688,900
4	94.7	619,000
5	94.7	569,310	-49,690	-49,690
6	94.7	544,719	-24,590	-74,281
7	94.7	529,441	-15,278	-89,559
8	94.7	518,117	-11,325	-100,883
9	94.7	509,723	-8,394	-109,277
10	94.7	503,500	-6,222	-115,500

 

As if we all were not already watching his price and scores and health. Possible huge bargain, Also he may really average a lot less than last year. Only a bargain if his price goes back up. 

 

M Crouch
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		568,600
1	84	568,600
2	143	568,600
3	47	568,600
4	91.3	540,600
5	91.3	525,208	-15,392	-15,392
6	91.3	490,937	-34,272	-49,663
7	91.3	485,150	-5,786	-55,450
8	91.3	480,861	-4,289	-59,739
9	91.3	477,682	-3,179	-62,918
10	91.3	475,325	-2,357	-65,275

Only of interest to the tech league, I hope!  Bleeping heck. 

 

Neale
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		645,900
1	41	645,900
2	133	645,900
3	71	645,900
4	100.0	584,800
5	100.0	568,001	-16,799	-16,799
6	100.0	540,947	-27,054	-43,853
7	100.0	533,725	-7,222	-51,075
8	100.0	528,372	-5,353	-56,428
9	100.0	524,404	-3,968	-60,396
10	100.0	521,463	-2,941	-63,337

Assuming he goes at 100 from here on out.  But he’d have to do better to be worth bringing in? He’s almost 32, so is well into the age bracket of sudden permanent average drops. Also could pull himself back together. I have no idea which. 

 

Will Ashcroft
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		441,200
1	73	441,200
2	104	441,200
3	136	441,200
4	104.3	463,800
5	104.3	496,158	32,358	32,358
6	104.3	520,290	24,133	56,490
7	104.3	524,166	3,876	60,366
8	104.3	527,039	2,873	63,239
9	104.3	529,169	2,130	65,369
10	104.3	530,747	1,579	66,947

Ran the numbers only because I own him. If he goes at 104 until his bye I will be most happy. 

 

Finn Callahan
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	140	441,600
1	104	441,600
2		441,600
3	55	441,600
4	95.0	459,800
5	95.0	453,220	-6,580	-6,580
6	95.0	444,361	-8,860	-15,439
7	95.0	455,494	11,133	-4,306
8	95.0	463,746	8,252	3,946
9	95.0	469,863	6,117	10,063
10	95.0	474,397	4,534	14,597

Unless you trade him out to lock in the cash loss, his price is very likely to bounce right back. Players who have both high and low scores often make more money than those who are flat, as the highs can bunch and cause a huge spike in price. With the last bye, I plan to just hold him until then or his price spikes. Very unlikely he is anyone’s biggest problem to deal with and really, I don’t even think he is a problem. 

 

Will Day
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	148	491,300
1	77	491,300
2	76	491,300
3	103	502,500
4	101.0	483,900
5	101.0	482,589	-1,311	-1,311
6	101.0	492,680	10,091	8,780
7	101.0	499,275	6,595	15,375
8	101.0	504,164	4,888	20,264
9	101.0	507,788	3,624	23,888
10	101.0	510,473	2,686	26,573

Paid for 91, getting 101, and about to have a good run of fixtures. Ok, the 148 didn’t count so getting 85, but I’m not seeing any reason to panic. His price could go way up after R7 & R8 are past, and anyone who owns him knew he had a tough early run. 

 

 

 Dodgy Advice: There are sooo many money makers to bring in, plus B Smith if you don’t own him, I’d be way tempted to boost this round. 

I would be disinclined to sidewise a premium, even if underperforming. Costs a trade and a chance to bring in a money maker. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!