Cow Talk R9 –> R10

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

As we have all already noticed, this week is rather rough for downgrade options, but full of players looking like they need to be downgraded. Lovely. 

How do we deal with that? 

Carefully. We can only choose who to bring in from the players that exist, so when there are no good plans, we are stuck with not good plans. 

Oh! Oh! Is now when we invite Mr. Clever in?!? 

Mr Clever is not our friend.

But what if we need a fourth for Bridge and he is the only person available?

Bridge? How the heck do you play Bridge little mate?

Slowly, and with the aid of a card holder thingy. Bidding is ok, but the play of the hand is harder when your body is smaller than the cards. 

You did ask. 

Well, even in such dire circumstances, we need to be careful of inviting Mr Clever around. Better to invite Mr. Calculated Risk. 

You mean Mr. Dodgy?

Yeah, Mr. Dodgy, Mr. Calculated Risk; they are just really Mr. Clever wearing a false moustache. 

 Ok, Enough already. Let’s go with Mr. Creative ok? Who is not quite the same, I think and if you disagree, well, um, then you do. 

Anyways, There are not that many ways to be creative since we all have the same players. One way is to downgrade early, which can get you into a horrible cycle of always going early. Another way is to find players who have very low Breakevens but who cost more to use as short term cash generators. The problem with them is they can fail horribly.  If they were worth keeping we would already have them, or at least know of them. Someone with a good week or two who we have no reason to think can have a few more good weeks, well, they might not have more good weeks. And if they are already expensive, it is hard to make $100,000 or more on them. Another way is to get mid-pricers that you hope will be worth keeping. Same issue though, are they really that good?  Last option is to give up and take a loophole player; DPP for $99k. Hard to justify before they beys, much easier after the byes. 

Are you going to suggest anyone? 

Maybe in dodgy advice. I have no unique insights on this, and there are other people on the site who can give good advice on those guys. 

So, that’s it?

Nah, that was all a lead in to a concept I talk about every year around now. I call it the “Hotel California” effect. 

Does anyone else call it that? 

Not that I know of….anyways, I need to call it something….

Anyways, once we have fewer trades than players, which is probably everyone, every time we make a trade, a player is locked into our teams. Say I have 21 trades at the start of the round. That means ten player are already locked into my team (31-21=10)  If I make three trade this round, there are now 13 players locked into my team. (31-18=13).  Looking at my team there are 13 players I will be fine owning at the end of the season. A few more really, assuming no injuries. But that does mean that when I bring someone in, if they are, say  Saad El-Hawli, well, can I expec tto make enough money from him he will get traded out? Well…..not really. So, that means even though he is pretty meh, odds are I will be stuck with him. He seems to have a job, probably, so playing is good, DPP is good. I have to bring in someone to downgrade and he is the least awful guy I can find. 

You said no advice!

I am not suggesting bringing him in, I’m sharing my possible mistake! I do not advocate bringing in SEH, I just can’t think of anyone better for me. He may never actually get on field for me, I sort of hope not. If I had to put my downgrade option on the field I would pick someone else. 

Is there anyone you advocate bringing in as a downgrade option?

Nope. Not one. Like, ick. We are all stuck picking someone dodgy, and we just need to pick someone who is likely to fail in a way we are ok with. For me, I will live with low scores and DPP. Maybe no scores and DPP, but I think he will play a fair amount. Odds are he never scores well enough to be in my best18

You hope

Um, sort of…anyways, the downgrade situation highlights the Hotel California effect, since anyone we bring in is more and more likely to be in our final teams, so this is a good time to start remembering that.  

 

Defenders

Z Reid:  Wow, 133! I for sure would not trade him until that is out of his three round average, barring something wacky. Given he is 23, I do wonder how long he can be kept. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1	45	119,900
2	36	119,900
3	88	119,900
4		163,100
5	104	163,100
6	38	220,700
7	90	264,700
8	102	298,400
9	133	322,700
10	79.5	382,100
11	79.5	421,401	39,301	39,301
12	79.5	440,531	19,130	58,431
13	79.5	431,060	-9,471	48,960
14	79.5	424,056	-7,004	41,956
15	79.5	418,877	-5,179	36,777
16

 

Trainor:  That 46 is a big pain. Still worth holding for more cash, and a spike score could really help. Which is true for anyone, but he has done them before. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		133,500
1	50	133,500
2	24	133,500
3	90	133,500
4	82	156,200
5	80	201,400
6	2	259,500
7	66	264,200
8	82	260,800
9	46	259,500
10	58.0	277,400
11	58.0	287,248	9,848	9,848
12	58.0	283,936	-3,312	6,536
13	58.0	286,784	2,848	9,384
14
15	58.0	288,890	2,106	11,490
16	58.0	290,448	1,557	13,048

 

Prior:  Nice timing on the spike score. Likely to be worth holding for two more rounds, which get to the R12 byes, so maybe again, and, well, have to see how he does. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		169,200
1	50	169,200
2	57	169,200
3	78	169,200
4		163,100
5	54	163,100
6	92	235,500
7	43	273,000
8	57	285,500
9	93	296,300
10	65.5	304,200
11	65.5	320,090	15,890	15,890
12	65.5	335,592	15,503	31,392
13	65.5	334,917	-676	30,717
14	65.5	334,417	-500	30,217
15	65.5	334,048	-370	29,848
16

 

Bice: While his BE this round is high, it will probably come back down even with a meh score next round when that 49 goes out of his three round average. Better to sell this week then next, but if you hold might be a hold to his bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	52	113,500
2	96	113,500
3		113,500
4	124	113,500
5	89	203,400
6	79	286,100
7	101	340,400
8	49	370,800
9	71	375,800
10	82.6	375,300
11	82.6	366,984	-8,316	-8,316
12	82.6	375,679	8,695	379
13	82.6	387,240	11,562	11,940
14
15	82.6	395,790	8,550	20,490
16	82.6	402,113	6,323	26,813

 

Connor O’Sullivan:  He seems to be trending downwards. Might spike again, but might not. So helpful I know. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		148,700
1	48	148,700
2	88	148,700
3	77	148,700
4	103	203,900
5	42	268,200
6	54	295,400
7	95	306,400
8	48	310,500
9	49	317,300
10	67.1	319,300
11	67.1	308,570	-10,730	-10,730
12	67.1	309,072	502	-10,228
13	67.1	317,439	8,367	-1,861
14	67.1	323,626	6,187	4,326
15	67.1	328,201	4,575	8,901
16

 

Midfielders

 

M Reid:  AThe good news is he has lost so much from his peak he probably will not lose a lot more, so holding him for a spike score is ok. But hopefully he has already been sold. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		131,500
1	50	131,500
2	75	131,500
3	106	131,500
4	73	199,100
5	58	258,500
6	82	294,900
7	35	312,000
8	50	308,200
9	36	302,000
10	62.8	276,500
11	62.8	270,151	-6,349	-6,349
12	62.8	271,096	945	-5,404
13
14	62.8	283,616	12,520	7,116
15	62.8	292,875	9,259	16,375
16	62.8	299,722	6,847	23,222

 

Lindsay:  Seems a good hold while he slowly goes up in price. Not a need to hold, but looks fine to. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,500
1	86	158,500
2	78	158,500
3	9	158,500
4		193,400
5	48	193,400
6	55	202,000
7	78	198,700
8	56	227,000
9	71	251,700
10	60.1	276,500
11	60.1	287,079	10,579	10,579
12	60.1	296,724	9,644	20,224
13	60.1	299,055	2,331	22,555
14	60.1	300,779	1,724	24,279
15
16	60.1	302,053	1,275	25,553

 

Moraes:  Anyone still holding him might as well keep holding and hope. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2	52	113,500
3	94	113,500
4	43	113,500
5	42	166,800
6	30	201,800
7	55	199,900
8		204,100
9	24	204,100
10	48.6	198,900
11	48.6	203,404	4,504	4,504
12
13	48.6	203,896	493	4,996
14	48.6	215,108	11,211	16,208
15	48.6	223,399	8,291	24,499
16	48.6	229,530	6,131	30,630

 

Lalor:  I feel like selling before he drops more is the way to go. A spike is always possible but how likely is that? 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		203,500
1	74	203,500
2	39	203,500
3	45	203,500
4	112	220,759
5		248,300
6	70	248,300
7	46	283,800
8	46	310,700
9	61	301,700
10	61.6	290,500
11	61.6	289,265	-1,235	-1,235
12	61.6	295,250	5,985	4,750
13	61.6	299,952	4,702	9,452
14
15	61.6	303,428	3,477	12,928
16	61.6	305,999	2,571	15,499

 

Long:  

Last Week: Started slow and unsteady but has turned into a real Monster! Sweetums! His average is a little misleading price wise, since he seems to have a floor about 85 while playing full time, and will probably average better than that. 

This Week: I forgot to say “No Jinkx!” Dangit. Still think he is fine to hold until his bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	30	200,900
1	113	200,900
2	57	200,900
3		240,000
4	26	240,000
5	114	263,000
6	96	280,600
7	87	311,600
8	94	361,900
9	65	390,100
10	75.8	397,500
11	75.8	397,595	95	95
12	75.8	389,621	-7,974	-7,879
13	75.8	388,483	-1,139	-9,017
14
15	75.8	387,641	-842	-9,859
16	75.8	387,018	-623	-10,482

 

Gross:  Owners would be hopeful after his last match. He is still way to early in his growth phase to sell, but holding seems worthwhile. For a while with luck.  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2		113,500
3		113,500
4	51	113,500
5	82	113,500
6	11	113,500
7		147,500
8		147,500
9	46	147,500
10	47.5	170,400
11	47.5	172,143	1,743	1,743
12	47.5	189,545	17,402	19,145
13	47.5	203,076	13,531	32,676
14	47.5	213,082	10,006	42,682
15
16	47.5	220,482	7,400	50,082

 

Rucks

Flynn:   Not a bad a hold since the 53 will drop out after this round. His role and job security are uncertain. If I knew he was keeping his job, I’d hold him and wait for a spike. Not knowing that, well, do ya feel lucky mate?

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		261,900
1	87	261,900
2		261,900
3		261,900
4		261,900
5		261,900
6	141	261,900
7	105	261,900
8	53	341,100
9	80	384,900
10	93.2	389,500
11	93.2	387,893	-1,607	-1,607
12	93.2	404,450	16,558	14,950
13	93.2	422,522	18,072	33,022
14	93.2	435,886	13,364	46,386
15
16	93.2	445,769	9,883	56,269

 

Forwards

Hugo Garcia:  Another guy without a lot left to lose. Hold until his bye? Hold and hope? Use him? No real wrong answers now.  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		245,800
1	54	245,800
2	25	245,800
3	99	245,800
4	54	260,000
5	84	269,800
6	59	303,300
7	21	311,100
8	71	302,600
9	40	290,800
10	56.3	273,200
11	56.3	275,902	2,702	2,702
12	56.3	271,425	-4,477	-1,775
13
14	56.3	275,325	3,900	2,125
15	56.3	278,209	2,884	5,009
16	56.3	280,341	2,133	7,141

 

Levi Ashcroft:  Still nice and fieldable. His fate may depend on his score this week. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	87	221,700
5	90	249,100
6	89	277,400
7	68	322,500
8	99	347,800
9	77	370,800
10	78.0	381,800
11	78.0	394,471	12,671	12,671
12	78.0	394,571	100	12,771
13	78.0	395,086	515	13,286
14	78.0	395,467	381	13,667
15	78.0	395,748	282	13,948
16

 

Davidson:  Well….if he tears up the Bombers, that would help him make cash. Not losing it too fast….

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	39	113,500
2	72	113,500
3	129	113,500
4	54	189,800
5	61	252,100
6	82	293,200
7	51	303,700
8	46	310,400
9	55	309,000
10	65.4	295,400
11	65.4	291,926	-3,474	-3,474
12
13	65.4	297,941	6,015	2,541
14	65.4	307,000	9,059	11,600
15	65.4	313,699	6,699	18,299
16	65.4	318,653	4,954	23,253

 

Kako: Has a job, has DPP, Has  Job Has DPP, still gonna make money, hold on, hold on….Sure is growing slowly and steadily…. Warm body in the byes, warm body in the byes…..

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		149,500
1	62	149,500
2	34	149,500
3	62	149,500
4		163,100
5	38	163,100
6	55	191,700
7	49	210,200
8	60	218,300
9	30	234,200
10	48.8	234,500	300	300
11	48.8	234,665	165	465
12	48.8	229,820	-4,845	-4,380
13	48.8	234,515	4,695	315
14	48.8	237,987	3,472	3,787
15	48.8	240,554	2,567	6,354
16

 

Sam PP: Looks like prime trade out time. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,500
1	18	180,500
2	83	180,500
3	48	180,500
4	74	199,000
5	101	236,800
6	106	272,700
7	98	325,700
8	66	375,800
9	53	397,700
10	71.9	389,700
11	71.9	372,452	-17,248	-17,248
12
13	71.9	362,297	-10,155	-27,403
14	71.9	363,126	829	-26,574
15	71.9	363,739	613	-25,961
16	71.9	364,192	453	-25,508

 

Stone:  Did not play. 

Curtain: That 22 will really hurt him for a few more weeks. Hard to see holding. Again looking at going to Moo-Ron Mountain. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,600
1	26	158,600
2	82	158,600
3	90	158,600
4	65	204,500
5	42	254,900
6	48	274,600
7	41	271,400
8	73	258,700
9	22	263,200
10	54.3	254,600
11	54.3	254,201	-399	-399
12	54.3	245,665	-8,536	-8,935
13	54.3	253,627	7,962	-973
14	54.3	259,514	5,888	4,914
15
16	54.3	263,868	4,354	9,268

 

 

Dodgy Advice:  EveryoneI can think of is sooooo dodgy. Bergman, Jiath, Phillipou, Coleman. All just risky, risky, risky. I feel a little bad even suggesting them. 

Do not overpay for anyone. So many good players with falling or low prices. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!