Fallen Premiums – Round 12, 2025

The byes are here, and with that is the realisation cash-gen is absolutely cooked this year.

Defenders

Tom Stewart (GEE, $423k, (-$98k), 76 AVG, 87 BE) is both the definition of fallen premium and value selection, and finds a spot as our sole defender to discuss this week (albeit in detail). Firstly the kick-ins and defensive economy for Stewart has been eaten into, excluding the round 2 game against the Saints where Stewart got injured very early into proceedings, Stewart is averaging 32% of the kick-ins for the Cats. In 2023 the last full season where Stewart was utilised as an interceptor in defence, that number was at 42.8%. Fixture wise, going purely off DVP and looking strictly at the opposition, the Cats have the second easiest run for designated kickers. However diving deeper, I immediately notice that 7/14 games are at Kardinia Park (which I’ll get to in a moment), along with playing Eagles, North, Richmond (x2) and Essendon (x2). Since 2024, Stewart is averaging 105 points at KP compared to 93.3 points elsewhere (injury affected games have been removed). However since 2024, against those four teams I’ve highlighted, Stewart also averaged 105 points. With a few weeks off now nursing a knee injury, a 10 day long break heading into the Eagles clash, followed by the last bye, while Stewart getting managed is a risk, it’s not one I’d be expecting anytime soon. The bigger concern is the injury profile in general, but at the heavily discounted price, factoring in age, injury concern and less economy, I still do have the pick as being a great one to round out your defence, albeit with some risk, and without the ceiling of former seasons.

Backing it up…
Harry Sheezel, 517k, 168 BE
Lachie Whitfield, 566k, 147 BE
James Sicily, 465k, 143 BE
Connor Rozee, 531k, 131 BE

Midfielders

Jye Caldwell (EES, 429.2k, (-$77.1k), 91.8 AVG, 97 BE) when I was getting my team together in February, Jye Caldwell was a player on my watch list, which is a green flag for myself when even considering them as a trade-in target. There’s a 12 game sample size for Caldwell since 2024 with CBA’s over the 60% threshold I’ve magically given him, when hitting that mark he’s averaging 109.3 points, with only two sub-tons. There’s other way to also look at Caldwell’s scoring, since 2024 with TOG over 70% Caldwell is averaging 98.2 points, and if you make the threshold of CBA’s 40%, he’s averaging 103.9 points with a 16 game sample size. The biggest issue with the pick is the immediate fixture against Brisbane. In 2023 Caldwell had 71% CBA’s against the Lions at the Gabba and managed 56 points, and then in Round 24 last season, 64% CBA’s and 53 points, slightly concerning as that’s the exact fixture he has tonight. So having said all that, he does have a breakeven of 97, I personally believe the most logical move would be letting the hampered Dons get through what will be a tough game on the road, and gather some additional data on Caldwell. But at that price, I can’t blame anyone for jumping on the Caldwell pick this week.

Matt Rowell (GCS, $485.9k, (-$64.4k), 105 AVG, 45 BE) back to back 120’s and a very friendly price point has many considering the former number one pick. Last season Rowell started the season looking primed to finish top 8 before falling off a cliff the second half of the season. The three worst scores for Matty this season all came about due to attention, Adelaide utilised Peatling, Sydney deployed Rowbottom at stoppages and Lions likewise with Dunkley. The other subpar score (80 points) came against the Doggies up in Darwin, but IMO you don’t lose fans by dropping a sub-ton against the Doggies coalface. As for the remaining fixture, let’s have a look and see who can potentially be deployed as a nullifier at stoppages. Melbourne have Viney, Crows have Peatling, Lions have Dunkley, Carlton have Hewett, Port have Drew. I’ve excluded both Setterfield (ESS) and Atkins (GEE) as neither have narrowed in on anyone at stoppage in recent weeks. 5/12 games with potential attention, however let it be of note Carlton went after Anderson last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if most teams continued to zero in on Anderson.

As for stats, when Matty Rowell has 20+ touches, his average since the 2024 season is 114.3 points (24 game sample size), when he has 22+ touches, his average is 121.6 points (19 game sample size). Same timespan, when Rowell has 6+ tackles, his average is 107 points (25 game sample size), and when he registers 8+ tackles he’s going at an average of 109.5 points (18 game sample size). Since 2024, Rowell has had 9 games where he’s failed to register 80 points, here’s what they all have in common. Only a single one of those games he managed to have 21+ disposals, averaging 16.1 possessions in totality. He didn’t manage to have 10+ tackles in any of those games, averaging 5.8 tackles. Back to this season, the twenty three year old is largely a stoppage based player, and for his remaining fixture here’s how the teams measure up (1 = easiest, 18 = hardest stoppage based side). Fremantle (11th), Geelong (7th), GWS (18th), Melbourne (4th), Essendon (5th), Collingwood (16th), Adelaide (17th), Brisbane (15th), Richmond (1st), Carlton (13th), GWS (18th), Port Adelaide (14th). Ultimately, those fixtures don’t seem all that appealing, so let’s compare his averages against the top 9 easiest stoppage sides compared to the bottom 9, starting from 2024.
9 easiest sides: 109.8 average.
9 hardest sides: 93.6 average.
4/12 of the remaining GCS games will be against the top 9 easiest stoppage-based sides. The value is definitely there, do they cancel out the less than ideal fixture, and do you even think the fixture matters all that much to begin with?

Nick Daicos (COL, $536k, (-$95.4k), 107.4 AVG, 117 BE) champion player that is at an insane price-point. Has dealt with a few niggles this season, but had a massive game against North Melbourne in which he got through unhampered. If the Hawks midfield is to look as incompetent as they did against the Lions, getting drawn into the ball and not attacking the contest, expect a massive score for Nicky D. While on the other hand utilising FinnMag on Daicos which has proven effective in the past, could and should see another nullified week for non-owners. As a non-owner, I’m keeping it simple, Nick Daicos comes in on the one condition Finn isn’t named to start the game.

Limbo land…
Zak Butters, 586k, 196 BE
Andy Brayshaw, 623k, 176 BE
George Hewett, 558k, 149 BE

Rucks

Jarrod Witts (GCS, $490.6k, (-$90.7k), 103.4 AVG, 53 BE) after discussing Rowell, let’s get to another man with the same fixture, albeit with different implications on his scoring. This season against the ruckman deemed positive matchups for ruckman by DFSAustralia, Witts is averaging 124.2 points (5 game sample size), against the ruckman deemed negative (5 game sample size) Witts is averaging 82.6 points, he’s definitely no Tristan Xerri in that regard.

The remaining fixture:

Fremantle (Jackson & Darcy), Geelong (Stanley & Blicavs), bye, GWS (Briggs), Melbourne (Gawn), Essendon (Goldstein), Pies (Cameron), Adelaide (O’Brien), Brisbane (McInerney / Fort), Richmond (Nankervis), Carlton (De Koning), GWS (Briggs), Port (Sweet / Visentini). The fixture split works out to be 7/12 being positive matchups. Similar to Rowell, you’d really just have hoped for a couple more soft-kill matchups to really entice non-owners. Considering Witts has had an even split of positive/negative matchups thus far, and has managed a 103 average, I don’t mind the Witts play at all, if Sean Darcy is to miss again this week the play gets even better as I can’t see a world where the 32 year old doesn’t put a 120+ on Jackson’s head. A very interesting pick for your flex position, and one I’m considering myself.

Timberrr…
Lloyd Meek, 478k, 186 BE
Max Gawn, 732k, 164 BE
Tristan Xerri, 731k, 160 BE
Darcy Cameron, 552k, 152 BE

Forwards

Toby Greene (GWS, $372k, (-$54.4k), 85.3 AVG, 21 BE) even with a predominately inside mid role since round 6, Greene has only cracked the ton the one time this past weekend against the Blues. With Richmond and Port the next two games, along with the last bye the move here would be purely to have Greene as a F7, or a bye-flip cash grab. Saying that, I’d almost take the punt on Shannon Neale who has a breakeven of -33 and a date against the Eagles this week if I was going for the cash grab route (Angus Sheldrick another that caught my attention for similar reasoning).

Forward thinking…
Sam Darcy, 497k, 193 BE*
Jason Horne-Francis, 500k, 158 BE*
Ryan Maric, 483k, 154 BE
Jack Macrae, 517k, 152 BE*
Izak Rankine, 521k, 133 BE