Fallen Premiums – Round 15, 2024

As we near the end of Fallen Premiums for the 2024 season, we have a slightly different approach to this week’s edition. I’ve assembled tables with the remaining fixtures of the players to be discussed this week, (credit to DFSAustralia.com). And again, while DFS Australia utilises Fantasy stats, I do believe there is a high correlation between the scoring.

My SC team of glorified boot-shiners have somehow managed an overall of 144 this week, and I’m quite keen on Charlie Curnow who will be discussed below. Best of luck everyone in the final bye round and for the remainder of the season. If you have any questions I’ll try to respond in the comments!

Defenders

Steven May ($452k, 88.4 AVG, 78 BE) & Christian Salem ($437.4k, 80.2 AVG, 53 BE) were my initial two defenders to bring attention to, and then Freo Tragic brought attention to Adam Saad who’s definitely a great shout as well. As for May or Salem, I’d personally slightly lean towards May, who if you take out the injury effected 12 points v the Hawks is averaging 95.3 points and has been relatively consistent barring the stinker 23 points vs the Eagles.

Adam Saad ($411k, 80.6 AVG, 49 BE) removing the injury affected score in round 5 is averaging 88.4 points for the season. The added benefit here is there’s no real tag-risk, and there was looking to be extra economy in the Carlton backline with McGovern injured. However, Gov has been removed from the Carlton injury list (after being listed as TBC last week). I still believe Saad to be a nice D7, but not one I’d have on-field if I could avoid it.

Elliot Yeo ($514.5k, 107.9 AVG, 79 BE) who’s largely been fixture-proof has an incredibly friendly run to finish the season. The fitness & medical department at the Eagles have been phenomenal this season, and their once horrid injury-list is no more. If you personally believe Yeo can stay fit, or if you’re rocking 4-5+ trades with a completed team, Yeo is definitely one I’d be targeting to finish off your backline, or as a D7/M9 swing.

Midfielders

Starting with everyone’s favourite omnivore, Matt Rowell ($541.8k, 113.8 AVG, 123 BE) the benefit here is the fact that he shares the midfield with Touk Miller & Noah Anderson who in almost all cases receive attention first. In the five games Rowell has played at PFS stadium this season, he’s averaging 134.8 points, and much like Gold Coast’s form away from home, Rowell is averaging 100.8 points away from PFS stadium. 4/10 remaining games are at PFS, and if Gold Coast can look to get a few wins on the road (against the likes of North, Eagles, Tigers), there’s no doubt the scoring away from home can trend upward.

What becomes apparent when having a look at Carlton’s fixtures is that you definitely want to target a Blue or two. Chillo brought attention to George Hewett ($417.6k, 89.8 AVG, 59 BE) who is currently at a heavy discount, and unlike Walsh is one that won’t be receiving any attention. The CBA’s for Hewett have been relatively consistent all season, even while Adam Cerra was in the side. The issue with Hewett has largely been his underwhelming scoring. A five round average of 74 points doesn’t inspire much hope. However, what I do like about Hewett is those fixtures. Could be a nice POD M9, but I’d personally rather Connor Rozee for the same price.

Speaking of Carlton, I’d  also like to mention Sam Walsh ($548.8k, 111.9 AVG, 122 BE) who is quite the popular selection. The biggest concerns with Walsh comes from his horrendous disposal efficiency (at times) and the attention he receives from opposition players. Patrick Cripps ($551.9k, 106.2 AVG, 144 BE) who as a Supercoach selection has gone largely under the radar also deserves a mention. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Crippa is the one that takes advantage of the softer fixture draw on the run home.

Connor Rozee ($418.9k, 90.6 AVG, 130 BE) has found himself at bargain basement pricing, and while the breakeven is high, let’s not forget Rozee was averaging 105.6 points up til his 1 week turnaround hamstring strain. There is a slight tag risk with Rozee, but with how vulnerable Zak Butters has been to a tag, you’d think coaches don’t try to get too fancy. If you can get the Port skipper as an M9, I wouldn’t overthink it.

Zach Merrett ($577.6k, 117.5 AVG, 115 BE) will also get a mention coming off the bye. The only concern with the Dons captain comes from the potential tags that loom, however if anyone is equipped to deal with a tag and score points it is Zerrett. IMO he’s the pick of the bunch, albeit the most expensive

Rucks

Forwards

Does anything stand-out when looking at Charlie Curnow ($448.3k, 89.4 AVG, 100 BE) & Carlton’s upcoming schedule? The two-time Coleman Medalist has only dipped below 70 points once this season, but hasn’t quite found that 170+ ceiling he hit twice in 2023. I’ll keep this short, Curnow was always penciled in for me this week, and nothings changed. A great price for a consistent forward who no doubt will find a few ceiling scores on the run home. An added bonus is Curnow going behind the ball when Carlton is trying to maintain a lead, something that further separates him as a pick from Harry McKay (who I also rate as a POD).

I’ll also quickly mention Jeremy Cameron ($420k, 86.4 AVG, 58 BE) who’s role has been a little all over the place this season. Pushing up further than usual, and even playing pure wing. Jezza hasn’t hit the ton in his last five games, and has only snagged more than a single goal against the Swannies in that same time. Cameron’s transitional scoring in his first 7 games (58.3 points) and last 5 games (56.6 points) have both remained almost identical, however his stoppage scoring has taken a dip (first 7 games; 29.9 points, last 5 games; 19 points). Not a pick for me, especially with Curnow there at a similar price.

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