Given the plethora of discounted premiums currently available and the early onset of upgrade season (due to an unfortunate injury to Nathan O’Driscoll and a few other relevant players), the time to target some of these fallen premiums is now!
Defenders
Luke Ryan (FRE, $556.5k, (-$71.8k), 94 AVG, 118 BE) 134 points against the Doggies has resulted in a few people fairly interested in this selection as Ryan finds himself with a hefty 71k discount on his starting price. The kick-ins have largely remained Ryan’s, but my main issue with the pick is just how much the 2x All Australian’s scoring dipped as a result of the change to a more direct style post-bye last season effected Ryan’s scoring. Heading into the bye Ryan was boasting an average of 129.9 points, which then significantly dipped to 102.1 points for the run home. For those in the market for a defender in that 500-550k range, I do have teammate Jordan Clark ahead of him, but I can’t fault anyone for being proactive and jumping on a Luke Ryan in hopes he can flirt with scoring similar to the first half of last season.
Backing it up…
Sam Flanders, 642k, 229 BE
Jordan Ridley, 553k, 206 BE
Tom Stewart, 484k, 164 BE
Dan Houston, 563k, 153 BE*
Dayne Zorko, 617k, 141 BE
Midfielders
Lachie Neale (BRL, $577.6k, (-$68.3k), 93.8 AVG, 145 BE) a roller coaster for Neale owners thus far, untagged Neale is averaging 130+, however with a tag it’s a completely different story. The ceiling and proven scoring history speaks for itself, so let’s take a look at the fixtures until the Lions have their bye in R16. Dogs, Pies (Perryman could play off him), Saints (Windhager), Suns, Roos (Parker?), Dees (Sparrow?), Hawks, Dons (Durham), Crows (Peatling?), GWS (Bedford), Cats (Atkins). The immediate fixtures appear fairly safe, I can also see Ross throwing Windhager on a McCluggage type if he’s also having his way with the game, along with a few teams that have seldom deployed tags (North, Crows). The biggest perk is that those hard tags from an Atkins and Bedford will be coming during best 18 where there’s a chance the 2x Brownlow Medalist’s scores could drop off / not hurt as much as Best 22. Dunkley seems and is the safer pick, albeit (even with that massive score in R0) with a lesser ceiling IMO. Definitely one to consider, and I can’t fault anyone for chasing the upside with the Neale pick, there’s also potential that opposition coaches do shift tags around to stop the others in the coal face (McCluggage and big Ashcroft both copped tags in 2024).
Christian Petracca (MEL, $495.5k, (-$60.7k), 87 AVG, 125 BE) I’ll say upfront, I was very bullish on this selection in pre-season, but opted for Brayshaw and Dawson instead. This is the first time since before Covid was a thing, that Tracca finds himself sub 500k, and is all but guaranteed to get FWD DPP next week, needing only 4.6% forward time this week against the Dons for it to be granted. Tagged to a 98 in Round 1 against Bedford and GWS and a strong outing in pre-season, I was fully expecting Petracca to burst out of the gate, however what we’ve seen is a shambolic Dees side and the 2021 Norm Smith Medalist yet to register a ton. The main selling points of this pick comes from the price, the proven history, the forward DPP and the incoming fixtures. Essendon, Fremantle (@MCG), Richmond, Eagles. I personally have the Dees going going on a 4 game win streak here, and am looking at bringing everyone’s favourite Instagram chef into my side this week as I foresee a nice score against the Dons this week (let’s see how poorly this ages). However, with a breakeven of 125, it would be wise to wait a week and further assess both the Dees and Petracca himself, but I won’t blink an eye at anyone also looking at grabbing the great man this week.
Limbo land…
Patrick Cripps, 3 votes, 534k, 180 BE
Connor Rozee, 511k, 166 BE
Jack Steele, 585k, 165 BE
Isaac Heeney, 562k, 165 BE
Zak Butters, 649k, 162 BE
Luke Davies-Uniacke, 525k, 147 BE
Josh Dunkley, 604k, 143 BE
Rucks
Kieren Briggs (GWS, $473k, (-$43.3k), 70.3 AVG, 77 BE) at a healthy discount, the number one ruck at what I fully expect to be a team that finishes top 4, Kieren Briggs is definitely a POD play with some merit. With Marc Pittonet also close to full fitness, TDK as a selection could be in some strife, and with that, running Briggs at Flex in the mean time as insurance could almost make you out to be a genius. My biggest issue from the pick is even with HO dominance, Briggs only managed 107 points against the Eagles (and for those that do opt to run him at flex, being limited with flexibility). For those that still have Flynn at R2, Max Gawn is the one I’d personally be looking at, but Briggs for 100k cheaper is a completely valid play.
Timberrr…
Tristan Xerri, 604k, 179 BE
Rowan Marshall, 564k, 160 BE
Forwards
Jason Horne-Francis (PTA, $495.6k, (-$41.4k), 94.8 AVG, 62 BE) during debate with Gunboat Diplomacy last week, I noted that JHF is very much a roller coaster and not a consistent scorer, and JHF made me out to look like Nostradamus by scoring 153 points. Still at sub-500k, in-fact losing money after his big score, JHF is a completely fine trade-in for those in need of a forward, and for those that do prefer a more stable scorer, Petracca as discussed above at near identical prices could also be the one you lean toward instead.
Forward Thinking…
Dylan Moore, 474k, 143 BE
Whilst it certainly sucks having a effected player. I’m starting to think a heavy population of taggers is good for the game. Adds another layer of stratergy. Having a tagger here and there was really annoying, but with so many operating now early on in the season this has made trading in player extra complex.
Most of the premos are overpriced at the beginning of the season and normally have a pretty high BE, I would expect most of them to drop during the first few weeks. Would be nice if they came out RD1 and averaged 130+ for the first five six rounds
You’re making petracca sound really tempting haha
I was going to play it safe with my will day replacement and go jordan dawson (I was tossing up between him and brayshaw all preseason).
But now thinking gamble on petracca with the assumption he becomes a forward which then allows me to move SDK to tom stewart.
I’ll be there with you
Going to find it very hard to not bring in T Stewart next week. Maybe not Top 6, but won’t be far off and at $450ish k will be excellent value
He’s locked in for mine as long as he gets through this week unscathed
Will consider Petracca if Rankine out
Cheers
Why is Sheezel not considered a fallen premo? Cheers