Hi Everybody!
When the team picker came out, I went in and did a quick first draft of players I liked and fiddled a bit until there was maybe enough cash left over to cover cows. No checking byes or anything past what I already knew, and in a few cases a quick look at that player’s history. I wanted to get my first thoughts down before I did any form of research and/or was influenced by other people’s thoughts. Of course that means I may have added someone who won’t be fit or has issues I missed, but, easy enough to take someone out! I am sure I have missed an obvious pick or three, but easy to add.
Is this useful? No idea! Maybe to spark discussions, but also maybe at the end of they year to go back and see how many of these thoughts turned out to be correct. If I end up being influenced out of them and they turned out to have been good, well, I learned something. Or, maybe the other way.
Defenders
Harry Sheezel: I feel like he is obvious. Great player, young and likely to get better, and while he might not do as well as last year I feel like he will at least be close. Pretty much a solid premium in defense.
James Sicily: Known quantity, under 30, barely, and at a lower price for what he might do. I’m writing this and not feeling that sure I’ll want him but at the same time he has potential to overperform and I would be surprised if he fell off a cliff. Still, I did pick him when looking over the other options so writing down what I really did. Already with the second thoughts….
Callum Mills: Far underpriced for what he could do. Is he healthy? No idea! If so he seems pretty obvious but I’d not be surprised if there is something I don’t know about him. Just went on price v upside.
Midfield
The Bont: He will be in my team assuming nothing wacky happens between now and first bounce. Or however that works with the round zero thing. Blech. I mean, reliable, not old, could drop off and still be top ten and could even go up a bit.
Zac Butters: Possibly more reliable a pick than The Bont, since he is a lot younger, and has more upside.
Nick Diacos: Again, seems safe and has upside and way young.
Connor Rozee: Good, young, undervalued after a rough season.
Clayton Oliver: Everyone knows he is priced way under what he has done in the past. Nobody knows if his mind and body are up for returning to what he has done in the past. I find it hard to think he’ll do any worse than last season. Say we start with him and he goes at 85 for a while, well, sell after a big score or his bye? Paying about 85 to get about 85 is far from the worst thing that can happen. The main loss would be who you did not get instead, and who knows what that cost would be. I would like him to be worth a punt. We will get more information before we have to decide and hopefully that will clarify his situation. The upside is pretty big compared to the downside, as far as we know now.
Rucks
Tristan Xerri: While I am aware big jumps are often followed by falls, I feel like 119 is sustainable can could even be improved on.
Tim English: I suspect he is underpriced by 10ish. Just entering his prime as a ruck. Seems safeish? There could well be a pick with a better upside, but i am not sure who and English has done it before. I suspect last season was about his floor and we already know his ceiling is around 20 points over what he did last year.
Forwards
Jason Horne-Francis: If he does what he did last year he’ll be a top forward and he could do better. Pretty obvious.
Jack Macrae: He will be analyzed to death I’m sure. Simple me thinks he can safely go for 85-105 if played in the mids and not the sub, and he is priced at 73, so, easy. He has something to prove too, and the Saints did not bring him in to be on the bench or play out of his best position.
Bailey Smith: Just a smidge cheaper than Macrae and also seems safe for 85-105. New team is likely to play him, and he also has something to prove. He is 24, which is a good year to break out. Was hurt of course, so who knows? But I feel better trying and failing with him than not trying, at least as of now.
Caleb Daniel: I suspect Caleb Daniel may be the locky-est of locks this season. Priced at 50ish and likely to go 90-110+ as the Roos kick-in taker person. He is really good at what his role needs and that role scores well in supercoach. For the Roos, better than well.
Sir Not Appearing In This Post
Sam Flanders: I do not feel good paying what he costs without seeing him do it again. Loved paying unders for him, not someone I want to risk paying overs for.
Max Gawn: I feel like he will miss games and score less and I still might have him if there were not other good options. At his price I don’t think he will overperform enough for me to hate not starting with him.
Lloyd Meek: Tempted by him, but not as much as the other two as of now.
Everyone Else: There are a lot of options. Lots of good ones. We have no idea who the real cows are yet and how they break down position-wise will matter a lot. We are not even up to the pre-season so all the speculation is, um, speculative.
Music of the Post: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21dBlN8AiFQ
Thanks for reading!
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Nice write up FD!
For Sicily, I am curious to see how new recruits Barrass and Battle shuffle around the Hawthorn backline.
Sicily spent a decent time forward last season, which raises questions and if that becomes more permanent or if he stays back with Barrass now acting as key defender giving Sicily more opportunity to move around and play off half back
Just to this point re Sicily, especially until Mitch Lewis comes back (likely mid to late season), and now with Dear having a back stress issue, I do think Sic is a near lock to start in the forward line. If these two issues weren’t relevant, and he was almost certain to play as the 3rd key defender, Sic would be locked in my side.
I second this, feel it’s inevitable that either Sicily or Battle starts fwd, and I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Sic Dawg. The play might be to start without him, and instead to target him once the Hawks key fwd reinforcements arrive. The cherry on top would be him gaining DPP.