The OUTs probably do not need much attention this week. Most are obvious as they will not be playing on the weekend, either through injury or Bye commitments. The latter category only contains two players. Of these, Matt Carroll is a SC spud and if it helps your side in any way, just do it. The second of these is Harry Sheezel, someone most of us have considered a SC gun in the past. I can only presume that the carnage of the the last couple of weeks means it is one of only a few ways you can upgrade your team to full 18 minimum, and that Sheez doesn’t figure in your top 6-8 defenders anymore. If you check out our current poll, it would suggest that a lot of you coaches are not rating him for various reasons, not the least of which is his inconsistent role. FWIW I think I will be making that same choice to lose him as a bye player and replace him with a live body as I only have 16 at present, (although I just saw Elijah Tsatas’ with a green dot and he was not in my calculations).
There are a further four players on the list who are not on the bye, Riley Bice, Caiden Cleary, Luke Trainor and Max Hall. Of these I feel Bice is one that could stay and help out if you are sitting on the fence. His BE is 84 and his ave is 78 and if he attains the ave he will only lose about $2.6K. If he achieves his last three round average (65), he will lose roughly $8.4k and that is not too much in the scheme of things if he is worth 65 valuable points on your field. Factor in he averages 59 at the SCG this year and the Crows going in tall probably means more ground ball than usual which usually helps the Sydney half backs.
As for Cleary, he lost $9k last week, but now his BE is lower than his season average so he may be worth keeping for two more games until his bye. That would be a structure agenda for your team though. I have him and need him for those two weeks, so he stays, but have no problem with any of you turfing him this week if you have better options. No need for any analysis of Trainor and Hall as they are in a similar boat and lost money last week and will lose more this week so it makes sense to use them while they still have some currency.
The two biggest trade INs of the week are symptomatic of the rookie season we are having. For the Tuesday poll I calculated 44 rookies that are now not available, so it is obvious why people are jumping on early, especially in the next few weeks when we are desperate for a warm body no matter how little data we have to process the trade. 20k coaches have jumped on Essendon defender, Angus Clarke, after just one match, although it was a good one. How likely is he to kick three again and roam freely up and down the ground for a 97 point rising star game? We can only hope.
Similarly, Campbell Gray is a 32K popular trade in despite us not really knowing if he will retain his spot once Noah Balta is back next week. He showed some great skills last week and we can only hope that Yze considers that when picking next week’s side. He has been a swingman in the twos so hopefully he slots in somewhere to give us a bit of continuity.
Without knowing everyone’s sides, it is hard to analyse why three of the top ten trade INs come in for one week and disappear the next. The low BE of Jackson and Sinclair (42 and 68 respectively) explains it in their cases as they are quality picks and worth getting before a price hike, and they have to miss one of the next five weeks whoever they are. Sean Darcy is training and said to be back this week and we know Jacko scores fewer points with Shrek in the side. Just saying ! In the case if NWM, you could wait until after his bye as his price is unlikely to change much with a BE of 118.
The Zach Merrett, Nick Martin and Max Holmes picks are pretty regulation for the byes and for our teams. Their BE suggest they won’t be any cheaper soon and they share the last bye giving you three players to cover all of the next four games, while sorting out the other issues along the way, and making sure you get best 18 for round 16.
Jordan Dawson almost fits this category with his low BE (62) and 109 average suggesting he will rise in price, so it is a good time to nab him for premo coverage over the next three rounds before his bye, still giving you time adjust the rest of the side during this period. Just a little caveat however, given his importance to Adelaide’s ball movement, I don’t see a world where a glove like Jordan tag isn’t stuffing up our plans at the SCG this week.
Young Tiger mid, Kane McAuliffe, is one all categories of coaches in the top 1%, 5% and 10% as well as overall, see the value in, especially as a cover player. Still owning a handy -22 BE after three games and a very handy average of 81 over that time, including a couple of 90s in his last two, coaches are obviously happy to part with the extra dollars for the short term boost in points they hope to gain. His round 14 bye is handy for me as I’m stacked there, and the potential to provide cheap cover is tempting. However, I feel his next three games against GWS, Sydney and the Doggies will provide a tougher test than his last three which included the Weagles and North. Do we have many (any) other alternatives?
At the end of the day we have to try and get 18 on the field each week so I wish you all luck in achieving that, and for those who have planned well, I sincerely hope that not too many acts of (SC) God step in your way to glory over these difficult by rounds.
I love your musing on the data, they provide good insight and often suggest ideas to me.
Cheers TT, as long as someone gets something from it , I’m happy to keep it going.
Cheers JimmyDee
Tough week for trades. Other potential bye coverage players for consideration.
-Xavier O’Halloran
-Kai Lohmann
-Isaac Keeler
-Toby Greene
Last week left last minute trade thinking (Keh ?) Tsatas could be a late in, wasn’t so traded in Simpson.
Apologies in advance to Richmond supporters this week…….