It’s getting to the point of the year where a lot of people are starting to think about what everyone’s best and worst picks for the year were, so I thought I’d start us off with a special edition of Movers & Shakers based on season-long moving and shaking, rather than short-term form.
LEGEND: Player Name (Other Position) (Club, Current Price, Season Starting Price, 2021 Average, 2020 Average)
DEFENDERS
Callum Mills (SYD, $561,300, $544,800, 112, 101)
A move into the midfield has seen Mills’ numbers explode this season, with his average effective disposals up from 14.8 to 20.7 per game, and his contested possession count nearly double from 6.2 to 11.1 per game.
Jake Lloyd (SYD, $522,800, $656,400, 105, 122)
Still a very respectable 105 average for the Swans’ rebounder, but not the 120+ that people paid up for at the start of the season.
MIDFIELDERS
Darcy Parish (ESS, $689,500, $465,800, 123, 87)
Was viewed by many as the best midfielder in the 2015 draft (the same draft class as Clayton Oliver), and has shown why since his move into the Bombers’ engine room earlier in the year. With scores of 162, 107, 115, 134, 152, 136, 166, 115, 121, and 190 since then, I’m not sure what else to say but wow.
Patrick Cripps (CAR, $430,100, $523,700, 86, 98)
Has been playing very injured this season, and it’s shown. Will present as tremendously good value for money should he get back to his best down the track, but will enough people keep him off their ‘never again’ lists?
RUCKS
Sean Darcy (FRE, $599,200, $420,100, 114, 78)
In hindsight, a far better value option than the Flynn/Meek/Hunter combination that I started with this year (don’t remind me); not playing Round 1 obviously kept him out of most people’s considerations, but at 23 and very much on the way up, he has to be a contender for next year.
Max Gawn (MEL, $605,800, $751,400, 123, 140)
Still the highest-scoring ruck by total points (and second by average) in the game, but nearly 20 fewer points per week than what people paid for is quite a steep drop to say the least.
FORWARDS
Jack Ziebell (NTH, $554,000, $257,900, 114, 48)
From a starting price of just over $250K to being the number one SC forward in the game, starting picks don’t come much better than this.
Michael Walters (FRE, $531,100, $326,000, 64, 99)
I haven’t seen enough Fremantle games this year to say whether Walters’ drop off has been due to old age or a change of role, but it’s been a big one.
Who were your best and worst starting picks this year? Let us know in the comments below!
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Switched back and forth between Caleb Daniel and Mills at least half a dozen times in the week before round 1. Needless to say I chose….poorly.
Thanks Salamander, however any Cripps talk come next year will give me a mild case of PTSD.
Really regret not hopping on Parish, knew it was a matter of time before he broke out but also thought the same last year when he didn’t…
I feel like Gawn’s average of 140 last year was scaled up a bit due to shorter games, glad I started with him although he hasn’t been his usual prolific self.
Started Cripps and still have him, started Phillips who I traded last week.
After Rd 1 I traded Rowell and Danger to Mills and Walsh which boosted me very nicely in the early rounds
Anyone else think Matt Rowell can shake things up from here? Has had game by game improvement since returning– $400k for 100+ pts the rest of the season?
He’s been slowly getting more TOG and scoring higher.
Not a bad pick given the price, but hasn’t shown anything to scream great pick / not grabbing a Tay Adams instead (funds pending)
What about Tim Kelly? $395k averaging 86 and has played a couple since returning from injury getting better each week. Was averaging 97 before he was injured. Averaged 93, 103, 96 last 3 years without missing a game
Eagles and Kelly have totally lost their s$&t
At this point anybody who doesn’t have Gawn will be dropping points but it’s nowhere near as bad as seasons past. In fact I don’t even think Gawn is a must-have the way he was last year. The likes of NicNat, Goldstein, Darcy, and Hickey have been more than adequate as PODs and if you have one of those 4 instead you’re probably doing ok. Upgrading from them to Gawn is a luxury trade which would be crazy to say the last few years!
Going with Hickey instead of Gawn has left me short just shy of 500 total points up until this round but the 500K price differential between the two at the start of the season has more than made up for the lost pts and allowed for much better investment elsewhere.
I went with Grundy/Hickey/Flynn at the start and couldn’t be happier. The 500 points is reduced a bit with Flynn at R3 for rds 6 & 11 (unfortunately 2 of his 3 lowest scores).
I thought Gawn was overpriced by 20 points and Hickey underpriced by 30 points. I was right about Gawn and underestimated Hickey. To me, Gawn and Grundy were equal in probable outcome so went with the $100k cheaper option.
Had always planned to trade up to Gawn when the difference was around $150 but with Hickey’s form it was never a priority. Side-swapped Grundy to Gawn with Grundys injury (gained me approx 200 points through the byes and I was gambling on Grundy being out longer).
That Grundy/Hickey/Flynn trio was basically the perfect ruck setup IMO. Would probably have returned max bang for buck up until this point in the season.
Probably my best starting choice. Definitely in terms of uniqueness.
I know its easy in hindsight, but Hickey was at worse a 80ppg scorer when the #1 ruck, probably closer to 90ppg. The question was role and health. He started as the Swans #1 with poor competition (Naismith was LTI and Hickey recruited to be #1 ruck).
Health was the biggest concern but mitigated by being a mid-pricer and either having a playing R3 early on or just goes into the upgrade cycle from rounds.
The 105 average is much better than I expected, hence him still being a keeper.
When planning for next year I will probably be taking the same approach in looking for the cheaper R2 option – I will probably be wondering if Gawn’s days as the #1 will be over if Luke Jackson continues to emerge.
Thanks Sal.
A few others to consider..
Movers.
Touk Miller. 2020 ave 105.9 Now 120.6
Ben Keays 2020 ave 81. now 101.7
Shakers .
Neale . 2020 .134 now 101.9
Petracca. 2020 117.5 Now 106.0
I think Petracca is actually a good buy atm. He should come home strong and lift that ave closer to 110.
Fyfe is another one. 2020 113- 104
I’m hoping they start to play him forward.
Even with his injury history as M/F priced at around 100- 105.
I’m all over him next year.
Thanks again Sal.
Passing on Miller at the byes feels like one of the biggest mistakes that I have made.
Good call out on Petracca.
Yeah thanks.
Miller will be in my starting side next year.
Petracca is now nearing his prime , and too good a player not too come home strong. I didn’t see him lifting his ave to 110 in a single week!
He is on my watch list for next year too.
Melb seem to always get that last killer Bye. If his price is right and I pass on Gawn , he might get a starting gig.