Cow Talk – Round 4 –> 5

Written by Father Dougal on April 17 2019

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

At last we have enough weeks of data to make running the numbers worthwhile!

That’s a lie. You just needed to see them yourself.

Yes, well, if I feel a need to see them, then other people do to. At this point we are short data as far as performance, but we can at least do some projections so we can guess at how may or may not be worth keeping. It is early for trading, but, well, can’t hurt to have the numbers can it?

Assuming anyone can understand all those numbers.

Yes, well, I’m gonna take a shot at explaining.

 

Week – The weeks the player has played. To avoid the huge pain in the you-know-where from trying to put in blanks when a player misses, I just skip that week. If you look at Hore or Balta you can see how that works.

Score – Scores with a gray background have already happened. Scores without a gray background are the player’s current average which are used for the projections.  

Price – The player’s price at the start of that week. Prices with a gray background have already happened. Prices without a gray background are the player’s projected prices based on their past scoring, with future scoring at their current average.

Proj. Change – How much a player’s price is projected to change, week by week. Only show for future weeks.

Total Proj. – All the weekly projected changes added together. How much he “will” make if sold that week.

Time/Cash Value – I need a better name for this. Please feel free to make suggestions in the comments.  So, last season I wrote about Cowpound interest.

http://supercoachtalk.com/cow-talk-round-1-cowpound-interest/

To sum up, the sooner you spend money the sooner it makes you points. So, it may be worth taking less money sooner, if you can spend it. Time/Cash Value is the Total Proj. * the number of (playing) weeks left in the season. On playing round 22 this is zero, since I am an idiot, and just realized I am a week off in how I made the spreadsheet. It should be 1* the amount of money you get on the last week, not zero. Ok, so I will fix that for next week’s post. The idea is you can tell how much use you get from the money now vs later if you are able to spend it.

Change – The change in the Time/Cash Value week to week. High is good, negative is bad.

Extracted Time/Cash Value – Also off by a week. Obscene-gerund overly-warm-afterlife-place. Anyways, this is (the player’s price – 123,900 ) * the number of weeks left to play. If you are upgrading the player this does not matter. If you are downgrading, the player, then it gives you an idea of what he is worth over time, taking the downgrade target’s cost into account. Assuming the downgrade target costs 123,900. I need a better name for this field too.

Change – The change in the Extracted Time/Cash Value week to week. High is good, negative is bad.  And yes, two columns named change. I am sure you can cope. Pro-tip, the change columns apply to the column directly to their left.

So, numbers below, that’s it for…

How about the write-ups?

Um, (looks embarrassed)

Are you going to do player by player write-ups this week? You usually do those every week.

(small voice) No…

And why not?

Because I forgot how long it took to get the first Cow Talk spreadsheet and post of the year up, and I ran out of time.

And why did you forget that?

Hysterical Cow Talk Blindness! It’s like a defense mechanism where my brain can’t handle the horrors of getting all the numbers and stuff together at the start of the season, so it forgets so the memory of it doesn’t stop me from doing it again next season.

What, seriously?

Well, I would do it if I remembered, but still. And then I found out the when I cut from Google Docs I can’t paste into an image which I need to upload since the player data overflows the screen. And I had put it all into Open Office and then reformat it all since the paste lost all that, and it took a while.

You could have just used the snip tool to take captures of the Google Docs and saved yourself a lot of time.

….I…NOW you tell me?

Gotta go!

Well, that’s all for this week’s Cow Talk.  Pardon me while I chase down my Imaginary Interlocutor.  He can run but he can’t hide!

Gonna try!

Defenders

Collins

Scrimshaw

 

 

Hore

Clark –

Duursma

Wilke

Burgess

Moore

Ridley

Rozee

Midfielders

 

Walsh

Constable

Butters

Atkins

Scott

Cousins

Bailey Smith

Gibbons

Davies-Uniacke

Forwards

 

Drew

Parker

Setterfield

Miers

Petruccelle

Balta

 

Thanks for Reading!

 

 

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17 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 4 –> 5”

  1. Thoughts on Gibbons-Stack and Balta-O’Brien (Bines) if Sauce looks like missing a few.

    Does absolutely nothing for my on-field team but gets rid of some serious deadwood for some good cash generation.

    TU – consider
    TD – not worth it

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  2. Thanks FD.

    Seems apart from “The Golden Cow Walsh”. ( who may even be a keeper at this early stage M9 ? ) the Show Cows are mainly in defence this year. Maybe there’s better feed in their paddock.

    Nearly all the Forward cows are pretty skinny ,and maybe a slow burn to even make another $100k.

    I ask you, is it a crazy idea to take a punt on a Forward, Bargain / Midpricer with a very low B/E hoping they can hold current form for at least a few weeks ?

    This could potentially ..one , Score you considerably more points on field.
    Two, make $100K+ quickly, making them an easy upgrade to a Fallen Premo if their form does drop off?

    Surely the risk of punting on a player like this, is no greater than expecting a couple of these Spud forward rookies to start pumping out 80+ scores and generate enough cash to actually upgrade your forwards.

    Sorry if this sound like a rant, I’m just genuinely curious as to how we are going to afford it any other way?

    Thanks again for the numbers.

    look forward to the reviews in the coming weeks 😉

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    1. Any forward bargains that stick out to you?
      Seems the same kind of idea as starting with darcy moore instead of another rookie at the start of the season and that seems to be paying off

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      1. M daddy.

        I kinda saw “The writing on the Wall” and started four Premo forwards. It stretched my backline with B Smith at D3 but I had some faith in my defensive rookies.

        My forwards are..

        Danger
        Heeney
        Mundy ( traded to T Kelly R2 🙁 )
        Dunkley ( 🙁 80 average isn’t terrible I suppose )
        Darcy Moore.
        Drew
        Bench Parker, Petrucelle.

        Setters is on my mid bench.

        As for “Value / Bargains” folks are talking up Marshall from the Saints. He has a very low BE and could score well and make some $ in the short term.

        You could also a little more long term , and consider guys like Lobb or Lycett , as they can at least provide ruck cover.

        Happy Hunting.

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      2. I made the mistake of picking Elliott instead of Moore at the start of the season. Do you think its too late to swap them now?

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        1. elliott’s next 5 games are easier , 3 @ the G , @ worst he won’t loose cash , he’s got a low BE & was better in his last game , i’d hold & upgrade a rookie instead if that’s an option ,
          IMO moore will probably only average around 80 , will do for an F6 – 8 @ the end ,

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  3. Thanks FD, let’s hope we get some proper cows after the Mid draft. Looks like It’s going to be a long and painstaking cash generation . At least here at SCT we have the data to see how bad..

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  4. Thoughts on trading:
    Butters –> Stack
    Sweet –> O’Brien

    Have 28 trades left so hoping to generate some cash.

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  5. Who has the better JS –

    T/U Rotham
    T/D Stack

    Worried about Heeny being out, and the Rotham trade allows me to Swing Rozee forward

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