The Fallen Premiums – Rd 10

Written by Chillo on May 30 2018

Round 10 was easily the highest scoring weekend of the year thus far for Supercoaches. 17 players from the round scored 130+, including some popular picks in Fyfe, Coniglio, Simpson and Dangerfield. So it’s very possible that you won’t be looking for an upgrade option this week, and are happy to save trades. Wise strategy, especially with the annual debacle that is the bye rounds brewing in the background!

However, if you’re one of the few who struggled last week (*slowly raises hand*), you’ll be very keen to get some actual genuine premiums into your team. Here’s the pick of the crop:

DEFENDERS

Heath SHAW (GWS), $448 100 (-$10.0K), average 93, BE 66 – Hey, do you remember when Shaw wasn’t just the dominant defender in the game, but one of the first players picked in any Supercoach team? Heater sent a timely reminder of that golden age against the Bombers, racking up 34 disposals which included 29 off that trusty right boot. In the twilight of his career, but still very capable of finishing in the top 10 defenders for the season.

Shane SAVAGE (STK), $439 100 (-$40.6K), average 92, BE 69 – Savage was an interesting point of difference in some pre-season backlines, and generally he’s performed about as well as his owners could have hoped for. With Roberton out for the season, the opportunity is there for Savage to get a greater share of the ball and the points. Scored 104 against the reigning premiers in his last outing.

Backing it up…
Michael Hurley, $520K, 149
James Sicily, $515K, BE 147
Jeremy Howe, $521K, BE 133

 MIDFIELDERS

Tom ROCKLIFF (PTA), $374 900 (-$154.5K), average 63, BE 25 – Modern sportsmen love ‘ticking boxes’, and Rocky does plenty of that this week: huge ceiling, low price tag, low break-even, bye round done. It’s very nice to have a premium at M9 at the end of the year, but could Rocky be more than that? Had pre-bye scores of 98 and 102 after returning from a stint in the SANFL.

Tom MITCHELL (HAW), $576 200 (-$77.3K), average 123, BE 75 – The most magnetic of all magnets has been untagged in the past fortnight, and as a consequence he boasts scores of 155 and 116 in that time. His break-even is now as low as it has been since his 150 ppg outburst at the start of the season. 39% of teams still don’t have him for some reason, that may be about to change…

The Don’t Argue claims another victim

Dustin MARTIN (RIC), $482 100 (-$173.9K), average 107, BE 81 – Dusty started the season like a house on fire, but then failed to reach triple figures for one frustrating month. However, if you check his numbers from last year, you’ll see an eerie coincidence! Martin has tonned up in each of his past two starts, and the reigning Brownlow medallist is now primed to explode again.

Limbo land…
Marcus Bontempelli, $561K, BE 170
Gary Ablett, $509K, BE 164
Jack Macrae, $727K, BE 157
Josh Kelly, $574K, BE 154
Clayton Oliver, $567K, BE 154

RUCK

Unless one of these two guys is injured, this is really all you need to know:

Max Gawn, $658K, BE 160
Brodie Grundy, $620K, BE 111

FORWARDS

Michael WALTERS (FRE), $419 700 (-$58.6K), average 93, BE 25 – Sonny Walters is this week’s textbook Fallen Premium – an elite scorer who has one poor game about to drop out of his price cycle. Blazed the Roos for 146 at his last start, and his average of 104 in non-injury games this year would be enough to make him a top 6 forward. Too good to ignore?

That’s the way Sonny does the hula

Isaac HEENEY (SYD), $503 300 (-$33.0K), average 106, BE 69 – Already in 46% of teams, Heeney has followed up a couple of quiet weeks with scores of 105 and 128 in his past two. Gets the pill at all points of the field, but you can pick him as a forward in Supercoach. What you waiting for?

Lance FRANKLIN (SYD), $457 500 (-$83.0K), average 98, BE 103 – It’s a mark of Buddy’s scoring potential that 3000 coaches brought him in last week, despite a break-even north of 130. The conditions didn’t suit him in that game, but he faces the cellar-dwelling Blues this week at the SCG, which he should find more to his liking.

Forward thinking….
Kane Lambert, $473K, BE 148
Robbie Gray, $542K, BE 136

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24 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 10”

  1. Thanks Chillo. With Schwarz away, you guys are doing an amazing job with the quality and number of posts. Hats off to you all. Brilliant stuff you’re all pumping out for the community. Massive appreciation.
    *raises hat

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  2. Hmmmm …
    TU: Walters this week and Danger next
    TD: don’t delay any longer, just get Danger in NOW

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    1. If you’re planning on bringing both in, then is really depends on which rookies you’re planning on trading out. That being said, Walters will go up in price SIGNIFICANTLY this week (B/E only 24, whereas Danger’s B/E is 120), so the economical choice would be to get Walters first.

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    1. Yeah, he probably could ‘average’ 100, but he won’t score 1,300 points over the next 13 rounds. No way he doesn’t succumb to injury again.

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      1. Thanks David!
        It’s a tough one, hopefully the decision becomes easier when the teams are released; struggling to decide Kelly to Danger or Kelly to Rocky. Probably can’t afford to miss the points from danger if I want to keep my spot in the top 200 🙁

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  3. Love the differing of opinions on Rocky. He is either going to average 100+ or score 60s before he eventually gets injured. Feel like a lot of planets have aligned for this week and when I can effectively “downgrade” Tim Kelly to Tom Rockliff then I’ll seriously be considering pulling the trigger on him this week. Worst case he is a step ladder to another premo post byes. I have 21 trades left as it stands so happy to take the risk on a guy with a history as below;

    Year Games Average
    2009 1 12.0
    2010 19 85.9
    2011 20 113.5
    2012 22 97.3
    2013 21 109.7
    2014 18 132.0
    2015 16 101.9
    2016 17 111.0
    2017 20 96.3

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    1. Surprised by this – only had one monster year, followed by 113 (which isn’t unusual). Perhaps Rocky’s scoring potential is overstated?

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        1. If you can back Rocky up this week with Danger next week I’d do it. But if you can’t, get Danger NOW

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    2. Cheers Froff!
      Going to be a big call, Rocky seems adament on making an impression at the club – playing under an injury cloud during the first few weeks ..

      He has strung together 2 ‘best players’ performances in the SANAFL and continued his form through the AFL

      Could very well be back!

      Feel it’s either this week or never though.

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  4. Hmmm … Rocky, Walters plus a few rookies on the bubble. Four or five options to squeeze into two precious trades.

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    1. I hear you Roo Bloke. I could go T Kelly to Rocky and Fritsch to Walters this week but T Smith really is a must. So it is T Kelly to Walters who can warm M8 for a week then Giles-Langdon to Smith I think for me. I will reassess Rocky next week and cop the price increase if he does well. If he belts out another 100 this week (or more) then he is still a steel even if he hits $420k odd.

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  5. Should I go Fritsch to Walters this week, or should I wait until Fritsch reaches his peak price and then trade him out to another premo (probably after his bye). My other forward rookies are Smith, Guelfi and Keeffe

    T/U: Trade him, Walters is too much value at this price

    T/D: Wait until Fritsch maxes out, there are plenty of other forward options at a later date.

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    1. If Fritsch scores two 85s he’ll be 389k by his bye – 20k up on his current price. Looking at it simplistically, Walters will earn & score more in the same time.

      The upside of Fritsch is another warm body for R12, then bringing in an Eagle/Hawk/Blue/Dog for R13/14.

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    2. I’m in a similar boat and would probably move Guelfi before Fritsch. Although Guelfi out is a bit early, I’m looking at it primarily from a scoring perspective. Whoever you keep will be on field during the byes, so that’s an extra 40-ish points.

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  6. I have been burnt by Rockliff’s injuries far too much in the past to consider him again.

    I had a shithouse week, I’ve gone for the following, pending any Team News howlers:

    Coffield > T. Smith (swinging Sicily into my backline)
    Kelly > Boak (will eventually swing him into my forward line, have a good array of cows in the forward line)

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    1. Re: Rocky, it’s a no from me too. I’m going to struggle with saving trades as it is. Worrying about Rockliff popping a shoulder/pinging a string/copping a head knock every week for the next three months is too much stress to handle.

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