The Fallen Premiums – Rd 13

Written by MJ on June 27 2012

At this stage of the season, many of us will be running low on trades. It is therefore imperative, that we get the most out of our upgrades, by grabbing a quality player at a bargain price. For this reason, I have decided to take the time to highlight the ‘Fallen Premiums’ in the game right now, who represent outstanding value for the potential they can produce. Either through injury, being played out of position (Ross Lyon), or patches of poor form, these players have all seen significant price drops since the beginning of the season, but have all shown the ability to produce consistent premium scores in recent past.

Defenders:

Heath Scotland $496,600; 101.00, BE 103.

Has not gone below 83 this season in 11 games. Averaged 105.6 last year, and as a result he was priced at $573k in Round 1. His recent calf injury means you can get him for less than $500k. Many will be waiting for Andrew Carrazzo next week, but Scotland could set you apart.

Corey Enright $454,000; 89.64, BE 101.

Hasn’t dipped below a 96 season average since 2007. Scored 93+ in 7/11 games. Got Port and Gold Coast in his next two outings fresh off the back of a 123 against Sydney. The time is right. In less than 10% of teams, he’s surprisingly a bit of a POD.

Alex Rance $413,100; 93.25, BE 57.

Motts loves this bloke, and for pretty good reason. His scores tapered off after Dylan Grimes went down with a hamstring injury, which has seen Rance go to the best forward. With Grimes now off the injury list, I’d expect young Alex’s scoring to improve. If you take out those two games in the 60s, he’s averaging 98.1 and is amazing value at that price. POD in only 5.1% of teams.

Matt Suckling $403,400; 88.92, BE 35.

This guy surprised everyone last season, averaging 90.7 in 2011 after just 6 games in his previous two seasons. Has one of the best kicks in the game and can go large, shown by his 120 in Rd 4 and 119 in Rd 12 with Hawthorn’s short kicking, possession game style. His scoring did drop off in the back half of last year, so he is a risk. Has dropped $88k for the season and with a BE of 35 if you want him, you’d better get him this week.

Wait a week on these blokes:

Brendan Goddard $498,800; 103.17, BE 129

Chris Newman $392,300; 80.42, BE 121

Sam Fisher $434,400; 85.00, BE 135

Andrew Carrazzo $465,300; 93.20, BE 147

Midfielders:

Scott Thompson $529,000; 117.17, BE 90.

Would be very close to leading the Brownlow at this stage of the season with 7 games of 119+. Ryan Crowley tagged him out of the game in Rd 10 for a 58 and that score will drop out of his price cycle this week. He was around $600k a month ago. One of the best value picks going around at the moment and many have been waiting to buy him this week. Oh, and have you seen who he plays in the SC Grand Final? Gold Coast. You’d just want to hope he doesn’t get rested against the hats!

Tom Rockliff $523,200; 111.83, BE 68.

Flies under the radar this kid, being up in Queensland. If he were playing for a Victorian team, he’d be talked about a lot more. Has posted scores of 139, 163, 140, 146, 147 this season, but still throws in sub 90 scores (5 of them) which hurts his average. In only 4% of teams. Wait for this… averaged 124.54 from Rd 13-24 last year, never dropping below 108. Could be a sneaky pick to differentiate you from the pack.

Matt Priddis $522,000; 101.00, BE 101.

Most have already jumped on the Priddis bandwagon, and you could’ve got him for around $470k a few weeks back, but still a bargain at this price.

Nick Dal Santo $516,700; 106.92, BE 70.

Again, many got him a month ago, but NDS is still undervalued. From this point last year to Rd 23 he averaged 134.67 so can obviously finish a season strong. Has only averaged less than 112 in one season since 2005 so you’d back him to return to that sort of average by season’s end. Still $130k cheaper than at the start of the season.

Wait a week on these blokes:

Chris Judd $470,800; 102.18, BE 130

Andrew Swallow $514,000; 106.42, BE 123

Dale Thomas $536,200; 98.62, BE 156

Josh Kennedy $537,600; 118.67, BE 144

Brent Stanton $516,800; 119.83, BE 141

Matthew Boyd $542,600; 109.83, BE 153

Rucks:

Jarryd Roughead $493,200; 101.45, BE 72.

Mr. Consistency this year, has not gone less than 88 all season and has posted 3 120+ scores. One will wonder what will happen to his scoring when Bailey returns, but he’s still a great selection for less than $500k and able to be used as a forward as well, so presents great flexibility if you have a R/F swinger already.

Sam Jacobs $467,000; 95.75, BE 63.

Averaged 103.2 from this time last year to Rd 23 so could finish off the season strongly. Scored 136 against the Saints in Rd12. A low BE of 63 suggests his price is about to go North. If you can’t afford Cox/NicNat/Maric, and are looking for a POD ruckman, go for him or Shane Mumford if you believe big Mummy’s back is nothing to worry about.

Wait a week on this guy:

Shane Mumford $458,900; 83.60, BE 102

Forwards:

Matthew Pavlich $486,900; 97.58, BE 78.

A SuperCoach warhorse over the years, Matty Pavlich is beginning to hit form again after a slow start to the season adjusting to Lyon’s new game style. Has averaged 105.5 in the last 4 games, and has not averaged less than 99 since 2005.  Should get you around 100 points every week.

Cyril Rioli $481,700; 95.08, BE 51.

Was around $450k a few weeks ago, so not quite the bargain that he was then, but Cyril seems to have hit form in recent times and won’t be this price for much longer with a BE of 51. Averaged 99.6 last season, including a 142 and 175. Unfortunately he does have the tendency to go missing in games on occasion, but has scored consistently (97, 125 and 115) in his last three. Injury is the biggest concern for me, but he may have put that behind him, playing every game this season, and he could well be a big part of the Hawks push for a top 4 spot. Got Carlton, GWS and the Bulldogs in the next 3 and is $58k cheaper than at the start of the season, but I’d rather wait a week or two for Adam Goodes at a similar, if not cheaper price.

Travis Cloke $430,400; 88.25, BE 62.

Has hit confidence and form again after a dry spell. 127, 107, 89 in last 3. Again, a risky pick, but big Travis averaged 112.75 from Rd11-23 last season so definitely capable of a big second half to the season. Liked him more a couple of weeks ago at $396k, but this is your last chance to get him at a relative bargain. Same goes for Brent Harvey $430,800; 88.08, BE 41.

Wait a week on these blokes:

Adam Goodes $502,900; 91.50, BE 168

Jordan Lewis $438,700; 94.40, BE 116

If I missed anyone, pop them down in the comments section below. Also, a big thanks to Nath for the SC Stats page, it’s made it a lot easier to write this post.

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27 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 13”

  1. A massive welcome to SCT’s first Contributor – MJ!

    I don’t have to tell you how good a job he’s done above. The words ‘strong’ and ‘cranking’ come to mind.

    From all of us at SCT – thanks mate!

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  2. Great stuff MJ. On the money as always.

    I’ve had Rance since RD4 and while has been solid I was pretty worried by those two 60s. I hadn’t really twigged on the effect Grimes not being there had though so looking forward to some quality from him for the rest of the year.

    Rockliff was a big surprise too. I was keeping half an eye on him from the start of the year knowing he had potential and would still be a big POD. Stopped watching after those games up forward though. What I didn’t realise was how often he has gone big. And BIG big too. That’s effectively 5 140+s in twelve games. If only I could rely on Vossy to keep him in the guts. I’ll pass this year and hope he does have another few quiet ones to keep his price down for next.

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  3. hmm this has me thinking

    Had pencilled in Clarke-Carrazzo this week. Maybe I should trade Clarke for Scotland and get Carrazzo next week

    Thumbs up Grab Scotland for Clarke
    Thumbs down Grab Carrazzo for Clarke

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  4. Gee you have me thinking now! Had mummy penciled in this week considering his scores are on the up and he plays GWS this week but now his back is making me second guess. Jacobs at a very similar price and has been very consistent this year is looking a very good option!

    TU-Mumford
    TD-Jacobs

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