The Fallen Premiums – Rd 8

Written by Chillo on May 16 2018

There is still some quite unbelievable value to be found in the midfield in this week’s Fallen Premiums, but there are some interesting choices starting to come through in the bookends as well. Hopefully your bank balance is well in the black, because these bargains won’t last!

DEFENDERS

Jake LLOYD (SYD), $466 600 (-$13.3K), average 95, BE 71 – The pre-season knock on Young Anakin was the effect McVeigh might have on his scores, but Lloyd has been remarkably consistent, only dropping below 80 once. His 130 last Friday night against the Hawks was his best this year. Always gets plenty of it in that Supercoach-friendly role off halfback.

Congrats Jake!

Elliot YEO (WCE), $531 300 (-$30.0), average 103, BE 96 – If you conveniently ignore that third round blooper, the Yeo-yeo has been exceptional in 2018, with seven scores between 94 and 150. Still 30K down on his starting price, and the round 12 bye is helpful.

Backing it up…
Michael Hurley, $520K, BE 150 *injured*
Alex Witherden, $450K, BE 145
Rory Laird, $554K, BE 125

 MIDFIELDERS

Marcus BONTEMPELLI (WBD), $556 600 (-$21.2K), average 106, BE 58 – The Bont bounced back from his hip-induced week off with 132 against the Lions, including four goals. That makes it five tons in seven games, and drops his break-even to a very tempting 58. A word of warning though – Bontempelli played primarily as a forward last week, and might not see as much of the ball playing there when the Dogs face stronger opposition.

Dayne ZORKO (BRL), $459 000 (-$149.9K), average 85, BE -9 – Last chance to catch the Zorko Express! Dayne has richly rewarded those very patient coaches who stuck with him, posting 164 and 121 in the past fortnight. Absolutely incredible value – if you’re convinced that he’s learnt how to cope with the tag. Next 3 games are against Hawthorn, Sydney and North.

Luke PARKER (SYD), $467 600 (-$78.4K), average 100, BE 70 – Despite that average, it’s definitely been a disappointing start for Parker, who has often found himself pinch-hitting in the forward line. Last week he returned to an on-ball role, and his owners reaped the benefits to the tune of 124 points. With the Swans still missing some key personnel there is risk involved here, but also huge upside if Parker continues to get that mid time.

Clayton OLIVER (MEL), $568 200 (-$44.6K), average 117, BE 75 – Kid’s a gun. He’s got the quickest hands in the league, he’s tough as week-old chewing gum, and he has the best ruckman around tapping it to him every weekend. If you have a spare mid spot, don’t hesitate, just get him.

The engine room.

Patrick DANGERFIELD (GEE), $604 500 (-$145.3K), average 115, BE 119 – The numbers don’t quite add up yet, but I had to include him this week based on gut feeling. In the next four weeks the Cats face Essendon, Carlton, Gold Coast and North. Yeah, you could wait until after the byes to get Danger, but you’ll probably have to pay a fee for that time.

Limbo land…
Gary Ablett, $603K, BE 173

Dustin Martin, $519K, BE 162
Adam Treloar, $605K, BE 150
Patrick Cripps, $590K, BE 150

RUCK

Matthew KREUZER (CAR), $471 800 (-$131.9K), average 82, BE 93 – It’s been a tough year so far for Kreuuuuzer, but he returned to his dominating best in a BOG performance in the Blues first win of the year with 127 points. Extraordinarily well-priced for someone of his capabilities, but there is a  need to factor in the possibility of injury. You have to ask yourself: do I feel lucky?

Dismemberment: a viable method of winning a ruck contest.

Timberrrr….
Patrick Ryder, $522K, BE 140

FORWARDS

Sam MENEGOLA (GEE), $514 100 (-$37.7K), average 100, BE 93 – This is the third time that Slammin’ Sam has made an appearance on the Fallen Premiums, which is symptomatic of his roller-coaster of a season. Menegola’s numbers will probably continue to rise and fall in Geelong’s loaded midfield, but overall he will likely finish as a top 10 forward. You’ll just have to be prepared to take the rocks (four scores under 86) with the diamonds (four times 120+).

Forward thinking….
Michael Walters, $460K, BE 162
Isaac Heeney, $516K, BE 145
David Mundy, $478K, BE 128

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20 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 8”

  1. I like the look of Yeo this week for my first trade. The second trade I am tossing up between Danger and Sicily. Keeping in mind I may double – downgrade next week. Thoughts?

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    1. All comes down to who are they replacing. If getting in Danger means you get rid of a Holman type from your field and it means you keep a Doedee/Finlayson down back then I’d go Danger. If Danger is replacing a Kelly type then I’d upgrade Sicily. Need to look at the combination of the two players will be on field in each scenario IMO.

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      1. I have flexibly in my team so Naught-on and Doedee will go out and I can bring either Danger or Sicily this week for trade 2.

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  2. Hmmmmmm was locked into bringing in Simpson as my defensive premo this week but Lloyd certainly does peak my interest. Already have Laird, Sicily and Yeo so who would you be bringing in this week if you were in my situation;

    T/U: Lloyd
    T/D: Simpson

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    1. Keep in mind Simmo has a breakeven of 102 and a 3 round average of what I believe to be 80ish (someone correct me if I’m wrong please) so you could possibly save a trade this week and get him cheaper or pretty much the same price next week

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      1. Think Simpson is the better value averaging 107 with 4 tons, will definitely be in the top 6 at years end as he is so consistent with virtually no competition at Carlton. Lloyd is averaging 95 with only 2 tons and has plenty of competition for points at Sydney. His scoring fell away badly last year as Sydney gained momentum from 0-6 start.

        But then if you are looking at saving dollars and think Lloyd can push his final average towards a 100 then this is the week to get him as after this week he will be priced around his starting price.

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    2. I prefer Simmo, but with Yeo and Sicily already in your DEF and both R12, it makes it a difficult choice unless you can swing Sicily FWD for that week and stick him on the bench?!
      Dunno about anyone else but I’m finding R12 the hardest for the above reason and also having Macrae, Titch and Cripps in the MIDs.
      I know I can just about cover them all, but that is a lot of elite premos out for the same week. I guess everyone who has them is in the same boat.
      Now I’m just waffling …

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  3. Looking to trade Goldie

    Should I take a punt on kreuzer returning to last year’s form at a very low price, or go with the safer option of the already-proven Grundy?

    TU Kreuzer
    TD Grundy

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      1. it’s been that kind of season hey?!
        am wondering if Grundy might be given an ‘extra week’ around his bye. Hopefully that particular trade can wait until then when I might even have some cash!

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    1. I have the same issue. I’m just holding off a little longer to see what Ryder can offer. BE of 140 and could be picked up for about 500K after his bye…

      If not I will jump on Grundy.

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  4. TU – Danger
    TD – Oliver

    can afford both, worth waiting for danger? oliver probably wont be this cheap again

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    1. I’d definitely go Oliver first. This week he will increase c.$40k you’d think and unless Danger decides to go stratospheric (which he could against the bombers!) you should be better off.
      If the Danger trade is for Kelly OUT, you would think Kelly will outperform/match him on price increases in the interim, so you will be no worse off.
      Good luck!

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  5. If all the stars I’d get Oliver as my final mid and keep Kelly as an M9. First I’ll be needing to get Danger as my final essential midfielder.

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