The Pre-Fallen Premiums – Rd 2, 2020

Written by Chillo on June 4 2020

Business as usual for Supercoach means no price changes after the first round, so no official Fallen Premiums yet. And usually the official SCT advice would be to avoid trading before round 2 unless necessity dictates, e.g. you’ve suffered the misfortune of a long term injury to a premium player.

BUT in yet another quirk of the quirkiest of seasons, prices will change after Round 2 this year. Combine that with the five trades we all have now, as well as the abbreviated season (again referring to allsaints excellent season reboot preview), and it suddenly becomes a very viable tactic to swap premiums right now before those changes kick in. Another factor to consider is the dearth of rookie options in the backline – will downgrading a premium allow you to upgrade one of those spuddish backline rooks? If so, then surely this is a no-brainer and you should just pull that trigger?

The upshot of all this is that, for possibly the only time in history, I am going to shelve the usual pre-Round 2 lines and instead say this: regardless of what moves you’re planning, if you think it improves your team overall, then you should do it NOW. Conservation of trades is not a concern this season! 

Here are the best options for pre-Fallen Premiums this week:

DEFENDERS

With the notable exception of old mate Shannon Hurn (152), the genuine premium-priced defenders were a bitter disappointment in the first round. However the next tier down were terrific, and there are a number of hands being raised here…

I’m going to assume you’ve already got Sam DOCHERTY (CAR, $436 100, BE 49) sitting comfortably in your defence. If you don’t, please go and sit in the corner for a half hour and then come back and talk to me.

I readily admit personal bias here but facts are that Jeremy HOWE (COL, $431 900, BE 8) is the most traded-in defender thus far, which is hardly surprising after he racked up 156 against a listless Dogs first up. His score was massively boosted by 12 intercepts, courtesy of the haphazard delivery from the opposition mids. You shouldn’t be expecting him to repeat that effort any time soon but history shows Howe is perfectly capable of going 90+ for the remainder of the season. The big question here (as always) is Jeremy’s propensity for a soft tissue injury – but the shortened season may suit him.

The other one who looks good back here is Darcy BYRNE-JONES (PTA, $473 400, BE 66), who complied a very solid 114 after breaking out in the second half of 2019. The big knock on Darcy is the putrid 7 (not a typo) he turned out in the SC semis last year, where he just had an absolute mare at Docklands and could not find the pill at all. If you can put your sunglasses on and ignore that diabolical effort, DBJ has averaged 103.9 since the bye last year. Enormous POD value at 1% ownership!

MIDFIELDERS

The Supercoach flavour of the month is definitely Jack VINEY (MEL, $439 300, BE -19) after he ravaged the hotshot Eagles midfield for a round-high 186 points. His performance included a massive 20 contested touches and he made highly regarded opponent Elliot Yeo look very average in the process. Before you make that jump though, it’s important to remember that Jack has never averaged in triple figures in his seven years in the league, and in fact only managed to notch the ton on four occasions in 21 games in 2019. He’s also very awkwardly priced – too expensive to be a worthwhile cash grab, but probably not quite a keeper either? It might be a case of if you’ve started with him then bully for you, but otherwise there’ll be another train along shortly…

For the Jack STEELE (STK, $515 900, BE 68) fans out there – and there are a few of you! – he was great in round one, piling up 128 in familiar fashion. Steele finished off 2019 reasonably well and is now in his sixth season, ripe territory for a breakout. Any takers? The other side of the coin from that game was Ben CUNNINGTON (NTH, $554 100, BE 26), who went bananas as he is often capable of and smashed out 185 courtesy of 25 possessions, 7 tackles, and a couple of snags for good measure. The caveat is that he started last season in similar fashion, and then the taggers got hold of him. He faces Matt de Boer in round 2.

There are plenty of other options in the midfield – some good, some risky – but my final note here reads: if you don’t have Lachie NEALE (BRL, $658 500, BE 94), fix it.

Leather poisoning and bruised knuckles are common symptoms of Nealeitis

RUCKS

The definition of ‘premium’ is somewhat fungible, but I’m going to use some poetic licence and include Sam JACOBS (GWS, $348 400, BE -1) and Sam NAISMITH (SYD, $251 500, BE -25). The two Sydney Sams are both discount options who are set to soar in price in the next month following huge tons in round 1. After witnessing the “Supercoach Ruck Tsunami” that saw ten tappers top the ton first up, the ruck department may well be the safest way to build some cash while also maintaining your scoring this season.

But are you really going to burn Max GAWN (MEL, $697 100, BE 172) to do it?????

FORWARDS

The forward line is by far the wildest of wildcards in the Supercoach landscape this year. Loads of mid-pricers posted notable scores in round 1, but many of those also have reputations for inconsistency and unreliability. Just quickly:

Isaac HEENEY (SYD, $510 700, BE 42) was fantastic against the Crows last time out, slotting four majors in his 152. But with Buddy confirmed as a long time spectator, it’s already been flagged that Heenz will spend most of his time in the forward 50, which will surely affect his scoring.

Chad WINGARD (HAW, $412 300, BE 26) had the much-maligned “more midfield time” tag stuck on him in the pre-season. But in a pleasant change of pace, Chadwing actually did spend a lot of time at the coalface against the Lions, as well finding time to pot three goals and knock up 131 points. Fantastic talent but a gentle reminder that in addition to inconsistency, Wingard is also notorious for a hammy niggle or a calf twinge.

Connor ROZEE (PTA, $422 100, BE 35) is an exciting talent, but also only in his second season. Second season breakouts in Supercoach are rarer than a “no comment” from Eddie McGuire, but maybe Connor can be the exception that proves the rule? Bailey SMITH (WBD, $415 900, BE 52) sits in the same boat after he was arguably the Dogs’ best in their disappointing start to the season.

Hugh GREENWOOD (GCS, $463 100, BE 60) and the enigmatic Christian PETRACCA (MEL, $441 300, BE 63) are the other two forwards who are seemingly spending more time in the midfield this year, and may be worth considering based on that knowledge.

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15 thoughts on “The Pre-Fallen Premiums – Rd 2, 2020”

  1. Might jump on Viney as a quick cash grab fix up Robbo down back these 30 trades will see us play the sc game different this year

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  2. Hard not to agree with the Lachie Neale comment Chillo, but at this stage offloading any of Fyfe, Jelly, Danger or JackMac seems a step too far. Already have Viney so will see where that takes me short term even tho Neale will get more expensive in that short term.

    Can only see enough cash to make one upgrade mid pricer as it seems most of my issues will be with cows not getting a Guernsey for R2, ie McAsey, Starcevich, Green, and therefore not a sizeable bank to work with. Robbo and/or Brayshaw are my options to gain the cash to make one upgrade, more likely however to be Brayshaw and McAsey out Howe and Sturt in.

    At the end of the day, until sides drop for R2 all our hands are tied and we can just theorise over several options with some futility!!

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    1. Agree, JD – if I had that midfield I would be concentrating on other lines also. Lachie is one of my favourite SC players though, and he never quite seems to get the kudos that he deserves IMO.

      I’m really itching for teams to be named, mainly so I can figure out which of my rookies have to go. At the moment, “all of them” is the raging hot favourite!

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  3. Much as I hate anything Caaaaaaaaaar….oh, I just can’t say it, Petrevski-Seton is on my radar as one of those mid priced defenders that we will need as there wont be time to get to full premo.

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    1. unless you have a great team right now
      to get to full premo
      would need to upgrade & downgrade premo’s looking @ their upcoming values
      as well as rooks to make the most cash possible
      got plenty of trades to do that
      but who wants to trade grundy & gawn for naismith & jacobs
      just to bring the former back in 4 weeks
      will have to chose between rank & profit
      with trades not an issue , will make for an interesting season

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    2. Just loaded up the website to take a look at my team after a long hiatus, and this is the name that has jumped out as well.

      Liked him in the preseason, but went with a different structure. Definitely seems to be the player Carlton want distributing from half back, and as the season progresses and Doc finds his form again, can see Samo getting some extra midfield minutes as well. Uses the ball exceptionally well, particularly when playing from the back half and moving the ball towards the corridor. Can get a little bit crabby when he’s on the wing, but the defensive role seems to bring about a different mindset.

      With 30 trades to play with over 16 rounds, Roberton dishing up a disgusting 26 from 85% time on ground, and Viney looking like a viable M8 for the year, I think I may pull the trigger.

      One of Bont/Dunkley to make way for Viney, Roberton out for SPS. Both were disappointing in round one, and while they’re both still elite, they’re going to start losing money from round 2 and can certainly be picked up cheaper as an upgrade target later on. Which to drop is the big question…

      Feels a little bit reactionary, but the numbers line up well and I think it suits the shortened season a bit better.

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    1. Anyone have inside word on what Sinclair and Mumford are doing these days? That knowledge would make it easier to decide…

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      1. Agreed.

        My uneducated opinion would be that with Buddy down long term there’s scope for Sinclair and Naismith to both play as one can be a target up fwd.

        At GWS i’m a little more flummoxed. I don’t see how Sauce and Mummy could possibly play in the same team and i likewise don’t understand who’s in front of who. Obviously Sauce will be their premier ruck next season when Sausage Mumford retires for good but this season, i don’t get who’s back up to who.

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    1. Our plan is to free Sicily up to run a muck.

      Howe is a good standalone choice, but I wouldn’t be ditching Sicily

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