Cow Talk R4 –> R5

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

This week, it is time for the Hitchhiker’s Guide to Supercoach. Any idea why?

Because the Hamster is running around in circles and flapping his paws, doing his best impression of someone who traded Horne-Francis for Will Day last week?

Panic! Panic! Panic! Time to panic!

DON’T PANIC!!!

Oh, ok. 

Don’t panic huh?

Yeah. People and hamsters all make bad decisions when panicked. 

Fear is the Mind Killer, Fear is the little death….

Yup yup yup.

Fear of missing out and grabbing someone for too high a price. Easy to do. Pay too much, get too little, not have funds for later, score fewer points. 

Sounds bad. 

Is bad.

Despair is bad too. Getting all down on someone who is having a rough patch and then watching them do better. No fun, wasted trade. 

And when you bring in someone who fails for someone who does better, that’s like misplacing a pumpkin seed. 

Yup yup yup. 

Yup yup yup

..why did you say that just then? Were you agreeing with yourself?

I just didn’t want to be left out. 

Right, the whole fear of missing out thing. In this case harmless. 

But not always in Supercoach. 

Yeah, right around now, people often start to panic. Or even Panic.  Thing is, there is a lot of season left, and careful movies are a lot more likely to work out than panic moves. 

How do you tell the difference! That seems hard. 

Yeah, so, um, I am often no good at that part. I was really bad at it last season. Lots of panic, and thinking extra trades, use ‘em. 

Not so good that. 

Not at all. So, my probably dodgy advice is to go back and look at what was expected of someone in the pre-season and then compare that to how they have done so far. Not just last week, but the whole season so far.  If they are cow or cow-like object, we can also look at their last score and BE to see how the cash gen looks. 

Because I have to anyways, I am going to do something I prefer not to and mostly don’t, which is look at my own team and players specifically. 

Last week, I did not trade Shezel or JHF.  Much more important to bring in money makers than to sideways premium, who I saw no reason to assume would suck all year. 

In JHF’s case, he was averaging 75. I doubt he’ll average worse than 95, so I expected him to get better. Maybe sooner, maybe later, but he had some bad runs last season. Rounds 17-19 he averaged 70. I suspect he’ll still be a top 6 forward, so kept. His sudden reversal was a surprise, I did not predict that at all. Just willing to give him up to his bye before deciding what do to with him. 

Ih Sheezel’s case, well, about the same. Hard time seeing him go for more than five less per match than last season, and so willing to ride it out and give him time. Again, I in no way expect an instant turn around, although with him it was not a surprise at all. 

But hindsight now foresight:

Roberts – Paid for an average of 81, getting an average of 103. Nice, happy.  If he slows down enough, maybe he can go after the upgrade season if there is someone enough better for a low enough cost. But silly to move him, no reason really. One bad game, not a reason. 

Bergman: In my mids because of some many defensive cows! Will be useful since he can go back when I sell one of them.  Paid for 78 and getting 90. His scores have gone up and his last score was his best; BE of 51. For sure hold and hope he keeps going at this or an even higher average. Maybe sell at his bye, will have lots more data by then. 

Freijah: Thought he would  go about 80- 85, he is at 81, and his last score is bad and his BE is bad. So, time to sell.  If he had just toned up maybe would keep. But, it looks like his two tons were lucky and he’s a fine player but not reliable enough to keep in back when there are so many good cash options. He is not a must go, but I plan to sell him.  Not for someone top priced, but a cow or some reasonably priced player. 

Will Ashcroft, more than fine, wow, hope he keeps it up, but not counting on it. Crazy to trade. 

Oliver.  Paid for 84 and getting a 100. Fine, nice no reason to do anything for a while if ever. Lots of time to see how he goes. 

Callahan. Glad his bad games came during the byes. Paid for 82 and getting 94. Will mix up good and bad games, but at some point will either become a clear keeper, or have a great score, maybe two close together and be sellable for enough to get a real premium. I expect to sell him someday for a real premium, but not any time soon. If I did not own him and he had another low scoring game, I’d start planning to bring him in. Way likely to go up in price at some point from where he is let alone from even lower. Very hard to imagine that the cash to upgrade him can;t be better spent elsewhere. 

Cerra: Paid for 83 and going at 104. Very happy. No reason to trade, another hold until byes or some big score shoots his price up. 

Ok and a few guys I do not own. I’m gonna pretend I do. 

Rozee. Paid for 98., hoped for 110, getting 100. Nice. Not thrilling, but nice. Two big scores, two low scores. Hold until his bye unless he has a huge spike that makes him worth selling sooner. No reason t think he can;t keep going at 100 for a good while, and he has shown he has big and small matches. String two big one together and good price rise. Lots more urgent things to deal with. 

Ed Richards: Paid for 99, getting 99, hoped for 110. So, once again, just hold, same logic that keeps coming up. Not as good as hoped, but lots of time left, not a problem. Better things to do. 

Nick Daicos: Well, darn. I could sell now and lock in a loss, and then watch other people bring him in at a low price before he get better. That sounds bad. Guess I keep him and ride it out. No reason to think he can;t still go for 115 over the season, means he is due. If he goes for 110, well, darn but that is a risk with paying for a player who scored 115+ the last two seasons, a high price. A BE of 130 is achievable. Better things to do. 

Sam Flanders: What was I thinking buying someone who’s 119 average last season was 30 points over his previous best and I had no reason to think he could back it up. Thank god I can sell him now before his prices drops. 

Feel like that is enough. By now everyone can do that. Not much to it really. 

Now, could my thinking be totally crazy? 

Yes

Yes

Yes. Darn well could be, But, no panicking. 

How about the cows and cow like objects?

At this point I want people who will play,even if they are not playing right now. I held Lindsay. I would have held Knevitt but I used him to get Bice, so worth it. NOD, well, may hold as a loop since I might need three trades before I get to him, so maybe next week. Not rushing Garcia nd SPP put they have low BEs and jobs. Heck, SPP is probably worth holding until he spikes. Try and miss guys with low BEs and bad job security. 

Who are they?

I am so the wrong person to ask. I am awful at predicting what coaches will do. Not even for my own team. 

Really, not even for your own team? Why is that?

Bevo. 

Oh, of course, I’m sorry. Have a pumpkin seed. 

But, I will say that it is ok to ignore how many games someone has played and just look at cost and BE. We would have been very happy to pay $203,400 for a guy who got a -98 BE after his first two games, so Bice is a must get if you do not have, which I do not say lightly. Not just for number, but the age number is 24, so he has a better than average chance of keeping up a good score and being a high scoring cow. Maybe even a steer, aka a keeper. 

Same with all the other guys who we might have missed last week. The Humper costs too much for too little upside now but was fine last week. Maric, um, probably not, but thinkable. He can put up big scores and spike.  

So, Let’s see about making it to upgrade season without having messed up our teams during the panic season. Which was last week and this week and maybe even next week. Cows not ripe, premiums mostly not fallen. Deal with Injuries and any real performance issues, but don;t waste trades on panic moves. Remember the whole Floating premium thing? Lots of them out there still. 

Still early for cows, but since I started doing them here they are. Please let me know if I missed any important ones. Since we have a small data sample their averages may not be really good indicators of how they will score from now on. That will get better as the weeks pass. 

 

Defenders

 

Z Reid
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1	45	119,900
2	36	119,900
3	88	119,900
4		163,100
5	56.3	163,100
6	56.3	200,695	37,595	37,595
7	56.3	237,559	36,865	74,459
8	56.3	250,873	13,313	87,773
9	56.3	260,741	9,868	97,641
10	56.3	268,056	7,315	104,956

 

Trainor
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		133,500
1	50	133,500
2	24	133,500
3	90	133,500
4	82	156,200
5	61.5	201,400
6	61.5	252,611	51,211	51,211
7	61.5	277,959	25,349	76,559
8	61.5	287,678	9,718	86,278
9	61.5	294,882	7,204	93,482
10	61.5	300,221	5,340	98,821

 

Prior
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		169,200
1	50	169,200
2	57	169,200
3	78	169,200
4		163,100
5	61.7	163,100
6	61.7	207,922	44,822	44,822
7	61.7	243,212	35,289	80,112
8	61.7	262,142	18,931	99,042
9	61.7	276,175	14,032	113,075
10	61.7	286,576	10,401	123,476

 

Bice
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	52	113,500
2	96	113,500
3		113,500
4	124	113,500
5	90.7	203,400
6	90.7	288,240	84,840	84,840
7	90.7	348,767	60,527	145,367
8	90.7	378,882	30,116	175,482
9	90.7	401,205	22,323	197,805
10	90.7	417,752	16,547	214,352

 

O’Sullivan
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		148,700
1	48	148,700
2	88	148,700
3	77	148,700
4	103	203,900
5	79.0	268,200
6	79.0	313,410	45,210	45,210
7	79.0	347,807	34,397	79,607
8	79.0	362,683	14,876	94,483
9	79.0	373,710	11,027	105,510
10	79.0	381,884	8,174	113,684

 

Midfielders

 

Levi Ashcroft
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	87	221,700
5	69.8	249,100
6	69.8	269,936	20,836	20,836
7	69.8	300,316	30,379	51,216
8	69.8	315,201	14,885	66,101
9	69.8	326,235	11,034	77,135
10	69.8	334,414	8,179	85,314

 

Knevitt
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		145,800
1	82	145,800
2	58	145,800
3	20	145,800
4		181,200
5	53.3	181,200
6	53.3	166,764	-14,436	-14,436
7	53.3	170,813	4,049	-10,387
8	53.3	197,415	26,602	16,215
9	53.3	217,133	19,718	35,933
10	53.3	231,749	14,616	50,549

 

O’Sullivan
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		199,000
1	51	199,000
2	42	199,000
3	44	199,000
4		207,400
5	45.7	207,400
6	45.7	193,412	-13,988	-13,988
7	45.7	183,781	-9,631	-23,619
8	45.7	196,850	13,069	-10,550
9	45.7	206,537	9,687	-863
10	45.7	213,717	7,180	6,317

 

O’Driscoll
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,000
1	91	198,000
2	95	198,000
3	104	198,000
4	46	274,200
5	84.0	309,800
6	84.0	333,183	23,383	23,383
7	84.0	341,666	8,483	31,866
8	84.0	364,769	23,103	54,969
9	84.0	381,894	17,125	72,094
10	84.0	394,588	12,694	84,788

 

M Reid
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		131,500
1	50	131,500
2	75	131,500
3	106	131,500
4	73	199,100
5	76.0	258,500
6	76.0	304,450	45,950	45,950
7	76.0	325,235	20,785	66,735
8	76.0	341,969	16,734	83,469
9	76.0	354,374	12,404	95,874
10	76.0	363,569	9,195	105,069

 

Lindsay
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,500
1	86	158,500
2	78	158,500
3	9	158,500
4		193,400
5	57.7	193,400
6	57.7	172,857	-20,543	-20,543
7	57.7	179,165	6,308	-14,235
8	57.7	209,358	30,193	15,958
9	57.7	231,738	22,380	38,338
10	57.7	248,328	16,589	54,928

 

Henderson
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		99,100
1	55	99,100
2	72	99,100
3	43	99,100
4	32	148,300
5	50.5	173,500
6	50.5	184,140	10,640	10,640
7	50.5	195,346	11,206	21,846
8	50.5	211,838	16,492	38,338
9	50.5	224,063	12,225	50,563
10	50.5	233,125	9,062	59,625

 

Moraes
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2	52	113,500
3	94	113,500
4	43	113,500
5	63.0	166,800
6	63.0	212,140	45,340	45,340
7	63.0	232,031	19,891	65,231
8	63.0	255,624	23,594	88,824
9	63.0	273,113	17,489	106,313
10	63.0	286,077	12,964	119,277

 

Lalor
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		203,500
1	74	203,500
2	39	203,500
3	45	203,500
4	112	220,759
5	67.5	250,367
6	67.5	284,925	34,558	34,558
7	67.5	320,497	35,572	70,130
8	67.5	327,174	6,677	76,807
9	67.5	332,123	4,949	81,756
10	67.5	335,791	3,668	85,425

 

Rucks

Bzzz

Forwards

 

Hugo Garcia
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		245,800
1	54	245,800
2	25	245,800
3	99	245,800
4	54	260,000
5	58.0	269,800
6	58.0	293,356	23,556	23,556
7	58.0	292,674	-682	22,874
8	58.0	293,939	1,265	24,139
9	58.0	294,876	937	25,076
10	58.0	295,571	695	25,771

 

Davidson
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	39	113,500
2	72	113,500
3	129	113,500
4	54	189,800
5	73.5	252,100
6	73.5	300,370	48,270	48,270
7	73.5	311,591	11,221	59,491
8	73.5	328,537	16,946	76,437
9	73.5	341,098	12,561	88,998
10	73.5	350,409	9,311	98,309

 

Kako
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		149,500
1	62	149,500
2	34	149,500
3	62	149,500
4		163,100
5	52.7	163,100
6	52.7	171,637	8,537	8,537
7	52.7	173,836	2,198	10,736
8	52.7	198,770	24,934	35,670
9	52.7	217,253	18,483	54,153
10	52.7	230,953	13,700	67,853

 

Lynch
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		183,200
1	61	183,200
2		183,200
3	42	183,200
4	37	183,200
5	46.7	196,600
6	46.7	201,337	4,737	4,737
7	46.7	206,913	5,576	10,313
8	46.7	215,323	8,411	18,723
9	46.7	221,558	6,234	24,958
10	46.7	226,179	4,621	29,579

 

Sam PP
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,500
1	18	180,500
2	83	180,500
3	48	180,500
4	74	199,000
5	55.8	236,800
6	55.8	254,182	17,382	17,382
7	55.8	270,495	16,313	33,695
8	55.8	274,512	4,017	37,712
9	55.8	277,489	2,977	40,689
10	55.8	279,696	2,207	42,896

 

 

 Dodgy Advice: Well, any player specific advice from me is probably a bit dodgy, aside from obvious stuff like get Bice. 

 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!