Fallen Premiums – Round 9, 2025

Thanks to the legendary Maximus Gawn propelling me up to 155 overall, I’m once again resisting all urge not to turn this weeks Fallen Premiums into a 1,000 word essay on why the great Maxy is the best ruckman of the modern era. There are many different directions everyone can take their teams in this week, with serious value present on every line (albeit sketchy in the defensive end), and tough decisions like culling Matt Flynn at the forefront. Hopefully when teams are released tonight some decisions are made easier.

 

 

Defenders

James Sicily (HAW, $465.5k, (-$67.4k), 93 AVG, 87 BE) notoriously out of form to start the season off, Sicily has still managed an average of 93 points with plenty of scope to tick that average up. The Hawks skipper has largely played in a friendly defensive role, however some horrendous kicking and butter fingers has seen him largely SC irrelevant to start the season. Some economy has also been eaten up with the arrival of Josh Battle, and the further reliance on Karl Amon to distribute off half back and just in general having a convoluted hawthorn backline that doesn’t rely on Sicily like it once did. As for advanced stats, in 2023 the Hawks skipper went at 82.1% by footy, last season there was a slight drop off to 79.8% and this season that figure is down to a near career low of 67.2%. I brought up Dawson’s horrendous kicking efficiency last week and how champion players generally regress to the mean, and I’m fully expectant of that with Sicily. Looking at the more advanced figures, there is a significant difference between 2022/2023 Sicily (where he averaged 110+) and 2024/2025 Sic, besides from a very dodgy shoulder late in the year however, the 2023 All Australian’s stats are quite similar this year compared to last. Stats such as intercept marks, contested marks, tackles, pressure acts, metres gained, disposals, handball receives, intercept possessions, metres gained, spoils, hardball gets, rebounds 50’s are practically all identical. It’s largely just the turnovers which have increased from 3.7 to 5.3, and the significant dip in kicking efficiency that has hurt Sicily this season. The next two games Hawks play Melbourne and Gold Coast (albeit off a 5 day break in Darwin), but both do rank as highly favourable fixtures for designated kickers. For those priced out of the big hitters in defence and want to take on a discount POD, I do like the Sicily play.

Jack Sinclair (STK, $533.5k, (-$58.7k), 110 AVG, 131 BE) the fixture this week against Carlton isn’t the best on-paper, and with a large breakeven, a three round average against Carlton of 105 points, and an average of 92.2 points at the MCG since 2022. The wise thing to do is truly hold off one more week, let the 2x All Australian bottom out in price before hopping on next week heading into the clash against the Eagles. I’ll also quickly touch on his role, Sincs is back in defence playing what largely was a great SC scoring role for him in past years, and while his last few games haven’t been fantastic, as the fixture opens up I largely expect that to turn around, pencil him in for next week.

Luke Ryan (FRE, $466.4k, (-$161.9k), 87.5 AVG, 81 BE) firstly this is not a pick I’m remotely interested in, especially when there’s players such as Chad Warner at a similar price point. In comparison to Sicily who’s largely been his own worst enemy, Luke Ryan’s main struggles have come largely from a change in Fremantle’s game-plan. As a result stats such as intercept possessions, uncontested marks, spoils, and his possessions in general (both contested and uncontested) are all significantly down from last season. It also appears Luke Ryan tends to score well (yet not to the heights of last season) when Fremantle are boxed in and can’t play the style of football they want too. At the price, there’s maybe a case you can pick Ryan up as cover over the byes and then luxury trade if the pick doesn’t work, but this isn’t a selection I personally like.

Backing it up…
Jeremy McGovern, 510k, 161 BE*
Dan Houston, 497k, 150 BE
Lachie Whitfield, 603k, 139 BE
Jordan Clark, 514k, 130 BE

 

Midfielders

Noah Anderson (GCS, $539.7k, (-$35.2k), 108.4 AVG, 123 BE) finds himself at a very friendly price for non-owners to start to consider the Gold Coast captain. The consistency in scoring has been something owners last season were not accustomed to, as Anderson (and GC as a whole) struggled significantly on the road. As for this season we haven’t quite witnessed those Anderson spike games, and with some soft kill fixtures I do think that’s a slight cause for concern with the pick (136 v Eagles, 109 v Dees, 113 v North, 105 v Tigs). The flip side comes from Anderson having tonned in 6/7 games (only sub-tonning off the back of a Jordon tag). The price is very friendly, the fixtures however aren’t amazing (Dogs & Hawks @TIO, Saints @MARV, Freo, Cats @KP, bye), but for the long haul, I don’t think you can go wrong with the Noah selection.

Jack Steele (STK, $473.6k, (-$111.6k), 89.3 AVG, 54 BE) I’m sick of talking about Josh Dunkley and Jordan Dawson (both are good buys this week, with my preference being Dawson due to the congestion of the Lions midfield, along with the Crows fixtures), so onto the Saints skipper. With two tons on the trot against Fremantle and Brisbane, Steele has suddenly entered my radar. A very frustrating own for a lot of SuperCoach players in past seasons (well after his super-premo days at least), the Saints fixture is absolutely cherry ripe heading into that bye. Carlton at the G this week, however the Saints then go on and play the Eagles, Suns and Dees before having quite the friendly bye sharing it only with Freo in round 13. The obvious concern comes from (much like Tom Stewart these days), something just continuing to go wrong with Jack Steele. Whether it’s mysterious taping that occurs, or “Jack Steele was in the rehab group at training,” past owners of the once Man of Steele are left anxious week to week. At the price, with the role and incoming fixtures, Steele is by no means a bad selection, but definitely a high risk, high reward one.

Limbo land…
Matt Rowell, 524k, 186 BE
George Hewett, 634k, 166 BE
Nick Daicos, 645k, 165 BE
Adam Treloar, 628k, 163 BE
Zak Butters, 704k, 142 BE
Andy Brayshaw, 654k, 140 BE
Tom Green, 551k, 139 BE

 

Rucks

Tim English (WBD, $542.8k, (-$39.1k), 103.4 AVG, 53 BE) I’ll firstly begin by saying English (much like Xerri and TDK who are both popular picks) has the first bye which is only three games away. Going past that, the Dogs have a rough game this week having Gold Coast in Darwin, but more importantly English has Jarrod Witts who has largely been a tough matchup for most rucks. Following that, the Dogs do have the Dons and Cats who will most likely be without Rhys Stanley. Besides a poor outing against Tristan Xerri in round 1 (which even Gawn couldn’t solve that puzzle), English has managed a 109.8 average since. Many are looking at Marshall and rightfully so, he’s heavily discounted and has a friendly bye. But English really does offer as a nice POD. Two games against the Dons still to come, the Eagles, Cats, Tigs, Saints, and a large portion of the remaining games at Marvel Stadium. The added cavalry with the likes of Bontempelli and Treloar also having returned will also heavily aid English who’s averaging a career high in HO’s.

Timberrr…
Brodie Grundy, 534k, 184 BE
Toby Nankervis, 524k, 130 BE

 

Forwards

Chad Warner (SYD, $488.2k, (-$71.5k), 97.8 AVG, 26 BE) touched on the pick last week, but now passed what should have been a down fixture let’s dive into the pick with more depth. Firstly, on a surface level I was convinced the Warner wasn’t a player you could read, but let’s have a look at his CBA’s to SC correlation since the beginning of the 2024 season.

Below 60% CBA’s (12 game sample size) 97.3 SC points
60%+ (21 game sample size) 104.6 SC points
70%+ (11 game sample size) 112 SC points

Surprisingly, in that 21 game sample size of 60%+ CBA’s, there were only three games I’d rule as stinkers. One was via a Bedford tag (72 points), another was when Richmond upset the Swans last year (73 points), and the most puzzling was a putrid 38 points against the Dogs late last season (which is made more baffling because only a handful of games earlier he managed 144 points against the Dogs at Marvel). On the opposite end, in that same 21 sample size, the Chad also showed that amazing ceiling, against Carlton he went 172, against the Pies he churned out a 164. And then most surprisingly, 140 points as the Swannies took home the win against GWS this past weekend, (who have largely been a nightmare matchup for inside mids). With best 22 scoring, the potential to loop Warner, along with the price tag & breakeven, if you’re interested this is the week to jump on. My biggest query would be if the 2024 All Australian remains at the 70%+ CBA mark that he’s had the last three weeks, and at that price, it’s a risk definitely worth taking if you’re in need of a discount mid / fwd. I’ll also quickly touch on Izak Rankine, while barely a Fallen Premium, I believe he is the best buy this week for non-owners, grab him before he’s out of reach.

Forward thinking…
Nic Martin, 523k, 156 BE
Luke Jackson, 565k, 153 BE