Merry Christmas to everyone in the SupercoachTalk community! As has become tradition, the powers that be at Supercoach HQ have come through with an early present for everyone with a Gold subscription in the form of the Team Picker.
SCT will come through with our own version of the Team Picker in due time. But before then, those of you who have coughed up for the stats should feel free to post your own first draft right here. First rolling lockout starts in 86 days and counting….
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Defenders
J Lloyd, R Laird, Z Williams
L Jones, W Gould, J Wehr
H Edwards, B Walker
Midfielders
L Neale, C Oliver, Z Merrett
T Mitchell, M Rowell
W Phillips, B Campbell, L, Pedlar
H Sharp, N O’Driscoll, E Gulden
Rucks
B Grundy, R O’Brien
M Lynch
Forwards
J Dunkley, R Marshall, I Heeney
E Holland’s, D Robertson, A Perkins
F Macrae, J Rowe
5k left. Rookies are just estimates at this stage. Not really convinced on Dunkley and Heeney.
Could go Rowell to Hately, then ROB to Gawn (9k left), but 751k for Gawn just feels like too much.
Ranked 839 last year in my 2nd year, hoping to go better in 2021, would appreciate any advice.
FYI: Rowell priced at $495,100
The only question is do I put the C on him round 1.
Decisions.. Decisions..
47.6k left over
DEF: Lloyd, Whitfield, Docherty, Clark, DGB, Chapman, Madden, Winder
MID: Neale, Oliver, Rowell, Yeo, Heppell, Bruhn, McInnes, Gulden, Cocky, Connolly, M.Rioli
RUCK: Gawn, Marshall, Pruess
FWD: Danger, Dusty, Greene, Campbell, Hollands, F.Macrae, D.Robertson, Treacy
Most rookie picks taken with a grain of salt as most were picked purely on DPP status. Can definitely shuffle them around to make room for another premo. Grundy is the most glaring omission at this stage but can flip Marshall into the forward line if Pruess is popping off.
Does anyone have a spreadsheet!! HaHaHa
Oh bearded one – it will come as soon as I get access to the updated data fields!! – Bye Planner will be back as usual … but some other clever boffins out there may well have earlier / better access than me!!
Def: Lloyd, Laird, Howe, Williams, Jones, Gollant, Gould, Laurie
Mid: Oliver, Bont, Cripps, Rowell, Powell, Valente, O’Driscoll, MacRae, Cook, Gulden, Carroll
Ruc: Gawn, NicNat, Treacy
Fwd: Danger, Marshall, Dusty, Heeney, Worrell, Jones, Smith, Rowe
Rookies speculative.
14 keepers…just need to nail my trades and I win the lot
Defenders
Rory Laird $564,800
Jordan Ridley $547,700
Zac Williams $458,600
Lachlan Jones $139,800
Dylan Roberton $139,700
Will Gould $123,900
Jez McLennan $123,900
Bailey Laurie $117,300
Midfielders
Lachie Neale $721,800
Clayton Oliver $656,700
Zach Merrett $620,900
Matt Crouch $594,700
Patrick Cripps $523,700
Tom Powell $153,300
Luke Valente $123,900
Reef McInnes $117,300
Ely Smith $123,900
Jack Carroll $117,300
Connor Downie $117,300
Rucks
Brodie Grundy $648,200
Rowan Marshall $557,200
Josh Treacy $102,400
Forwards
Josh Dunkley $560,200
Dustin Martin $541,600
Dayne Zorko $525,800
Isaac Heeney $454,500
Finlay Macrae $126,300
Nakia Cockatoo $123,900
Will Kelly $135,400
Miles Bergman $123,900
Just wondering how punters will attack the v/c option with only the first six rounds announced in terms of timing. Early daws it looks like a Freo v loop is the way to go, but after that ?
After round 6, we usually have a couple rookies who’ve been dropped anyway, so we can probably just loop them instead.
Just checking if being a Herald Sun digital subscriber gets you access to the 2021 team picker.
It doesnt look like it from what I can see but I am on my phone using the app from last year.
The link in the herald Sun article didnt work either
I am in via my laptop. First draft done !!
Got it sorted out now
Nathan’s Gunz
Will probably sit on this till JLT
Laird, Whitfield, Mcdonald, Williams, Wher, Gould (Bianco, Worrell)
Oliver, Merrett, Mitchell, M. Crouch, Cripps, Kemp, Smith, Valente (Mead, Berry, Davies)
Grundy, Preuss (Treacy)
Dangerfield, Sidebottom, D.Martin, Phillips, Kelly, Cockatoo (Rowe, Poulter)
I don’t get the Rowell love at that price
Especially having only played 4 career games, and suffering the same shoulder injury that neutered GAJ. The kid is an absolute jet, but there’s too many unknowns to start him in SC this year.
HH…with Sic out to start, he might just get a gig.
oops trying to reply to HH’s comment on D.G Barras
The love stems from what he is priced at eg 85 and what coaches feel he will make over the next season eg 105. Under these figures Rowell would be 25pts under
The thought is even at his price he is 20pts under so you will get great points and value increase for an upgrade later in the season
First draft done whilst watching the NBA season opener, all rookies are just 123k placeholders. $62k remaining.
DEF:
Lloyd, Laird, McDonald, Z Williams, rookie, rookie (rookie, rookie)
MID:
Neale, Oliver, Titch, Cripps, Heppell, rookie, rookie, rookie (rookie, rookie, rookie)
RUC:
Gawn, Grundy (rookie)
FWD:
Marshall, Dusty, Heeney, rookie, rookie, rookie (rookie, rookie)
Picks I’m iffy on so far:
Laird – will he keep his mid role? If he does, he should be a lock for a 105-108 average.
Grundy – last year was injury-affected, so he should be undervalued at this price. But with Collingwood’s club troubles, I’m hesitant picking any of their players this year.
Cripps – hopefully last year was a blip, and he goes back to his 115+ scoring.
Heeney – will he just be parked in the forward line again this season and doomed to a 90 average?
16 rookies…thats a lot of trades needed to get to premos. Reckon you might need a few mid pricers instead of ubers.
13 keepers ain’t bad, people usually have 13-15 keepers in their starting squads.
I’m bullish on all your iffy picks except Heeney. Very confident that the rest upside outweighs their downside
Same here, but there’s not much else I like for an F3 this year.
The team is fine for a first draft and most of the players you have know will stay
Laird does appear to have a mid role wrapped up for the season based on comment by coaches he is training with the mids
Grundy especially had trouble with the bubble. Grundy is a sociable person and loves to interact and go out to places. Expect a better Grundy for the season depending on 3rd, 4th waves etc
Cripps was injury effected and a lot of close attention from taggers and in general. I feel Cripps feel be better but how much? and i dont have a specific reason for Cripps as to why he will be better. hmmm
bAps, that amount of rookies are fine as long as you have 10-14 keepers and on field 6-8 rookies and the rookies on field are high rookies 200k plus, the level of success with them greatly exceeds the 170k rookies.
You also want specifically 170k rookies on the bench as you don’t want to have to much money on the bench. 170k’s let you fill bench on minimum spend
Your iffy picks are generally good, i ain’t sure of Heeney and think you would be better off with T Phillips, De Goey why has started pre-season looking his best ever. The talk last couple weeks is Rozzee set for a big breakout and is 80k less than Heeney
I think you’re confusing afl-fantasy prices with supercoach prices for rookie in regards to bench rookies.
Andy McGrath, Cunnington and prestia… too much mid price mayhem to squeeze into the one midfield??
(I think they’re all way underpriced… of course I will note Cunnington’s and prestia’s fitness)
Jez McLennan is always one of the most picked players at this time of the year. Does anyone know what he looks like? Does he even exist?
Does anyone know why Luke McDonald outperformed his previous seasons in the second half of last year?
Did he have a role change? Did he take his game up a level? Was it a purple patch?
Thanks all!
He moved to a half-back distributer role. Absolutely killed it, I’ll most likely start him this season while he’s underpriced.
Excellent thanks! I’ll be starting him too now that you’ve helped!
After another debacle in BBL Supercoach, thanks Messrs Carey and Lynn, I have my final (LOL !!!) draft for 2021
Laird Howe Rich Lukosius Newman R/R/R
Neale Macrae Cripps Rowell Caldwell Heppell Phillips (NM) Hutchings R/R/R
Marshall Preuss (B Williams)
Dunkley Dusty Ziebell Daniher Impey R/R/R
Cash $308.3 which with my 12 (arguable) rookies, allows $1863.6 to be allocated still, or $155.3k per rookie, or another keeper depending on rookies available.
Taking the gamble on getting Gawn at some later stage, plenty of risk/reward in Heppell Daniher/Impey/Ziebell/Caldwell. May start Draper over Preuss.
I can’t understand the love on this site for Heppell. The perennial under achiever riddled with injury which has slowed him down. More likely to be a half back than midfielder.
Guaranteed best 22. Will make money. Can score big.
It’s not who he is, it’s what he can offer for his price. After 5-6 rounds you can upgrade him, or keep him for half the season to avoid donuts.
I have him in my current lineup but I fully expect him to breakdown before round 1 so in reality he’s just a placeholder for Hately or Bailey Scott depending on preseason.
I heard somewhere that heppell wont be a mid in 2021 and that he’ll move into the backline to try and cover some of the damage done by the mass exodus of talent from Essendone. If his body holds up he could be a high scoring option off half back like Lloyd
First Draft of A Hundred. Keeper in Capitals.
DEF. LAIRD DANIEL WILLIAMS WITHERDON Jones Laurie (wehr highmore)
MIDS TITCH GAFF CRIPPS ROWELL Caldwell Heppell Hately Powell ( 3 rookie)
RK GRUNDY Pruess ( Williams)
FWD MARSHALL DUSTY HEENY ROZEE worrell rosman ( macrae rowe)
Rory Laird $564,800
Luke McDonald $512,900
Zac Williams $458,600
Alex Witherden $456,100
Wayne Milera $312,200
Jacob Wehr $117,300
Lachlan Jones [E] $139,800
Dylan Roberton $139,700
Tom Mitchell [C] $610,000
Matt Crouch $594,700
Sam Walsh $543,300
Patrick Cripps $523,700
Matt Rowell $495,100
Dyson Heppell $319,100
Jackson Hately $310,300
Tom Powell $153,300
Luke Pedlar $162,300
Mark Hutchings $157,600
Finlay Macrae [E] $126,300
Brodie Grundy [V] $648,200
Braydon Preuss $303,000
Josh Treacy $102,400
Isaac Heeney $454,500
Toby Greene $448,400
Jye Caldwell $348,600
Ben Brown $260,300
Jack Ziebell $257,900
Jarman Impey $212,800
Nakia Cockatoo [E] $123,900
James Rowe $117,300
Hey, Randy. I can see the structure you’re going for, but it’s a hard pass from me. Got to be more selective with your midpricers. It’s not about fielding as few rookies as possible by opting for every popular 200-300k option.
I’ll take it line by line:
Starting with your DEF. Laird and McDonald are solid picks, but Williams, Witherden and Milera are all dice rolls. I’d consider at most one of them at this stage. If the pre-season suggests otherwise (eg. Witherden in Hurn’s role, Williams looking limber, etc.), then reverse course – but for now 3 awkwardly priced, dice roll DEFs is compromising your structure.
Don’t have any major objections to any of your MID picks, will be starting several of them myself, but starting 7 non-rookie starting MIDs will be an issue. Leaves less room for cash generating rookies and forces you to pass on Neale, Oliver, a Big Dog, etc. I’d probably shelve Crouch and wait and see on Hately and Heppell. For now, fill with Neale and rookies.
If you’re set on Preuss as R2, it should be at the expense of Grundy not Gawn.
Your FWD picks are all interesting, but again, you’re leaving yourself little to no room for rookies and you’ve priced yourself out of grabbing Danger, Dusty, Marshall or Dunkley at F1. Say Impey and Ziebell don’t pan out and your F7 or 8 get dropped, that’s gg. You’ll down several corrective trades and behind the 8 ball.
Again, the midpricers you’ve listed could very well end up to be great picks (hard to know at this stage) but it’s not worth compromising rookie cash generation and proven premiums.
Solid picks, just need to be more selective and cognizant of how they impact your structure.
Catch you over the pre-season.
Hey GD,
Agreed, i probably should have explained myself earlier. Some of the mid pricers will become rookies/premiums. I’m just waiting until those rookies present themselves and see which mid pricers perform in the preseason.
Until then I’ve just put in the mid pricers that im considering.
Appreciate the feedback!
Ah, gotcha. Np.
Best of luck.
Completely agree with everything except Gawn over Grundy GD. If you pick Preuss it has to be at Gawn’s expense.
Is Roberton on the list in the hope he will play again, or for salary ap or mentoring reasons?
Greetings all. My name is Matt….I’m actually Wighty’s son and he has convinced me to finally come on board with all this chatter though I have been playing for a few years. My only SC claim to fame is coming 2nd overall once……for one week !! I’m going to join some of the leagues this year using SOW@SCT…..I’ll leave you to work out what SOW stands for !!
My first team post, so please be gentle.
Laird, Lloyd, Rich, Z Williams, Lukosius, Wehr (L Jones Laurie)
Neale, Macrae, Cripps, Caldwell, Heppell, W Phillips Hutchings Powell (Cockatoo Oea Downie)
Marshall Gawn (Treacy)
Dunkley Martin Ziebell Daniher Impey Rowe (Macrae Durdin)
Lots of mid price value this year, and mids obviously main up grade targets. Oea is a line e loop for early part of season, and Treacy c loop. Cash $38.1
Greetings Son of Whighty!
I love the idea of batting deep in defence this year, but… I’d personally go all in. So many good defenders to make a back six out of. You don’t want to be carrying almost premiums that your stuck with while a lot of other people have all the best ones. If your gonna bat deep you have to be sure there the best, or ridiculously good value.
Thanks for that Tof. Loving this place already. Looking forward to getting into a few leagues with the old fella and towelling him up.
Can you suggest some actual changes given my cash limitations ?
So just my personal view. THIS YEAR, your 6 defenders name themselves out of a close pool of LLOYD, RYAN, WHITFIELD, LAIRD, RIDLEY, DANIEL, STEWART, MCDONALD and MAYNARD.
So… Lloyd and Whitfield will be to popular to leave out(important because they can go HUGE and win head to head match ups)
Ryan and Mcdonald have huge ceilings and could go to another level this season. Stewart and Daniel are good for a flat consistent 100 every week. And the others are all good selections to back them up. Except Laird(just due toa possible role change, but he is proven in the past and should back up again this season.
I’d drop Williams, Lukosious and Rich and put in any 2 of the above mentioned and DGB(popular pick)(I’d go Whitfield and either Stewart/Daniel for reliability or Ryan for ceiling.
I’m not saying Lukosious or Williams are bad picks just in THIS SEASON i don’t think they will cut it.
Just my 2 cents.
I’d also add Howe in to Batting Deep options. Freak injury, averaged 120 points even with the injury and thus only had 4 games so will come at a substantial discount.
Maynard’s scores were likely inflated by the absence of Howe, but can’t prove or disprove by how much.
Actually, if anything, Howe going down deflated Maynard.
Maynard scored 104, 105, 125 and 118 (113 av.) in those first four games, then averaged 98 from rounds 5 – 18.
On paper you’d think they’d rob each other, but they seemed to have had great synergy in those first four games; Howe exclusively on kicks in, Maynard linking up and distributing and then both feasting on D50 turnovers and intercepts.
Small sample size to go off, but still think both are solid picks.
Certainly going deep in the back looks a good option, but I think Grainger Barrass might well be worth a look. if he’s the intercept marker that the draft though he was there will be some very good coin in him.
LLOYD, RYAN, WHITEFIELD, MCDONALD
Rookie x 5.
NEALE, STEEL, OLIVER, MACRAE.
rookie x 7(only 1 more rookie than average)
GRAWNDY -treacy
DUNKLY, MARSHALL, fallen premiums and rookies.
if, and a big one, rookies permit this is my ideal starting side. Otherwise trim macrae or steel to rowell(if a very popular pick) for more dollars.
Have about 140k on average for rookies. Left over funds go into Heppell, or fallen forwards depending on rookie availability.
Tof…..if ever there is a year to go with fallen prems or mid pricers, this is it. So, I don’t dislike your strategy. Tricky part is getting the right ones !!
That can be, is said every season(fallen premiums).
I want 10+ 100’s every week and i think these guys have the best chance of doing it.
No more 500k+ premiums scoring multiple sub 80’s!! Sick of it.
I’ve been over a lot of rookies and they seem at this stage to be fairly available so far this pre season(researched multiple sites) AFL, AGE, SUN and other supercoach sites. I think i will get there with this side comfortably.
But since i know you always ask…
Rookie watch list.(more to add) but these ones came up multiple times.
DEF-Grainger barass, Wehr, Jones, Laurie, Gould.
Mid-Campbell, Pedlar, Powell, Kemp, Cockatoo, Mcinnes,O’Driscoll, Perkins+more.
Fwd-Mcdonald, Hutchings, Macrae,Bergman, Rowe, Bowey, Cox + more.
Still early so all these are being kept an eye on you could comfortabl add another 2 to each line.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-club-by-club-guide-gap-year-draft-as-clubs-pick-sight-unseen-20201209-p56m3b.html
A rookie guide.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-teams-round-1-afl-draft-2020-young-stars-most-likely-to-debut-in-round-1-at-every-club-lachlan-jones-denver-graingerbarras-beau-mccreery/news-story/1a8c24a133687428c4ac1f9d5b4612a7
Also rookies
You’d hope Gould gets a go this year after so many were all over him last year.
I dunno though. I don’t see it if they move Tom McCartin down back with the arrival of Logan McDonald
I’ll most likely be starting Logan Mcdonald. Got a gut feeling about him.
A few iterations in but I like the structure if I do decide to potentially overspend on the absolute elite scorers of 2020 and previous seasons.
$6400 remaining.
D: Lloyd, Laird, Docherty, Grainger-Barrass, Jones, Highmore, Gould, Wehr
M: Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Mitchell, Cripps, Bianco, Cockatoo, Berry, McInnes, Downie, Davies
R: Gawn, Grundy, Treacy
F: Dunkley, Marshall, Heeney, Robertson, Macrae, Rowe, Durdin, Laurie
nice team but as usual it will depend on how many rookies actually get a gig in the first few rounds…
Agonizing over whether to select Grawndy as set and forget rucks and captaincy options. Or to compromise in the rucks and pick other uber premos like Lloyd, Neale and Danger. Also not liking the rookie options to provide cash generation.
Current thoughts:
D. Laird, Whitfield, McDonald, Williams, Jones, Wehr (Bianco, Gould)
M. Oliver, Merrett, Mitchell, Cripps, Heppell, Hately, Powell, Valente (Shipley, Byrnes, Downie)
R. Gawn, Grundy (Treacy)
F. Marshall, Zorko, Heeney, Hutchings, Cockatoo, Rowe (McRae, Honey)
$25K remaining
Not comfortable with so many injury prone players.
Cut Williams and heppell, upgrade zorko and heeny to danger and dunkly.
Lots of rookies to pencil in for the cash.
At the start of the year selecting grawndy always makes you wince, but after a month you’ll think it was a no brainer.
Thoughts please:
Why are we choosing Preuss over Hickey?
Heppell too much of a risk?
Marchbank, runner or tagger?
Any comments on RD1 rookies?
Note; haven’t made any changes since last night, well overdue for a team change.
You choose preuss so that when you realize not selecting Gawn was a mistake you have a lot more people to empathize with LOL.
Heppell Not to much of a risk most likely a good choice for stepping stone at M5-M6.
Marchbank is always injured and too many good defence options to worry about him.
I posted a link above for some much needed rookie info. Not super helpful but good to get a watch list going.
Question on R3. What are people thoughts on starting a potential cash generator at R3.
Some options:
Meeks (Freo)
Hayes (Port)
Flynn (GWS)
Some general thoughts
Meeks didn’t play even when Darcy got hurt.
Port refused to trade Hayes and Lycett has been dropped in the past
Flynn… well the GWS medical staff seem less than capable of keeping people on the park and Preuse’s back up is Mumford.
Coleman Jones for the tigers is another one, but he is suspended until round 5 and has an elevated price. (The Tigers played Balta as back up ruck in the grand final)
My thoughts, Cash generators at R3 (starting) are a waste of a loop hole.
You get your loop for 102k and can swap him for marshall.
Also if a rookie plays they usually only play 1 or 2 games in the ruck as cover or there being tried out. So basically your paying extra for the loop hole player.
Now trading in a R3 rookie on the bubble is a different story… That is a great trade in, there generally sticking around for a bit and post a couple of hundreds making at leased 250k.
Start with the cheap loop. But trade in a rookie on the bubble when you can.
Because Hickey has a history of 2/3 of 3/5 of sfa?
Honestly if you’re after bargain rucks I can’t see him being one of the better choices
Even allowing for my bomber bias, if Heppell is fit and going, he’s my first pick at the price.
Thanks Wighty, (FOSOW)
Any Carlton analysts for Marchbank, or Weagles for Hickey comments?
RE: Marchbank
Way I see it, at that price you want job security and consistent scoring – you maybe take a little less total cash generation, but in return you get better on-field scores most weeks.
Marchbank’s job security is tied pretty tightly to his ability to stay on the park, which is questionable. If he gets injured, expect a long layoff too, not a short 1-2 week recovery. If he’s fit, I expect we’ll play him as the loose interceptor to support Weitering/Jones.
His scoring has been, historically, in the 60-80 range. You’ll get the odd 90+, as well as a few 40’s. He peaked in 2017 at $376k, and starts this season at $275k.
Comes down to rookie selections – if there are enough named for round one, bank the money and use it elsewhere. Marchy won’t score much more than a solid defensive rookie anyway, and he comes with a significant injury risk.
If you need a mid pricer, I’d look at Fantasia. Comes with a lot of the same risks, but is slightly cheaper, has Mid/Fwd elibigibility, has a higher ceiling and plays for a stronger side who are likely to use him better than Essendon did.
Cheers BB just received your recommendations.
Will probably look cheaper.
FOSOW….I get it !!
Will be tinkering a bit with this over the coming weeks for sure, as I’m not completely in love with it.
DEF: Lloyd, Laird, McDonald, Menadue, Jones, Wehr (McLennan, Gould)
MID: Neale, Macrae, Petracca, Mitchell, Cripps, Phillips, Pedlar, Cockatoo (Powell, Downie, Davies)
RUC: Gawn, Preuss (Treacy)
FWD: Dunkley, Marshall, Zorko, Brown, Macrae, Rowe (Durdin, Poulter)
Feels maybe a touch heavy in the midfield, but I’m not seeing many budget premiums that I feel safe with. Would like to go better than Menadue at D4, but would need to find the funds. Rucks are what they are, Preuss is a stepping stone to Grundy or sideways to a breakout, Marshall can cover via DPP. Forward line is the one I feel best about.
Hickey is cheaper than Preuss and less injury prone(?)
After all the hard work from the analytical presentations (take a bow TOF) and other guidance Wighty (FOSOW; pronounced Fossil) and Josh in Planning, i finally had a team that was maybe lookin’ the goods for final tweaking before round 1,……..it was then i looked at the byes……..Ahh, well, it was good while it lasted…
Are bye rounds out ?? I thought we only had rds 1-6 ??
For fixture update try : resources.afl.com.au or via afl.com.au and scroll down to you see statements and click afl fixture.
FOSOW pronounced Fossil ?? is that French or some other dialect…Irish perhaps ?
A thought for all. When posting teams for discussion, should we not also include remaining bank ? Its a discipline (Tony !!) that forces us to be realistic.
Later on, most non premiums are place holders.
If you actually ask for advise on your team and not just a like the look of, yes you should provide bank balance.
Brace yourselves if you have Grawny and Marshall Rd 14 bye.
Rds 12 13 14 ATM I have 9/6/15 byes.
Think early points overide adjusting your player selections for the byes.
Also one or all of those 3 could be injured by the byes forcing a change anyway. I’d rather start them and be able to downgrade to anyone rather than trying to get them in with all the other carnage that happens every year.
People seem to forget that if grawndy have a quiet game they will generally bounce back huge 150+. They only bottom out for one week. If your facing carnage on other lines you will miss their low price.
I learnt that this season, I waited a round on a trade for a better price and by the next round I had so many other fires to fight the moment was lost.
“Opportunity Cost” is big in super coach. People don’t give enough heed to the 2 or 3 trades a round restrictions.
I always spend plenty of time on byes .after all they do represent 10% of the total,but I only include keepers and near keepers .I have 12 real prems (over 500k ) plus one mid pricer (up to 500k) By the byes I will have 18 premos and as close to 6 6 6 as possible but not over 7.. It was on this site 2019 ,maybe who wrote it can elaberate At present I sit on -4 missing R12 2 missing R13 and 7 FOR R14 that is I have 9 prems playind in R12 11 in R13 and only 6 at present in R14 meaning MELB ADEL SAINTS SYDNEY FREO and COLL will be hard to select luckily none are on my radar Getting the right structure from R1 is paramount to a good start and year My present structure is 4 deep in DEF 5 deep MIDS 2 Best RUCKS and 1 only in the FWD ,that line being the hardest to read but full of cheap fallen midpricers ( if you like)– Ben BROWN Ziebell Franklin Butters and Danaher I will couple these with Marshall and have Dusty in the mids for cover.I would expect all my 12 prems to be capable of toning up regularly whereas near prem players are hit and miss sorry to beat my own drum but unfortunately I take it too seriously good luck all NDD (Neil Demons Delight)
NDD…I would love to have your confidence in the SC Gods not devastating my plans….18 premos by the byes !!??
Yes thanks for your thoughts Wighty S/C gods can be cruel .Last year I managed to carry 11 out of 12 prems to the end and most years is similar. I would expect to trade in a minimum of 5 prems by R 12 18 is very possible but I see your point injuries suspensions resting will all happen Usually we trade in prems in the first two byes making 18 by R 14 well on the cards if all goes well The problem is R14 will be loaded 3 top rucks Lloyd Ryan Steele and Oliver being popular If you select them all and had 18 prems it is easy to see 11 prems is way too few hence why keeping an eye on byes early is paramount. I have 6 with no steele I welcome feedback as not having Steele pre bye costs a lot of points too What’s the solution ? Tough gig supercoach,that’s why we play it NDD
The SC gods giveth and take away. Except last year when I had 6 dees/dons players r3 and Gawn as c when that round was abandoned. Never recovered. I’ve learnt not to even plan beyond a hopefully balanced starting team, trying to get the rookies right, and some corrective trades by start of SC season. My problem at the moment is r13…some work to do. I’m going Gawn/Preuss in rucks with Marshall fwd dpp with Treacy who is also also c loop. Re Steele, you could add half a dozen other names…can’t have them all to start.
I actually have only ten bona fide keepers, but a number of fallen/mid pricers….these could become d5/6…Duggan and Lukosious, m7/8 Heppell and Caldwell, or f 5/6 Daniher and Impey Caldwell. At worst, they should all be stepping stones. Ziebell also on radar.
However, as we know, the final result will be completely different !!
ahhhhh Wighty, every year I’m sure you say you should learn and always start with Gawn / Grundy …
PS I’m just your little nagging voice inside your head … and stand ready to belt you again!!
Steele is my mystery too DD.
Checked last years stats and “viewed” IMO, a few tagging games.
Crouch is missing for the first few weeks, so l’m wondering what role he will have then, and whether it will stick or be changed when Crouch finally plays.
greetings Chamelon Steele’s role with Crouch there worries meand Grundys HBA with a mid full of untried kids also Both are out at present filled with NN and Lyons .Much better bye structure and cheaper NDD
Greetings DD,
If we use Daicos as an example and swap the assumed fwds with h/fwds and cement Cox to the goal square, Collingwood should hopefully finish 9th. LOL
I see Daicos as the replacement on baller with 1 or 2 of last years rookies stepping in to a wing and IC.
Remember how many so called first game rookies we thought were “certaintys” to start last year? (Swans, Pies, etc….yes GC an exception)
We might see the stick armed rookies sitting out again at the start of this season, but I don’t think Collingwood will be as bad off as other clubs.
ps I’m a Swanneez fan but Grundy atm still looks feasible.
Chameleon I think Grawndy is still an exciting mix wih only ROB and forgotten NicNAC challenging Gawn and NN is my present mix Daics ,as good as he will be is no Treloar but Grundy has never been a top tap ruck relying more on his skill around the ground Still need to give the rucks thought.Swans unfortunately will be keeping the maggies company at the rear SORRY but purely my humble opinion DD
Cheers DD,……Hopefully that’s still above North, Essendon and Adelaide at least…..LOL
Seriously? You say that Grundy has never been a top tap ruckman.
Grundy isn’t as good as Max at rucking but the difference in tap ruck stats is minimal, to suggest that Grundy isn’t a top tap ruckman would suggest that Gawn isn’t a top tap ruckman either.
In 2020 Max ave 32.5 HO p/game Grundy Ave 31.5
Max ave 10.8 HTA Grundy 8.7
Gawn Career Average Hitouts 35.2
Gawn Career Average Hitouts to advantage 11.6
Grundy Career Average Hitouts 31.8
Grundy Career Average Hitouts to advantage 9.2
Grundy Career disposals p/game 17.2
Gawn Career disposals p/game 14.1
2020 Hitouts to Advantage totals
Grundy 166
Gawn 149
NicNat 145
Witts 144
ROB 137
In 2020 Oliver ave 4.1 stoppage clearances p/game Treloar ave 3.9. Gawn isn’t far ahead of Grundy
Where do I find a draw that shows these byes so deep into the season ?? I thought fixture was only rds 1-6 so far ?
https://www.afl.com.au/fixture?Competition=1&CompSeason=34&MatchTimezone=MY_TIME&Regions=22&ShowBettingOdds=1&GameWeeks=1&Teams=1&Venues=13#byround
Got it. Now to fix the 13 onfield byes I have for round 13 !!
Hey guys,
Does anyone know when the official launch of AFL SuperCoach comes out for non-gold members??
I think maybe late January, Jack.
Lloyd Laird Howe Jones Gould Weir Bench Bianco Highmore
Steele Oliver Merrett Mitchell Fyfe Cripps Phillips Powell Bench Pedlar Valente Davies .
Gawn Grundy Bench Treacy
Heeney Cameron Ziebell Macrae Cockatoo Rowe Bench Bergman Laurie
9.7k left over thoughts
Nice looking side, Marty. I like it. Haven’t spared any expense on your DEF and RUC picks, which will definitely pay off.
Though I’d consider ditching one MID premo and bolstering your FWD line though with one of Dunkley, Danger, Marshall, etc. Opens up a spot for a MID rookie to come through and Ziebell at F3 might be a bit dicey.
Best of luck.
Hi Marty Basically a real solid team but too many defensive rookies who are only slim chances to play and will be hard to find The mid rookies are by far the easiest to find.I counted at least 10 capable of cracking an early debut For what it’s worth i would shore up the defense with one possibly two prems at the expense of your mids Fyfe and Cripps to Luke MacDonald and Ryan would be worth thinking of . The Cameron pick is a gem and one I haven’t seen yet .He could set you up as geelong’s game suits him best of luck my friend DD
Worst case he likely nets 150k. Best case he’ll ave 100 a week.
No brainer for mine.
What price is hickey
$261,100
Laird, Rich, Williams, Wehr, DGB, Jones (Gould, Laurie)
Fyfe, Adams, Cripps, Taranto, Yeo, Phillips, Powell, Perkins (Davies, Downie, Valente)
Gawn, Grundy (Treacy)
Danger, Zorko, Dunkley, Marshall, Cockatoo, Rowe (Macrae, Durdin)
Leaves 44k in the bank
Also toying with swapping Gawn for Marshall, Sidebottom FWD and Oliver instead of Yeo – that leaves 34k in the bank
Hello Jordz, my feedback is,
Williams, Fyfe, Yeo, Zorko = INJURIES at some stage
Taranto after 2020 is on my never again list
Good luck
Haynes Howe Docherty Williams Milera Grainger-Barrass (Jones Wehr)
Neale Cripps Rowell Yeo Heppell Phillips Campbell Perkins (Powell Carroll Davies)
Gawn Preuss (Comben)
Dangerfield Marshall Martin Franklin Hollands Kelly (Cockatoo Rowe)
Used most of the cap, have pretty good scope for most of the rookies playing and hopefully making some cash. Will monitor pre season form and injuries, Buddy being an obvious example.
Def: Lloyd Williams Burton Milera Jones Gould (Highmore Wehr)
Mid: Neale Oliver Bont Cripps Cunnington Kemp RCD Downie (Davies Bianco Stephens)
Ruc: Gawn Preuss (Treacy)
Fwd: Dangerfield Dunkley Marshall Martin Daniher Rowe (Cockatoo Jones)
$48,400 left over to be disbursed around the rookies.
Every year in the back six the top guys lose money, and some guy emerges from the low mid pricers to be top tier. I’m giving myself two shots at picking that guy and I believe significantly lowering my risk. It’s not like Milera or Burton will lose money at that price. Think of them as low interest government bonds that could blow up if I strike oil or a war breaks out or something.
Mids are all what they are – I want to get a look at Bont in the new Dogs midfield but he was also the best player in the game after the bye last year. Cunnington is a better pick than Rowell and Heppell on the box plot of injury discountsmen.
Preuss is a really bad actual player but should make money, and I’m happy to get a look at Grundy and/or anyone who goes past him.
After what feels like over a decade they’re finally giving us some forwards. I think its the easiest line this year – everyone should have Danger and Marshall, and probably Dunkley and Martin too. I’m picking Daniher over Ziebell because it’s supposed to be fun and I’m not a coward.
Hi Based Hate to say it but I just dont like it. 10 prems and 6 midpricers is a bad mix IMHO. Last year I went with 9//5 players like macpherson Doc Houston just didn;t cut it. but the 9 stayed all year same result 2019. midpricers and lower priced premos will only cost trades and they very rarely succeed The actual 10 prems you have are quite good and Pruesse selected for a reason but Williams Burton Milera Cunnington and Danaher can easily become two more decent prems as most if not all wont figure in the top ranked players in position .Wasn’t going to comment ,particularly in the negative but hope it’s objective Sorry my friend ,only another coaches opinion DD
Top tips DD.
Not to mention all those Mid pricers are coming off serious injuries.
( Williams being the exception, although he his quite injury prone ) When midprices get re-injured or under perform its not just a trade wasted, but a wasted oppo to improve your team in other ways.
( Swap out a dropped rookie for cash gen etc..)
1 or 2 speculative pics/ mid prices at max for me.
Also be prepared to keep them, even if they don’t go quite to plan. Sometimes you just have too many fires to put out elsewhere.
Best of luck all.
You are making a few comments based on emotions rather than facts demon. In addition to your claims that Grundy isn’t a top ruck you are also saying that Williams isn’t a wise selection as a defender.
Over the past 5-years (apart from 2018 when he missed a season due to surgery and last year) Williams has been very reliable only missing a single game p/year.
Over that 5-year period he has averaged 92.25
Sicily ave 87.6 over the same period and missed on ave 5 games p/year
Daniel ave 87.2 over same period and missed 2 games p/year
Howe ave 95.8 over the same 5-year period (including 121 from LY) and missed 2 games p/year NOT including the 18 that he missed in 2020
Williams is priced to ave 85. He didn’t play midfield at all in 2020 but in 2019 he played 5 games as a midfielder and averaged 102 for the year.
There is nothing to suggest that he wont do a lot better at Carlton than he did at GWS and as such he is a lock for D4 and should easily match or better his 102 from 2019 and be a top 6 defender.
Only 3 midpricers.
Two slot right in to the number 1 in the position at their new teams.
Preuss who will average 100 if he rucks full time which he now should, Ben Brown who is super cheap for a guy who recently kicked 60 per season for times in a row and will slot right as the forward target after the acrimonius year at North.
The third is one of my two big tossups. Dyson Heppell certainly represents value but is Jackson Hately better looking forward for similar money and a big vacancy in the Adelaide midfield.
The other tossup is Jeremy Howe versus Luke Ryan. Howe has more potential and a better price but to carry both him and Heeney is probably one risk too many for the small rewards/discounts on offer.
May change both of these, and that would give me $120k ish spare.
Sorry about format. Wanted the $ out there for the people who haven’t found a team picker yet, will clean up formatting later if I have time.
Please give me all your thoughts people.
Def
Jake Lloyd 656400 Syd
Luke Ryan 576500 Fre
Rory Laird 564800 Ade D/M
Luke McDonald 512900 Nth
Denver Grainger Barass 184800 Haw
Lachie Jones 139800 Pta
Jacob Wehr 117300 Gws Emergency
Bailey Laurie 117300 Mel D/F Sub
Total Defenders 2869800
Mid
Lachie Neale 721800 Brl
Tom Mitchell 610000 Haw
Patrick Cripps 523700 Car
Matt Rowell 495100 Gcs
Dyson Heppell 319100 Ess
Will Phillips 198300 Nth
Luke Pedlar 162300 Ade
Tom Powell 153300 Nth
Finlay Macrae 126300 Col F/M Emergency
Luke Valente 123900 Fre Sub
Reef McInnes 117300 Col Sub
Total Midfielders 3551100
Ruck
Max Gawn 751400 Mel
Braydon Preuss 303000 Gws
Josh Treacy 102400 Fre R/F Emergency
Total Rucks 1156800
Forwards
Ryan Marshall 557200 Stk R/F
Dustin Martin 541600 Ric F/M
Isaac Heeney 454500 Syd F/M
Ben Brown 260300 Mel
Logan McDonald 193800 Syd
Charlie Comben 123900 Nth R/F
Nakia Cockatoo 123900 Brl F/M Emergency
James Rowe 117300 Ade Sub
2372500
Total Players 9950200 Spare Cash $49800
I like your team HH. Same structure as mine except Preuss. This year I am going G+G and no waste a trade ruckside.
I will make my cash Elsewhere to compensate.
Ryan is surely a better choice based on ceiling than Howe and I will back Hately to earn more money than Heppell.
I am sure its your first draft, so good luck
Thanks Jeannot.
Yep, First draft. As per always there’s a lot of names you come across and make you second guess yourself.
But I feel comfortable that this should at least last a week of January. 🙂
Hi H H Nice team Defense is strong and appreciate your views on Pruese ,particu;ar;y as a stepping stone .As a long suffering Demon I am at the club a lot and the coaches thought he was useless anywhere bar taps then he had few HTA’s . He was a liability and they opted for Weideman . The line that worries me is the mids ,not the rookies ,,you have nailed them at this early stage but M3,4,5, Rowell as good as he has started will be found out and will struggle to be in the top 8 Cripps is similar and contends with Williams now whilst Heppell is priced at what he is ,a midpricer that only very very few make it ,think of Oliver at 382k a few years back. In my humble opinion I would opt for two uber mids and the best performing rookie Lyons is 600k and had a great year even one of the cat mids like Duncan 10 out of 16 tons ,I would consider Finding another mid rookie is tricky cause you have the top ones now but THE woods will blood plenty and Poulter may be worth a go Best of luck champ
In the games that Pruess played as a lone ruckman he averaged 36 hitouts and 105 points. Small sample size i know but i think he has the scoring capability to justify starting him.
Also just curious why you think Cripps has to contend with Williams now? Cripps wins his own ball and i can’t see Williams negatively affecting his scoring? Unless im missing something?
Hi Randy pruesse has always been a hit out king as can be seen by his Vfl record where he was always leading the hitouts and that’s all he does rarely to advantage and he forward work was terrible ,therefore he is purely a tap ruckman relying on class mids,which gws has,to get his numbers up.I think as a cash cow /stepping stone he will work out ok but I would prefer a cheaper rookie who will make money quickly. The advantage ,of course is we can suss out the ruck contenders and make a call after a few rounds I am not overly rapt in Grundy and have NicNac there but not with confident. Cripps on the other hand fails to excite me like other uber prems and Williams and Walsh will claw mid time out of him I think he plays more forward 2021 Carlton are a side that could easily challenge for finals and Cripps could well be a handful up ground similar to Petracca Only my call and could be wrong ,time will tell DD
One big thing that worries me about picking Collingwood guys (other than the bye) is the fallout of the offseason, and management blaming the leadership team over Treloar.
It was a poor show all around, and Collingwood already had morale and off field issues during 2020.
It’s one of the reasons I’m very wait and see on both Grundy and Sidebottom
Happy New Year Coaches !!!
Here’s to being Loud & Proud at the Footy !
Settled on this side at present but, … as we all know… !
DEF: Lloyd, Ryan, W’Field Fantasia, DGB, Chapman = L Jones & J Wehr
MID: Satan, Macrae, Zerrett. Lyons, Daicos, Phillips, Campbell, Pedlar = jnr Mac, Cockatoo, A Davies
RUC: Grundy Draper = Treacy
FWD: Dunkley, Marshall, Cameron, JUH , McDonald , N Cox = Rowe, Durdin
Bnk = $20k
Toying with Daicos for Hepps as he looks likely to get the rudder possi down back
This in turn would give me $ to throw B Brown in the Fwd line…reckon he’ll be wanting to give his old side the finger this year…something to prove maybe ?
anyhow your wise thoughts would be greatly received.
CARN THE DONS !!!
Can anyone talk me out of having 4 Blues players in my backline?
Saad
Williams
Newman
Docherty
Probably not, even though you know you shouldn’t. 🙂
Docherty was erm underwhelming but not bad, just not his usual self. But how much of that was Newman? How much impact will Saad have?
I’m not sure that any are going to match previous form, so I’d rather watch and wait on premiums and close to premiums. If they go up it won’t be that much.
Williams shouldn’t worry you too much- if he gets midfield minutes he’ll be relatively cheap.
Use the money for 7 bulldog mids instead…
Use it on the ridiculous Collingwood draft haul, 8 players in total and 5 should play 2021 season. This! and they have 2 pre or mid season places to use
Collingwood is an interesting topic. On a collingwood board where I lurk they were discussing how many young guys can you play at once.
1 to 2 was the general concenssion.
Mottsy, Mottsy, Mottsy……..Tsk! Tsk! Tsk!
The issues against:
The round 13 bye
Newman and Williams played 11 games combined last year.
The Melb/Essendon game getting cancel last year (not taking more than 2 players from any time this year)
Very good points, team. Thanks!
Ok first draft..
Pls note most of the rookies are place holders. I have named a few of the more fancied / pricey guys just to get a feel for structure.
Def: Lloyd, Stewart, Short, DGB , l Jones ( PA) , W Gould.
Bench: Wehr , B Laurie.
Mids: Neale, Oliver, Mitchell, Cripps, B Crouch, Phillips, Pedlar, F.Macrea,
Bench: Cockatoo, Mead, Berry (AD)
Ruck: Max, Marshall*
Bench: Treacy
Forwards: Danger*, Dusty, Heeney, B Campbell, N Cox, H. Jones.
Bench: B. McCreery, C. Poulter.
Bank: $47 800
So last year I swore to myself I wouldn’t start 2021 without the big three. They are Lloyd, Neale and Max. They are all huge $$ but worth every cent. Just look how far ahead they are from everyone else in their positions . Just get them in.
In defence I think Stewart is 95 / 105 every week and its him or C Daniel. I started Short last year and he improved from a 82 odd average to 96.7 . I can see this only heading north. I see a changing of the guard with Houli ageing or injured. A little outside the box but worth a shot at that price.
Mids: Neale and Oliver don’t miss games and both have great ceilings. Uber premo’s with a Captains abilities. Mitch is another year over his injury, and has always been an accumulator. He should get back to his best with the longer quarters again.
If Cripps is fit, its a real no brainer. He could average 120+ , at his price thats a steal.
Crouch may just as easily be Rowell. I think both have the potential to go 105+. Thats fine for me at M8 at years end.
Rucks: I’m a little uncertain with Grundy so have gone Marshall at R2. The plan is too move him forward at some stage.
Forwards. Danger, Dusty and Heeney will all be heavily owned and why not ?
** I did consider Danger for Grundy ( Marshall Forward ) but I like this set up, with a little bank better for now.
This is the first year in many I’m not likely to start a Bulldogs mid/ Forward. There’s just so much uncertainty on where they will all line up.( Mr Magnets Grrrr ) I would consider Dunkley M/F but I fear after requesting a trade and the arrival of Treloar, He maybe doomed to play forward. 🙁
So Guys and Girls what do you think ?
Like it. I’ve been recommending Marshall as an R2 with the intent to move forward later if you can’t spare the coin for Grawndy but won’t take a punt on a midpricer like Preuss, Hickey, De Konig or Draper.
Each of these has their benefits, but to me only Preuss has the potential to make enough points to be viable until after the byes.
The risk though with all of these guys is simply that they don’t accumulate enough cash and just end up in the awkward zone.
If only Thilthorpe starts the season at full fitness. That could change everything.
Crouch suspended for first couple games.
……and Titch has had shoulder surgery, ( i think Crouch is 4 weeks?)
Sheesh thanks guys. I should of done more homework..
On to draft 2 already…
……only No. 2 ?????…….OMG…….and it’s nearly the middle of January!?!?!?!?!…..LOL
Ha ha …started late this year. 😉
Thoughts please,
Heppell or Phillips (Haw)
My essendon bias says heppell. So does my supercoach.
…..so Wighty will agree with you to make it unanimous?????
Yep…Heppell a lock, as is Caldwell up fwd.
Agree with Heppell. Why do you think Caldwell will be a lock? I’m tossing up starting him but I’d like to see his preseason games first
Some of you may know I am the son of the great Wighty…he has told me to have a crack at this thing for the first time this year, and what son can ever deny their Dad, especially one like mine……in contention for a GOAT SC award he tells me. Apart from his skills, its his modesty I most admire.
Dad has implored me that ignoring my bomber bias, doesn’t that have a nice ring to it, is the way to go, so I have done that. Please be nice.
Saad, Hurley, Hooker, Francis, Houli, Hibberd, R/R
Shiell, Merrett, T Hird, Hamm, Neale, Cripps, Titch, Satan, R/R/R
Draper, Phillips, R
Fantasia, Wright, Caldwell, McKernan, Melksham, Dunkley, R/R
I think this is a good balance of prems and rookies, as well as a good balance across the teams for the bye rounds. I have plenty of cash to splash on whichever rookies get picked, but I like the looks of Nicholas Cox, Archie Perkins, and Zach Reid.
Umm, SOW……there’s no Heppell…….
Ps. I’ve typed this quietly so it doesn’t disturb ya dad.
How ya gunna fix it?
HmmmmI think he will have to come in for Neale.
What!!!!!!……and keep a Carlton and Hawthorn…..tsk, tsk.
The Great FOSOW will not be amused….
Dad pointed out that Saad is an ex-Essendon player…he refuses to use ANY word starting with C…ashamedly, for a long time I thought that was for reasons other than football teams. Re Titch, I have to give a game to one person wearing a poo/pee jumper. They are my Mum’s favorite colours. Mum and Dad haven’t spoken for a long time….the day I was born. Mum wanted a girl and blamed Dad.
Good to see you have listened to your fathers advice and ignored your Bomber bias :
Saad- ex Bomber
Hurley – current Bomber
Hooker – current Bomber
Francis – current Bomber
Houli- ex Bomber
Hibbert- ex Bomber
Shiel- current Bomber
Merret – current Bomber
Hird… Ham… Draper…. Caldwell …. current Bombers
Fantasia… McKernan… Melksham…. ex Bombers
Dunkley – wannabe Bomber
Gold!
Prediction loosely based on historical averages:
After 5 rounds Grundy and Gawn will be separated by less than 4 points.
Max will have dropped 35k after round 5
Grundy will have increased by 25k after round 5
Is is worth starting Grundy instead of Gawn?
Max Gawns last 5 encounters ave against first 5 opponents
Freo 132
Saints 133
GWS 142
Cats 119
Hawks 143
Total first 5-opponents ave over last 5 encounters 133.8
Brodie Grundy last 5 encounters ave against first 5 opponents
Dogs 149
Blues 119
Lions 111
GWS 140
Bombers 142
Total first 5-opponents ave over last 5 encounters 132.2
2021 Max is 751,400 last year after his first 5 rounds his ave was 145.3 and his price had increased 44k to 742,500
2021 Grundy is 648,200 last year after his first 5 rounds his ave was 136.6 and his price had decreased 20k to 681,700
I’m sorry but it’s all irrelevant.
Nailing your captain score is what it’s all about.
Just think of the many situations thru the season where your FACING Gawn VC into whomever else VS your possibly tagged mid.
your paying for Gawn and Grundy to get you the best chance of securing 300pts.
No need to apologise for not understanding mate. The game is about trading, maximising ROI and developing strategies to create the best team as quickly as possible. Trades & maximising ROI is required because the player budget isn’t sufficient to have our best 30 at the start.
So you’re starting both Grundy and Gawn?
Yes. But I (each to their own)firmly believe that you should run 3 captain options. Rucks don’t get tagged have many ways to score points and when they go big, they go really big.
They way i see the game is that only a handful of players are capable of multiple 150+ scores whilst putting up 90-120 scores every other week during the season. Because they can do that they never really drop that low in price to pick up for a good price anyway(unless injured).
You need 3-4 players earning good money to trade them in. Where as you can almost certainly pick up a dangerfield or dusty with one down up trade a some point. The same goes for almost all other players.
So while i may need to upgrade more players for full premium we will use the same trades due to you needing more trades on the uber premiums (if you plan on getting them in).
To get in Gawn and Grundy even from a mid price upgrade will most likely be 2 trades each. But to get in a fallen danger or dusty type will only be 1 trade per player and these are the best players outside of the ubers(650k+).
There’s the rookies and the captain options. Then everyone else in between which is where you need to focus your investing to beat everyone else.
Don’t chase the big guys, just start them. Chase the breakouts, fast starters, roll changes, tagged premiums and players back from injury.
I hope this novel made a bit of sense lol.
Just part of my theory on the game, not saying it’s right.
Rucks not getting tagged is a legitimate point.
However, rucks do come against other rucks that effectively neutralise them. Playing against say Witts, to chose one of the slightly below top tier rucks who is still a very strong hit out type ruckman is a pretty good way for your uber-premo ruckman to have a bad scoring day.
Worse, when 2 of your 3 captain options are playing against each other… and your VC option has already spudded.
The other legitimate point is of course that finding the cash for a 700k player usually involves weeks of saving, unlike picking up Danger or Dusty when they drop under $500k, which they have both consistently done over the last few years.
There isn’t really a solution to this. You can start with Neale, Gawn and Grundy… but good luck finding the money for Lloyd, Laird, Oliver, Bont, Dunkley, Macrae etc.
Lol, you need a good strong strategy in place to capitalize on when you get good luck(bloody 1% owned rookies getting 150’s on field).
That’s probably my summary for this game.
It’s a TEAM scoring system.
A Ruck’s score would be worth diddley squat (nothing) if the mid-fielders were not acting on the contests efficiently.
The same with mid-fielders, if they have had to work hard to get the ball (HBG) and dispose of it effectively, they are a better scoring option.
A receiving mid, needs both the others to work for them to even get a thought.
It’s the good mids that make rucks look good/better, and it’s the good rucks that make it easier for them to do so.
The last bit about good muds making rucks look better (and good rucks making mids look better) is probably the biggest sales point for Preuss for me.
Of course, late in the season when GWS fade out with a whimper you need to have taken the profit and moved on.
Soooo………Should we focus on mids and rucks, and have def and forwards with no premos?????????
Must start Seagull and Marshall at leased.
That’s 12 premiums.
DEF-1
MID-8
RUC-2
FWD-1
Seems good of you can get it.
Nah,……def and fwd don’t increase fast enough and mid rookies would be wasted……Ah well…..
Chameleon
“def and fwd don’t increase fast enough and mid rookies would be wasted”
o dear o dear o dear
That is a fantastic reply thanks.
I understand your philosophy and it makes good sense but if you look at LY 5 players ave more than Grundy and all 5 were capable of going as big as grundy. Nobody would be able fit Max, the 4 best mids, Lloyd and Grundy into their starting lineup so somebody needs to miss out the problem is determining who doesn’t get the starting gig.
My post was based on starting only 1 prem Ruck (so that I could start 4 prem defenders +williams, 5 prem mids and 1-2 prem forwards) and I was seeking opinion on who would be best to start. My analysis of only the first 5 opponents is due to me believing that I must have the 2 best rucks from round 6 onwards.
I see from other posts that Grundy is a more flexible VC option for the first 5 rounds
Hi Kevin I think Grundy will be the one to fall back mainly because his HTA’s will drop with the kids replacing talent,however he could still be the next best to Gawn I have the 4 best def plus MILERA Grawndy 2 best fwds and 3 top mids plus Duncan. So I have what is almost the best 4 lines possible with the exception of maybe STEELE I opted for Duncan who returned 2 tons out of 3 played. It is purely GnR.12 real uber prems and MILERA Would have loved Zac and Steele for a perfect full house but coin stopped me plus the byes Steele has that awkward R14 bye with the 3 rucks Clarry and Seagull The problem with GnR will be the availability of finding 7 playing rookies.The mids do .however look promising with at least 10 possible starters My take only DD
There is also Max’s fragility to consider, when he gets a niggle he misses plently. He played 4 games in his first year (2011) and missed his entire 2nd year with injury and didn’t manage to play a full season until his 6th year.
2020 missed 3 games with a shoulder muscle
2019 missed 1 game with a sore ankle
2018 played all games
2017 Missed 9 games with a hammy
2016 played all games
2015 missed first 9 games due to injury in last game of 2014
Since 2015 Statistically he’s only played a full season 33% of the time
Grundy seems to be a bit more robust
2020 played all games
2019 played all games
2018 played all games
2017 missed 2 games suspension
2016 missed 1 game
2015 missed 3 games
Dunkley goes forward which makes him go backward….I like that !!
If you look at the first six rounds, Gawn can really only be the second leg of a Grawn v/c loop, and many other loops. Grundy can be v 5 out of first six games..the sixth game (rd 6) is the only time you can loop Gawn into Grundy.
Not knowing the later rounds draw, but Pies likely to feature heavily in Th/Fr night games, I’m looking at a strategy of Grundy but not Gawn. Then there is the bye round which both share.
Good points here.
Good stuff Wighty, just another point, Marshall also has the round 14 bye so that adds to the problem of ruck cover for that round too.
Currently I’m going grundy and gawn but I definitely have to balance out the rest of my team and upgrades to make sure i can field a team in round 14.
What’s everyone’s thoughts on the below options?
TU: Heeney & Heppell
TD: Dunkley & W. Phillips
Worried about Dunkleys role but Heeney probably won’t score enough to be in the top 8 fwds…
Dunkley will go backwards as he plays a more forward role, barring injury.
He really should have been traded out imho.
ATM of those four; Heppell and W Phillips.
Hey guys just thought I’d put up my team for some feedback 🙂
Def
Lloyd, luke ryan, laird, williams, L Young, DGB, Gould, Laurie.
Mid
Neale, Oliver, Adams, Cripps, Rowell, Will Phillips, Pedlar, Valente, Bianco, Mead, Gulden
Ruc
Gawn, Grundy
Fwd
Marshall, Heeney, Worrel, Cockatoo, Comben, Rowe, Macrae, Poulter
Rookies on bench are just place holders and iv gone with hopefully playing rookies on field.
I know fwds are abit shy but theyr just hard to pick right now.
Any feedback welcome 🙂
Thanks
I worry about the amount of rookies you have in your forward line. That’s a lot of forward rookies to find.
if you want that structure I’d look at a more expensive F3 like Ben Brown so you know at least one guy is playing week in and week out.
How much cash you got FT ?
Sorry I have 33k remaining
Does that include your missing ruck emg?…..Treacy?
Haha yes it does, forgot to write it there lol
Change a couple of your expensive benches down to cheaper options, trade out Valente for Campbell, and i see a current perfect mid line up. LOL
Note subject to change again in 5-10 mins.
Valente is a lock for mine. (as close as rookies get anyway)
Move him to the bench but don’t get rid of him.
I like Campbell just don’t get rid of Valente.
Does the existence of Damon Greaves relegate Denver GB to the VFL for the start of 2021?
I don’t like his job security that’s for sure.
Hawks have other young defenders too.
I’m trying to avoid victorian rookies this year as well. Stirring clear for mine.
I had greaves locked in right up till his price was released. Just like witherden a few seasons back, I’m not falling for that trap again.
I have seven defender rookies on my watch list and he isn’t one of them.
So there is some depth at that position given you only need 4-5.
I don’t think so. Greaves only played 3 games in 2020.
Hawthorn has Sicily out for an extended period, Stratton, Henderson and Frawley are all gone, as well as Conor Glass and Will Golds.
Both Greaves and Grainger Barrass should play for extended periods.
When I look at the hawks best 22 I have Greaves in the back line
then first cabs of the rank to cover injuries are:
Big Defender = Jacob Koschitzke
HalfBack = Changkuoth Jiath
Intercepter = DGB
Scrimshaw seems to have that interceptor role at the moment due to the absence of Sicilly but there’s lots of questions around that. Mainly, does he take enough marks, and is it better to pair him with DGB in the backline.
If Scrimshaw misses games I don’t think they really have anyone but DGB to play that role.
Hey everyone. Are we considering Heeney a keeper?
Only if he doesn’t get injured. Which he will.
But seriously, same as last year, forwards are either up there in price or age, or unreliable for scoring.
Anyone actually think Tomahawk can score within 15 points of what he scored this year? Nahh, didn’t think so.
If Heeney is fit and stays that way he’s a top 10 forward at a discounted price. it’s a big if though.
He does seem to like to get injured while not playing football.
If he gets through the preseason unscathed he is in my side due to lack of better options.
Normally I’d have him as an upgrade target because his scoring is erratic but he currently is discounted anyway.
Mark down your top 8 fwds for the season. Is he in?
Of those 8 which 2 will most likely suffer an injury or roll change(negative impact on scoring) . Is he still in?
Now which ones are the most popular selections (1-3).
Which one will hurt or the most by not having them.
Keeper maby, but not a starter for me.
Including DPP status is often my main decider.
ATM I would start with Phillips haw. ahead of Heeney.
I’d go with Heeney. if you look at the Forwards from last year, 5 of thoe who averaged more than Heeney (including his injury) are no longer forwards. Plus of course you’ve got Hawkins’ freak season.
Even adding a couple of players who gained DPP Fwd it still leaves Heeney around top 8 forward averages despite the injury.
From what i can tell (correct me if im wrong) but noone has ever averaged 133+ for back to back seasons. I could only find 3 times that a guy has gone 130+ 2 seasons in a row…
Ablett in 08 & 09
Dangerfield in 16 & 17
Grundy (only just in both seasons) 18 & 19
So if you’re picking both neale and gawn it’s against the odds (never happened before) that either will average 133+ this season. Having said that, i understand the importance of having multiple captaincy options so i can understand if people are happy to overpay to get the best chance at a 270+ weekly captain score.
I’ve selected neale but i can’t justify starting both him and gawn. I’ll rely on oliver and grundy as my other captaincy options.
Anyway just a bit of food for thought. Happy if people can convince me to select both neale and gawn!
I’m only starting 1 of them and expect them both to come down a bit, maybe Neale can back it up, cause going 130 back to back has been done before.
But i doubt either score more than their season average from last year.
Both is a big chunk of change, especially given Grundy and Gawn did the opposite the season before, Grundy outscoring Gawn.
Not saying it will happen again but if you haven’t go check out Gawns first 6-7 games.
Put up a 125 ave captain score against that.
1 93
2 184
3 Great bat-snot Robin, hand me the bat-corona-test.
4 141
5 163
6 153
7 185
8 157
Thanks TOF, I agree it’s definitely a risk not picking Gawn. I’m banking on Neale to match Gawns scores along with Gawn not being able to maintain the 140 point average from last season.
But i will be looking to upgrade Preuss to Gawn because i still believe he will be in the top 2 ruckman, likely top 1!
I really appreciate the varying opinions and wisdom here. Thanks
Agree, it’s a great site. Appreciated your grundy v gawn analysis above Kevin, interesting read!
Interesting changes afoot at Carlton. They recruited Z.Williams as a midfielder but the addition of Saad generates questions about Carltons defensive lineup. I think that it will probably be Wietering-Jones-Docherty-Saad-Newman and 1 of SPS, Plowman, T.Williamson + Casboult.
There is also a possibility of Newman moving up the ground to a wing and pushing Newnes out of the team. Newman played a wing/fwd role in the 2nd half of his debut season at the swans and averaged 82SC in those games.
Newman is priced to ave 77, he ave 97 as a defender at Carlton in 2019 he has been an injury magnet for most of his career but the La Nina might fix that.
Certainly there are a few there that can be moved to other roles.
Knowing Williams will probably play significant midfield time makes it very hard not to start him.
But you have to consider injury history too.
Williams is a no for me. I like my starters to be as durable as possible. You’re looking for them to play 22 games.
would be interested to know what structure posters here intend to run with in R1….I’m looking at the following:
13 Keepers
4 Backs
4 Mids
2 Rucks
3 Forwards
cheers all
D-5
M-4
R-2
F-1.5
.5 ???……Ha Ha…..Luv it TOF.
Does that mean ~400, or DPP status???
Break out/stepping stone.
Not sure who it is yet, But not a premium or rookie.
Got about 350k to spend on one player or spread out.
Would rather go with the one player , maby Caldwell or Rozie.
Or do the whole Daniher, Ziebell, Brown, Impy thing.
Might call it THE DIBZ SETUP (Daniher,Impey,Brown,Ziebell).
Brown is a Melbourne fwd = pass
Ziebell at his absolute best was a 90ave player and nowadays at 30 y.o. he has great affinity with injury. It’s a reflection on the low quality of Nth Melbournes list that he’ll be in their best 22 for 2021. = viable
I prefer 27y.o Daniher to Ziebell due to Brisbanes recent history with healing injury prone players and the amount of times that the ball enters the Lions fwd line. I know that Daniher only ave 1.6 goals p/game over his career but that career has been at a rubbish team, in a good team like Brisbane he could easily ave 3 goals p/game at only 233k you have to start him if Brisbane does.
Impey excellent at what he does but never been a high scorer in SC with a career high season of 74 in 2019 = only if no fwd rookies.
Rozee you’d have to hope that something dramatic happens at Port (maybe Robbie Gray getting old) sure he can go big but with eight sub 60’s from 14 games LY = not for me
Caldwell. Until his final game of 2020 his career 1st game was his highest SC score 73. His new career high of 84 was against Adelaide in rnd 16 LY and came on the back of a career high 7 tackles. Essendons midfield is very interesting in 2021, Zerrett has all but signed with the saints before the preseason starts with only the final $ to be determined, Shiel in the final years of his career, smith,parish and langford all proven decidedly average AFL players. Heppell is a fantastic person and a great footballer but like Zerrett he’s also a downhill skier and incapable of the hero acts that a team without heart needs to win games.
Grab Logan McDonald and use the spare cash for an extra mid premo
McGrath to have Neale like numbers and heppell All australian Half-Back or, another spoon.
I agree with all points.
I’ll probably end up banking the cash.
People are 50/50 on this.
So you have cash there that’s not earning interest.
But it also gets another premium in faster generating more points, rather than being stuck in that silly mid pricer that scores 30-50pts or getting dropped.
Brown and Daniher are both rookie priced for known to be substantially above rookie level players.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see either stepping up to being keepers, although theoretically it’s perfectly possible for either.
But as far as a rookie priced player who can and should play every week and gain you $150k, both should be in the mix, no matter what you think about their personal lives or on field attitude.
Something I’ve thought about but don’t have the guts to do is start Ben Brown with aims of having him as my 23rd player after upgrading. He would make a good F7 loophole option. If he goes big field him, if he doesn’t play your premier.
The lack of cash gen would hurt thought because you’re not using a position to make cash (i.e you’re not cashing him out)
I have 12 keepers over 550k and one midpricer that i am hoping to be a keeper,MILERA .Last year i started with 9 absolute keepers and 5 wannabe’s like HOUSTON and DOC These types rarely make it Oliver did at 382k but he is rare Heppell Rozee in fact most under 500k and a good % of those close to 500-540 are very risky some like forwards Dusty Walters and Heeney will no doubt drop after a few bad scores. The trick is to identify the new OLIVERS I can see very little Milera Rowell and James Cousins are worth a look but that’s all. There is no way Pruese will be top 4 rucks so he becomes a cash cow and will need to be upgraded Having GRAWNDY ROB or N N from the start makes sense.then rely on cheaper cash cows DD
A little bit provocative to suggest that Doc was a ‘wannabe’ in 2020 when his previous 2 seasons were 115 and 109 respectively.
Sure he missed 2018/19 but in 2017 his 115 ave was 4 higher than midfielder Oliver that year and equal to Olivers career high SC prior to 2020.
Oliver’s best year ever was 2020 when he equaled Lloyd which is apt; at his best Oliver is as good as an average Jake Lloyd. 🙂
More to do with his injury Kev , Wannabe is not quite appropriate for Doc probably a fallen prem that was a risk Lloyd is easily the best def and OLIVER grouped at the top with Neale Steele and MacRae We can’t have the lot but for me it’s about getting most then ubers with the best chance of getting there Players who are 50k less than these 4 mids who could easily end up top 4 Fyfe Lyons Duncan Tracca and m crouch make more appeal to me than Kelly Luggage Rocky and the midpricers like Worpel or
Brayshaw A lot depends on rookies who play DD
Explanation is fair enough on Doch DD.
Oliver was my first picked after Neale he’s gold for SC a young jet with a lot of room for improvement. If he cleans up his non-dominant side disposal and learns how to kick goals he could easily match Neale and win a brownlow. TMitch could surpass them both but more likely 3rd in SC due to team weaknesses rather than his own output.
I think Crouch will impact Steele to the tune of -10pts, Treloar will have similar impact on Macrae/Bont/Hunter and the lack of a Grundy will have a -10>-15pts effect on Treloar.
Merrett has apparently all but signed with saints for 6years so his output for 2021 now has a ? (toot toot), Jelly always gets broken for a few weeks and Petracca needs to start with 2 x 35+ disposal games with goals before I trust him.
Basically IMO Neale and Oliver are the must have starting mids
I also won’t start Tracca just like 2020 needs to show me a bit of consistency .Oliver is like a few dee mids and needs to start booting a few,this stops him being another NEALE Steele is the other mid i won’t start partly because he is expensive and then the Crouch factor. I f the Saints need another mid i would prefer MacRAE over Merrett M4 to start is tricky at present Duncan sits there followed by Tich and Laird.. Looks like you have slotted Preus in. any thoughts on him,Marshall is still not a lock for me.plenty more research coming DD
Preuss is there as a place holder depending on preseason form he could become TDK or any other 300k-ish ruck that can ave 80 consistently. I hope that he can ave 80 for 5-6 weeks and then I’ll upgrade to 2nd best ruck.
There are a lot of factors influencing who will be #2. I want to see how ROB and English have progressed, whether NicNat continues to increase game time and see how Grundy goes without Treloar.
Marshall is a keeper as a fwd and I reckon he’ll be outstanding until Ryder gets back, I could even move him to R2 and turn Preuss into Danger or Dusty
My concern over English is he may get pushed into a fwd role if the dogs plan to use Stef Martin at some stage…
ROB is a solid choice and im a big fan of Nic Nat but the constant worry about injury or him being rested puts me off.
Agree. I have the cash to shift Titch to Oliver, and am seriously considering it.
I’m not starting with Macrae for the first time in what, 3 (or 4?) years I think. Treloar/Macrae/Bont/Hunter/Dunkley just leaves too many questions about structure.
We know Bont will be gifted at least 125 av scores by CD, and Hunter finished the season well. So it really does raise questions on how dominant the dogs midfield is going to have to be to share the points around to be considering Treloar or Macrae.
It’s a risk I don’t see as wise.
I agree, you also have Libber pushing for midfield time as he seems to be the most one positional of the lot and Bailey Smith deserving midfield time to.
Is there any Solid evidence that Merret has all but signed to St Kilda??
Or is that what you would like to happen..
please attach link of source seeing as you have mentioned it as apparently.
Ha ha
Nice question… any evidence of Merret to Saints? just wasted 10 min trying to find something. Turns out it’s just made up. Saints paying over for Crouch and seem to like bringing in the over 30’s crew…
Currently
D-5
M-5
R-1
F-1
D 4
M 4
R 2
F 4
Mid pricer at M5
4 guys over 6k
sooo we’ll see how that goes.
14 keepers if im lucky
11 keepers if im unlucky
Def: 4 (williams d4)
Mid: 5 (rowell m5)
Ruck: 1
Fwd: 4 (heeney f4)
ATM based on the TOFimatical formula, I have 4, 5, 1, 2.5 = 12.5.
Don’t you mean 1.5(ruc)?
Preuss @ ~300 ???……hmmm, I see the possible ratification to the formula deduced Prof. TOF….. .25 !!! ….=12.75!!!….LOL
Tom Stewart
Ave 100.1 for 2020 = 10th highest defender ave.
Dig deeper and he had an 18 after busting his collarbone in Q1 round 4 v Melbourne delete that score and he ave 106 for the season = 3rd highest defender ave.
Look a little bit closer and he ave 108.1 after the injury (rnd 8 onwards) and an impressive 111.3 over his final 7 games of 2020 = 2nd highest defender ave
Usually super durable and ultra reliable and 40k-50k cheaper than others who score similarly.
Damn, I really don’t want to run 6 deep…
In my side. Durable and Undervalued equals in my side.
Is Ziebell a relatively safe purchase?
TU: Ziebell
TD: Logan McDonald
Great question, wish I had a great answer.
Stepping stone review around the 260 mark:
I like Ben Browns durability but now has the demon midfield kicking/spraying it to him.
Ziebell, heard a rumor they might play him on half back, is a watch for me. His injuries last year were two different soft tissue I believe, hamstring and calf. Not a good sign for me.
Rory Aktins? is he best 22, does take up a midfield rookies spot (which probably isn’t a good thing)
He’s certainly been ok at patching his body together with gaffa tape to show up next week in the past.
But I think North have been doing that with their players too long and there are long term consequences to that.
Yes, he’s cheap, yes he could make some quick money if he starts the season fit. The question is at what point do you cash him out? Before he gets injured and drags down his score on one injury?
Or when he’s still playing 3 weeks later walking wounded and back down to his starting price, because you didn’t have a trade up your sleeve that week, or he was named and they lied about how serious his injury was?
One of the things that turns me off Ziebell is I found an article talking about his high pain tolerance and pushing through injuries. Seems to tie into two of your points, the long term affect of this and will he say yes to playing then break down in game.
Zac Williams
Best year 2019 ave 102 SC
In that year he played 6 games as a midfielder including 2 finals.
His ave as a midfielder over all 6 games was 99.3
His 2019 midfielder x finals was 99.25
He’s priced to ave 84 and will probably ave 100.
As a midfielder it was his tackle numbers that elevated his scores, without them he would have ave 75-85, and that is why I am not going to start him.
I think that Williams might be Carltons next Ed Curnow/Andrew Carrazzo, a defensive midfielder who goes 110+ occasionally but is usually 85-105 range.
It appears to be the obvious move to replace the ageing Curnow but Newman could also fill that role. Until I see pre-season and Zac’s actual midfield role I’ll have McDonald at D5 (it’s only 64k)
Even better… only 54k!
To be honest what’s the gains on Williams versus the risk?
If he gets up to his “awesome midfielder” 2019 spec, he’s a 99 point player. He’s priced to average 84.
So basic maths is 15 x $5300 = $79,500 discount for a player with a poor injury history. 15%.
Yeah, it’s easy to get sucked into the hype, and I was considering him in place of Ryan.
But you think about it logically, you’re risking gaining 80 grand for a guy who has played 12 games or less in 5 out of his 8 seasons.
It’s utter madness.
Even Luke McDonald comes with risk of not playing the full season, but every single one of his seasons he at least played 13 games in.
TU: D5-6 of Z.Williams & L.Jones
TD: D5-6 of Aliir & Cumming. Jones D7
I’m convinced that Williams’ role will be Ed Curnow like and generate 100 ave max = bottom of top 10 defenders.
I also think that Cumming will fill Williams’ or Shaws spot at GWS and ave 80+ and Aliir will ave 90>100 playing a “Hoff 2018′ role.
Aliir & Cumming give me greater flexibility as stepping stones/potential keepers but I feel like Williams is a safer option
Ed Curnow will have Ed Curnow’s role.
appreciate the responses re set up for R1 all…looking at the following two options atm…appreciate a quick straw vote and any thoughts..cheers
TU: 5,4,2,2
B: Lloyd, Laird, Whitfield, MacD (or Howe), Zac
M: Neale, Steele, Oliver, Crouch
R: Gawn, NicNat
F: Danger, Marshall
TD: 4,4,2,3
B: Lloyd, Laird, Whitfield, Zac
M: Neale, Steele, Oliver, Crouch
R: Gawn, Grundy
F: Danger, Marshall, Heeney
Will need to review a little in line with Byes and develop a plan to trade in players performing well in that light.
Heeney is my F4 so that’s how much I like the forward rookies.
If you want to pay up for some 260k forwards to flesh out your forward line then I get where you’re coming from .
I voted for the bottom team. It’s important to consider what makes players become fallen premiums. With the advent of tagging into the back line, of hbf or intercept markers I think starting too many defenders is a bad move as enough of them have a high chance of dropping in price.
Guys like Hayes and Ridely for instance will throw in a bad game due to the opposition’s game-plan for them.
Start players without big price swings and target ones with big price swings if that makes sense.
Thanks for those comments…agree with your last sentence…atm I’ve gone for high priced prems to allow for a bit of flexibility as the season draws closer and form, roles and injuries become clearer….what I’ve always struggled with is the balance (if there is one) between chasing overall or leagues
I tend to think if you’re going for league you can let your rookies fatten up more but… that’s just my 2 cents.
I definitely think building a flexible side is a must which sounds like that’s a major focus of yours.
Hello PP, I play in 2 cash leagues & my trading is governed by who I am playing each week. Overall ranking doesnt worry me but I also try to complete my team asap. Good luck.
Which Crouch…one starts the season suspended.
matt atm but that may change to Adams, Steele may change to Merrett….gives an extra 45k so 70K ITB with a 4,4,2,3
My father (Wighty) has finally convinced me to put in a sensible team so here goes….
Lloyd, Laird, Williams, Duggan, Lukosius, Wehr, Jones/Laurie
Neale, Macrae, Adams, Cripps, Phillips, Hutchings, Powell, Sharp, Cockatoo Downie/Oea
Gawn, Grundy Treacy
Marshall, Martin, Ziebell, Daniher, Worrell, Rowe Macrae/Durdin
Rookies subject of course. Reckon there’s 5 def keepers and 13 in total. Bank $10.6
great looking team I had both Duggan and Lukosious for long periods 2020 so i can see where you are coming from. Very hard to offer up any improvements Duggan could be a gem if he gets the kick ins What an effort young man DD
Well thank you. I have always admired double D’s !!!
And I have always admired someone who researches and thinks about the game Wighty DD
We still need some luck in this game DD. As the saying goes…I’d rather be lucky than good !!
Compared to BBL Wighty afl requires none LOL . LLOYD getting injured in the opening minutes is luck but you need a lot of research and good sites like this to bounce ideas off Already i have swapped Duncan for Tich solely on advice from here DD
Solid upgrade DD. Assuming Titch’s shoulder is fine I’ll be looking to find a place for him too!
Is ryder suppose to be missing the start of the season with injury?
I read it on a forum but I can’t find it in the news. (not sure that helps much)
He did a grade 3 hammy with some tendon damage in October. About 3-months recovery time required for a standard grade 3, add another month for the tendon. Ryder is older and taller than the ‘average’ profile used for recovery times by sports medicine Australia so you can probably add another month due to age and height, maybe he will be ready for round 1 but I doubt it.
Interesting
Thoughts on Mitch Duncan as an (relatively) undervalued premo mid? Durable, consistently scores well, bit of a POD, capable of going big with multiple scores over 115 last year. Very juicy at $556k.
My M4 for a long time if you take that 13 away he is close to 110 .Top choice Morty DD
His price is tempting but it’s a no for me. He’s never quite managed to hit a 110 average in any season throughout his career, his average has been on the decline since 2017 and he’ll be 30 this season.
Just can’t see him being a top 10 in the mids so you’ll be stuck with a 100-105 average player for the season or forced to use a sideways trade.
The structure I have settled on heading in preseason:
DEF: Lloyd, Whitfield, Williams,
Jones, Thompson, Gould,
(Wehr, Highmore)
MID: Neale, Macrae, Fyfe,
Rowell, Phillips, Powell,
Collier-Dawkins, S. Berry,
(F. Macrae, Kemp, Mead)
RUCK: Gawn, Grundy, (Treacy)
FWD: Danger, Dunkley, Marshall,
Dusty, Bergman, Rowe,
(Cockatoo, Poulter)
Cash left over: 3.7k
Very big focus on Guns and Rookies this year for me, got burnt by a few too many mid pricers last year. Decided to go one less mid premo and the extra forward in Dusty, as I think the four FWD premos I’ve picked are locks to finish top 6 for position, and there are so many good upgrade targets in the midfield (Steele, Bont, Oliver, Trac, Kelly, etc).
If cash for rookies is needed, it’ll probably be Dusty down to Heeney. Would also like to go Williams up to McDonald, but will wait and see on their respective pre-season. Thoughts appreciated. 🙂
Fyfe will most likely play more fwd this season. If you dead set on him, I’d ditch Macrae, dunkly and Rowell.
Too many question marks.
There all probably good selections but not at the same time. I’d choose one, replace the others with different players.
For example I’m probably starting Macrae, therefore I’m making sure he’s the only suspect player. No Steel(crouch) no petracca (still petrappa to me) no Rowell(only 4 games) no dunkly (roll) etc.
There all probably good choices but not together.
I definitely think people need to focus more on collective risk.
Some simple maths, if you’re taking two chances with a 10% chance of succeeding, the collective chance of success is 1%.
Also having a fallback plan if your risk fails is important.
E.G Alot of coaches will take Preuss at R2 choice, but have a plan if he gets injured.
Fyfe is kind of a placeholder premo at the moment, if I was to swap any of the players you mentioned out it’d probably be him. I think he’ll still score well if he plays forward more, because he’s Nat “Champion Data” Fyfe. More concerned with how regularly he gets injured after half a dozen games each season.
Macrae I think will still be a safe pick and lock for 115+. Had a down year in 2020 after a slow start, still averaged 120. Treloar is also likely to miss games, so I think he’s a safe bet.
Dunkley I think is also a lock to finish the season as a top 8 fwd by average. I expect him to average 100 as a baseline in a worst case scenario, which is fine for a forward. And we’ve seen what happens when he plays full time midfield, 120+ when he’s had the role in the past. Basically I know I’m paying overs, but I’m happy just to set and forget him at F2-F4.
Lastly, Rowell is priced at an 85 average from memory. Even if he doesn’t break out and average 110+, and instead averages say 100, there’s still value to be had. Best case he’s a keeper, worst case he’s a late season sideways trade to a fallen Uber premo.
I will also add that I tend to pick players I like, and it’d feel wrong to start a season without Macrae in my midfield.
Hi Robbie,
Just on Macrae, from memory i believe his slow start last season was due to being played out on the wing rather than in the center. Might be something to look into incase he gets put on the wing at stages this season due to the bulldogs having too many midfielders.
Same goes for Dunkley, i believe he was played half forward and averaged around 90 in that position.
They may both end up being great picks, just something you need to feel comfortable with if selecting both.
That being said i think you’ve picked a relatively strong side, all the best!
Cheers Randy. I’m hoping Hunter being healthy means Macrae stays on the inside. Always a dice roll with Bevo.
He’s also “Champion Game Misser” Fyfe.
They claimed they found out how to “manage” his injuries and keep him on the park.
He played 14 games last year.
He’s still at 50/50 to play 20 games in a season. But now he’s going to be 30 in 2021.
Thoughts please;
Preference.
Player ave. 105-110 plays 20+ games T/u or
Player ave. 110-120 plays 10-15 games T/d
………and why maybe???
I go with the 20+ guys for players i’m starting.
From round 6 onwards you should be averaging 1 upgrade per week (you might go two down one week but then two up the next week).
Increasing your chance of an injury in the upgrade-window isn’t wise.
You want to use your trades to cash out rookies and bringing in premos, not covering for your starters.
Even if you pick non-injury prone starters 1-2 of them will get injuried anyway.
Probably depends on the position. I’d consider a 110-120 fwd for 15 games because that’s a large increase on most options available.
Otherwise I’d take the 20 games for 105-110
Do the math.
Assuming you have a 70 point rookie/backup player.
(110 x 20) (70 x 3) = 2200 plus 210 = 2410
Now compare to if your 120 a round player plays:
10 games – (120 x 10) (70 x 13) = 1200 plus 910 =2110
13 games – (120 x 13) (70 x 10) = 1560 plus 700 = 2260
15 games – (120 x 15) (70 x 8) = 1800 plus 560 = 2360
You are far worse off. Your break even point is 16 games.
Injuries matter. That’s why I am not taking Whitfield, or Jelly, or even Fyfe, and have VERY SERIOUS doubts about Zac Williams.
Plus of course, if they played 15 games, or even 8 last year you are paying the full price for them, despite them only playing 1/2 to 1/3 the matches.
Without a full 30% discount it is just reckless coaching
Understand your logic HH however if he was going to miss 8 games you’d trade him to another premium rather than use a rookies score
The problem is with these sorts of players it’s more likely they miss 2 or 3, come back for a few weeks, then miss another 2 or 3…
Makes it hard to decide when to pull the trigger on a trade.
Although credit where its due HH, Your insite on Z. Williams (Comment posted a few conversations above this one) has me questioning my decision to have him at D4.
Thanks everyone for thoughts.
IMO this has pointed to starting with;
Duncan
……but over Adams ???
Defenders
Jake Lloyd $656,400
Rory Laird $564,800
Lachie Whitfield $561,600
Denver Grainger-Barras $184,800
Lachlan Jones $139,800
Will Gould $123,900
Rory Thompson [E] $123,900
Thomas Highmore $117,300
Midfielders
Lachie Neale $721,800
Jack Steele $658,000
Clayton Oliver $656,700
Zach Merrett $620,900
Matt Rowell $495,100
Will Phillips $198,300
Brodie Kemp $123,900
Sam Berry $117,300
Jay Rantall [E] $123,900
Riley Collier-Dawkins $123,900
Nathan O’Driscoll $117,300
Rucks
Max Gawn $751,400
Brodie Grundy $648,200
Josh Treacy [E] $102,400
Forwards
Josh Dunkley $560,200
Rowan Marshall $557,200
Jack Ziebell $257,900
Elijah Hollands $180,300
Nakia Cockatoo $123,900
Harrison Jones $123,900
Miles Bergman [E] $123,900
Joshua Eyre $117,300
Z.Merrett has not agreed to play for anybody in 2022, yet.
I erroneously passed on info from a usually reliable source. Merrett has not agreed in principle to a 6-year deal with anybody. Saints have 3 top midfielders in their sights and hope to get 1 of them but they have not formally approached any of them.
Essendon do not have any salary cap pressure and they can afford to pay Zac whatever he wants and I doubt that he’d leave Bombers even for the prospect of a flag.
When does supercoach officially open
Need help with my team
At the moment
Lloyd ryan laird stewart milera gould
E wehr highmore
Neale oliver merrett gaff W. Phillips
Powel
E valente gulden davies
Gawn preuss E treacy
Sidebittom marshall j cameron w kelly
B campbell
E rowe durdin
Not sure about Ryan and gaff want to nail the right keepers at the start had danger mitchell heeney on list but under injury clouds and I have a lot of rookies and not many mid range players Rookies will change depending if they play Suggestions please
Good luck everyone. My team is this.
Daf luke ryan. J Howe. Z Williams. W milera. L Jones. W gould. Bench J wher. B Laurie.
Mids. Z Merrett. P Dangerfield. A gaff. H McCluggage. M rowell. B cunningtom. W phillips. B Campbell. Bench T Bianca. L valente. B Collier Dawkins.
Rucks goldy. Grundy. Bench J treacy.
Fwds. M Walters. T paply. J Cameron. J Caldwell. A Perkins. N cockatoo. Bench f macrea. J rowe.
Ready for the fall out from people by not having dusty .cripps .heeney. Sorry guys not falling into the trap of picking those 3.
Good luck guys this year.
Daf. C Daniel. J Howe. A wiltherden. J Clarke. L Jones. J koschiitzke. Bench w gould.. T highmore
Mids. M bontempelli. J Kelly. R laird. M rowell. B cunnington. D heppell. B Campbell. T powell.
Bench e Smith. T Bianco. C downie.
Rucks. M gawn. B Grundy. Bench J treacy.
Fwds. P Dangerfield . D Martian. T green. J cameron. O Henry. T brockman . Bench J rowe. A wztermen.
So what do you guys think. Have lots of pod players. Might work me might not. Anyway good luck