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For the past 4 years i keep telling myself next year start with Lloyd. Well at least i am consistent.
DEF: Laird Whitfield Williams Young DGB Wehr {Highmore Nichols}
MIDS: Neale Oliver Mitchell Cripps Rowell Sloane Powell Cockatoo
{Valente Downie Davies}
Grundy Marshall {Treacy}
FWD:Danger Bolton Heeny Daniher Hutching Rowe {Comben Mc Creery}
5k Left in the Bank
M3 to M6 is a bit risky given {3} have had shoulder surgery and Sloane missed most of last year with injury, But they all represent good value. RISKY ??
Also have a team ready to role with both Lloyd and Gawn.
4 5 2 3 {14 potential keepers}
DEF: Lloyd Whitfield Williams Young DGB Wehr {Highmore Worrel}
MID Neale Oliver Danger Laird Rowell Powell Valente Cockatoo{ 3rooks}
Gawn Grundy {Treacy}
FWD: Marshall Bolton Heeny Danier Hutchings Rowe {Comben Mc Creery}
57K in the Bank
It will depend on the rookies as always….after last year, starting Midfield rookies could be thin.?
Which team looks better.?
Team 1 TU
Team 2 TD
All comments welcome.
Id look at moving Laird to def and danger to fwd if you want to start him however..
Danger usually drops in value so maybe think about bringing him in when he drops and substitute him to another mid who brings more value in the mid role like Adams.
Laird on the other hand is a risky pick at Mid, id look at either substituting him for a pure mid player who brings more value and bring laird in defence once ur sure he is playing MID.
Liking your Bolton pick in the fwd.
Second one easily .Forwards are a box of chocolates ,don’t know what you are getting ,ok not original but hey who’s forward line isn’t , mine’s worse relying on Brown at F3 ,but 100% rate him much higher than Danaher good luck champ DD
To me Mitchell isn’t actually that much of an injury risk. His first seasons at Sydney he wasn’t getting much of a go, so it wasn’t injury keeping him out.
Yes he missed 2019. Big injury.
But other than that he’s played 19, 26 ,22 ,24 and 17 (shortened season).
Way better figures than Whitfield, Williams, Fyfe, Jelly, Heeney, Gawn or many other premiums.
Sloane is probably your biggest risk there (other than Daniher, but he’s rookie priced). Sloane disappears far too often to actually be considered a premium anymore. I think his 2019 scores were a last gasp of a becoming supercoach irrelevant player. I could be wrong, but I’d rather take a punt on a 23 year old at that price point than a 31 year old.
I actually prefer the forward line of the top team, other than Sloane it might actually be a better option. Laird playing as a midfielder but in your backline looks great.
Of course, the seagull looks better.
Mitchell is in doubt for R1, think he could be off to a slow start at best.
I’m a Crows fan so trust me when i tell anyone thinking about picking Sloane… just don’t do it. Great player, courageous and i have a lot of respect for him. However he’s 31 in a couple of months, prone to being tagged out of games and 50/50 that he’s going to miss multiple games through injury.
There’s no chance of him being a top 10 mid or making you enough money to be a stepping stone. Just a mid price trap, hate to say it
Hello Vicwood, at the end of 2020 SCT ran the THE NEVER AGAIN LIST. I replied that “NEVER AGAIN WOULD START WITHOUT LLOYD. Just do it.
Yeap ….
Loud and Clear.
I don’t actually mind Laird as a midfielder earlier and then transferring him to defence later once you sell some cash generating rookies. Especially if it means you can fit Whitfield and Lloyd in.
Me too. Especially seeing as defence looks like it has more solid options than the mids this year. I’m very wary of premiums losing value early this year and would rather take a punt on a mid pricer in defence than the mids.
I’m amazed at how many people aren’t considering injury risk in their selections even at this early phase of the preseason.
That’s to do with the first team picker thread, but I wanted to get in early so people have a think about it and discuss.
Father Dougal, I think you’d better come in and get all mathematical again…
Hello HH, agree with your commets, whats your thoughts on Williams ?
Covered it in the end of the other thread in detail.
Played 12 or less games in 5 of 8 seasons.
Averaged 99 playing while at GWS playing midfield in 2019. Priced at 84.
So you’re getting him for at best a 15% discount on midfield price, for a guy who is unlikely to play close to a full season.
I dunno that I’d take the risk for an $80k discount, midfield time or no.
Yes, Laird back into the DEF Line.
Wasn’t to keen on Williams but a lot are running him.
But Whitfield you just have to start. Right.?
Although factually correct that “12 or less games in 5 of 8 seasons” is a little bit misleading. The games that he missed in 2013/14/15 were not missed due to injury, they were his 1st 3 seasons and he was still trying to cement a place in the team.
In 2016 he broke into the team for round 3 a played every game for rest of the year.
In 2017 he missed 2 games
Missed all of 2018 after snapping achilles at training
2019 missed 2 games with a hammy (ave 122 in the fisrt 4 games after that)
2020 missed 4 with a thigh injury
So in reality apart from the achilles he’s been about average for games missed
Career % of seasons with 13 games or less Williams and Dunkley are almost exactly the same.
Josh Dunkley
debut 2016 Cemented his spot in 2018
2018 missed 2 games
2019 played all
2020 missed 7 with an ankle
Dunkley has played 13 or less games in 3 out of 5 seasons
If you haven’t played 20+ games 2 of the last 3 seasons you’re not in my starting side. And the reason you must can’t have been soft tissue related.
(Rookies and people with less than 2 seasons excepted.)
Yes it makes the pool of selectable players very small.
and last year excluded I presume?
You’ll be very limited if you only select those who played 20 or more in 2020
No, last year is included, I overlooked the 17 game season part and didn’t word my idea well.
12 of my keepers have missed a combined 10 games over the last 3 years from injury and 2 others are returning from injury last year.
Love it GP. So many punters look at averages and forget that its actual pts that get you places. Best way to do that is with premos who rarely miss. Its why the likes of Fyfe, Jelly, Toby Greene, are all in my never again list.
Whats better..a 20 gamer averaging 105, or a 15gamer averaging 110 ?
Not seeing alot of love for Cunnington at $439k, almost seems too good to pass up imo. Will be tough to fit both him and Rowell in but hard to justify keeping one out.
Thoughts?
Feel like it’s a wait and see how he goes in preseason kind of situation. If he looks 100% then I reckon a lot more people will be considering him.
I’d feel safer saving the 30k and starting ward. Similar age and SC output but one is coming back from a busted finger the other is recovering from/living with mystery hip and back issues.
He’s the one on my radar that I currently don’t have but will watch closely during pre-season. He would have to take a premos spot which is the tricky thing.
That’s all well and good. But where’s the TU/TD?
Just wanted to get some opinions, tossing up with which combo to go with, need either a defender or forward in that awkward ~450k range.
TU: Z. Williams and Dusty
TD: L. McDonald and Heeney
Without knowing your team, wouldn’t you be better with a genuine keeper and a genuine cash cow?
Potentially, depends how the rookies shape out. If they’re few and far between, I’ll probably be forced into one of those ~300k money makers.
Is it too early to look at first upgrades? Mine would be Butters and Williams in R6. Hopefully both have a few off days and stay under 500k. Way too early for a true keeper like Steele .DD
Plan A (The much prefer plan):
Basically targeting scorers with high variance like intercept defenders so hopefully Haynes or Ridley have one low game in row 3-5, which isn’t unlikely.
Plan B: Kill a cow in round five and blow a trade to get 60-80k i the bank to help with the round six upgrade.
Plan C: Jack Darling. Notorious slow started who averages high 80’s after the first 5 games. Long term loop hole him with a rookie to try and bump up his average as a F6
Plan C, isn’t a great plan.
Can someone please talk me out of selecting Sam Walsh…
Hasn’t missed a game in his first 2 seasons. Priced at $543,300 (to average 101 points)
2020 Averages
rounds 1-6: 78
rounds 7-13: 107
rounds 14-18: 121
I’m trying to find room for Titch and Walsh is the one most likely to make way… but something tells me he could go at 110-115 average this year and for 540K that’s hard to pass on
Just do it randy Tich is already there Walsh, though promising, is up and coming DD
Third season is usually the breakout and Titch has had off season shoulder surgery.
You’ve listed the only reason NOT to go Walsh, being the first 6 rounds thing.
Honestly, he’ll at worst dip a bit but will not lose you money long term.
I’d be watching Titch’s training before deciding. This one is going to the judges i think.
Sorry i can’t find it, but a quote from Titch said “I’ll be racing the clock to be ready for round 1”
Found it!
https://7news.com.au/sport/afl/tom-mitchell-lines-up-former-teammate-after-cheeky-jab-at-rebuilding-hawks-c-1911362
We knew it’d be close, but I think on that he’s gonna be a no from me. Team amendments below.
He is very safe. See my comments above about 20 game players averaging 100 or so.
Ok, this is where i’m at…
DEF- LLOYD, RYAN, LAIRD, WHITFIELD, MCDONALD, Gould.
Wehr, Bianco.
MID-NEALE, OLIVER, MACRAE, ZERRETT, HaTeLy, Phillips, Pedlar, Kemp.
Carrol, Mcinnes, Davies.
RUC-GAWN, GRUNDY.
Loop.
FWD-MARSHALL, Logan Mcdonald, Macrae, Cockatoo, Rowe, Durdin.
Bowey, Laurie.
First off, I will happily cut Hately to Hutchings for more money(rookies or whatever).
I have more trust in the defense than the forward’s so all but ignoring the fwd’s and going deep in defense.
All the defenders should score 100’s most weeks, which is what this side is about.
Durable(well not Whitfield) Proven scorers, Safe roll in teams(except Macrae, But i expect him to play mid) Huge ceilings.
Now just need those pesky rookies to show up(i have faith).
9k left over and Hatley if needed(Probably).
Don’t care about structure. Just care about giving myself the best chance of getting 10+ 100’s per week.
I like it. Actually thought about doing something similar because i have a lot more faith in the premium defenders than fwds.
Only catch is you’d want to make sure the fwd rookies have good job security and durability. Might pay to have a couple dpp players in the mid to swing fwd if required
Yep, thank’s Randy.
If the fwd rookies don’t arrive i’ll just carve hately up into an Impy, daniher, Hutchings and brown type of thing.
Phillips is mid only…
Also tossing up between Zerrett and Steel. But i don’t think it actually matters, unless i lose the whole thing by 20 points(LOL)
Good contingency plan.
Hi TOF nice mate real nice cause mine is very close . I went with 4 mid rookies cause they are there in plenty and MILERA FOR LAIRD who became Danger in agreeance with RANDY fwds need a spark not def ,THE REST is a carbon copy. As you say Hateley can alter things Thanks for the tich info now becomes MACRAE DD
TOF…how much cash ?
Hey wighty! I actually stated 9k plus hately.
Well i hope you don’t lose the whole thing by 20 pointsTOF!
Yeah I thought you were talking about Tom Phillips (hawks) at first but quickly realised and edited my comment when i figured it was Will Phillips (kang)!
First draft
DEF- Lloyd, WHITFIELD, LAIRD, DGB, GOULD, WEHR
BENCH- L. JONES, HIGHMORE
MID- NEALE, OLIVER, Z. MERRETT, T. MITCHELL, CRIPPS, W. PHILLIPS, T. DOW, VALENTE
BENCH- L. PEDLAR, T. POWELL, RCD
RUCK- GRUNDY, PREUSS
BENCH- TREACY
FOR- DANGERFIELD, SIDEBOTTOM, R. MARSHALL, BOSENAVULAGI, J. ROWE, McCREEY
BENCH- COCKATOO, H. JONES
Guns and rookies, hopefully the rookies show up. What are everybodies thoughts on Cripps?
I think Cripps is a low risk / high reward selection. Only missed 2 games in the last 3 seasons and prior to last year he posted averages of 119 & 117.
Last year he was obviously struggling and sure, there is a chance that he doesn’t get back to his best, but I expect him to put up at least 110 average so for just over $500k I think it’s a risk worth taking.
I agree, it’s kinda the nature of the beast that value picks will be coming off an injury. If they have a strong durability history I think they are worth the risk.
Collective risk is a problem, currently have Cripps and Rowell in my team, with Rowell being more of a risk because of lack of information at the AFL level.
Good looking squad DBB .Deep in def and DGB could work as well. Not convinced with Preuse yet even as a cash cow.Set and forget rucks for me cheers DD
Still have $208,500 salary remaining
F3 & F4 are currently Heeney and Brown but i’m not set on either, they could become anyone at this stage. If you have any suggestions i’d love to hear them because those spots are giving me headaches!
Also, Rowell i’m not sold on, could go up to a premium or down to a Heppell/Hately type depending on funds. Wait and see how preseason plays out.
Actually looking forward to a few polls with the $200-$500 guys such as Rowell, Williams, Heeney, Hately, Heppell, Ziebell, Daniher etc to see what everyone on this site thinks!
Def: Ryan, Laird, Stewart, McDonald (Jones, Wehr, Worrell, Gould)
Mid: Neale, Oliver, Walsh, Cripps, Rowell (Powell, Valente, Berry, McInnes, Downie, Davies)
Ruck: Grundy, Preuss (Treacy)
Fwd: Dangerfield, Marshall, Heeney, Brown (Macrae, Cockatoo, Rowe, Durdin)
Brown is my 31st pick, If i had a bit more cash I’d grab him.
history of being durable and will probably average 75+ and has the last bye.
I wouldn’t stack my team with guys like that but one long term stepping stone in the forward line could be handy.
I can’t see myself actually going with Brown come round 1… I feel 260k is on the high end for a 75 average stepping stone. Unfortunately I don’t trust 99% of the forwards this year.
Does anyone know how to calculate the weekly price increase for Brown to average 75?
Would love to select Dunkley, rate him highly as a player but we all know the risk there with Bevo. Hopefully preseason can present us with a couple of decent forward options!
DEF:
Lloyd, Laird, Whitfield
Grainger-Barras, Jones, Bianco (Chapman, Gould)
MID:
Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Cripps
Phillips, Powell, Kemp, Valente (Macrae, Collier-Dawkins, Berry)
RUCK:
Gawn, Grundy (Treacy)
FWD:
Dangerfield, Dunkley, Martin
Ziebell, Cockatoo, Bergman (Worrell, Rioli)
$14.2k remaining
On the surface this is a ripper team pure guns (12) and no midpricers yet . still you have 10 rookies AND LITTLE CASH..Am I missing something. Ziebell Grainger and Phillips are high end rookies but it still short of that risky m/p most other teams including mine has.When you consider Cripps is bargain based it gets worse Maybe you have 200k somewhere None the less a top team DD
‘morning all,
Thoughts on Serong for this year…..
The pros:
Was getting alot of centre bouce attendances from his fifth game onwards.
Plays inside mid.
Highly rated junior.
Stats (adjusted for longer games) stack up with Oliver’s first year.
Kicks more than handballs
Has the last bye.
The con:
Disposal % average (not great, not terrible, in the mid range) maybe that’s the kicking preferance..
Isn’t huge by AFL standards
Is mid only so needs to jump up to 105 at least.
2nd year break outs are alot rarer than 3rd-4th year.
My guess is he is more likely not to hit keeper level, but can be used as a stepping stone to someone else. With the last bye could be given a shot at being a keeper and if he fails upgrade from him in round 14 to someone that has had his bye.
If he does hit keeper level you have a cheap premo.
There’s other players I’d back to break out before him, so he isn’t in my side. currently.
In the right structure he could be a piece to a successful supercoach side.
Cheers thanks GP.
i was wondering about his disposal efficiency.
Going with my gut a bit. Looking for a league win.
Rookies higher priced to allow for a little round 1 flexibility. $17k remaining. Rip me to shreds!!
Defenders
Lachie Whitfield $561,600
Tom Stewart $538,000
Zac Williams $458,600
Trent Rivers $350,400
Isaac Cumming $288,000
Denver Grainger-Barras $184,800
Lachlan Jones $139,800
Bailey Laurie $117,300
Midfielders
Matt Crouch $594,700
Taylor Adams $588,800
Patrick Cripps $523,700
Tim Taranto $453,700
Will Phillips $198,300
Luke Pedlar $162,300
Luke Valente $123,900
Alex Davies $102,400
Finn Maginness $195,600
Braeden Campbell $189,300
Archie Perkins $171,300
Rucks
Max Gawn $751,400
Brodie Grundy $648,200
Josh Treacy $102,400
Forwards
Rowan Marshall $557,200
Shai Bolton $462,400
Isaac Heeney $454,500
Tom Phillips $402,600
Joe Daniher $233,300
Nikolas Cox $175,800
Will Kelly $135,400
James Rowe $117,300
Props for the Trent Rivers and Taranto picks. I like them but not brave enough to pick them.
The curious case of Isaac Cummings, I’d really like some other peoples opinions on him. Ash has cemented his spot in the side and they lost Shaw and Williams. And my guess is Whitfield plays more wing that half back (with the new interchange rules)
The spot is his to lose but I want to see which spot he gets.
In 2020 he played 3 HA games and to 2 practise games.
In 2 of the HA games (rnd 1 & 2) he only ave 5k, 4.5hb, 1.5mk (52SC)
In the 3rd HA game (rnd 18) he had 11k, 5hb, 8mk (97SC)
In the 2 practise games of 2020 he ave 11k, 10hb, 6mk (86SC)
Was his rounds 1 & 2 role the same as his round 18 and practise games role?
If he’s not marking he’s not scoring
Yeah, if Cummings not in, Wehr may well get a look in for the role.
Cheers for the nod on Rivers, I think he might be the one that gets off the leash off HB for Demons. Have had to go skinny in the middle, but really – apart from Neale and Oliver, i’m not sold there are that many dead cert top 8 mids to pick prior to the season proper. Gawn and Grundy for Captains.
To quote a review of the demons draft last year “Rivers will be their best kick.”
They need some precision going forward that’s for sure. I think there is a role there for him, top of the food chain for he gets to kick it forward after handball chains.
On the midfield issue, I’m avoiding pricey mids as I think they are inflated from the shorter qtrs. (i.e got more points from scaling than they will next year).
New interchange rules????……..do they have to tuck in their jumpers and pull up their socks and bow to the umpires when they go on and off the field now???…….oh, wait, sorry, i’m getting confused with cricket, apologies chaps.
Like the Crouch and Bolton selections.
Tay Tay could also surprise this year, he has a HUGE roll at the pies this year.
what do we think team?? Milera is my biggest concern at this point, but he’s priced at about a 57 average, and thinking he can at worst provide a 75 average based on his previous seasons, in which case I move him on after he makes some coin
DEF: Lloyd, Laird, Z.Williams, Milera, L.Jones, Gould // Wehr, Highmore
MID: Neale, Fyfe, Adams, Cripps, Heppell, W.Phillips, Powell, Valente // Poulter, Downie, Davies
RUCK: Gawn, Grundy // Treacy
FWD: Danger, Marshall, Heeney, Ziebel, Hutchings, F.Macrae // Cockatoo, Rowe
As a crows fan I love the Milera selection. I was actually on him last year as one of the 1.4% of coaches to select him to breakout before injury cut that short.
Pick 11 in the 2015 draft, line breaking speed which the Crows desperately need, silky smooth skills, should see a lot of the ball at half back, can role though the middle for short stints. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged 90 this season. Consistency will be the telling factor.
I’m waiting to see his preseason but he’s top of my mid pricer watch list atm.
I like most of your team and share your hope for Heppell.
The bits that I disagree with:
I don’t agree that there is enough evidence to support a set & forget ruck strategy NicNat, Goldy & Rob could all equal Grundy or even be 10pts p/game better than Grundy and even English has the potential to match him. I’ll wait until it’s obvious who the #2 ruck will be then I’ll get him.
Grundy only ave 108 after round 12 last year and he’s priced at 121, he could get a whole lot cheaper.
I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Milera will be more than an 85 ave player (remember that all top 10 def from 2020 ave over 100). He appears to be moving into the old Brodie Smith role which isn’t a high scoring role with Laird in the team.
There are players who cost 100K > 200k less that will make you a lot more money faster than Milera will and they will probably only ave 5pts >10pts p/game less.
Milera will take 10 weeks to increase 150k, averaging mid 80’s
Jeffrey would take 5 weeks averaging in the mid 60’s to 70’s
Even Lachie Young has the potential to match Milera for score and exceed him by 100k in cash generation.
Maybe cull some expensive rookies and turn Milera into a keeper like the underpriced Tom Stewart.
I’d be suprised if both Phillips and Powell play round 1 so you can save 40-80k there. Hutchings isn’t in Eagles best 22 and when was he was a 60 ave player you can better for 117k
yep i hear that! Grundy hated the hubs though and had niggles towards the backend. Started pre season early so I reckon he is actually underpriced to what he his 2021 could be. He loves the longer games as well and cashes in late in the qtr after he has worked the other ruck into the ground
phillips will defs play, and powell i would be surprised if he didnt with north needing to blood young mids, but can always just replace with another rookie, as is the case with all rookies.
And feel the same with milera, but if things turn bad can definitely downgrade to a high priced rookie who is flying, otherwise if he averages 75 will make 100k and I can then jump off… definitely is a watch though for pre season!
Milera has all the talent in the world. I mentioned this when talking about Serong, round-14-bye midpricers aren’t quite as risky as you can ride them through the 2 early byes as cover then upgrade them with some very fat rookies by then.
And you have lots of trades through the byes to set up the upgrade.
Amendments based on injury risk. Yes, it’s got more guys with injury last year lol (but good 20+ games prior)
Jake Lloyd 656400
Luke Ryan 576500
Rory Laird 564800
Jeremy Howe 517900
Denver Grainger Barass 184800
Lachie Jones 139800
Jacob Wehr 117300
Bailey Laurie 117300
Mid
Lachie Neale 721800
Clayton Oliver 656700
Patrick Cripps 523700
Matt Rowell 495100
Jackson Hately 310300
Will Phillips 198300
Luke Pedlar 162300
Tom Powell 153300
Finlay Macrae 126300
Luke Valente 123900
Reef McInnes 117300
Ruck
Max Gawn 751400
Braydon Preuss 303000
Josh Treacy 102400
Forwards
Ryan Marshall 557200
Dustin Martin 541600
Isaac Heeney 454500
Ben Brown 260300
Logan McDonald 193800
Charlie Comben 123900
Nakia Cockatroo 123900
James Rowe 117300
Spare cash is lower than I would like at $6900. Fair chance I might need to axe a premium rookie by start of season on this team.
Comben injured. will probably start late. (stress fracture)
Ref; AFL.com.au
I’m interested in the ave score reduction for players coming back from knee reco’s.
Does anybody have that info? eg SC score in season prior to injury V SC score in comeback season
It was talked about a couple years ago if I recall. They can come back very good but never better than what they were(there was probably an exception) usually 5pts down prom their peak average if all goes well.
Don’t quote me on this.
What’s everyone thoughts on Danger? He burnt me early on last season but then really hit form in the back end of the season. He’s expensive but also have to remember that with Cameron in the side now, he’ll be getting much less time up forward and more time in the guts which bodes well for his scoring.
He is in my side.
Doesn’t have the popular round 14 bye.
Soft early draw.
There’s a limit to how many 600k+ players you can generate cash to upgrade too.
He usually drops early on these last few years to sub $500k so I’d rather wait for that, although if you choose him and not Dusty to start you get the same outcome from Dusty too.
He won’t go up, he’s in the declining phase of his career and will play a lot more forward in the role Ablett used to play.
He’s still going to be a top 6 forward though. He’s resiliant and always plays 20 odd matches.
This is a classic case of starting with a guy to save a trade and knowing you’ll lose maybe $50k on it to save a trade.
Both approaches are equally valid if you value your trades and $$$ equally.
Does anyone know how the majority of our injury prones obtained their injuries?…..was it during contests, or just plain running????? eg buddy-running. ablett-contests etc.
The AFL have annual injury reports with break down. You can find them online.
The most common injury is hamstrings.
What about concussion?
Thanks guys,……i’m probably trying to establish if some players might be subject to hard knocks easier than others hence their actual roles. eg they cop a “bump” and they’re out out for 4 weeks with a shoulder or rib. (Exaggeration of course)
“Hamstrings traditionally occupy the top of the injury list,and 2020 was no exception. This season, they accounted for 26.2%of all game injuries(up from 15.8% in 2019), and 79.7% of all game muscle injuries (up from 62.4% in 2019). Concussion also continues to be a concern for the AFL, accounting for 13.3%of all game injuries, although this figure is likely underestimated due to inconsistencies in reporting”
from 2020 AFL Injury Snapshot.
TU: Jack Ziebell
TD: Dyson Heppell
Similar age and height
Heppell 90=100 SC
Ziebell 80-90 SC
Heppell 20 games last 2 years
Ziebell 30 games last 2 years
In 2020 Ziebell strained a knee ligament in round 1 then did a hammy in round 4 and again in round 7 he came back in round 16 and played the last 3 games of the season with SC scores of 60, 36, 61. In his non-injury affected games earlier in the season he ave 94
In 2020 Heppell made a comeback from foot surgery during the 2019 post season and again in Feb 2020. He missed round 1 2020 and after round 2 he broke his ankle at training and missed the next 13 weeks. He came back for rounds 15 & 16 averaging 54.5 SC
He missed the final 2 games 2020 due to ongoing complications with his foot injuries.
Both are streets ahead of any players priced similarly and both are priced at a level that will enable them to escalate in value quickly.
It could all be irrelevant with Dyson recently seen sitting out training with his foot in a bucket of ice.
I think that Ziebell is more likely to play and he could even increase his output over his 2019 sc of 91 now that Higgins has left
Ziebell also battled calf issues in the preseason last year and was in doubt for round one last season.
Ziebell has the price advantage too.
He might have to come into consideration, but only if the forward rookies are scary thin.
Based on price and condition of body I think I’d rather punt on Daniher actually wanting to play than either of these two.
Getting the rucks right is crucial to successful supercoaching as the scores are so high.
Most supercoaches are happy to take massive risks on their rucks and many even believe that massive risk is the safest way to play.
So, who is the biggest risk in the ruck department for 2021?
I don’t have a crystal ball, all I have is a calculator and some numbers so I can’t tell you definitively who will be the biggest risk but I can tell you statistically who is most likely to miss games.
#1 Max Gawn / Mr Fragility / Breakdown Betty
Max is the undisputed King of supercoach ruck averages but he’s softer than BBQ ice cream.
In 10-seasons of AFL footy Max has played 14 OR LESS games 6 times and only played every game twice. Do the maths, Max only plays more than 14 games 40% of the time and 80% of the time he will not play every game!
I wonder how the injury risk nazis will get around that one
Hi Kevin,
Love your detailed breakdowns. I’m not starting Gawn this year, mainly because i don’t think he can back up that average. I’ll wait for Preuss to make some cash while Gawn drops and trade Gawn in then.
However he has only missed 4 games in the last 3 years (3 of those games last year) so maybe he’s found a way to keep his body in a slightly healthier state? or he’s due to get injured!
Lol, if he doesn’t get injured, you’ve lost supercoach.
Have to RISK him.
He tends to come back at full scoring pretty quickly if not straight away.
But certainly if you have Gawn you really should consider a swingman f/r such as Marshall to cover the 2-3 games or so he normally misses when he’s out.
The other option is to expect a trade out and back in on him.
Unfortunately as TOF says, you basically have to risk him. Since they messed with Ruck scoring basically all the other rucks bar Grawndy have seen their outputs curtailed by 15 points a match, while theirs have been boosted by that much.
You can’t expect to win losing 30 points on a best 18 position.
I had a feeling that ruck scoring may have been interpreted differently at some stage of 2020 so I broke it down for 6 rucks.
Interestingly Max had the highest average but due to missing 4 games his total points was less than Grundy. If you didn’t have ruck backup for those 4 games your season was ruined and it was even ruined for some who did have backup.
There may well have been some change to score interpretations around the half-way mark of the season as NicNat was the only ruck from the 6 that matched or increased his ave.
Gawn dropped by 13, grundy by 6, Goldy by 31, ROB by 3, English by 7
Gawn – (Only played 14)
1st half of season ave 145.4
Last half of season ave 132.5
Last 5 games ave 137.6
Grundy 2020 season ave 120.7 played all games
1st half of season ave 123.7
Last half of season ave 117.3
Last 5 games ave 108.6
Goldy 2020 season ave 112.0 played all games
1st half of season ave 127.6
Last half of season ave 94.5
Last 5 games ave 84
NicNat 2020 season ave 110.5 missed 1 game
1st half of season ave 100.6
Last half of season ave 123.3
Last 5 games ave 116.2
R.O’B 2020 season ave 106.2 played all games
1st half of season ave 107.6
Last half of season ave 104.8
Last 5 games ave 111.6
English 2020 season ave 102.6 played all games
1st half of season ave 105.9
Last half of season ave 98.9
Last 5 games ave 96.8
Max is obviously #1 for averages but #2 isn’t so clear.
For the first half of the season #2 was clearly Goldy who averaged 4pts p/game more than Grundy.
For the 2nd half of the season NicNat was clearly #2 averaging 6pts p/game more than Grundy and even ROB in his last 5 games averaged 3pts p/game more than Grundy
Grundy had a bad season. The others had decent /good seasons. Grundy has more room to improve. Meaning push a 140ave.
He is durable and potentially undervalued. Is a big tick from me.
Over the course of a full season Grundy was clear number 2. That’s why you select him. It’s not realistic to swap from ruck to ruck based on their 6 round form.
He’s averaged 130, 130 and 120 over the last 3 season. That puts him clearly in the top 2 rucks for me
I wasn’t suggesting that we should Chop & Change rucks regularly during the season I was identifying that starting with 2 prem rucks is not the best way to maximise return on investment unless they are both Max Gawn.
There are questions over Grundy for 2021
His average dropped by 10pts p/game in 2020 when almost every other ruck increased their average.
His average for 2020 was inflated by monster scores against begginners or part time rucks.
179 V English – still a baby learning the craft
151 v A Phillips – couldn’t get a game at Carlton
135 v Jacobs replaced in team by Mumford
144 v D.Fort Geelong only ever played a few games
147 v Sinclair (Sydney forward)
151 ave in those 5 games without those games he only topped 120 twice and ave 107
It wont be so easy in 2021, English will be better, Bombers now have an actual ruck, Preuss is better than Mumford and Jacobs, sure cats and swans are basically ruckless so Grundy could go 130+ in those games
In 2020 his scores against ALL experienced fulltime rucks fell.
The comps 2nd best stoppage clearance player now plays for somebody else (pies next best stoppage player is Adams ranked 17th).
Collingwood are in a talent hole caused by spending too much on Players like Grundy
Great research Kevin.
Does these stats also include whether there was 1-2 rucks being used for and agst during those games?
Also Gawn, Nic Nat, ROB etc stats as well in the same format?
Ahh right, now I understand where you’re going with it. Valid points.
The way i see it, i have to start with at least 1 of Gawn and Grundy… Gawn is more susceptible to injury and i believe overpriced. No one has ever averaged 133+ for 2 seasons in a row.
Im hoping Grundy just had an off year. Worst case i still think he’ll be around the 115-120 mark. Best case 130 again.
So I’m stuck with Grundy… can’t bring myself to go without both of them, maybe for someone with bigger balls than me!
And that sums up why N N is the far better R2 .As your Englishes get better Grundy will fall even further,Cameron is on his way up and may have more ruck minutes Great advice Kevin
Anyone here have information on the number of rookies starting in Round 1 the past 5-10 years?
Well not exact science (I’m sure it’s around somewhere) GUNS N ROOKIES is a prenial favourite strategy for a reason. So at leased going by 12-14 premiums, on average at leased 15-17 rookies get named every year round 1.
had a read of that….a must read…http://supercoachtalk.com/guns-and-rookies-or-go-home/
was just wondering whether anyone had actual figures…..atm I have G&R team based on 13/17 and another team more balanced in case 9 rookies don’t get a R1 gig….just hate that first Thursday night before R1 panic when rookies are overlooked
just lock in your GUNS.
Create a rookie watch list in each line ranked first choice to last…all of them(JS, likely position, how they will score points Tackles, intercept marks etc) and as soon as the green dot appears lock them in. But check the games just before bounce to confirm.
If a lower ranking rookie is playing thursday and a high ranking rookie is playing sunday don’t be afraid to wait for the higher ranked rookie(provided they are most likely a gun).
There’s also coaches that tend to like stable teams or give their rookies an extended run.
If they are named round 1 they are probably their for a while.
TU- ZERRETT
TD- STEEL
What’s thoughts on starting lyons and neale ?
Feel like lyons is the only that’s worth the low 600k..
Or would matt crouch be a better option
Lyons will be a pod pick, he is probably a bit over priced but he is durable and safe pick.
In the right structure I’d pick him. Meaning you might have 1-2 risky players then lots of safe players.
Lyons was my 3rd mid picked and will stay. An excellent pick mainly due to reliability ,similar to Caleb Daniels who will score 100 nearly every week . Of course 100 won’t cut it as a mid so eliminating players like Walsh and Duncan types but 110 from Lyons is well within his reach ..M4 presents a bigger task for me and i have had 4 thru there Duncan Tich Crouch and currently Macrae DD
Lyons has only ever played a full season once and he passed the 100pts mark for the first time in his 9-year career last year.
He pigs out on soft midfields with a 3 game ave of 141 against the tiny melbourne midfield but struggles against teams with big bodied midfielders he only ave 79 against Cats, Saints, Blues last year.
600k for that is ridiculous.
Hey Kevin! whilst I do say alot of tounge in cheek stuff. I really appreciate the time and effort you put in to your analysis’.
I look forward to seeing any player that you break down and trends that you highlight.
Keep up the great work.
steele has a lot worse though Kev By memory he had 4 in the 90’s leading up to his 122 and only ton also ;Team change has made all the difference to Lyons The Lions are a much better coached team than what he had .Throw some relevant data at me but Lyons at M3 all the way . DD
Not good for bye rounds.
Dangerfield changed clubs. Had one of his best seasons.
Mitchell changed clubs. Had one of his best seasons
Neale changed clubs. Had one of his best seasons.
Treloar changed clubs…
Or maby Pendles…
Magnets will play him fullback.Just don’i trust him and Dunkley wii be looked after as well.I think Bont will suffer and forced to play that Danger Petracca role DD
Interesting question/thought about Dunkley. He got promsed more midfield time by all reports.
I think they will roll like this if it’s true:
Wings: Macrae/Hunter
Halfforwards: Bonts/Smith
Midfield: Trelor, Dunkley, Libba.
Libba being the defensive mid.
That would put a lot of pressure on Dunkley to perform though as he his pushing some guns out of the midfield
I think you are spot on Gra Pol, but apart from key position players most players are following the ball around these day’s like under 13s.
Macrae is a HBG, is Dunkley?
Is DeminsDelight an alter ego of DemonsDelight ?
Are there any players that aren’t in your side that you are worried about not owning?
I don’t have Dunkley and Howe. It concern me they might blow up.
I just cut Whitfield for Stewart (durability).
No danger or dunkly (but probably won’t be selected enough to be huge mistakes, I hope… )
I don’t see much risk in not having Howe to start, he is coming back from a knee reco and 25% of his games LY were sub 90 (NOT including the game he got injured in). He has never ave more than 94 in a season where he’s played more than 4 games.
I don’t know of any players who have managed to ave 100 and play more than 15 in the year that they came back from a Knee reco.
Most recent memory is Docherty ave 115 year before reco and ave 87 in comeback year with 30% less kicks, 50% less marks and 60% less tackles.
If howe looks good in first 3 you can easily switch him in for an under performer or make him the first upgrade a couple of games later.
I think we should have the right to demand from all the AFL coaches their playing format for each player for each game, for each quarter (with and into the wind), weather conditions and if they lose the toss…..oh, and did I say, who’s actually starting on the bench and for how long……hmm, hmm…LOL
…..if only……
AND we should demand from the Herald Sun that ALL of the points scoring actions are documented and available free of charge to all competition entrants. By ALL I mean HTA, Contested Marks, HBG etc
If they remove the mystery in the scoring system luck could become less than 50% of the winning formula
I’d settle for each coaches personal phone number so we can call to ask any supercoach relevant questions we require
BLAH, Cookie cutter teams all round. No thanks! (LOL)
……..and all this would be feasible if there was no gambling involved.
Ever wondered why the softball / baseball coaches weird body language?
……or a cricket bowler almost has to declare in advance what they are going to bowl, no more body language signals to fielders or the keeper……..
In reference to Gra Pol’s brilliant assessment of the probable perfect layout of the Doggie’s “on ballers”, how many of us think Mr Magnets would actually have them all on the field at the same time?………and for that matter, full premos of cats, lions, etc.?
T/u full premos and interchange with 2nd lieutenants
Or
T/d mixed combos
Coaches like Fagan, Longmire, and Hinkley like to have very stable structures/roles defined. (The swans played some random midfielders last year due to injury.).
Don’t know enough about the cats to comment, hopefully someone that watches them more can comment on that.
Hot off the presses, from his radio interview
“We’re all going to have to be a bit more flexible in there to fit us all in (to the midfield), I think it’s just going to be very exciting to see how we all mesh together”
Jack Macare via @RSN927
With reference to our previous discussions about rucks, i’d be watching the preseason forward planning of teams with extra interest this year. ie Will teams have all their forward talls in the 50 metre arc as well as their no. 1 ruck?, Will the no.1 be taking boundary throw ins if it’s in the 50 metres etc. Hence less Gawn (IMO) who is not confident kicking for goal may just stay a kick back from general play when ball is in their 50. Thus less involvement points if something actually does go right and they score a goal.
Big one for me, will the dropping in the interchange cap end the days of 2 rucks being named in a team. (It wasn’t a very popular choice anyway)
Are teams going to roll with one ruck and a forward or defender pinch hitting in the ruck. Geelong plays an extra tall defender who then rucks and richmond copied them the last 2 finals.
I’m quite curious if the dogs play both English and Martin over the season, I suspect they’ll do it for a few games then can it.
Probably depends on who Dunkly prefers….LOL
I have no idea how they are going to go with Dunkley. Bailey smith laughed it off in his interview the other day.
Bevo seems to come from the Shaun-Grigg-school of back up ruckman and sometimes players a tall mid in there, just to get an extra mid around the ball.
“Sam Walsh has gone to another level, his intent is just absolutely first class in everything he does. ”
Andrew Russell Carlton Director of high performance 15/01/21
He also had some praise for Fisher & Dow! A couple of bargains there if they can reach potential.
https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/849280/russell-hardest-pre-season-program-to-date
Walsh in a 3AW interview While he started playing on the wing, the 2019 NAB AFL Rising Star also spent additional time playing as an inside midfielder towards the end of 2020 – a role he relished.
Now, with a better understanding of the expectations of what’s required to play as an inside midfielder at an AFL level, Walsh is looking to work on his weaknesses over the pre-season period to ensure he has the versatility to play the role required by Coach David Teague in 2021.
I just want to remind everybody that Sam Walsh averaged 120 in the 5 games that he played as an inside mid in 2020 (the last 5 games). In one of those games V Sydney he scored 161, he scored 132 V GWS and 119 in the final games against a rampaging lions midfield.
Sam says that he’s identified the weaknesses that resulted in such a poor performance, by his standards, in 2020 and he expects to be a lot better in 2021. This is backed up by the Director of High Performance.
I’m expecting something very exciting for Supercoaches from Sam Walsh this year, in the 3aw interview he says that his focus is to have more on-ball time. hahahahaha The kid just about topped the league for onball time in 2020
In my team already 😛 would pick him twice if I could 😀
The downside is that Cripps only ave 81.6 in those 5 games where Sam joined the inside mids. In the 5 games before Walsh joined the inside mids Cripps ave 110
Even if you exclude the 26 that Cripps scored in the final game against Brisbane his ave was only 95.5 while Walsh was an inside mid.
If Walsh continues as an inside mid in 2021 I think a 110 ave is all that we can expect from Cripps
There’s a point where you have to ask how much risk you’re willing to carry. There’s 3 cheaper mids coming back from shoulder surgery, cripps being one of them.
What will Cripps be doing this year?
I’m stuck at Walsh, Zerrett and Steel.
Walsh could Uber breakout.
Steel has crouch and prone to tagging.
Zerrett had burnt me before (ko first round) not to mention tags.
But it’d these 3 due to their upside. Not really fussed which. Probably come down to the byes deciding. (or are they all the same haven’t looked yet).
Get your player pool first, then use the byes as tie breakers.
Thoughts on Parker anyone?
We’re his low scores due to Steele impersonations or Zerretts…..or maybe both…???
Luke Parker?
His ave was actually better than previous 3 years. looks like he was only tagged once on 2020 and put up an 87 in that game. I thought that he was as to be expected a season high of 141 Twelve times 100+ from 17 games seven times 120+
It was the 45 against the Tiges in round 6 that hurt without that spud score his ave would have been 110.1
Once upon a time he was 10pts better after the bye but he seems to have evened out since 2019. I wont be having him unless he goes back to his old ways and drops 75k – 100k before the byes and ave 120 after them.
Cheers Kevin.
I think the others were him tagging.
‘Might have to check in reference to Kennedy games and the young’ns to match.
IMO it puts him in the Duncan class, the one that Neale graduated from.
Thanks again Kevin
From a swans fan Parker is wearing more of the heavy midfield load without the physical form of say a Josh Kennedy (or a Patrick Cripps).
He’s a brilliant player, but he’s being forced to play outside of his natural role and has been for a number of years.
He’ll go there abouts again. More than good enough for the role he needs to play for the team and less than good enough to be supercoach relevant in the midfield.
Injuries and head hits are also taking a toll. Just like say Joel Selwood.
I wish we had the midfield talent to let him play the way he should, but we don’t.
He’ll fluctuate between 95 and 110 all season, but will average maybe 100-105 which just isnt enough for a midfield keeper.
If he was a dpp forward he’d be in virtually every team.
D: Lloyd, Laird, McDonald, Docherty, Jones, Highmore, Gould, Wehr
M: Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Cripps, Phillips, Perkins, Powell, Kemp, Berry, Durdin, Davies
R: Gawn, Grundy, Treacy
F: Dunkley, Marshall, Heeney, Robertson, Macrae, Rowe, Cockatoo, Laurie.
And the absolute cherry on top: $0 remaining.
T/U: Boak
T/D: Gaff
Some early observations, keen to hear everyone else’s thoughts:
The midfielders are batting much deeper this season than they were last season, and there is ALOT of value to be found in cheaper mids who could potentially be premos (Cripps, Rowell, Cunnington etc.). There is also a lot of value in cheaper premo mids who have the potential to have a big jump in scoring similar to the likes of Steele, Oliver and Petracca last year.
As such, I think we’re going to see a lot more different teams with a lot more PODs, especially through the middle. Even just looking at this thread so far, there’s plenty of unique midfields, whereas last year, most teams had the same cookie cutter group of midfielders, selecting 4/5 of the uber premos and then going rookies. There’s a lot more value to be found this year, and I think an optimal strategy (among others) could actually be going 1-2 uber premo mids (Neale, Steele, Oliver etc.) and then taking a punt on others who are cheaper who could end up with similar scoring outputs. It’s riskier but could seriously pay off if it means cash can be spread evenly elsewhere. For example, Cripps has the potential to be a 110-115 average, and Cunnington could be a 105-110 average. Both are very underpriced and I’ll definitely be keeping a keen eye during preseason.
All in all, I think it’s going to be a fun supercoach season for the coaches who are willing to take a punt on some PODs. This is a season where they could really pay off, we’re almost spoilt for choice in the midfield and I don’t think we’ll see too much of the same group of midfielders being selected.
I may be wrong, but I hope not, because taking a punt and playing with a bit of risk is what makes SC all the more fun IMO.
One lesson I’ve learnt… Don’t mess with your mids. Only ever gamble on 1.
M5 or M6. No stepping stones, No potential breakouts, No fallen premiums(unless 520k+) should occupy m1-m4.
This is mainly due to the fact that they get stuck there to long.
Took me a couple of seasons to learn this.
%wise cheap options(250k-500k) cause more grief than a rookie(M3-M5).
yes agree there TOF As I said below mids are certainly not set in stone bar OLIVER STEELE and NEALE so I will be watching JLT closely and if it isn’t clear I will settle on 5 prem def and 3 mids.Sounds radical but there are plenty of debuting type rookie mids that i am confident in and very very few defenders , Long way to go yet DD
The longer we go into the preseason the more the teams become alike, partly because of injuries and established performance during trials, but mostly because of groupthink.
I expect that as we go on, the teams being posted will become a lot more similar.
Just like they do every year.
Go back and take a look at last year’s january team picker threads and you will see the proof.
Hi Morty Will your Cunnington Walsh type players be there at the end ?I doubt it,there are just too many better performed mids ,though i agree only 3 or 4 are locks Oliver,Steele and Neale but the other 5 could be out of 6 or 7 main players Tich MacRae Lyons Merrett M Crouch Bont and Jelly would head my list All 7 have a reason to watch them early rather than pick early Magnets ,injury. playing club and role will be what i wan’t to see Not many of these breakouts actually succeed. I may even go 5 deep in the defense at the expense of a mid but it won’t be a midpricer replacement . Still we are all different this time of year and i wouldn’t be risking a breakout midpricer in the mids -,fwds or def yes like Butters Milera or Williams/ At this stage i will have something like 5 premium def 3 posssibly 4 prem mids 2 prem rucks and 2 prem fwds that’s 12 uber prems and 18 rookie types including players like Ben Brown Ziebells and Young. only my opinion Morty and like you could very easily be wrong cheers DD
I reckon doggy mids should be avoided with Dunkley promised more mid time…hope that doesn’t happen and he moves to Tullamarine next year.
With the arrival of Bailey Smith, there are just too many doggy mids to share the points.
Whats peoples thought on Will Setterfield? Everyone is talking about Walsh but i think this bloke could have a big year! 6 scores over 100 and 3 that came close to cracking the 100 jumping 29 points from 2019 average
ATM, IMO, has a worrying history of tagging duties. Will reassess after preseason, but will probably still decide “it’s a no for me”….which will probably make him a brilliant POD. LOL
His position on the wing could be under threat from Newman or other due to the arrival of Saad
Is Marshall a good choice without dpp? Top 3 fwd?
Considering not starting him and having him as first upgrade.
Apparently Ryder is in really good shape. And I want my premiums scoring 100’s every week.
but he has DPP
Who else will you have to cover Gawns games off?
If Gawn has games off, he’s injured. Downgrade to Marshall. Due to Gawn being injured now, he actually will drop in price.
Then get him back in.
So get Gawns captain scores, trade him out and bank cash, then trade him back in on his injury effected new price.
Obviously you don’t want this happening. Would be easier to just trade in Marshall asap for cover. Gawn only has to play for about 6 rounds before you can get Marshall in.
Due to ryder effect, Marshall could be low 500k. Which is also why (Ryder) I’m not keen on Marshall except for his dpp. Just not sure the dpp means he’s a must start. But definitely a player to get in asap.
A few days back in this thread Powerplay referred to a must-read 2018 post by Father Dougal which compared the merits of various SC starting structures – you’ll need to be familiar with it to follow where I am heading. http://supercoachtalk.com/guns-and-rookies-or-go-home/
FD sets up four model teams that start out with varying structures and then progresses them – with consistent constraints & assumptions – through a mock SC season to see which starting line-up provides the maximum team value and season score. Although the real SC comp incorporates more variables and complexity, FD’s models are very instructive as they do cover the main known drivers.
The first two teams are really straw-men, the final two are team Chimay with an extreme 17 Rookie – 13 Gun combo and team Guinness with 14 Rookies and 16 (slightly cheaper) Guns. In FD’s models Chimay scores higher (48,163 vs 45,796) and this is down to it having more starting rookies(cows). The rookie assumptions – being priced at $125K but scoring at 60 pts a game are quite reasonable but they are the critical leveraging variable in FD’s modelling.
My SC record is modest and perhaps that’s because I suffer from mid-price madness. In search of a cure I have reconstructed FD’s models and added one modification. My Islay (mid-strength blend) team consists of 10 (125K) rookies, 8 (600K) guns and 12 players in a separable mid-pricers category. This mix could be juggled around but under this assumption my mids would average about 325K.
I have retained all of the relevant constraints of FD’s models and cash in my rookies on the same time-line, 4 at week 10, 4 at week 12 & the remaining 2 at week 14. Unused trades are not considered. On these settings, with just 10 starting rookies, team Islay scores 42,733. I’m benchmarking it against the 45,796 of team Guinness, as I agree with FD, that finding 17 starting cows who can consistently score 60 might be a stretch.
Now for the second part of my mids modification. Just as FD has allowed for rookies to score about 37 ppg above their starting price, I allow my mids to be over-achievers too – it’s not unreasonable to assume that we will pick our mids primarily on the basis that we think they have value. At 325K they are priced at 59ppg (using FD’s 2018 magic number).
In my model, I can nominate the number of bonus pts to allocate to my mid-pricers. Instead of nominally scoring 59 ppg game right thru the season I can flex it to be “x” pts higher. It turns out that if my mid-pricers score at a premium of 11 ppg (turn out to be 11 ppg under-valued) team Islay is line ball with team Guinness.
I don’t think this would be out of the question. It’s only modelling after all and incomplete modelling at that, but worth a thought and maybe one more season of MPM.
Can you put up a mock team please. Just state at the start in capitals. NOT A REAL team.
Is this what you were looking for TOF?
Sample (NOT REAL) Islay team..
Guns Max GAWN 751,400
Brodie GRUNDY 648,200
Marcus BONTEMPELLI 623,900
Patrick DANGERFIELD 611,900
Steele SIDEBOTTOM 588,000
Rory LAIRD 564,800
Lachie WHITFIELD 561,600
Josh DUNKLEY 560,200
Mid-P Connor ROZEE 377,200
Tom GREEN 351,400
Jye CALDWELL 348,600
Dyson HEPPELL 319,100
Ryan BURTON 318,800
Brayden SIER 313,800
Wayne MILERA 312,200
Lance FRANKLIN 312,000
Jackson HATELY 310,300
Brandon STARCEVICH 307,300
Ben BROWN 260,300
Joe DANIHER 233,300
Rooks Will PHILLIPS 198,300
Will KELLY 135,400
Will GOULD 123,900
Nakia COCKATOO 123,900
Jacob WEHR 117,300
Thomas HIGHMORE 117,300
Connor DOWNIE 117,300
James ROWE 117,300
Alex DAVIES 102,400
Josh TREACY 102,400
9,929,800
Yes this is great!(for a reference)
I look at these prices, ignoring the names, don’t like it 1 bit.
These players are at this price for a reason.
And they will define your season. Most likely poorly.
I think something that has been lost is the changing of the game and analytics.
I honestly don’t believe mpm type of strategies are viable at all.
A few seasons ago maby, due to not so much in depth study of players and point scoring for certain rolls.
Mid pricers don’t score enough or make enough money to realistically select in a successful team. Yes there are outliers, but so few and far between the successful ones and the duds that you need to spend your money on as many guaranteed points that you can. Hence 12-14 premiums(points), heaps of rookies (cash). Then gamble your left over funds on a break out.
Couldn’t agree more TOF but it is hard to ignore a few namely ROWELL and WALSH
Posted on behalf of warewolves who was having trouble putting it up and got in touch with me.
Thanks for your feedback TOF – you have touched on the key point with your comment “These players are at this price for a reason” For non-Rookies the reason is primarily their average score last season and perhaps from the number of games last season.
Father Dougal’s article and my follow-up are examining the perennial SC issue around our starting team structures. Do we stick to Guns & Rookies (G&R) or is there a place to add Mid-Pricers to the mix (MPM). FD’s excellent model is based on the scoring rules within SC and a series of quite reasonable assumptions. Although we could add more refined assumptions and rules, it is a reasonable model to attack the structure question from a theoretical (mathematical) perspective. (FD – I hope you agree with this assertion)
It’s clear that G&R is the favoured approach of SCT correspondents. FD’s modelling assumes that guns continue to score in line with their original prices and that starting rookies will consistently score at 60ppg – about 37ppg above what their 125K price would represent. So the more rookies the more leverage these bonus points generate, especially when the bench rookies are traded and those points move on to the field. So of FD’s four options, the G&R approaches prevailed – because they had the most value in their starting line-ups.
I have just made the one addition to FD’s model. I have broken the non-Rookies into 2 categories – Guns which behave as before and Mid-Pricers that are able to score at “x” ppg above their starting price. It is intuitively clear and the model demonstrates that an MPM structure can (theoretically!) match the G&R models depending on the value we set for the “x” ppg variable.
So still in the modelling world, in my Islay example I had 12 x 325K mid-pricers or 12 priced at about 60 ppg. If that group could score at 11 ppg higher that would be enough to match the G&R team even tho it had more rookies scoring a 37ppg premium. In the model MPM gathers on-field bonus points faster.
Now if we try to transition from the modelling to real SC. I think the (admittedly not too complex) models, show we need to look at any players that we consider to be under-priced. The models (and SC) reward cash generation – it shouldn’t matter where the cash comes from.
We can confidently select 125K rookies and expect them to quickly earn money if they have decent JS. With most mid-pricers, it’s much less certain, but there must be some amongst the nearly 500 players priced between 210-450K. For a start we can look at players whose price is down – for a good reason – eg. because of injury and there may possibly be more value if there is a reduced-game discount. Then there will some break-out contenders.
I may be kicking against the wind here, but it looks to me that going for on-field underpriced players is a valid strategy. And let’s remember that it’s not totally black and white, even a team that’s heavy with Mid-Pricers – like my sample team – is likely to have at least 10 basement-priced rookies.
Hey werewolves!
Something to take into consideration.
Let’s FOR EXAMPLE take 6-10 mid pricers.
In a week, most likely only 1 will go 100-140+.
1-2 will go -60.
The rest go 60-80.
And repeat this for every week. You never get them all scoring 90+ in one week.
Now you can say the same of rookies, but even if the do score a 50 they make money, whilst the mid pricers lose money.
If a mid pricer scores a 120+ you start thinking he’ll do it again so you keep them. Waiting for them to back it up, but they don’t they just drop further in price but now you don’t want to trade them out because you know that if you do they will post that 120 again.
Rookies it doesn’t matter, you know you have to trade them asap even if they do score a 100 because it probably won’t happen again.
Where as with the mid pricers you hold them to long, not knowing when the time to trade them out is.
So the net result is everyone who had gnr has traded their rookies to premiums, whilst all the people who had multiple mid pricers are still hanging onto them, expecting them to put up that next good score which doesn’t arrive. And now their not making money, infact losing money.
To me, G & R is just like 1st and 4th and mid prices as 2nd and 3rd. Is that why Duet betting was introduced………
I think people need to make a read each season which is best. Alot of the good forwards last year started as midpricers the year before it wasn’t the case.
I agree Gra Pol. I guess I am trying to show that G&R isn’t necessarily the way to go. There probably isn’t any best method as such – the best result will come from selecting the structure which has the most inherent value.
To recap from the models I have been talking about. FD’s preferred model Guinness team looked like this at the start of the season. – 14 Rookies (cows) + 16 Guns
The value comes from the cows that score on average at 60g – so you’re getting 60ppg but only paying for 23ppg. The Guns score in line with their starting price.
My model Islay team starts out like this. – 10 Rookies (cows) @ 125K + 12 Mid-Pricers @ 325K + 8 Guns
Again my cows score on average at 60g & my Guns score in line with their starting price. Both models assume the same pattern of cow upgrades (but one team has 10 rather than 14 trades). But team Islay allows for inherent value in the non-cows – specifically in the Mids.
Based on their price these Mids would score at 60ppg – on that basis they have no inherent “value” and team Islay comes in well behind team Guinness. But if we allow them to score at around 71ppg the rival models are on a par.
These are very simplified models of SC but are enough to maintain my initial thought that the G&R approach isn’t necessarily the best starting structure. Broadly speaking this is the logic behind G&R – Rookies are (almost) definitely underpriced and generate the most cash. So get lots of rookies (around 14-15) and then spend the rest of the budget on proven guns, even though they have negligible upside. In an analogy to the world of finance – you’d be investing about $1.75M in high growth assets and about $8.25M in defensive assets.
If you start introducing Mid-Pricers, you obviously have to cut back on the Rookies and the Guns, but lets just assume that you can pick mids with some upside – that’s ultimately the real challenge – but its not an outlandish assumption. Then we could say team Islay has an investment profile of about $1.25M in high growth assets, about $4M in lower growth assets and about $4.75M in defensive assets.
It seems to me that the best end result is going to depend upon the relative success of those lower growth assets.
Warewolve, this is an article detailing the best team you could have started with in 2019 in hindsight (From mid year). Doesn’t perfectly map onto your midpricer idea but it’s definitely not a guns and rookie team. Just thought you might find it interest mate.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/supercoach-news/how-many-of-these-supercoach-studs-did-you-start-with/news-story/a3f26c67e263736507547a64271d749c
Thanks GP – I’ve seen a few of those articles over recent years – and like this one they don’t follow the G&R playbook. The structure in that article has about 9 mid-pricers! – but to be fair, a mid-season check-point would tend to favour them somewhat.
I have been doing a little analysis of recent years to see if that sheds any light on the issue. In particular I’ve been looking at how well the Rookies (up to $200K starting salaries) perform in the first part of the season.
Last year – with Covid creating a huge gap between rounds 1 & 2 – may not be the best yardstick but G&R teams would have been battling to keep up. I can only find three rookies who played all games up to round 9 and only two starting rookies had generated over $150K at that point.
2019 however was a much more fruitful year for rookies. In the first instance, there were quite a lot more starting rookies (30 – up from 22 in 2020) and I have 11 of them generating healthy gains over $150K after 9 games.
Thanks GP – I’ve seen a few of those articles over recent years – and like this one they don’t follow the G&R playbook. The structure in that article has about 9 mid-pricers! – but to be fair, a mid-season check-point would tend to favour them somewhat.
I have been doing a little analysis of recent years to see if that sheds any light on the issue. In particular I’ve been looking at how well the Rookies (up to $200K starting salaries) perform in the first part of the season.
Last year – with Covid creating a huge gap between rounds 1 & 2 – may not be the best yardstick but G&R teams would have been battling to keep up. I can only find three rookies who played all games up to round 9 and only two starting rookies had generated over $150K at that point.
2019 however was a much more fruitful year for rookies. In the first instance, there were quite a lot more starting rookies (30 – up from 22 in 2020) and I have 11 of them generating healthy gains over $150K after 9 games.
Lloyd laird Willems Milera Wehr Highmore bench Bianco Gould
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Sidebottom Dunkley Martin Campbell Macrae Cockatoo Bench Rowe Laurie 44.2k left over