2021 Defender Projections Group 1

Hi Everybody!

So, I’m doing them again. I’m being a little more selective in who I do as some players I have nothing to say about and so don’t want to spend time on.  If someone has score in the mid 80s a lot odds are they will again, and if they break out I won’t see it coming because they have score in the mid 80s a lot.

TLA stands for True Level of Ability. In theory that is how good they really are trying to take luck out of their results. In practice it is me making numbers up.  Yes, making them up. Unlike the rest of the things I write, where I try and use math and calculate things, this is pulled from an orifice. Hopefully useful anyway.

 

Jake Lloyd

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	18	58.4	20
2015	20	69.3	21
2016	22	84.6	22	85
2017	21	87.3	23	85
2018	22	112	24	110
2019	22	108.9	25	110
2020	17	122.2	26	110
		110-120		110

 

I have a hard time thinking he can replicate his performance last year. Not only because it is so good and iI expect a regression to the mean, but it was in the Bizzaro Season and he could have had an extra 10 points from those circumstances, that are no longer in effect. It is very hard to imagine he will improve his average, and that means he is at best worth what he costs. Odds are he is worth less than he costs. I feel like getting him in would be an emotional decision rather than a thinking-brain decision.  His having the best average in defense does not make overpaying worth it. People tend to overvalue a player having had the best average on a line the previous year. (Lachie Whitfield, cough cough.)  Players with low upsides and a downside are not what we should be looking for.   

Zachary Williams

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	11	58.7	18
2014	8	64.9	19
2015	12	69.6	20
2016	20	88.2	21	88
2017	20	93.9	22	93
2018	0		23	96
2019	20	101.6	24	99
2020	11	85.4	25	99
		96-105		99

More injury prone than I like. Odds are he is still about the same player ability wise, and I have to assume he didn’t move clubs to not play. I expect him to bounce back, but he isn’t a huge bargain and there’s that injury risk. He is not likely to underperform his price, so that’s good. Really comes down to your risk tolerance because of his dodgy body, 

Caleb Daniel

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	9	54.7	18
2016	20	79	19	78
2017	20	79.3	20	78
2018	20	77.1	21	78
2019	17	99.1	22	100
2020	17	101.5	23	100
		98-106		100

I keep forgetting he is only 24. I think he is one of the players most likely to do just what we expect, or maybe a bit better. He sure does well in his new role down back. If the Dogs do well and he benefits from normal length quarters, I can see him having a surprise growth year.  

Thomas Stewart

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	18	67.4	23
2018	21	85.3	24	85
2019	22	98.2	25	98
2020	14	100.1	26	100
		97-103		100

While not as much a lock as Daniel, I think he is also likely to perform very close to his cost. Since he is 27, having a breakout year is not that likely, but he has gotten better every year so far. He did miss some games last season. 

 

Rory Laird

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	18	69.8	19
2014	16	59.1	20
2015	21	93.8	21
2016	17	96.8	22
2017	22	100.2	23	104
2018	20	108.2	24	104
2019	22	96.8	25	104
2020	17	105	26	104
		98-108		104

A lot more variation with his scores, which means hsi near his 105 average probably won’t go up a lot, although unlike many defenders with a long history, he has a big chance of getting that fabled “More Midfield Time.”  Getting that would change his upside a lot, and push my projections up at least 5 points at the top and if he turns into a full time mid I wouldn’t be shocked at a 155 average.  Breakout candidate at 27? Yup, indeed.   

Nic Newman

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	18	82.7	24	85
2018	10	72.6	25	90
2019	20	96.7	26	95
2020	2	23.5	27	95
		90-100		93

I think he could go right back to a 95ish average if he recovers well from his injury. We already know he had that ability to do that. I feel like this is just a more than normal ballpark estimate since his health and playing time are so unknown. 

Luke Ryan

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	11	76.8	20
2018	20	90.2	21	90
2019	18	95.8	22	95
2020	17	107.3	23	105
		102-112		105

I think his new level is real and he will hover around it, and since he is only 24 maybe even pump it up again. Once again the short quarters might have had an effect that will be removed this year and I have no idea if that will happen. But talent wise that growth pattern is very encouraging even if you take some points off his last season’s average. 

 

Jack Crisp

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	10	51.5	18
2013	2	44	19
2014	6	85.7	20	86
2015	22	89.4	21	90
2016	22	86	22	90
2017	22	82.8	23	90
2018	22	95.8	24	95
2019	22	88.9	25	95
2020	17	99.2	26	95
		92-102		95

Seems to have settled into a high 80 to high 90s range. His career high coming last season may or may not be a fluke. I feel like he is more likely to go down than up, unless he starts playing in the mids. 

 

Sam Docherty

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	13	52.8	19
2014	16	76.8	20	75
2015	19	87.7	21	85
2016	22	108.7	22	105
2017	22	114.7	23	110
2018	0		24	105
2019	0		25	100
2020	16	92.3	26
		90-105		97

When I did Tom Mitchell last year I looked at Nat Fyfe and his comeback from severe injury. Took more than one year to make it all the way back. Doc is just 27 and had a successful return last season. His prior level is way high and he came back and did well. I don’t see him doing a lot worse and I can imagine him doing a lot better. It really depends on how the Blues defense shakes out and his role. I hadn’t been thinking about him but now I feel like he at least needs a think. There are too many unknowns for a more accurate projection, but I’ll be surprised if he goes backwards. 

 

Thanks for reading!

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