2021 Forward Projections Group 1

Hi Everybody!

Same warnings as always, this is me making up numbers based on semi-educated guess. But hopefully useful anyways. 

Josh Dunkley

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2016	13	69.6	19
2017	7	60	20
2018	19	95.1	21	95
2019	22	116.5	22	116
2020	11	104.3	23	116
		102-120+		116

My top choice for midfield last year got hurt and had a huge drop off. While the who “circumstances” situation with Doggies is subject to change week to week, I think it pretty safe to say he is priced at his floor. I love young players pierced well below a level they have actually achieved in the past. Since the Dogs probably want to keep him happy so he stays, and that means midfield time, I am guessing he will get midfield time., If I am wrong, then I’ll have paid about what he’ll deliver, and if I am very right he could go at 125. Strongest buy. Of course I said that last year….

Patrick Dangerfield

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2008	2	19.5
2009	19	62.6	18
2010	19	69.9	19
2011	22	80.3	20
2012	22	118.9	21
2013	20	112.9	22
2014	22	105.6	23
2015	21	119.9	24	123
2016	22	131.8	25	130
2017	21	136.4	26	130
2018	21	121.7	27	125
2019	21	115.2	28	120
2020	17	113.9	29	115
		109-117		110

He is aging like a gun, with a slow drop off rather than a splat from a beer truck. His real level is probably getting a bit lower every year now, but that does mean he couldn;t throw up a higher average than last season. Pendles did that last year out of nowhere after all. I have a suspicion, probably based on the Cats situation, that he will do a bit better than last year but I’m not thinking enough more that he’s a must have from that. For one thing, he might turn in Dusty and save his best for when it counts, and sort of cruise when the game is won. I sure won’t advise against him! 

 

Steele Sidebottom

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2009	8	65.4	18
2010	21	84.4	19
2011	22	83.5	20
2012	21	106.2	21	100
2013	22	103	22	100
2014	19	113.2	23	100
2015	16	104.2	24	100
2016	20	106.2	25	100
2017	22	96	26	100
2018	22	101.6	27	100
2019	21	94.3	28	100
2020	9	109.4	29	100
		95-105		100

He’s been pretty much the same player his whole career, and so while he is 30 now I suspect he is still that player. As it happens, last year he scored about that top of that player’s range, and if he goes to the middle or bottom of that player’s range, you have paid overs for him. Add that to his missing games last season and being 30, and it’s a big pass from me. 

 

Dayne Zorko

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	16	100	22
2013	22	82.9	23
2014	21	99	24	101
2015	22	100.6	25	103
2016	20	109	26	105
2017	21	110.8	27	105
2018	22	95.8	28	103
2019	22	106.6	29	102
2020	15	97.9	30	100
		94-100		95

There is a beer truck heading right towards him. At 31, I don’t think I would bet on him doing much better than last season and there is a good chance he does worse. He might dodge it this year but why risk it? 

 

Shai Bolton

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	6	49	18
2018	3	30	19
2019	16	69.8	20	70
2020	15	86.1	21	85
		85-100		92

I shouldn’t be trying to predict him because of low data, but for some reason I am. I feel like he i a classic could break out or could stay the same, with the most likely result being some improvement. 

Dustin Martin

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2010	21	77.9	18
2011	22	98.9	19
2012	20	88.5	20
2013	22	101.8	21	100
2014	21	99.5	22	103
2015	22	105.5	23	104
2016	22	108.1	24	105
2017	22	119.3	25	106
2018	21	103.9	26	105
2019	20	100	27	104
2020	16	100.8	28	103
		98-105		102

So at 29 Dusty has established he is a low 100s guy who had one incredible season. With his getting older he looks like he could go under 100 any time now. He is a better choice than Zorko, but that is damning with faint praise. He’s pretty much a security blanket pick now, more for making owners feel safe than being a good pick based on performance. 

 

Isaac Heeney

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	12	70	18
2016	20	79.7	19
2017	18	97.6	20	95
2018	21	97.5	21	96
2019	22	94	22	97
2020	6	94	23	97
		90-100		97

Right, he is just 24. Could surprise, if he is healthy and in the mids. Both of those seem not likely as far as I know. If he gets a job in the mids and is healthy I would jump right on him. To make him temping, he is priced at 85, which…argh, is really tempting. He could sooo easily average 95 and be a nice discount pickup and there is a not small chance he goes 100+ and big time bargain. Argh, I’m talking myself into him. If healthy is there any chance he goes for less than 85? Not really…..

Jeremy Cameron

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	16	62.4	18
2013	21	72.7	19
2014	14	56.5	20
2015	22	74.5	21
2016	18	71	22
2017	18	89.1	23	86
2018	16	81.2	24	88
2019	20	92.8	25	88
2020	21	72.2	26	88
		80-92		88

In theory he is underpriced. In theory. Maybe he is. I’d still be way scared of picking him where there are so many non-key forward options. 

 

Thanks for reading!

 

 

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