2021 Midfield Projections Group 3

2021 Midfield Projections Group 3

Something about these numbers coming from an orifice somewhere. Use at your own risk

Christian Petracca

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2016	17	72.7	20
2017	22	78.8	21	80
2018	21	81.5	22	80
2019	22	81.3	23	80
2020	17	117.5	24	112
		107-119		112

Well, you don;t see a 35 point jump up from 81 to 117 every day. And when you do it is normally a ruck. Rucks do that. The Footballer formerly known as Pet-trappa sure produced for last year’s owners. Sadly It feels way likely that some of that jump was due to scaling in the short quarters. Also, when someone not a ruck makes a jump like that, regression is likely to follow. He is for sure ceiling priced and might even be on the roof. Not a good choice for this season. Macrea, Oliver, Bont, and Merrett all look like better options.

Jarryd Lyons

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	3	31.7	19
2013	9	63.9	20
2014	10	60	21
2015	12	44.8	22
2016	18	90.2	23	90
2017	18	89.8	24	90
2018	19	92.5	25	95
2019	22	98.6	26	100
2020	17	112.5	27	105
		105-115		105

At best accurately priced,at 28 he could hold onto those gains, although I think it most likely he drops a bit. He did jump decently from last season which was itself a jump, so another jump at 28 is not crazy talk.

Tom Mitchell

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	12	86.2	19
2014	6	83.8	20
2015	17	104.5	21	105
2016	22	104	22	110
2017	22	118.9	23	120
2018	22	129.1	24	130
2019	0	0	25	130
2020	17	101.3	26	100
		105-120		110
				120

I wrote about Fyfe coming back from a broken leg went and how that might map to Titich last year. https://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/ He actualyl came back worse than I projected based on Fyfe’s recovery. I still expect him to improve from last season but not all the way to 129. My guess is right around 111, but I would not be at all surprised if he is a bit off downside or 10 points off on the upside. In other words, he’s floor priced and if/when unhurt probably a good option.

Hugh McCluggage

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	18	54.2	18
2018	22	76.8	19
2019	21	94	20	95
2020	17	101.5	21	100
		100-110		105

At 22 he could do anything from twenty more to zero more. Since he first broke 100 at 21, I think a modest gain is most likely.

Andrew Brayshaw

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2018	17	60.5	18
2019	22	70.5	19
2020	17	101.3	20	100
		100-112		105

At 21, he’s like McCluggage a year sooner, which gives him more upside. Not tons more but more. Sort of a 10-20 rather than a 5-20. He is to some degree at the mercy of who else is in the mids with him for how much. Usually I don’t do players with just 3 seasons of data, but he was requested, so I am taking a shot. Now I am wondering if there is any significance to 100 (points) by 20 (years of age)……

Jy Simpkin

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	13	46.7	19
2018	22	66	20
2019	21	70.5	21
2020	17	93	22	95
		95-110		100

The data alone is less optimistic than I am, since I know he was hurt a lot and did well in matches when not hurt. So floor priced I think. Had him in my team and now I am wondering why I removed him. Have to at least look again. He is 23, which is the mig breakout year. Well for Super premos, I really should look for more normal breaking out.

Angus Brayshaw

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	21	65.5	19
2016	10	64.9	20
2017	5	72	21
2018	19	97.1	22	85
2019	22	83.3	23	85
2020	14	81	24	85
		80-90		85

He is 25 and dropped average every year since 2018. Not good. Very little chance he is a high enough discount to live with at M8, and barring a miracle he won;t be a top,10, 12, really 20, midfielder. Just no.

Travis Boak

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2007	11	63.1	18
2008	17	84.2	19
2009	18	82.8	20
2010	20	96.8	21
2011	21	90.4	22
2012	18	90	23
2013	21	106.6	24	106
2014	21	105.7	25	106
2015	22	99.1	26	106
2016	22	91.3	27	106
2017	21	85.1	28	106
2018	22	88	29	106
2019	21	107.2	30	106
2020	17	109.9	31	106
		98-106		102