2021 Midfield Projections Group 3

Written by Father Dougal on March 12 2021

2021 Midfield Projections Group 3

 

Something about these numbers coming from an orifice somewhere. Use at your own risk

 

Christian Petracca

Year Games Average Age TLA
2016 17 72.7 20
2017 22 78.8 21 80
2018 21 81.5 22 80
2019 22 81.3 23 80
2020 17 117.5 24 112
107-119 112

Well, you don;t see a 35 point jump up from 81 to 117 every day. And when you do it is normally a ruck. Rucks do that. The Footballer formerly known as Pet-trappa sure produced for last year’s owners. Sadly It feels way likely that some of that jump was due to scaling in the short quarters. Also, when someone not a ruck makes a jump like that, regression is likely to follow. He is for sure ceiling priced and might even be on the roof. Not a good choice for this season. Macrea, Oliver, Bont, and Merrett all look like better options. 

 

Jarryd Lyons

Year Games Average Age TLA
2012 3 31.7 19
2013 9 63.9 20
2014 10 60 21
2015 12 44.8 22
2016 18 90.2 23 90
2017 18 89.8 24 90
2018 19 92.5 25 95
2019 22 98.6 26 100
2020 17 112.5 27 105
105-115 105

At best accurately priced,at 28  he could hold onto those gains, although I think it most likely he drops a bit. He did jump decently from last season which was itself a jump, so another jump at 28 is not crazy talk. 

 

Tom Mitchell

Year Games Average Age TLA
2013 12 86.2 19
2014 6 83.8 20
2015 17 104.5 21 105
2016 22 104 22 110
2017 22 118.9 23 120
2018 22 129.1 24 130
2019 0 0 25 130
2020 17 101.3 26 100
105-120 110
120

I wrote about Fyfe coming back from a broken leg went and how that might map to Titich last year.  https://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/  He actualyl came back worse than I projected based on Fyfe’s recovery.  I still expect him to improve from last season but not all the way to 129. My guess is right around 111, but I would not be at all surprised if he is a bit off downside or 10 points off on the upside. In other words, he’s floor priced and if/when unhurt probably a good option. 

 

Hugh McCluggage

Year Games Average Age TLA
2017 18 54.2 18
2018 22 76.8 19
2019 21 94 20 95
2020 17 101.5 21 100
100-110 105

At 22 he could do anything from twenty more to zero more. Since he first broke 100 at 21, I think a modest gain is most likely. 

 

Andrew Brayshaw

Year Games Average Age TLA
2018 17 60.5 18
2019 22 70.5 19
2020 17 101.3 20 100
100-112 105

At 21, he’s like McCluggage a year sooner, which gives him more upside. Not tons more but more. Sort of a 10-20 rather than a 5-20. He is to some degree at the mercy of who else is in the mids with him for how much.  Usually I don’t do players with just 3 seasons of data, but he was requested, so I am taking a shot.  Now I am wondering if there is any significance to 100 (points) by 20 (years of age)……

 

Jy Simpkin

Year Games Average Age TLA
2017 13 46.7 19
2018 22 66 20
2019 21 70.5 21
2020 17 93 22 95
95-110 100

The data alone is less optimistic than I am, since I know he was hurt a lot and did well in matches when not hurt. So floor priced I think. Had him in my team and now I am wondering why I removed him. Have to at least look again. He is 23, which is the mig breakout year. Well for Super premos, I really should look for more normal breaking out. 

 

Angus Brayshaw

Year Games Average Age TLA
2015 21 65.5 19
2016 10 64.9 20
2017 5 72 21
2018 19 97.1 22 85
2019 22 83.3 23 85
2020 14 81 24 85
80-90 85

He is 25 and dropped average every year since 2018. Not good. Very little chance he is a high enough discount to live with at M8, and barring a miracle he won;t be a top,10, 12, really 20, midfielder.  Just no. 

 

Travis Boak

Year Games Average Age TLA
2007 11 63.1 18
2008 17 84.2 19
2009 18 82.8 20
2010 20 96.8 21
2011 21 90.4 22
2012 18 90 23
2013 21 106.6 24 106
2014 21 105.7 25 106
2015 22 99.1 26 106
2016 22 91.3 27 106
2017 21 85.1 28 106
2018 22 88 29 106
2019 21 107.2 30 106
2020 17 109.9 31 106
98-106 102

He is 32 and just had a career high average. 

How is he priced?

(Points mic at crowd)  He is ceiling priced

Should you buy him?

(Points mic at crowd)  No way!

 

 

Thanks for reading

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17 thoughts on “2021 Midfield Projections Group 3”

  1. I’m doubtful of Lyons after seeing Zac Bailey get more time in the midfield during his preseason match. Lyons got less time in the mid and then scored 49 SC points, but did have 22 disposals.
    In terms of clearances Lyons had 1, Bailey had 5.
    Now was this a one off or will it continue to happen throughout the season?

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    1. I think this is a bit of an overreaction. Brisbane were obviously experimenting a little during that game putting different players in the middle. They won’t be doing the same when the real stuff starts, they have premiership aspirations and Lyons is their second best inside mid, they’re not gonna waste him on a wing or across half back.

      When the season starts and the games matter, expect Lyons to be doing his best work in the grunt of the midfield.

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  2. Your position on Petracca is quite different to mine. After playing predominantly forward until last year Petracca had a big preseason and got himself into the Dees midfield last season and proved he was one of the more damaging players in the competition. He may be overpriced, definitely not 80 overpriced! I’m backing him in for 110.

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    1. I was very confused by your comment until I saw I had his TLA wrong. My projection of 107-119 is right, I think his TLA is more like 112 . in the middle of his projection. Thanks for pointing that out

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  3. Thanks for doing Andy brayshaw father. Unfortunately it still has me on the fence. Rowell holds him out for the M5 spot for now .

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    1. Yes, I was about to say!

      And, from memory FD’s projection was only 0.1 off his final average based on Fyfe’s recovery!

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