Here is a summary of all the relevant break-evens prior to Round 6. The break-even or BE is the score that a player will need to achieve in their next game in order to hold their current value. A low BE generally indicates that a player has recently performed above expectations, while a high break-even is a flag for an imminent price drop (and potentially good buying!).
For brevity, I’ve only included players with ‘significant ownership’, plus a few speculators including most of the prominent new DPPs. If there’s anyone missing that you’d like a number for, let me know in the comments.
(Players marked with an asterisk have played two games and are “on the bubble”)
DEFENDERS
Premiums
Lachie ASH ($512,500): 39
Nasiah WANGANEEN-MILERA ($567,500): 83
Harry SHEEZEL ($570,000): 95
Max HOLMES ($542,400): 105
Jordan CLARK ($547,700): 122
Lachie WHITFIELD ($598,700): 124
Luke RYAN ($527,700): 129
Bailey DALE ($516,800): 131
Rory LAIRD ($511,500): 149
Dan HOUSTON ($562,900): 152
Jack SINCLAIR ($642,200): 158
Dayne ZORKO ($591,700): 177
Midpricers
Harry PERRYMAN ($389,200): 70
Jayden SHORT ($437,500): 72
Joel FREIJAH ($358,600): 115
Matt ROBERTS ($470,200): 125
Tom STEWART ($483,500): 162
Rookies
Sandy BROOK* ($99,100): -60
Zach REID ($220,700): -60
Riley BICE ($286,100): -42
Connor O’SULLIVAN ($295,400): -31
Saad EL-HAWLI* ($119,900): -11
Luke TRAINOR ($259,500): -7
Jaxon PRIOR ($235,500): 9
Finn O’SULLIVAN ($221,200): 19
Conor STONE ($172,600): 35
Tobie TRAVAGLIA ($195,400): 44
MIDFIELDERS
Premiums
Will ASHCROFT ($538,200): 80
Andrew BRAYSHAW ($624,000): 83
Caleb SERONG ($589,200): 107
Lachie NEALE ($553,800): 111
Nick DAICOS ($584,800): 121
Noah ANDERSON ($567,200): 124
Patrick CRIPPS ($505,400): 132
Jordan DAWSON ($532,700): 134
Matt ROWELL ($559,100): 134
Zach MERRETT ($613,600): 137
Josh DUNKLEY ($579,900): 144
Tom LIBERATORE ($589,800): 149
Midpricers
Adam CERRA ($494,100): 79
Connor ROZEE ($498,700): 85
Finn CALLAGHAN ($416,400): 95
Clayton OLIVER ($469,600): 97
Rookies
Tom GROSS* ($113,500): -65
Elijah TSATAS* ($191,200): -14
Clay HALL ($187,100): -8
Ned LONG ($280,600): 28
Harvey LANGFORD ($230,000): 31
Christian MORAES ($201,800): 36
Xavier LINDSAY ($202,000): 64
RUCKS
Archer REID ($219,200): 19
Luke JACKSON ($557,500): 53
Sam DE KONING ($358,400): 65
Max GAWN ($582,000): 81
Tom DE KONING ($576,000): 125
Tristan XERRI ($562,300): 159
FORWARDS
Premiums
Toby GREENE ($501,900): 24
Jason HORNE-FRANCIS ($521,200): 39
Sam DARCY ($526,900): 87
Nic MARTIN ($516,500): 113
Jack MACRAE ($506,700): 133
Izak RANKINE ($515,800): 136
Chad WARNER ($499,400): 163
Midpricers
Bailey SMITH ($458,900): 40
Hugo GARCIA ($303,300): 43
Ryan MARIC ($366,000): 47
Caleb DANIEL ($430,700): 49
Luke PARKER ($400,000): 49
Ryley SANDERS ($369,600): 61
Bailey HUMPHREY ($347,000): 69
Dylan MOORE ($456,100): 87
Christian PETRACCA ($483,200): 101
Jy SIMPKIN ($468,500): 117
Rookies
Caiden CLEARY* ($124,100): -73
Will WHITE ($99,100): -23
Sam POWELL-PEPPER ($272,700): -12
Levi ASHCROFT ($277,400): -11
Sam LALOR ($248,300): -9
Isaac KAKO ($191,700): 15
Isaiah DUDLEY ($136,900): 19
Max HALL ($239,900): 25
Sid DRAPER ($204,000): 25
Corey WARNER ($225,300): 35
Tom LYNCH ($194,600): 45
Murphy REID ($294,900): 45
Jack HENDERSON ($166,900): 55
Daniel CURTIN ($274,600): 57
Sam DAVIDSON ($293,200): 60
Looking at last fwd spot, both will be roughly same price
TU – Target Dyl Moore this week
TD – Target Chad Warner next week
petracca or nick Martin might be better options