Cow Talk R10 –> R11

by

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

 

Why is the Hamster striking a pose?

Is he wearing…hose?

 

Twenty Three, or not Twenty Three, that is the question. 

Whether ’tis nobler in weekly score to suffer

The shoulders and hamstrings of outrageous fortune,

Or to trade away against a sea of troubles

And by ignoring cash generation. To fade—to score,

No more; and by low scores to say we end

The heart-ache and the thousand disappointments

That Supercoach is heir to: ’tis a conundrum

 

Ok, wow, well done! 

 Yes Indeed, I shall now fetch a purse of Pumpkin seeds. 

(Happy squeaks and munching) 

So, this week, rather epic, and not just because of the soliloquy.

Yeah, all those plans? Perhaps a bit disrupted. 

Yup Yup Yup.

So, I feel obliged to talk about that, at least some. 

Even though you have no special insights and there are other people on the site probably better qualified to suggest what to do?

Yeah, because I am going to avoid suggesting specific actions, and stick to pointing out a few things to keep in mind when making decisions. For example, as the Hamster has so eloquently pointed out, we still want to get to 23 premiums. 

Cash generation has been difficult. 

RIght, so while there is a very understandable desire to change everything because of all the injuries, I think that, well, don’t panic. Like ok, we all have to double check the byes. For sure have 18 players for each bye. But, that does not mean giving up on cash generation, because that is still very important, and it does not mean stop spending money wisely and looking for value. 

How about the don’t sideways premiums principle?

Well, long term injuries are the big exception. But, how many of these injuries are really long term? Do we know? A three week injury with a bye in the middle is just two missed weeks. Maybe not worth a trade. A lot depends on who you are bringing in and why. Do you think you can get a much better player for less, or not much more, for someone who wasn’t going to be top in the line anyways? Are you too short on trades to spend any on someone who will be a good enough scorer when they return? 

So, once again, tie down the knee?

Right. So much for the old plan, time for a new plan, which may be same as the old plan. The same premiums are falling, the same cows are ripe, the same cows are ready to bring in. 

But, the speech thing?

Ok, he is very right, that if we are going to get to 23 premiums and complete our teams, we need to plan and think and not just splash the cash now that a few guys are hurt and could be sold for big money. It is very tempting to go on a spending spree when cash appears, or to trade away like we won;t miss those trades later, but ignoring cash generation, both by bad player choices and being short on trades, well, those can end up killing a season, even if that does not become clear until long after the money is spent and the trades are used. 

 

Defenders

Z Reid:  At least one more week

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 119,900
1 45 119,900
2 36 119,900
3 88 119,900
4 163,100
5 104 163,100
6 38 220,700
7 90 264,700
8 102 298,400
9 133 322,700
10 75 382,100
11 79.0 418,700
12 79.0 436,327 17,627 17,627
13 79.0 425,523 -10,804 6,823
14 79.0 419,299 -6,224 599
15 79.0 414,697 -4,602 -4,003
16

 

Trainor:  I would be tempted to hold for another spike score, but it is not wrong to cull him. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 133,500
1 50 133,500
2 24 133,500
3 90 133,500
4 82 156,200
5 80 201,400
6 2 259,500
7 66 264,200
8 82 260,800
9 46 259,500
10 52 277,400
11 57.4 284,100
12 57.4 278,694 -5,406 -5,406
13 57.4 279,729 1,035 -4,371
14
15 57.4 282,879 3,149 -1,221
16 57.4 285,207 2,329 1,107

 

Prior:  At least one more week

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 169,200
1 50 169,200
2 57 169,200
3 78 169,200
4 163,100
5 54 163,100
6 92 235,500
7 43 273,000
8 57 285,500
9 93 296,300
10 69 304,200
11 65.9 321,100
12 65.9 338,056 16,956 16,956
13 65.9 338,627 571 17,527
14 65.9 337,676 -951 16,576
15 65.9 336,973 -703 15,873
16

 

Bice: Want him on field, and very likely has another spike score in him. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 113,500
1 52 113,500
2 96 113,500
3 113,500
4 124 113,500
5 89 203,400
6 79 286,100
7 101 340,400
8 49 370,800
9 71 375,800
10 55 375,300
11 79.6 354,100
12 79.6 352,601 -1,499 -1,499
13 79.6 355,269 2,668 1,169
14
15 79.6 368,082 12,813 13,982
16 79.6 377,558 9,475 23,458

 

Connor O’Sullivan:  Either sell now or sell much later when and if he makes the cash back. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 148,700
1 48 148,700
2 88 148,700
3 77 148,700
4 103 203,900
5 42 268,200
6 54 295,400
7 95 306,400
8 48 310,500
9 49 317,300
10 26 319,300
11 63.0 289,800
12 63.0 275,228 -14,572 -14,572
13 63.0 270,632 -4,596 -19,168
14 63.0 283,568 12,935 -6,232
15 63.0 293,134 9,566 3,334
16

 

Midfielders

 

M Reid:   Stopped the bleeding. No idea what is up with him

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 131,500
1 50 131,500
2 75 131,500
3 106 131,500
4 73 199,100
5 58 258,500
6 82 294,900
7 35 312,000
8 50 308,200
9 36 302,000
10 69 276,500
11 63.4 272,400
12 63.4 275,781 3,381 3,381
13
14 63.4 290,377 14,596 17,977
15 63.4 298,699 8,322 26,299
16 63.4 304,853 6,154 32,453

 

Lindsay:  Looks like one more week and reevaluate. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 158,500
1 86 158,500
2 78 158,500
3 9 158,500
4 193,400
5 48 193,400
6 55 202,000
7 78 198,700
8 56 227,000
9 71 251,700
10 67 276,500
11 60.9 289,600
12 60.9 301,960 12,360 12,360
13 60.9 306,636 4,677 17,036
14 60.9 307,397 761 17,797
15
16 60.9 307,959 562 18,359

 

Moraes:  No idea if he has a job or not now. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 113,500
1 113,500
2 52 113,500
3 94 113,500
4 43 113,500
5 42 166,800
6 30 201,800
7 55 199,900
8 204,100
9 24 204,100
10 68 198,900
11 51.0 211,600
12
13 51.0 219,606 8,006 8,006
14 51.0 237,446 17,840 25,846
15 51.0 243,134 5,688 31,534
16 51.0 247,341 4,206 35,741

 

Lalor:  Probably hold to his bye

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 203,500
1 74 203,500
2 39 203,500
3 45 203,500
4 112 220,759
5 248,300
6 70 248,300
7 46 283,800
8 46 310,700
9 61 301,700
10 79 290,500
11 63.6 296,400
12 63.6 309,049 12,649 18,549
13 63.6 319,530 10,482 29,030
14
15 63.6 320,464 933 29,964
16 63.6 321,154 690 30,654

 

Long:  He’s not really a cow, looks much more like a good midpricer. Probably one of if not the last person to upgrade.  

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 30 200,900
1 113 200,900
2 57 200,900
3 240,000
4 26 240,000
5 114 263,000
6 96 280,600
7 87 311,600
8 94 361,900
9 65 390,100
10 94 397,500
11 77.6 404,600
12 77.6 403,650 -950 -950
13 77.6 408,510 4,860 3,910
14
15 77.6 404,864 -3,646 264
16 77.6 402,168 -2,696 -2,432

 

Gross:  Hold until he has made money. He seems too good to be held down for a long time. Well, he plays for the Eagles, so, maybe they will find a way.  

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 113,500
1 113,500
2 113,500
3 113,500
4 51 113,500
5 82 113,500
6 11 113,500
7 147,500
8 147,500
9 46 147,500
10 42 170,400
11 46.4 169,400
12 46.4 184,603 15,203 15,203
13 46.4 196,022 11,419 26,622
14 46.4 206,409 10,387 37,009
15
16 46.4 214,090 7,681 44,690

 

Rucks

Flynn:   Hold now, nice game. Paid off for his holders. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 261,900
1 87 261,900
2 261,900
3 261,900
4 261,900
5 261,900
6 141 261,900
7 105 261,900
8 53 341,100
9 80 384,900
10 111 389,500
11 96.2 395,000
12 96.2 418,874 23,874 23,874
13 96.2 443,666 24,792 48,666
14 96.2 455,451 11,785 60,451
15
16 96.2 464,166 8,715 69,166

 

Forwards

Hugo Garcia:  Well, without Jack, he might do better. I’d want to see before dumping him. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 245,800
1 54 245,800
2 25 245,800
3 99 245,800
4 54 260,000
5 84 269,800
6 59 303,300
7 21 311,100
8 71 302,600
9 40 290,800
10 60 273,200
11 56.7 277,000
12 56.7 274,018 -2,982 -2,982
13
14 56.7 279,185 5,167 2,185
15 56.7 281,549 2,364 4,549
16 56.7 283,297 1,748 6,297

 

Levi Ashcroft:  I feel like he is too good on field to trade before his bye, but cows are for cash, so, well, use if you need to. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 185,500
1 84 185,500
2 72 185,500
3 36 185,500
4 87 221,700
5 90 249,100
6 89 277,400
7 68 322,500
8 99 347,800
9 77 370,800
10 68 381,800
11 77.0 389,300
12 77.0 385,891 -3,409 -3,409
13 77.0 383,369 -2,521 -5,931
14 77.0 385,478 2,109 -3,822
15 77.0 387,037 1,559 -2,263
16

 

Davidson:  ANyone owning him, well, I expect waiting for another spike score. He has a job, and that’s a big thing now. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 113,500
1 39 113,500
2 72 113,500
3 129 113,500
4 54 189,800
5 61 252,100
6 82 293,200
7 51 303,700
8 46 310,400
9 55 309,000
10 58 295,400
11 64.7 288,000
12
13 64.7 291,423 3,423 3,423
14 64.7 298,236 6,813 10,236
15 64.7 306,232 7,996 18,232
16 64.7 312,145 5,913 24,145

 

Kako: Has a job, has DPP, Has  Job Has DPP, Warm body in the byes, warm body in the byes, but looks like he will never make money. He will some day, but man, he so rarely puts up a score that you want on field. I was expecting to give up on him, but he may be a needed warm body, and he can;t lose too much cash, knock on wood. Another I feel you get rid of now or hold to his bye. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 149,500
1 62 149,500
2 34 149,500
3 62 149,500
4 163,100
5 38 163,100
6 55 191,700
7 49 210,200
8 60 218,300
9 30 234,200
10 32 234,500
11 46.9 226,900
12 46.9 215,862 -11,038 -11,038
13 46.9 215,155 -707 -11,745
14 46.9 221,206 6,050 -5,694
15 46.9 225,680 4,474 -1,220
16

 

Sam PP:  No rush either way now. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 180,500
1 18 180,500
2 83 180,500
3 48 180,500
4 74 199,000
5 101 236,800
6 106 272,700
7 98 325,700
8 66 375,800
9 53 397,700
10 89 389,700
11 73.6 379,300
12
13 73.6 375,670 -3,630 -3,630
14 73.6 382,080 6,410 2,780
15 73.6 380,022 -2,058 722
16 73.6 378,500 -1,522 -800

 

Stone:  Did not play. 

Curtain: Well, warm body, playing, did score much better last week. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 158,600
1 26 158,600
2 82 158,600
3 90 158,600
4 65 204,500
5 42 254,900
6 48 274,600
7 41 271,400
8 73 258,700
9 22 263,200
10 65 254,600
11 55.4 258,400
12 55.4 253,950 -4,450 -4,450
13 55.4 265,404 11,454 7,004
14 55.4 269,636 4,232 11,236
15
16 55.4 272,766 3,130 14,366

 

 

Dodgy Advice:  Connor Simpson and Shai Bolton.  Simpson is as good a cow as we are going to get. Bolton, despite being Shai Bolton, has both short and long term potential, and is very cheap. 

What I tell you three (or more) times is true! Do not overpay for anyone. So many good players with falling or low prices. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

 

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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