Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

This is one of those weeks I am short on time. Also, it is so bleeping hot my choclate bar melted! I am in a mood. What mood? Well, aside from candy withdrawl, I”m baffled by what to do this week. Options!  The obvious challenge is the small number of downgrades and the large number of falling premiums. Hard to get cash for upgrades when no downgrades. A temptation is to go early on cows. I am often willing to do that – for a good enough cow. That can really hurt with bad cows. Also, there is a thing to watch out for. When you bring in a cow early, that means that cow is not availble on time, ’cause he is already in your team. That can lead to going early again. And then again the week after. With the mid-seasion draft, there will, I hope, be some cows worth grabbing, but how fast? Going early may well be the play for some of them, but be really sure you can handle the worst case. Very much a team by team call, and missing some of the cheap guys, assuming you don’t already have them, would be bad.   So, yeah. The whole going early trap is worth knowing about before we step into it.

 

 

 

A thing when looking at the projections. I use averages. One good or bad score will affect the price a lot. Real playes rarely score about the same each week.

 

Defenders

 

Serong:  Came back did good. High BE ths week but then the 39 goes out of his three round average

Serong
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	77	119,900
1	54	119,900
2	48	119,900
3		168,900
4	126	168,900
5	75	225,100
6	48	276,100
7	92	313,300
8	39	325,600
9		318,300
10	76	318,300
11	70.6	324,800
12	70.6	320,196	-4,604	-4,604
13	70.6	330,742	10,546	5,942
14	70.6	336,078	5,336	11,278
15	70.6	339,993	3,915	15,193
16	70.6	342,866	2,873	18,066

 

Jaques:  Did not play

 

Selwood:  Can go anytime, but no rush. Does seem to have a job.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	70	119,900
1	38	119,900
2	61	119,900
3		164,500
4	28	164,500
5	74	177,100
6	69	202,600
7	72	224,700
8	59	260,400
9	69	279,700
10	50	293,400
11	59.0	293,700
12	59.0	294,043	343	343
13	59.0	289,882	-4,161	-3,818
14	59.0	290,801	918	-2,899
15	59.0	291,474	674	-2,226
16	59.0	291,969	494	-1,731

 

Lindsey:   Is actually going up in price still! So many players I would yeet before this guy. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		122,500
1	61	122,500
2		122,500
3	70	122,500
4	46	122,500
5	80	168,400
6	75	210,900
7	132	244,000
8	68	306,500
9	81	346,700
10	96	378,200
11	78.8	385,400
12	78.8	395,647	10,247	10,247
13	78.8	402,185	6,538	16,785
14	78.8	399,383	-2,802	13,983
15	78.8	397,327	-2,056	11,927
16	78.8	395,818	-1,509	10,418

 

Grlj:  Played. Did ok. Not much reason to hold him, easy guy to upgrade from.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		172,000
1	73	172,000
2	43	172,000
3	68	172,000
4	90	208,600
5	59	242,300
6	66	274,600
7	74	297,100
8	34	306,700
9		302,200
10	55	302,200
11	62.4	293,600
12	62.4	282,252	-11,348	-11,348
13	62.4	286,477	4,225	-7,123
14	62.4	292,861	6,385	-739
15	62.4	297,546	4,685	3,946
16	62.4	300,983	3,437	7,383

 

Blamirez:   Seems to be going down hill and down in price. And has the bad Bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		99,100
1	70	99,100
2	79	99,100
3	85	99,100
4	56	176,000
5	79	227,400
6	61	265,000
7		281,600
8	59	281,600
9	60	294,800
10	36	295,600
11	65.0	285,200
12	65.0	280,305	-4,895	-4,895
13	65.0	278,920	-1,385	-6,280
14	65.0	290,699	11,780	5,499
15	65.0	299,342	8,643	14,142
16	65.0	305,684	6,342	20,484

 

Marshal:  Did not play

 

Carrol: Last week I said” Unless you know something I don’t, sell.” What I did not know was he was going to ton up again. Did not see that coming. Has cash to make once more.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	54	119,900
1	59	119,900
2	44	119,900
3	40	159,100
4		180,900
5	76	180,900
6	32	204,100
7	106	215600
8	57	253,300
9	43	272,200
10	105	290,500
11	61.6	303,500
12	61.6	315,177	11,677	11,677
13	61.6	331,952	16,775	28,452
14	61.6	325,111	-6,841	21,611
15	61.6	320,091	-5,020	16,591
16	61.6	316,408	-3,683	12,908

 

Allan:    Did not play

 

Watkins:   If you help him I think keep holding. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		99,100
1	45	99,100
2	74	99,100
3	69	99,100
4	7	156,600
5	17	181,500
6		174,900
7	29	174,900
8		152,100
9	56	152,100
10	33	156,600
11	41.3	166,900
12	41.3	179,934	13,034	13,034
13	41.3	182,990	3,056	16,090
14	41.3	188,873	5,882	21,973
15	41.3	193,189	4,316	26,289
16	41.3	196,356	3,167	29,456

 

Farrow:   Did well! Plays The Tigers and then the Eagles! I’m a holding.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		163,000
1		163,000
2		163,000
3	49	163,000
4	90	163,000
5	102	163,000
6	61	226,800
7	68	278,700
8	53	307,200
9	48	306,100
10	72	299,100
11	67.9	295,600
12	67.9	299,794	4,194	4,194
13	67.9	311,642	11,847	16,042
14	67.9	318,515	6,873	22,915
15	67.9	323,558	5,043	27,958
16	67.9	327,258	3,700	31,658

 

Bond:   Did not play

 

 

 

Midfielders

 

Jagga:   If you still own him I would hold him. Probably until his bye, but so many fallen premiums. If he get forward status will help with DPPs a lot.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	65	119,900
1	113	119,900
2		119,900
3	88	119,900
4	70	206,600
5	53	271,800
6	64	293,700
7	69	298,700
8	70	302,000
9	104	311,500
10	79	335,600
11	77.5	357,700
12	77.5	377,406	19,706	19,706
13	77.5	380,171	2,766	22,471
14	77.5	381,539	1,368	23,839
15	77.5	382,543	1,003	24,843
16	77.5	383,279	736	25,579

 

Ironbar Bassey  Anderson:  With the 20 out of his cycle, he should make cash again. A bit sillly to sell him now.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2		113,500
3		113,500
4		113,500
5	79	113,500
6	64	113,500
7	73	113,500
8	20	179,000
9	60	200,900
10	71	214,900
11	61.2	224,300
12	61.2	249,372	25,072	25,072
13	61.2	268,283	18,911	43,983
14	61.2	277,820	9,537	53,520
15	61.2	284,818	6,998	60,518
16	61.2	289,953	5,135	65,653

 

 

Retschko:  Seems the best of the many Tiger mids we all seem to own. Looks like money on the way, so hold if you can.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1		119,900
2		119,900
3		119,900
4		119,900
5		119,900
6	74	119,900
7	82	119,900
8	56	119,900
9	72	181,700
10	51	225,900
11	67.0	244,600
12	67.0	263,311	18,711	18,711
13	67.0	274,834	11,523	30,234
14	67.0	290,349	15,515	45,749
15	67.0	301,733	11,384	57,133
16	67.0	310,086	8,353	65,486

 

Cumming:  Seems to have had a role change. If he goes at 80 with a good role, he makes good money. If he goes for 40 again, he’s gonna lose a decent chunk of change. While he has not made a lot, we can extract about $100,000 – If we give up on him. I have no idea if we should give up on him.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		176,500
1		176,500
2		176,500
3		176,500
4		176,500
5		176,500
6		176,500
7	80	176,500
8	80	176,500
9	32	176,500
10	40	214,200
11	58.0	224,200
12	58.0	221,868	-2,332	-2,332
13	58.0	231,629	9,761	7,429
14	58.0	246,734	15,105	22,534
15	58.0	257,817	11,083	33,617
16	58.0	265,949	8,132	41,749

 

Burton:  Having paid $99k for him, well, is doing ok. Nice. Not thrilling, but nice. As long as Prince Achmed of Pik-Zahr keeps doing his “thing” to Richmond, I suppose Burton has a shot at keeping his job.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		99,100
1		99,100
2		99,100
3		99,100
4		99,100
5		99,100
6		99,100
7	40	99,100
8	64	99,100
9	32	99,100
10	27	132,700
11	40.8	151,600
12	40.8	155,250	3,650	3,650
13	40.8	161,789	6,539	10,189
14	40.8	172,655	10,865	21,055
15	40.8	180,627	7,972	29,027
16	40.8	186,477	5,850	34,877

 

 

Rucks

MacAndrew:  Oh nice ton!

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119900
1	88	119900
2	81	119900
3	68	119900
4	123	192800
5	83	261200
6	79	313800
7	65	356,900
8	91	363,000
9	84	370,500
10	103	377,600
11	86.5	399,600
12	86.5	413,886	14,286	14,286
13	86.5	425,471	11,585	25,871
14	86.5	426,691	1,220	27,091
15	86.5	427,586	895	27,986
16	86.5	428,243	657	28,643

 

Steen:  Injured, Dang, feel for him.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119900
1		119900
2		119900
3	83	119900
4	41	119900
5	28	119900
6	72	155,700
7	52	176,900
8	47	197,400
9	38	220,600
10	38	222,200
11	49.9	217,200
12	49.9	214,912	-2,288	-2,288
13	49.9	218,472	3,561	1,272
14	49.9	226,325	7,852	9,125
15	49.9	232,086	5,762	14,886
16	49.9	236,314	4,228	19,114

Forwards

 

Phillipou:  Had a nice game. He’s ripe at this point. Not consisant enough to really hold. In the End, he’s made the money we started him to make, if a bit later in the season.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	66	168,400
1	27	168,400
2	42	168,400
3	69	185,400
4		198,100
5	69	198,100
6	40	225,600
7	98	244,700
8	80	271,600
9	58	295,900
10	82	321,200
11	63.1	332,600
12	63.1	333,661	1,061	1,061
13	63.1	336,690	3,029	4,090
14	63.1	330,573	-6,117	-2,027
15	63.1	326,085	-4,488	-6,515
16	63.1	322,791	-3,293	-9,809

 

Lombard:   Had a real spike game. I am sooo jealous of the people who kept the faith. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	69	119900
1	55	119900
2	20	119900
3		153,400
4	56	153,400
5	49	170,700
6	45	181,100
7	49	199,600
8	66	210,100
9	57	225,000
10	90	240,900
11	55.6	270,600
12	55.6	287,948	17,348	17,348
13	55.6	300,059	12,111	29,459
14	55.6	293,767	-6,292	23,167
15	55.6	289,151	-4,617	18,551
16	55.6	285,763	-3,388	15,163

 

Sharp:  Looks to be losing big cash. He has good fixrues, but, ugh.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		156,300
1	76	156,300
2	44	156,300
3	71	156,300
4	75	200,200
5	83	231,200
6	65	271,800
7	84	298,500
8	84	322,200
9	55	339,600
10	49	347,500
11	68.6	337,800
12	68.6	324,019	-13,781	-13,781
13	68.6	319,907	-4,111	-17,893
14	68.6	325,539	5,632	-12,261
15	68.6	329,672	4,132	-8,128
16	68.6	332,704	3,032	-5,096

 

Cook:   He can go any time I think. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,700
1	92	158,700
2	62	158,700
3	80	158,700
4	60	220,900
5	63	251,800
6	98	275,400
7	72	300,800
8	94	324,800
9	88	355,700
10	70	372,900
11	77.9	384,600
12	77.9	386,289	1,689	1,689
13	77.9	383,071	-3,217	-1,529
14	77.9	384,196	1,125	-404
15	77.9	385,022	825	422
16	77.9	385,627	606	1,027

 

Lefau:   Did not play

 

Robey:   I missed that he even existed!  Thanks Brad Scatt for pointing him out. Looks like he end up doing really well! 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1		167,500
2		167,500
3		167,500
4		167,500
5	28	167,500
6	50	167,500
7	25	167,500
8	69	168,800
9	68	187,600
10	91	209,100
11	55.2	253,900
12	55.2	280,798	26,898	26,898
13	55.2	294,872	14,074	40,972
14	55.2	289,388	-5,485	35,488
15	55.2	285,363	-4,024	31,463
16	55.2	282,410	-2,953	28,510

 

 

Dodgy Advice:  

Ugh. I think this is a big round. I can see anything from boosting to doing nothing. Just depends on teams. I think the nig thing is getting players you really want, not someone you are settling for.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!