Analysis & Poll: Crisp vs Short

With the return of Tom Stewart (GEEL, $562 400, 115.5) and the continued, pronounced and dramatic underperformance of Jack Crisp (COLL, $460 100, 98.8) and Jayden Short (RICH, $470 500, 100.0) the luxury trade almost makes itself. To think you all could have joined me with Bailey Dale (WBD, $540 000, 105.6) at the start of the season!

Given the popularity of both Short and Crisp as starting picks, at 43% and 39% respectively, many teams find themselves with an SC Sophie’s Choice of who to sack for Stewart – except here you’d love to off them both!

Poll down below, but here’s some relevant numbers and information to consider before voting:

Jack Crisp (COLL, $460 100, 98.8)

Lauded for his consistency and durability, Crisp was a popular pre-season pick. Typically played a blended MID/DEF role starting, either starting as the highest DEF and coming up to the stoppage or purely playing in the one position. Crisp’s problem this year? Two fold: the emergence of Daicos and Collingwood’s midfield profile. Daicos has recently settled into an exclusive HB role but does a) most of their distribution, b) gets to every non-forward of center stoppage, c) covers the ground like a god and d) has his elite play reading and kicking has him looked to at every opportunity. Crisp has thus been on a CB load of 15~, however the Pies aren’t much of a centre clearance side (ranked #18 in the comp) and instead apply shifting defensive gears and 4 quarters of pressure. Crisp isn’t much of a contested player and the Pies aren’t overpossesing the ball like they did in seasons past; it’s corridor use, slick ball movement, F50 entries and a defensive wall. Additionally, Pendlebury has reprised his role on ball with team high or 2nd CBA loads and Crisp is on the 4th MID CBA load – not good for a largely uncontested player who needs to accumulate high 20s/30 to ton. Crisp’s last 3 are also against 3 of the competition’s best and most restrictive midfields.

Simply put: Daicos is the man, the Pies profile has changed and there’s sweet f*ck all for Crisp to do.

Key Data Points:

• Recent CBAs: 12, 17, 15, 11, 19
• Disposals (Contested): 23 (10), 18 (7), 18 (7), 18 (6), 19 (9)
• Defensive/Forward Half Possession Differentials: 14% +D, 12 % +F, 12% +F, 4% +F, 4% +F
• 5 Round Average: 81.6
• Fixture: Port (H), Dees (H), Swans (A), Blues (H)

On that 3rd/4th MID CBA load, low contested numbers, poor accumulation, fairly balanced possessions differentials, all vaguely in the middle of the ground, only had more than 20 touches once in his last 5, redundant and inconsequential role

Jayden Short (RICH, $470 500, 100.0)

When Short had his first game on ball against West Coast, was everywhere and dropped a 152, I though to myself “F*ck. This is going to Laird all over again. I need to get this punk in”. However, Short’s poor use, lack of presence and further role adjustment has that 152 condemned to the dustbin of history. Over the last two months, he’s often had his CBA load flucuate with single digits lows and he’s been thrown around to outside and half forward roles. However, he’s still had games on close to team high CBAs and, due to the aforementioned poor use, lack of presence and poor CP ratio, he’s also bombed. Often it’s just uncontested ball behind the stoppage with no score involvement, note his lopsided possession differentials. Over the last 5 weeks, he’s had no double digit contested possession games – and that’s including 3 where he’s had CBAs of 17, 23 and 20, most galling being 21 touches on 20 CBAs for TWO contested possessions. The last fortnight seen a returning Cotchin and Sonsie getting a helping of time on ball and what looks to be a permanent injection of Bolton in there as well, dropping Short to single digits. Perhaps most damning, Short had SC’s two softest points and possession leaking match ups in West Coast and North and only 82 and 100.

Key Data Points:

• Recent CBAs: 6, 4, 17, 23, 20
• Disposals (Contested): 15 (5), 24 (7), 20 (7), 22 (7), 21 (2)
• Defensive/Forward Half Possession Differentials: 48% +D, 50% +F, 50% +D, 56% +D, 54% +D
• 5 Round Average: 87.4
• Fixture: Lions (H), Port (A), Hawks (H), Dons (H)

Role volatility, not a constant on ball with stints on the wing and at half forward, midfield acquisition of ball comes behind the stoppage, low CP ratio and no connection with the F50, continues to be hampered by disposal efficiency

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