Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
So the first bye round. Yup, it is here. I’m all good with that. Don’t ask about the next two. There have been injuries.
I don’t really have a lot to add. With CCJ, Reeves and Flynn all around to cover he could be held, and with CCJ, Reeves and NicNat around as replacements he could be replaced, and a lot depends, as always on the exact situation.
I will note that having Gawn, Flynn, and CCJ gives you one ruck with each bye and if you keep CCJ and move him forward it is just one trade to get Grundy back, assuming the cash. But, again, that depends so much on the exact situation that I sure would not suggest it as a general good idea.
Oh, and I have NO idea what I will do. I went from looking ok if a bit stretched in R14 to hosed after the inquires in R11, since getting 18 on the field in both R13 and 14 looks like a challenge. But anyways….
Just how bad is it to have less than 18 playing in a bye round? How much effort is it worth to fix that?
Well, that all depends on who could come in. Just “a donut” isn’t really that meaningful. If you can use a trade to bring in someone who adds 100 points in two rounds, then that is probably worth it, because in addition to the 200 points they will probably be on field instead of a rookie, and be making more points after the byes. If you end up bringing in someone for 100 point one round and they help in the future, well, sure, upgrades. Upgrades good any time.
If you are getting just 100 points? Probably not worth it. That could be one round of 100 or two of 50, still in the end points are points, and just 100 points from a trade is probably low.
I know I was way worried about getting force fed donuts, and realized I was worried more about avoiding donuts than scoring points. Both bye points and long term points. Long term being what really matters. If you bring in someone you do not really want who scores say 95 a round for the rest of the year, but get then for 11 round instead of ten, in place of a player who would have scored 105 over ten, you are 5 points behind.
The byes and fear of donuts can lead us away from a focus on points and good team building. IF the beset moves overall mean eating a zero somewhere, they just eat it and move on, with more points overall.
Lachie Young: Not sure what happened to him, but the only thing we can do now is say goodbye as he heads off to Moo-ron Mountain.
Jordan Butts: Don’t let the door hit you on the butt on your way out next round. Or this round even. Could have been a lot worse, to be fair. Just so disappointing to finish badly before his bye
Nikolas Cox: Probably going to make a little more before his bye, unlikely to to lose much if any.
Jack Buckley: Can either be traded now, or if you need him to play in R13 & 14, can probably be held without a lot of risk.
Jacob Koschitzke: Last week: Seems to be stable now, although key forward are never that stable really. This week: Oops. If he does not bounce back big he will bleed cash once he starts playing again. Of course if you need him on field, then so what, and odds are he will go big again, or just be a good backup.
Thomas Highmore: Might have been better if he had not played. Has grown so little that he should still make money if he keeps playing. What a pain to own he has been.
Nathan Murphy: Might end up a backup rather than a money maker. Hard for him to make enough cash to be worth selling even with a big score next week. But, we can hope.
Jordan Clark: Did not play.
Changkuoth Jiath: Well, darn. At this point he has bled down near as much as he will, and will be stable at that level until he has some good games. (No Jinx!) A reason to hold in addition to needing him for R13 & 14. I’m interested in how Cumming stayed at his level and Jiath did not. Probably because Cumming is 22 and Jiath is 21…no, maybe not that. Huh.
Sam Berry: Was doing great until he was concussed and was subbed out. There is little point to holding him now, unless you really need player R13. Assuming he is back then.
James Jordan: Bounced back! Seems to have topped out, so up and down with his scores, but hopefully not by too much. Down I mean.
Tom Powell: Another poor score has him going backwards. If you need him cover R13 & 14, well, not a lot left to lose?
Lachie McNeil: Likely to keep dropping for a while. Three rounds post his big score does look like his high point.
Riley Collier-Dawkins: Did not do a lot better v the Crows. The good news is his BE is just 40, so no rush to get him out before his bye.
Ryan Bynes: Very good cash likely before he would go at R14. Appearing to have been the better pick over RCD. Cows, just so much luck in who you get when and when you get rid……
Matt Flynn: Did not do so well in a big loss to the Lions. The 51 is going to really slow his cash generation and makes him easier to trade out. Assuming you can afford to get rid now that Grundy is not available for a while.
Jordan Sweet: That 39 is gonna hurt. Hard to know what to do with him. Could play a lot or off and on.
Robertson: Slowly making money, still has a job.
Warner: Again – Been so consistent I’m willing to say so and curse him.
Scott: Will lose much cash as soon as he plays
Rowe: A bit of a dip in scoring, but still ok to hold for now. Pretty much topped out.
Bergman: We are gathered her today, to lay to rest Bergman’s cash growth potential. His 14 as the injury sub has doomed him. Doom doom doomedy doom. Sell him before he plays again.
Farar: See Bergman. “You let Dougal do a funeral!”
Owies: Still growing
Poulter: Still growing
Jones: Likely to make a bit more before his bye
Madden: Still lots of growth coming
Weightman: Also still lots of growth coming
Atkins: What to do with hi really depends on your team and bye situation
Daniher: Ok, had a bad game. If he is a cow it is time or near time to trade. If you need to keep him, well, keep him.
Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.
Dodgy Advice: This has been getting surprisingly hard some weeks. This week, sadly easy. With the byes and the limited number of cows and constricted choices because of the need to have playing players, going early on rooies is often a thing to do. Bianco? If you need to go early on him you should. Same with CCJ or anyone else. Not that there are lots of someone elses to go early on.
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.
Thanks for reading!
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11 thoughts on “Cow Talk R11 –>12”
Great summation of what we can plan/do/expect next 3 rounds. Invaluable as always.
Is there much difference in growth if a rookie scores 60,80,40,20, compared to if they flat 50,50,50,50?
Very interested into if there is any difference to the cash growth
Using a $123,900 rookie as an example:
50, 50, 50, 50 = $182,125
50 x 8 = $206,710
60, 80, 40, 20 = $187,443
60, 80, 40, 20, 60, 80, 40, 20 = $233,204
A mistake regarding Scott father. His BE is 94 so if he plays and scores 60 he will only lose around 15k, not 44k.
Why the thumbs down? You internet trolls got something against good old arithmetic and religion eh? EH!
It was only one thumbs down, why comment like that? You deserve thumbs down for the second comment.
Thanks! Will fix it. Adding the bye break in caused a ton of errors, not surprised one made it through.
I appreciate people checking and finding errors. No matter how careful I am, it is always possible to fat finger something or miss a step somewhere.
Father I’m tempted to trade the cow like object in Jiath to Lloyd. Just wondering if you knew what the dollar difference per point was?
I.e. do you think its worth a trade?
Am currently lower in the rankings than desired and looking to make up ground. Will only have 11 trades left after this (horror injury season) but desperate to climb the rankings. TIA
If you assume Lloyd goes at 108 the rest of the season, he’s at $5035/point.
If you assume Jiath goes at:
Ave 60 = $6,156/point
Ave 80 = $4,618/point
Ave 100 = $3,694/point
Lloyd’s is a decent price for points now. Not really high or low, maybe a little low. Jiath would be worth the same/point as Lloyd if he scores at an average of 73.4 or more. So from a strictly cost point of view Jiath is doing pretty well. But, I am sure LLoy will average a lot more, so while Jiath might be a late or last upgrade he still looks like he should be upgraded if you have the trades. I may keep him and I will for sure keep him over the Byes, since I am not hurting for R13 and R14 players. Have to see how he looks after R14.