Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

So, the next two weeks we have a lot of tough choices. One common choice is trading out an injured or suspending premo or keeping them. Another is getting a player not as good who will play more rounds. Gonna talk some about both.

Lets say you own Baily Smith. He will be out three rounds. That means he will play 8 of the remaining 11 rounds. If he goes for 110 the rest of the season, that’s 880 points.  Because two of those are bye rounds, there may not be any rookie cover either. We can assume a 50 from someone for the non0bye round. so call it 930 points.

If you bring in someone who averages 102.7 for the rest of the season, that is 1130 points, meaning you are 200 up from the trade.  There are a lot of forwards who can do that. If you bring in someone who goes for 110 that’s 1210 points or a -280 point swing.  Pretty likely worth a trade.

Is it time for the Bugs Bunny lesson? Or is it the Daffy Duck lesson, I’m not sure?

Huh?

From the cartoon where Elmer has to decide to shoot him now or not to shoot him now? 

You mean trade him now v trade him later, when you get home?

Right!

Do we really need to involve guns?

Maybe Steven May punches him now v later when we go out for dinner?

Squeak! 

Um, let’s stick to Elmer Fudd and shotguns. Wait, how did you two get me  onto Elmer Fudd and shotguns!?! There are no toons in Supercoach!

Not even Cody Weightman? He bounces around like one. 

No!

Always take your pumpkin seeds now, that’s what cheek pockets are for!

Gah! Anyways, we are already home and time to move on!

 

There are lots of reasons you might want to delay bringing someone in. If you wait, the person needs to be enough better to cover the points you miss out on.  If you have 11 rounds left, like right now, that means someone who is enough better to cover that missed round.  If the player you are passing on can score 100, that’s 1100 for the rest of the season. To break even you need someone who will average 1100/10 =  110.  If you delay two round that means they would need to average 1100/9 = 122.2  So, right away there is a high bar for waiting. If you are going to get a rookie at say 50 to cover it is not as bad.  That would be 1050/10 = 105 and 1050/9 = 116.7. Much more possibly if you are talking just one round, but still pretty hard for two.

For the same decision next round, with just 10 left to play? 1000/9 = 111.1 and 950/9 = 105.5.  Harder but not too much harder. if we’re talking two rounds, that’s 1000/8=125 or 950/8 = 118.8. Not likely to work out.

So, trade him in now, don’t wait for net week?

Sigh, yes, pretty much, most of the time yes.

 

Defenders 

 

Noah Answerth: At this point hold to his bye

 

Jake Bowey: At this point hold to his bye

Heath Chapman: Did not play.

Sam De Koning: Is at his bye and ready to sell.

Josh Gibcus:  Did not play

Mitchell Hinge: Well, he has more to make, and is not at that high a value. Tough place to be. Can hold or sell as needed.

Patrick McCartin: If you are going to hold someone because you need another warm body he’s sure the one. I would not hold for cash making but if you need R14 players, he’s a good choice.

Nathan O’Driscoll:  Did not play

Kidean Coleman:  Hold Until his bye.

Midfielders

Jarrod Berry: Unless you really need that extra 23 or so thousand next round, or you really need players playing in R14, I’d make use of his cash this round.

Jye Caldwell: Did not play

Nick Daicos: There is a temptation to hold onto him to try and make a cheap upgrade to Tom Stewart, if you don’t have Stewart, and can handle R14 without trading Daicos out.  Like Berry, that $20k is a bit of a trap, and odds are he’s better used for a player in R14.

Thomson Dow: Did not play

Jason Horne-Francis:  Also very ready to be sold at his bye.

Dylan Stephens: Did not play

Josh Ward:  Did not play

Ben Hobbs:  Is playing and likely to make more money, so…good!

 

Rucks

Hugh Dixon:  Did not play

Tristan Xerri:  Hopefully nobody owns him now. If you do, well, he plays this week.

Sam Hayes: Plays the next two weeks. Anything else matter? Well, yes, he’ll probably go up some over those two weeks.

Braydon Preuss:  Did not play

 

Forwards

Will Brodie:  His last week here, as he just is not a cow.

Charlie Curnow: Sell now and did not play

Jade Gresham: Well, there are a lot of guys better available.  Plays R13 and R14, so hard to get rid of now.

Nicholas Martin: Did not play

Josh Rachele: Did not play.

Hugo Ralphsmith: Did not play

 

 

Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.

 

Dodgy Advice: 

I’m not sure this week! Reader ideas?

 

Thanks for reading!

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