Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

Well, at least we’re done the byes.

At this point, few trades, lots of needs, and very careful planning and thinking. Every out and every in is a big deal. When you have 30 trades, each one is just 3.3% of your total. east to spend them. At 20 trades left each one is just5% of you total left. With say 5, that’s 20% of your total trades left.

I’ gonna point out, that if we treated our trades at the start of the season they way we do now, well, we might be in better shape. Or, maybe we did and this is the year of the wounded fruitbat, and we’re all hurting because of that.

You forgot we got two extra trades, so technically each trade was even less…um, that does matter to this does it….?

No. What matters is how many now and how to use them

One out one in each time, so you need an out and an in. And, the in is either a cash extraction or a player to field!

That’s right!

I remembered! I R Smart. 

Yes you are. So, there are number below to help with who goes out. There is a rookie review to help with who comes in, assuming we don’t just go for a 102k DPP like Fyfe.

Which Fyfe?

The healthy one that plays for Gold Coast.

Anyways, that leave the in types to talk about. Which I am not going to do in the sense of specific guys who look good, because I have zero ability above the average, at best, on that sort of advice.

So what good are you?

Um, if any, thinking about how to think about the question.

So, at this point we’re 14 of 22 rounds played per player. That’s over 60% of the season. Certainly a decent sized data sample.  we cna look at averages and we can look at current v past roles and know if the season average is more likely to be accurate than a more recent set of games.

Like Darcy Parish where we would only use rounds 6 and on because his role changed, which means his expected average is over his season average!

Right again.

How about Ridley? 

Do not speak of the Riddler.

Why not?

Because I have no idea what is up with his role and without knowing that he’s a total roll of the dice. So, I lack anything useful to say. In This Case.

Awww….

Anyway, the roughest choices are the ones with limited data for some reason, like return from injury.

Like Danger and Rowell?

Yeah.  Danger is a real tough one. He is 31 and has gotten worse every year since 2017.  However, his “worse” is better than many player’s best If he falls off in a line, he would be about 110 or so expected. But he got hurt. And age can hit fast. And he has old age type hurts. So, he could be good and could be the 85 type guy he has been so far?

Your point?

Is on hold until after I talk about Rowell.

So, Rowell was amazing last season and showed enough of what he can do that there is loads O reasons to think he can do it again. Like Danger, he could have been safely projected at a solid level, like 105, for sure a 100 since he went at 102 last season.  But, when he came back and scored 54, 70, and 76, the talk of bringing him in ended, at least for now. Sure he was a very confident 100 and probably higher, but he has very little history so it is easy to blow that off and just look at his recent matches. Dangerfield, on the other hand has a nine season record of being a studmuffin, and so we feel like his chance of going back to that is “next game surely” even though he’s not done it in three games post return, or at all this season.

Well, is that fair? He was in the 90s the last two matches?

He’s sure a better bet than Rowell now, I’d not suggest Rowell now because he seems not over his injury., Which is sort of the question for Danger. Is he?  Enough that he is better than someone else who has not been hurt and is averaging better?

What is your point?

Sorry, my point is that when we are looking at players we need to be careful of going “Oh, he’s X, X is good, get him in. No matter what they have done in past season or even last season, where are they now? Why are there where they are now?

Was “X” Nat Fyfe? I’m all dying of curiosity. 

It could have been a number of players, but as it happens his name did pop into my head as an example of a name and history leading people astray. But it really could have been a lot of guys.

Other than Mundy.

Yes, he’s the example I’ll use forever after of a guy who wrestled the metaphorical beer truck of aging into the ground and drank the beer, rather than being run over by it.  Will happen, good post for next season.

Anyways, I don’t have a opinion on Danger yes or no now, and since I can’t afford him this round I do not have to think about it.  But when it is time to think about it, I am not going to assume he should be an automatics in.

You will just conclude that after thinking about it. 

Yeah, probably. But I will think about it.

 

 

 

Defenders 

Cows

Nikolas Cox: Rule of three says sell now, since his 95 goes out of his  three round  average after this week.  He is just one more bad score from being sent to Moo-ron mountain.

 

Jack Buckley: Annoying price drop with more drop probable. But, points in R14, so worth the cash. Might be a good one to move on this week.

 

Jacob Koschitzke: Still scoring like a forward. Does seem to have a job and not a lot of cash to get out now. Looks like a backup.

Thomas Highmore:  How is it the entire Supercoach community knew he could play and should play, and his coach didn’t?  Like back when Tom Mitchell was a Swan and didn’t get time on ground.  I must be in the bottom 10%, or even bottom 1% of people who like footy in evaluating talent, and I knew he could play.  I’d add a rule of Cow-quisition about it if there wasn’t one already, which there is.

Nathan Murphy: Came back with a 72. Still not looking like much cash wise, but decent cover hopefully.

 

Cow-Like-Objects

Jordan Clark:  Out hurt.

Changkuoth Jiath:  If he can average 85 from here on out I will be happy. Feels like a luxury to get rid of him. Also, for most of his owners, he has been a real value. Maybe not the focus now, but still something to remember for the future and end of season looking back. Too soon I guess.

 

Midfielders

Cows

Sam Berry: A 26, owch. Yet another backup with not a lot of cash value at this point.

James Jordan: Great cow, but at this point he is too far from what you can upgrade to to make him a keeper. And odds are he will need to go soon.

Tom Powell:  Did not play

Lachie McNeil: Did not play.

Riley Collier-Dawkins: Did not play

Ryan Bynes: Does seem to have more money to make, is playing.  Not big value, so may not be worth a downgrade yet.

 

Rucks

Matt Flynn:   Shot up in value once he got a run of games, what a shock.  So, him to Grundy now or later? If your cash situation handles it, season long, not this week, then I’d go now. I plan to go now myself. But, if you need to wait a week it is not the end of the world if it helps you make a better upgrade elsewhere. 

Jordan Sweet:  Did not play.

CCJ:  No goals, still scored ok, still has cash to make.  Can go when you need him too, but if you need cash then he look like he will make it.

 

Forwards

Cows

Robertson:   Nice little score to make a bit of cash and harder to go down if you need to wait. Was nice to see him score well with Neale back.

Warner: Did not play

Scott: Another sadly low score for someone with seemingly good job security. Could be worse.

Rowe: Nicely timed good score and will make some cash for those who still own him.

Bergman: Very likely to peak in price after next round.

Farar: Did not play

Owies: Rule of three with that 95. Although he was low priced enough that really move him to his hover point rather than past it.

Poulter: He is playing and is DPP, so, useful.

Jones: Sadly did not back up the ton.

Madden:  Played! Scored decently, has money to make if he keeps his spot.

Weightman:  Seems secure in the team, and has a fair amount of money left to make.

Cow-Like-Objects

Atkins: Still can go any time, or be backup

Daniher: Rule of three time if you do not plan to keep him. Nice timing on that ton.

(Please let me know if someone is missing or if something is messed up.)

Dodgy Advice:  I’m stuck on Supercoach, but….there is a band that I recently found out about that fits: Okilly Dokilly  Five Ned Flanders look alikes, and even sound alikes, playing Death Metal.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8RgxxRzZVs

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time-zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

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