Cow Talk R15 –> R16

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

This week, there is a good question about how to finish off some teams. Mainly, do we want steady players or do we want players who have both big and low scores? 

Are those the only options?

No, there are some players who have a good floor and sometimes go big. But there is no question about those;  they are better than either of the two I was talking about. If you have the cash to get the top plates just get them! 

Oh, duh, right.

So anyway, say you can get a guy who will go between 85-95 most of the time. An ok 90 average. You can also get a guy who goes for either 60 or 120. Same average but which one is better? 

Say the other 22 guys all average 100 and wander between 80 and 120. Would be 2300 points. 

So,the one guy with a high variance. He is the 23rd player, and the rest of the team has normal fluctuations, then every other week he goes big and pushes out a normal score, like an 80 from whoever had an off week. Gets you 40 points. The opposite week he will go for 60,and be dropped and not cover the guy who got 80. So, no change, no points.  Two week total of 40. 

For the guy with the low variance, he goes for 85 one week and 95 the next. Both times he pushed out the 80, for a gain of 5 points on his good week and 15 points on his bad week. Two week total of 20. 

So, you get 20 more points from the guy who goes back and forth. 

But, let’s say that one of your main 22 scores a 20, two weeks in a row. 120 is 100 more than 20, and 60 is 40 more than 20. Two weeks total of 140 for the first guy. 85 is 65 more than 20 and 95  is 75 more than 20. Two weeks total of 140. Which means in that case, there is no difference! 

Over two weeks. 

Right, if it happens just once then It is just luck which way it goes. 

So, if you have two guys who vary a lot, what happens?

Well, that’s over 4 weeks. Once in 4 weeks they both go 120, once they both go 60 and once they split and go 120 and 60. 

If they both go 120, they push out the 2 80s we are assuming. Gets you 80 points. 

If both go for 60, then one of them gets counted and you lose 20. 

If they split, then the 60 drops out and you get the 120, which is worth 20 points. That is 40 over the two weeks. 

So, 80 – 20 + 40 =100. That’s 25 a week extra on average. 

The more boring guy?  30 + 10 + 40 = 80. That is an extra 20 a week on average. 

So it looks like a high variance play get you points when he scores well, does not lose them when he does badly, and will still cover a disaster when one happens. Two of them still work out a net gain. 

So, we are assuming players who will put up a decent average. A lower average will result in fewer points. 

Such an insight!

Whoa Snark from the Hamster!

Yeah, well, that is obvious, of course you want a higher average. But how about a higher variance? To sum up, as long as the low end is covering your disaster scores, a high variance should work out. Two should work out. Three? Probably, but I’m not doing the math, too much for this week. I suspect the big thing is to avoid guys who have a really bad low end. But, in the end, average is what matters. 

So I should not be afraid of the guy who is all up and down, and instead give him a go?

Seems like!

I’m only doing guys who we seem to care about now. The cows we started with are mostly gone, although a few may still be lingering. Kako, cough cough. 

 

Defenders

 

Clarke: Might be ready to help in a few rounds. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2		113,500
3		113,500
4		113,500
5		113,500
6		113,500
7		113,500
8		113,500
9		113,500
10		113,500
11	97	113,500
12	44	113,500
13	71	113,500
14	29	177,600
15	65	19,500
16
17	65.0	217,500
18	65.0	231,033	13,533	13,533
19	65.0	256,933	25,900	39,433
20	65.0	276,086	19,153	58,586

 

Brock:   Has his bye

 

Travaglia:  Rhymes with Clucking Bell. I mean, dang. If you plan to harvest him, now. Otherwise he is a DPP maybe backup. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		172,000
1		172,000
2		172,000
3	83	172,000
4	52	172,000
5	21	172,000
6		195,400
7		195,400
8	0	195,400
9		195,400
10	22	195,400
11	56	186,100
12	49	180,800
13
14	43	189,200
15	-1	205,600
16	36.1	192,300
17	36.1	157,226	-35,074	-35,074
18	36.1	166,626	9,400	-25,674

 

Midfielders

 

Z Johnson: 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2		113,500
3		113,500
4		113,500
5		113,500
6		113,500
7		113,500
8		113,500
9		113,500
10		113,500
11		113,500
12	48	113,500
13	84	113,500
14	84	113,500
15	32	179,700
16
17	32.0	221,400
18	32.0	229,061	7,661	7,661
19	32.0	211,770	-17,291	-9,630
20	32.0	198,984	-12,786	-22,416

 

Rucks

 

Flynn:    Had His Bye

 

Forwards

 

Levi Ashcroft:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	87	221,700
5	90	249,100
6	89	277,400
7	68	322,500
8	99	347,800
9	77	370,800
10	68	381,800
11	95	389,300
12	59	392,800
13	66	387,300
14	45	383,500
15	112	359,100
16
17	76.5	364,300
18	76.5	371,332	7,032	7,032
19	76.5	390,365	19,033	26,065
20	76.5	355,105	-35,260	-9,195

 

Kako:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		149,500
1	62	149,500
2	34	149,500
3	62	149,500
4		163,100
5	38	163,100
6	55	191,700
7	49	210,200
8	60	218,300
9	30	234,200
10	32	234,500
11	44	226,900
12	52	214,000
13	39	214,100
14	50	217,900
15	57	228,700
16
17	47.4	230,000
18	47.4	237,533	7,533	7,533
19	47.4	241,956	4,422	11,956
20	47.4	220,130	-21,826	-9,870

 

 

Dodgy Advice:  So, that Sam Darcy guy? High variance and seemingly decent floor?

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

 

Thanks for reading!