Cow Talk: R2 –>3

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

This week we’re going to enter the Marvel Cinematic universe.  

How will we do that? 

I found a secret entrance in Marvel Stadium! 

Ah, the “Thor” door.  Good thinking, makes sense there would be one there. Of course we are more interested in Loki than Thor. Which, I am guessing, explains the….horn things you’re both wearing. 

I am the Imaginary Interlokicutor! 

I’m Hamster-gator Loki! Tribute Pumpkin seeds unto me! 

And I am going to go to different worlds and look at some variants to help show how cow growth and score timing works.

To keep things simple, I have NOT included deflation in these calculations. Most likely his actual round value would be about 93-94% of what is listed. His round 11 value would be more like 92% of what is listed. It is never the same. 

 

Let’s look at some Nick Martins.  We’ll start with Martin Prime. In the prime universe he always scores the 60 we expected of him. As you can see, he makes a good profit each week to about round 8 and slows down around the byes before slowing down to near nothing after the byes. 

Martin Prime
Round	Score	Price	Total Profit	Round Profit
1	60	102400
2	60	102400
3	60	102400
4	60	158,448	56,048	56,048
5	60	200,484	98,084	42,036
6	60	232,011	129,611	31,527
7	60	255,656	153,256	23,645
8	60	273,390	170,990	17,734
9	60	286,691	184,291	13,300
10	60	296,666	194,266	9,975
11	60	304,147	201,747	7,482
12	60	309,759	207,359	5,611
13	60	313,967	211,567	4,208
14	60	317,123	214,723	3,156
15	60	319,490	217,090	2,367
16	60	321,266	218,866	1,775
17	60	322,597	220,197	1,332
18	60	323,596	221,196	999
19	60	324,345	221,945	749
20	60	324,907	222,507	562
21	60	325,328	222,928	421
22	60	325,644	223,244	316

 

Next is Martin Alpha.  He scored a 114 in the first round but then went back to his 60s every round.  By round 8 he will have made about 4.5% more than Martin Prime. By round 11 that is down to 1.6% more. At round 15 about 0.5%.  So nice. Not thrilling, but nice. 

Martin Alpha
Round	Score	Price	Total Profit	Round Profit
1	114	102400
2	60	102400
3	60	102400
4	60	182,942	80,542	80,542
5	60	218,855	116,455	35,912
6	60	245,789	143,389	26,934
7	60	265,990	163,590	20,201
8	60	281,140	178,740	15,151
9	60	292,503	190,103	11,363
10	60	301,025	198,625	8,522
11	60	307,417	205,017	6,392
12	60	312,211	209,811	4,794
13	60	315,806	213,406	3,595
14	60	318,503	216,103	2,696
15	60	320,525	218,125	2,022
16	60	322,042	219,642	1,517
17	60	323,179	220,779	1,138
18	60	324,032	221,632	853
19	60	324,672	222,272	640
20	60	325,152	222,752	480
21	60	325,512	223,112	360
22	60	325,782	223,382	270

 

Now let’s look at Martin Beta. He scores 60 aside from round4, when he puts up that 114.  At round 8 he’s made 24.8% more profit than Martin Prime, on 11 he’s made 8.9% more and at round 15 he’s made 2.6% more. 

Round	Score	Price	Total Profit	Round Profit
1	60	102400
2	60	102400
3	60	102400
4	114	158,448	56,048	56,048
5	60	224,978	122,578	66,530
6	60	274,876	172,476	49,898
7	60	312,300	209,900	37,423
8	60	315,873	213,473	3,573
9	60	318,552	216,152	2,680
10	60	320,562	218,162	2,010
11	60	322,070	219,670	1,507
12	60	323,200	220,800	1,131
13	60	324,048	221,648	848
14	60	324,684	222,284	636
15	60	325,161	222,761	477
16	60	325,519	223,119	358
17	60	325,787	223,387	268
18	60	325,988	223,588	201
19	60	326,139	223,739	151
20	60	326,252	223,852	113
21	60	326,337	223,937	85
22	60	326,401	224,001	64

 

And now, Martin Gamma. He goes for 60 every round except round 7, when he scores 114.  At round 8 he has made 14.3% more than Martin Prime. Not as good as Martin Beta. But, at round 11 he has made 21% more than Martin Prime, and is much better than Martin Beta’s 8.9%!  At round 15 he has made 6.2% more than Martin Prime. 

Round	Score	Price	Total Profit	Round Profit
1	60	102400
2	60	102400
3	60	102400
4	60	158,448	56,048	56,048
5	60	200,484	98,084	42,036
6	60	232,011	129,611	31,527
7	114	255,656	153,256	23,645
8	60	297,885	195,485	42,228
9	60	329,556	227,156	31,671
10	60	353,309	250,909	23,753
11	60	346,630	244,230	-6,679
12	60	341,620	239,220	-5,009
13	60	337,863	235,463	-3,757
14	60	335,046	232,646	-2,818
15	60	332,932	230,532	-2,113
16	60	331,347	228,947	-1,585
17	60	330,158	227,758	-1,189
18	60	329,267	226,867	-892
19	60	328,598	226,198	-669
20	60	328,097	225,697	-502
21	60	327,720	225,320	-376
22	60	327,438	225,038	-282

 

Squeak! Round 10!

No worries, I was getting to that part. While we have been comparing round 11 profit, in the case of Martin Gamma we need to look at round 10 profits instead, because his round 10 price was higher than his round 11 price. He loses money every week after round 10. 

Please explain?

Two more and then I will sum it all up.  I’ll talk about them both at once. 

Martin Delta  and Martin Epsilon are 60 aside from their 114 at round 10 for Delta and round 13 for Epsilon. 

Rather than round by round totals, let’s look at peak value. 

Martin Gamma = $353,309

Martin Delta = $370,610

Martin Epsilon = $377,909

Martin Delta’s peak is $17,301 higher than Martin Gamma. Martin Gamma’s peak is $24,600 higher than Martin Gamma but just $7,299 higher than Martin Delta. 

Martin Delta
Round	Score	Price	Total Profit	Round Profit
1	60	102400
2	60	102400
3	60	102400
4	60	158,448	56,048	56,048
5	60	200,484	98,084	42,036
6	60	232,011	129,611	31,527
7	60	255,656	153,256	23,645
8	60	273,390	170,990	17,734
9	60	286,691	184,291	13,300
10	114	296,666	194,266	9,975
11	60	328,642	226,242	31,976
12	60	352,624	250,224	23,982
13	60	370,610	268,210	17,986
14	60	359,606	257,206	-11,005
15	60	351,352	248,952	-8,253
16	60	345,162	242,762	-6,190
17	60	340,520	238,120	-4,643
18	60	337,038	234,638	-3,482
19	60	334,426	232,026	-2,611
20	60	332,468	230,068	-1,959
21	60	330,999	228,599	-1,469
22	60	329,897	227,497	-1,102

 

Martin Epsilon
Round	Score	Price	Total Profit	Round Profit
1	60	102400
2	60	102400
3	60	102400
4	60	158,448	56,048	56,048
5	60	200,484	98,084	42,036
6	60	232,011	129,611	31,527
7	60	255,656	153,256	23,645
8	60	273,390	170,990	17,734
9	60	286,691	184,291	13,300
10	60	296,666	194,266	9,975
11	60	304,147	201,747	7,482
12	60	309,759	207,359	5,611
13	114	313,967	211,567	4,208
14	60	341,618	239,218	27,651
15	60	362,356	259,956	20,738
16	60	377,909	275,509	15,553
17	60	365,080	262,680	-12,829
18	60	355,458	253,058	-9,622
19	60	348,241	245,841	-7,216
20	60	342,829	240,429	-5,412
21	60	338,770	236,370	-4,059
22	60	335,725	233,325	-3,044

 

So, what’s this all mean and why do we care? 

Ok, so every player’s price will move towards what they are priced to average.  If a player is scoring 60s all the time, then their price will move from where it starts towards about $326,600. But, player price movement is based on the average of the last three rounds scores. That means that the target price a player’s scores move towards is actually changing every round. 

So if a player has a bad run the price they are moving towards can go lower than their current price and so they lose money?

Correct! But hard to manage for cows, so let’s just focus on growth. 

So, the Martins all started well below $326,600 and moved up towards it.  Scoring a 114 in the first round helped move towards that just a little. Scoring a 114 in round 4 helped move towards it more. Neither of those scores actually got their Martin up to $326,600, but they did get them towards it faster. 

When the 114 was scored in round 7, that Martin’s score went over $326,600. That’s because with the 114 in his three round average, his price was moving towards $424,570. That’s the price for a 78 average. (60+60+114) Before, his price was so low that the boost from moving towards $424,570 just grew him faster. With a higher starting price that boost put him over. 

Is that why the later the 114 the higher the peak?

Yes. The growth spike started from a high base, so it went higher. It is also why how high the peaks reached started to slow down. Less distance to the new target so less growth. 

Can you sum up again? Or more? Or whatever?

Sure!

Cows start out with a growth phase where they move towards their “level.” Big scores during that phase get them to their level faster but may not get them past it. 

Then, once a cow is at or at least near its level, a high score will shoot its price  up well past its level. Then, unless it has another high score, their price will drop back down, often quickly. 

So, our Martin’s 114 will do very little other than give him job security. It will be in his price cycle one round, helping him grow towards whatever his level is, but then will never matter again. What will really matter is if and when he has another high score, as well as what he averages. Ideally, Martin will average high enough to grow towards his level quickly and then he’ll put out another big score three rounds before we want to sell him. 

Oh, the Rule of Three.  The impact of a round’s score is most felt three rounds after it has happened. So a round 7 score will have maximum impact on his round 10 price. This helps plan selling and also helps you know when a low score will most drop the price of a gun.  Another way to look at that for Cows is that once a cow has reached its level, assume its season high price will be three rounds after a high score, unless it has another high score before that three rounds are up. 

I hope that all made sense!

(Sound of a laughing hamster)

 

Possibly Not Dodgy Advice:  Image that things go well for both McGovern and Berry from here. Both start scoring well and making money. Say 80s for both. Then round 8 rolls around. Let’s also imagine there is a $102,400 guy to downgrade McGovern to.  McGovern would be worth about $355,400 and Berry would be worth about $369,100.  One down McGovern to that $102,400 guy and you get $253,000, which added to Berry’s $369,100 means you would have $622,100 to spend. If Patrick Cripps scores 120 every round after this he’ll be worth about $584,600. So, one up one down gets Cripps and $37,500 left over. Or you could just downgrade McGovern to Martin this round, giving you $151,800 which added to Berry’s $268,500 totals $420,300. So if you have $34,500 in the bank or can somehow get that, you can make the swap now. If you make that swap now, you will get Cripps’ points plus your D6’s points for 4 extra rounds which in the example is 120 + say 50 = 170 and you would only be getting 160 a round from Mac and Berry. So that a bit ahead. 

But the big thing? Right now, you know every number involved in making that move. All is certain. In my example, McGovern and Berry both have to average 80 from here to round 8.  Feeling that lucky? Berry might even do better, if he stays unhurt but McGovern? Hmm, yeah, that’s not sure at all.  If he only averages 65, then he’d be worth about $303,600 which means you’re $14,300 short.  And if you don’t happen to have a $102,400 guy available to downgrade to  and need to use a $123,800 one?  Now you are $35,700 short.  That means you would have waited 5 rounds, and end up needing $1,200 more!  

If you are going to go one up and one down to get Cripps, do it now. All you get by waiting is risk and fewer points.  

Same logic to any move where the person you are bringing in is looking like they are well underpriced.  

 

 Dodgy Advice:  Might work out to downgrade a Steel or Gawn to a cheaper gun if it lets you upgrade a cow to a gun. More likely to work if you can upgrade two cows to two guns and end up with three guns.  

Disclaimer: The C-TAP does not in any way officially advocate trading out Jack Steele or Max Gawn or any other premium player. That’s a very naughty thing and if it does not work we will point and laugh and the hamster will squeak at you derisively for doing such a silly thing. If it does work we will take credit for such a good move which was clearly based on our advice and inspiring you to make such a daring move, even if you didn’t read this. We will declare victory no matter what, such is the way of the so-called-experts. 

This is the way.

This is the way.

 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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