Cow Talk: R2 –>3

Written by Father Dougal on March 30 2022

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

This week we’re going to enter the Marvel Cinematic universe.  

How will we do that? 

I found a secret entrance in Marvel Stadium! 

Ah, the “Thor” door.  Good thinking, makes sense there would be one there. Of course we are more interested in Loki than Thor. Which, I am guessing, explains the….horn things you’re both wearing. 

I am the Imaginary Interlokicutor! 

I’m Hamster-gator Loki! Tribute Pumpkin seeds unto me! 

And I am going to go to different worlds and look at some variants to help show how cow growth and score timing works.

To keep things simple, I have NOT included deflation in these calculations. Most likely his actual round value would be about 93-94% of what is listed. His round 11 value would be more like 92% of what is listed. It is never the same. 

 

Let’s look at some Nick Martins.  We’ll start with Martin Prime. In the prime universe he always scores the 60 we expected of him. As you can see, he makes a good profit each week to about round 8 and slows down around the byes before slowing down to near nothing after the byes. 

Martin Prime
Round Score Price Total Profit Round Profit
1 60 102400
2 60 102400
3 60 102400
4 60 158,448 56,048 56,048
5 60 200,484 98,084 42,036
6 60 232,011 129,611 31,527
7 60 255,656 153,256 23,645
8 60 273,390 170,990 17,734
9 60 286,691 184,291 13,300
10 60 296,666 194,266 9,975
11 60 304,147 201,747 7,482
12 60 309,759 207,359 5,611
13 60 313,967 211,567 4,208
14 60 317,123 214,723 3,156
15 60 319,490 217,090 2,367
16 60 321,266 218,866 1,775
17 60 322,597 220,197 1,332
18 60 323,596 221,196 999
19 60 324,345 221,945 749
20 60 324,907 222,507 562
21 60 325,328 222,928 421
22 60 325,644 223,244 316

 

Next is Martin Alpha.  He scored a 114 in the first round but then went back to his 60s every round.  By round 8 he will have made about 4.5% more than Martin Prime. By round 11 that is down to 1.6% more. At round 15 about 0.5%.  So nice. Not thrilling, but nice. 

Martin Alpha
Round Score Price Total Profit Round Profit
1 114 102400
2 60 102400
3 60 102400
4 60 182,942 80,542 80,542
5 60 218,855 116,455 35,912
6 60 245,789 143,389 26,934
7 60 265,990 163,590 20,201
8 60 281,140 178,740 15,151
9 60 292,503 190,103 11,363
10 60 301,025 198,625 8,522
11 60 307,417 205,017 6,392
12 60 312,211 209,811 4,794
13 60 315,806 213,406 3,595
14 60 318,503 216,103 2,696
15 60 320,525 218,125 2,022
16 60 322,042 219,642 1,517
17 60 323,179 220,779 1,138
18 60 324,032 221,632 853
19 60 324,672 222,272 640
20 60 325,152 222,752 480
21 60 325,512 223,112 360
22 60 325,782 223,382 270

 

Now let’s look at Martin Beta. He scores 60 aside from round4, when he puts up that 114.  At round 8 he’s made 24.8% more profit than Martin Prime, on 11 he’s made 8.9% more and at round 15 he’s made 2.6% more. 

Round Score Price Total Profit Round Profit
1 60 102400
2 60 102400
3 60 102400
4 114 158,448 56,048 56,048
5 60 224,978 122,578 66,530
6 60 274,876 172,476 49,898
7 60 312,300 209,900 37,423
8 60 315,873 213,473 3,573
9 60 318,552 216,152 2,680
10 60 320,562 218,162 2,010
11 60 322,070 219,670 1,507
12 60 323,200 220,800 1,131
13 60 324,048 221,648 848
14 60 324,684 222,284 636
15 60 325,161 222,761 477
16 60 325,519 223,119 358
17 60 325,787 223,387 268
18 60 325,988 223,588 201
19 60 326,139 223,739 151
20 60 326,252 223,852 113
21 60 326,337 223,937 85
22 60 326,401 224,001 64

 

And now, Martin Gamma. He goes for 60 every round except round 7, when he scores 114.  At round 8 he has made 14.3% more than Martin Prime. Not as good as Martin Beta. But, at round 11 he has made 21% more than Martin Prime, and is much better than Martin Beta’s 8.9%!  At round 15 he has made 6.2% more than Martin Prime. 

Round Score Price Total Profit Round Profit
1 60 102400
2 60 102400
3 60 102400
4 60 158,448 56,048 56,048
5 60 200,484 98,084 42,036
6 60 232,011 129,611 31,527
7 114 255,656 153,256 23,645
8 60 297,885 195,485 42,228
9 60 329,556 227,156 31,671
10 60 353,309 250,909 23,753
11 60 346,630 244,230 -6,679
12 60 341,620 239,220 -5,009
13 60 337,863 235,463 -3,757
14 60 335,046 232,646 -2,818
15 60 332,932 230,532 -2,113
16 60 331,347 228,947 -1,585
17 60 330,158 227,758 -1,189
18 60 329,267 226,867 -892
19 60 328,598 226,198 -669
20 60 328,097 225,697 -502
21 60 327,720 225,320 -376
22 60 327,438 225,038 -282

 

Squeak! Round 10!

No worries, I was getting to that part. While we have been comparing round 11 profit, in the case of Martin Gamma we need to look at round 10 profits instead, because his round 10 price was higher than his round 11 price. He loses money every week after round 10. 

Please explain?

Two more and then I will sum it all up.  I’ll talk about them both at once. 

Martin Delta  and Martin Epsilon are 60 aside from their 114 at round 10 for Delta and round 13 for Epsilon. 

Rather than round by round totals, let’s look at peak value. 

Martin Gamma = $353,309

Martin Delta = $370,610

Martin Epsilon = $377,909

Martin Delta’s peak is $17,301 higher than Martin Gamma. Martin Gamma’s peak is $24,600 higher than Martin Gamma but just $7,299 higher than Martin Delta. 

Martin Delta
Round Score Price Total Profit Round Profit
1 60 102400
2 60 102400
3 60 102400
4 60 158,448 56,048 56,048
5 60 200,484 98,084 42,036
6 60 232,011 129,611 31,527
7 60 255,656 153,256 23,645
8 60 273,390 170,990 17,734
9 60 286,691 184,291 13,300
10 114 296,666 194,266 9,975
11 60 328,642 226,242 31,976
12 60 352,624 250,224 23,982
13 60 370,610 268,210 17,986
14 60 359,606 257,206 -11,005
15 60 351,352 248,952 -8,253
16 60 345,162 242,762 -6,190
17 60 340,520 238,120 -4,643
18 60 337,038 234,638 -3,482
19 60 334,426 232,026 -2,611
20 60 332,468 230,068 -1,959
21 60 330,999 228,599 -1,469
22 60 329,897 227,497 -1,102

 

Martin Epsilon
Round Score Price Total Profit Round Profit
1 60 102400
2 60 102400
3 60 102400
4 60 158,448 56,048 56,048
5 60 200,484 98,084 42,036
6 60 232,011 129,611 31,527
7 60 255,656 153,256 23,645
8 60 273,390 170,990 17,734
9 60 286,691 184,291 13,300
10 60 296,666 194,266 9,975
11 60 304,147 201,747 7,482
12 60 309,759 207,359 5,611
13 114 313,967 211,567 4,208
14 60 341,618 239,218 27,651
15 60 362,356 259,956 20,738
16 60 377,909 275,509 15,553
17 60 365,080 262,680 -12,829
18 60 355,458 253,058 -9,622
19 60 348,241 245,841 -7,216
20 60 342,829 240,429 -5,412
21 60 338,770 236,370 -4,059
22 60 335,725 233,325 -3,044

 

So, what’s this all mean and why do we care? 

Ok, so every player’s price will move towards what they are priced to average.  If a player is scoring 60s all the time, then their price will move from where it starts towards about $326,600. But, player price movement is based on the average of the last three rounds scores. That means that the target price a player’s scores move towards is actually changing every round. 

So if a player has a bad run the price they are moving towards can go lower than their current price and so they lose money?

Correct! But hard to manage for cows, so let’s just focus on growth. 

So, the Martins all started well below $326,600 and moved up towards it.  Scoring a 114 in the first round helped move towards that just a little. Scoring a 114 in round 4 helped move towards it more. Neither of those scores actually got their Martin up to $326,600, but they did get them towards it faster. 

When the 114 was scored in round 7, that Martin’s score went over $326,600. That’s because with the 114 in his three round average, his price was moving towards $424,570. That’s the price for a 78 average. (60+60+114) Before, his price was so low that the boost from moving towards $424,570 just grew him faster. With a higher starting price that boost put him over. 

Is that why the later the 114 the higher the peak?

Yes. The growth spike started from a high base, so it went higher. It is also why how high the peaks reached started to slow down. Less distance to the new target so less growth. 

Can you sum up again? Or more? Or whatever?

Sure!

Cows start out with a growth phase where they move towards their “level.” Big scores during that phase get them to their level faster but may not get them past it. 

Then, once a cow is at or at least near its level, a high score will shoot its price  up well past its level. Then, unless it has another high score, their price will drop back down, often quickly. 

So, our Martin’s 114 will do very little other than give him job security. It will be in his price cycle one round, helping him grow towards whatever his level is, but then will never matter again. What will really matter is if and when he has another high score, as well as what he averages. Ideally, Martin will average high enough to grow towards his level quickly and then he’ll put out another big score three rounds before we want to sell him. 

Oh, the Rule of Three.  The impact of a round’s score is most felt three rounds after it has happened. So a round 7 score will have maximum impact on his round 10 price. This helps plan selling and also helps you know when a low score will most drop the price of a gun.  Another way to look at that for Cows is that once a cow has reached its level, assume its season high price will be three rounds after a high score, unless it has another high score before that three rounds are up. 

I hope that all made sense!

(Sound of a laughing hamster)

 

Possibly Not Dodgy Advice:  Image that things go well for both McGovern and Berry from here. Both start scoring well and making money. Say 80s for both. Then round 8 rolls around. Let’s also imagine there is a $102,400 guy to downgrade McGovern to.  McGovern would be worth about $355,400 and Berry would be worth about $369,100.  One down McGovern to that $102,400 guy and you get $253,000, which added to Berry’s $369,100 means you would have $622,100 to spend. If Patrick Cripps scores 120 every round after this he’ll be worth about $584,600. So, one up one down gets Cripps and $37,500 left over. Or you could just downgrade McGovern to Martin this round, giving you $151,800 which added to Berry’s $268,500 totals $420,300. So if you have $34,500 in the bank or can somehow get that, you can make the swap now. If you make that swap now, you will get Cripps’ points plus your D6’s points for 4 extra rounds which in the example is 120 + say 50 = 170 and you would only be getting 160 a round from Mac and Berry. So that a bit ahead. 

But the big thing? Right now, you know every number involved in making that move. All is certain. In my example, McGovern and Berry both have to average 80 from here to round 8.  Feeling that lucky? Berry might even do better, if he stays unhurt but McGovern? Hmm, yeah, that’s not sure at all.  If he only averages 65, then he’d be worth about $303,600 which means you’re $14,300 short.  And if you don’t happen to have a $102,400 guy available to downgrade to  and need to use a $123,800 one?  Now you are $35,700 short.  That means you would have waited 5 rounds, and end up needing $1,200 more!  

If you are going to go one up and one down to get Cripps, do it now. All you get by waiting is risk and fewer points.  

Same logic to any move where the person you are bringing in is looking like they are well underpriced.  

 

 Dodgy Advice:  Might work out to downgrade a Steel or Gawn to a cheaper gun if it lets you upgrade a cow to a gun. More likely to work if you can upgrade two cows to two guns and end up with three guns.  

Disclaimer: The C-TAP does not in any way officially advocate trading out Jack Steele or Max Gawn or any other premium player. That’s a very naughty thing and if it does not work we will point and laugh and the hamster will squeak at you derisively for doing such a silly thing. If it does work we will take credit for such a good move which was clearly based on our advice and inspiring you to make such a daring move, even if you didn’t read this. We will declare victory no matter what, such is the way of the so-called-experts. 

This is the way.

This is the way.

 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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13 thoughts on “Cow Talk: R2 –>3”

  1. Thanks father. Always appreciate the wisdom. Points are great now but cash later is what allows you to upgrade to the form Uber premos post byes. Thanks for reminding me to keep Martin Berry.

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  2. A thought.

    If Chapman + Gov dont make 150k but do make enough to go 1 up 1 down to a premium + rookie are they successful Cows?

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    1. In my opinion, Yes JD. As long as they drop a 90 or a 100 to continue making some money which they are capable of . Because if you are going to trade them out, whoever comes in need to be a keeper or make at least 200k to make the trade worth it. Sure you will lose points , but even premos don’t always score 120

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      1. I was more implying that say they average 60-65 without that spike and stay on the bench. If they get to the point where you can do the typical 2 for 1 rookie to premium trade (say 300k) are they a success?

        Or at worst case a neutral situation after all the hope for your 123k or less rookies is to get to around 250-300k

        Something which they both are starting with and should maintain

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  3. Ginnivan and Naish aren’t getting much love when it comes to rookies on the bubble with BE of -66 and -42 is it purely their starting prices as to why they aren’t being mentioned much?
    Providing you already have the likes of Xerri/Martin etc?

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    1. Let’s say you have 2 premos + Cogs in your Fwds.

      That leaves 5 spots. Xeri, Brodie, rachelle, Martin, (Hayes/Dixon swing)

      And your full up with better players.

      You could move rachelle to your mid bench to fit one in instead of one of Ward/Stephens/McDonald or if you went with 3 rookies on field as your final bench slot but 200k is a lot for an M10/11 when their points don’t matter since they won’t count.

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    2. I think they are just not the best players available. They are ok, but not the best. Xerri over Ginnivan for example. Or Martin. I looked at them but neither is better than who I am bringing in.

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    3. I think because Ginnivan needs to continue kicking goals to score and with Naish job security may be the issue as he will be up against a lot of senior players who will come straight back in.

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  4. Hi Father,

    Not rookie related, but I too will be time zone challenged in the coming weeks. Any tips for managing SC?

    Thank you.

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    1. Be ready to get up in the middle of the night! Sadly not joking.

      I try hard to make moves ahead of time if that is possible. I try to avoid a VC that plays in the same day as my C option so I don’t have to deal with thinking at 4:00am. Pretty much any thinking while very tired is a pain. I do things like forget that a DPP player I need to move in order to make a trade can be locked out before the other players involved.

      No super clever things I’m afraid. The good news in you get a lot of think time during the day before weekend moves.

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      1. Thanks Father,

        I’ll make a point of having good separation of my Vc/C! Let’s hope for no late outs and minimal bench disruption, though I’ll console myself with a real ale if needed.

        If you’re based in the UK, how do you generally watch games? I’m assuming my Kayo won’t work outside of Australia.

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  5. I get https://www.watchafl.com.au/ as part of my international membership. Can see every game either live or after. I think they do weekly and monthly options.

    I’m actually based in the US, but anyplace overseas would be the same site.

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