Cow Talk: R2 –>3

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

 

Greetings, my friends. We are all interested in the future for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives., playing Supercoach. Injuries, Bevo, Power outages, Ross Lyon, Tags, Bevo, Good games, Bad games, Bevo, and many other unexpected surprises. Future events such as these will affect you in the future. You are interested in the unknown, the mysterious, the unexplainable. That is why you are here. And now, for the first time, we are bringing to you the full story of what happened on that fateful day. We are giving you all the evidence, based only on the secret testimonies of the miserable souls who survived this terrifying ordeal: the incidents, the places. My friends, we cannot keep this a secret any longer. Let us punish the guilty. Let us reward the innocent. My friend, can your heart stand the shocking facts about AFL Supercoach?

No! I’m scared already!

Ok, in that case, we won’t give you all the evidence, based only on the secret testimonies of the miserable souls who survived this terrifying ordeal: the incidents, the places. My friends, we can keep this a secret for longer.

Thank you!

What are you talking about?

Nothing!

Last week!

More this upcoming week I think

Same thing!

No, not the same thing at all! This week is not last week!

Exactly, and that’s what we’re gonna talk about, this week is not last week. This year is not last year, nor is it any of the years before. This week isn’t even some sort of average of the last two weeks.

Ok, so isn’t that obvious? 

Well, no. I mean, yes, but we all often forget and expect this year to be like last year and this week to be like previous weeks. Then we make trades based on that and are surprised when next week, which is not this week, isn’t like last week at all, and last year is right out! Except when it isn’t.

(A hamster’s lips move as they silently re-read that, several times) 

So, are you talking about trading in Dane Rampe because he scored 150 and then he scored 82 because last week wasn’t the week before? Which, if we looked at last year, and the rest of his last years, and his age, we would have known not to do? 

Yes, that’s a good example.

How about Horne-Francis?

He is more interesting. Expecting a string of 136s for an average of 120+ would not have been realistic. Expecting he could average enough to be a good cow and maybe a forward keeper, could be. Jury is still out. He is priced to average 63.3, so if he keeps up 90.5, that’s fine actually. And since we know he can go big, that bodes well for a good selling price after a spike.

So, getting him in as a good mid-pricer would be ok, but not thinking he was suddenly a top eight midfielder?

Yeah. Small data samples are small data samples. So one week, or even two weeks, that can be very misleading. But, we can make use of the data we have.

How?

Firstly by putting it into context of previous years and also previous players. JHF was a #1 pick, so it is not crazy to think he will do well in his second year. And, while he did badly at North last year he did change teams, and got his legs fixed, and probably is a lot happier.

And?

Secondly, if he did it once he can do it again. That goes for both the 136 and the 45. As we learned last year from Rowell, going big the first week could mean someone had their best week round one. That will happen to about 1 in 23 players after all, just like about 1 in 23 will have their worst week round 1. But it is evidence that tons are on the table.

So JHF is ok to have but hardly a must have? 

Right. Per me, but what do I know?

How about Sheezel? No history, two games, two great scores, could be a total trap! But everyone is like “get him in, not at trap at all” What’s up with that?

Good question! First, there is some data since he has played non-AFL games and he did really well in them, so that is at least some use. Also, he passes the eye test.

He doesn’t need corrective lenses?

While he was playing he looked like a player who could keep it up and actually be worth getting in. Also, he is a rookie cow, and the bar is lower for getting in rookie cows. If he cost $400,000 I’d be a lot more worried about getting him in. As it is, his best case is he is a keeper for F6/D6 but he seems really set to make at least $150,000, so low risk.

Are you going to go through all the popular players?

No, I’d rather talk about things to keep in mind and let everyone do their own thinking after that.

But, like how do we know when to ignore last year because they are no longer the great player they once were or are just now the great player they will be but were not before? Or if they are the same and had a good ro bad game? That’s like, no help at all! Could be anything!?!

Fair question. I use what I would call the “Bobby Hill test”

It was funnier before you fixed the typo

Sigh. But, I can’t call it that because there is an actual player named Bobby Hill, so I’m going to call it the “Hank Hill test.” You look at a guy, and if that boy ain’t right, you do not get him, and if you own him you get rid of him.

Does it work?

Well, it can, and is better than just looking at numbers by a long way

Gasp!

Ignoring numbers is bad,but only using numbers is bad too. Number say Macrae will bounce back, but after watching all of both Bulldogs games, I’m feeling like I’m better off trading him. Sean Darcy has had bad games before, but looking at him and Freo play this year, I’m not feeling good about him either. Those boys ain’t right.

So you are trading them to boys who are right?

I am planning to trade them to players who I feel a lot better about. Priced below what I think they will average rather than above, and who looked good in their two matches.

Why didn’t you start with those….sorry…nevermind….So, to change the subject quickly…. 

Good plan!

That’s all nice but pretty theory-full and maybe not news to a lot of people. Anything more concrete to talk about? Cow stuff?

Ok, yeah, Cow Growth!

So, when people talk about what a cow has to average to make a certain amount of money, that;’s sort of misleading. It is not technically wrong, but no player scores the same number week after week. So how do rise work really?

First, players go up towards their “level” or about where they will average. If a player starts at $123,900 and their average leads to a $350,000 price then they move towards $350,000. That can be slow or fast depending on what they score when on the way. A big round one score and more normal score will be a slower rise than more normal round one and two scores and a big round three score. The main thing is that a big spike score early helps cows get to the level more quickly, but not to go past it. Once a player is near or at their level, a spike score will raise their price above their level, possibly to their season high. Then, normal scores see their price go back down.  The Rule of Three says a player’s highest price will be three rounds after their highest score. This only works if their highest score is not too early, and a second spike score that happens within three rounds might push their highest price higher.

Really low scores in round one matter little and at least help price changes get going. If they happen rounds 3 on, they will slow growth a lot. If they happen once a player has hit their level, they drop him down a lot and can delay their being ready to sell.

So?

So, guys who don’t have really bad games and sometimes have great games make good cows. Players with the same average who vary more end up scoring better than someone with the same average but fewer ups and down. That’s why seeing that a cow can go big is a big deal.

Steady 100s are good but 80s and 120 are better?

Right!

Do you have math?

I have done it before and if I have time before this goes live I will again, but I am getting this out anyways.

Time???

I am still having real life time sucking issues, sorry.

As long as the Pumpkin seeds are not late!

I know my priorities!

 

Dodgy Advice:  The more I think about it, the more I think fast points is the way to go.  If you can’t make good use of three trades this round you have an amazing team and good on ya. But really, odds are there are improvements you can make, and should. Given how many players are playing and that some percent of them are going hard for points, some percent of them, even if it is a small percent of them will end up taking an early lead and not being catchable.  I don’t think anyone is un-catchable yet, but with each passing round, there are teams building up bigger and bigger leads.  This year is not previous years with 30 trades and no boosts. The way to play from back then is not the way to play now.  Fast cash does lead to fast points, but we have always wanted fast cash, That’s not changed.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

---

Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom