Cow Talk R5 –> R6

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

This week, we are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.

Was that you and I?

Or You and I?

I think he meant me!

No, me!

Technically, only the Hamster and I are alive. 

What! You, that, you….pout, sulk. 

Yay It was me!

Already off topic, well done guys. So, the future….

I made a meme!  

About the future?

Yes, about Supercoach and the future even!

 Wow, ok, let’s see it.

My First Meme:

Harsh.

But, write down the date, The Hamster is correct. 

Yay!

We can’t get past points. That might be good, or might be bad, but all previous scores are only useful as clues to future scores. 

Yeah, don’t we all know that?

Sort of. A very common thing people talk about when trading in is “Top 8 defender/Forward” or “Top 10 Mid” or “Top 3 Ruck”. Like, will the guy you want to bring in be a Top 8 Midfielder?

Yeah, so?

Wrong question.

Really, it sounds like a good question. Pray tell why it is the wrong question.

Because the top 10 ranking mids at the end of the year include the points that have already been scored and we will not get. 

Oh…

The real question is, “Will they be a top 10 midfielder from now on?”

Or top whatever for the other positions. 

Right. That question alone is not enough, there is also the matter of price. Floating premiums are going to cost more per point, while fallen premiums are going to cost less per point. There are probably a half dozen or more guys who will score about 115 a week from here on out, but some will be priced over 115 and some under. 

Which is obvious?

Probably yeah. But at the start of the season when we talk about a players season average and start them, we will get all the points if you buy and hold. Right now, if, say McCluggage has a final average of 122 a match that means he has gone for 120.4 from here on out. 

Not bad at all!

Indeed, hard to complain, and costs $286.4 per point. 

Lets say Josh DUnkley also ends the season at 122 per match. That means he will be going for 122.7 the rest of the season. 

Better, but not a “Hugh” amount better

(Pained squeak)

And those points cost you $262.5 each. 

So, assuming they both end the season at a 122 average, McCluggage cost you $620,700 for 2,167 points, and Dunkley would cost you $579,900 for 2,209 points. Which means Dunkley costs less for more points. 

Which is nice, but again sort of obvious? 

We have all known about fallen premiums for years, and now we all know about floating premiums, so, this is a nice reminder but really, a whole column on this?

Uh….. 

No, of course not. There is something else I was planning to talk about…. 

Does it live in Canada?

Anyways, that example is secretly flawed. 

And you used it!

Yeah, so I could go on to this part! The flaw is me picking a number that worked for my example which looks ok given their current averages, but may not be really. Five games is still a small data sample.

How do we know how reasonable such a guess is?

First we look at their age. To sum up, players over 27 are past the point of natural progression. Players over 30 are likely to start regressing. Players over 21 are much more likely to be getting better. Peak first uber-premo scoring age is 23-25 with 22 and 26 not out of the question, and 27 rare. 

Second we look at how they are doing compared to their previous year and their previous best. 

Then we look at them both together. McCluggage is 27 and averaging 122 for the season would be an 18 point jump from his previous best. His five season average is about 100. So, that’s not encouraging. But, then we have to ask, has something changed that could explain that big of a jump being real? 

Like if one of his teammates was no longer hoovering up the midfield points? 

Could be. Of Course there are some Ashcrofts scoring well and taking points now too. 

Why’d you have to go and make things so complicated?

I didn’t make them that way, they just are. So, would I get McCluggage in now for his price? No, too big a risk for me. Has to be better value out there both cost and cost per point. 

How about Dunkley?

He is 28 with a career high of 115. So, not insane that he could end up on 122, but still, I feel he has a range of around 112 to 122, so he is at the higher end. Not as many better buys as from McCluggage, for one thing Dunkley looks a better buy compared to McCluggage, but yeah, not thrilled about him at his current price. 

Staying with that midfield, Will Ashcroft?

Well, he is 20, and a 111 average at 20 is rare, but Oliver had a 114 average at 20. So, would I buy him, no, but I sure would not rush to sell him. 

A conclusion?

Try to be sane and realistic about the whole “average from here on out thing.”  There are far fewer obviously floating premiums, but there are still some to avoid just as there are fallen premiums to target. 

 

Defenders

Wow. Play on field and enjoy the price rises

Z Reid
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1	45	119,900
2	36	119,900
3	88	119,900
4		163,100
5	104	163,100
6	68.3	220,700
7	68.3	278,520	57,820	57,820
8	68.3	312,610	34,091	91,910
9	68.3	322,053	9,442	101,353
10	68.3	329,046	6,993	108,346
11	68.3	334,225	5,179	113,525
12	68.3	338,061	3,836	117,361

 

Wow. Play on field and enjoy the price rises 2, Richmond Boogaloo. 

Trainor
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		133,500
1	50	133,500
2	24	133,500
3	90	133,500
4	82	156,200
5	80	201,400
6	65.2	259,500
7	65.2	292,644	33,144	33,144
8	65.2	309,763	17,119	50,263
9	65.2	315,898	6,135	56,398
10	65.2	320,442	4,544	60,942
11	65.2	323,808	3,365	64,308
12	65.2	326,300	2,493	66,800

 

Very blah scoring. If he blahs up again, could go next week. 

Prior
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		169,200
1	50	169,200
2	57	169,200
3	78	169,200
4		163,100
5	54	163,100
6	59.8	235,500
7	59.8	259,195	23,695	23,695
8	59.8	268,676	9,480	33,176
9	59.8	278,239	9,564	42,739
10	59.8	285,322	7,083	49,822
11	59.8	290,568	5,246	55,068
12	59.8	294,453	3,885	58,953

 

What is there to say. Own him, play him on field, going to make so much money and score so many points. (Knock on wood) 

Bice
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	52	113,500
2	96	113,500
3		113,500
4	124	113,500
5	89	203,400
6	90.3	286,100
7	90.3	345,968	59,868	59,868
8	90.3	375,386	29,418	89,286
9	90.3	397,726	22,340	111,626
10	90.3	414,272	16,546	128,172
11	90.3	426,526	12,254	140,426
12	90.3	435,602	9,076	149,502

 

Owch. Still had money to make, and might spike gain. 

Connor O’Sullivan
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		148,700
1	48	148,700
2	88	148,700
3	77	148,700
4	103	203,900
5	42	268,200
6	71.6	296,788	28,588	28,588
7	71.6	315,573	18,785	47,373
8	71.6	315,604	30	47,404
9	71.6	328,713	13,109	60,513
10	71.6	338,422	9,709	70,222
11	71.6	345,613	7,191	77,413
12	71.6	350,939	5,326	82,739

 

Does have a job.

Finn O’Sullivan
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		199,000
1	51	199,000
2	42	199,000
3	44	199,000
4		207,400
5	69	207,400
6	51.5	221,200
7	51.5	236,556	15,356	15,356
8	51.5	251,245	14,689	30,045
9	51.5	254,387	3,142	33,187
10	51.5	256,714	2,327	35,514
11	51.5	258,438	1,723	37,238
12	51.5	259,714	1,276	38,514

 

Midfielders

Hate Cats cows. No bleeping idea what to suggest. 

Knevitt
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		145,800
1	82	145,800
2	58	145,800
3	20	145,800
4		181,200
5	50	181,200
6	52.5	189,900
7	52.5	194,805	4,905	4,905
8	52.5	212,807	18,002	22,907
9	52.5	227,246	14,438	37,346
10	52.5	237,939	10,693	48,039
11	52.5	245,859	7,920	55,959
12	52.5	251,724	5,866	61,824

 

Well. Huh. I’d hold and hope for another spike score. Not sure why the drop in scoring. 

M Reid
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		131,500
1	50	131,500
2	75	131,500
3	106	131,500
4	73	199,100
5	58	258,500
6	72.4	294,900
7	72.4	308,339	13,439	13,439
8	72.4	318,027	9,688	23,127
9	72.4	331,569	13,542	36,669
10	72.4	341,598	10,029	46,698
11	72.4	349,026	7,428	54,126
12	72.4	354,528	5,501	59,628

 

Sadly, I did not mess up his off week, he has a 64 BE. 

Lindsay
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,500
1	86	158,500
2	78	158,500
3	9	158,500
4		193,400
5	48	193,400
6	55.3	202,000
7	55.3	199,235	-2,765	-2,765
8	55.3	217,636	18,401	15,636
9	55.3	234,469	16,833	32,469
10	55.3	246,936	12,467	44,936
11	55.3	256,170	9,234	54,170
12	55.3	263,008	6,839	61,008

 

I made a “Lowest score so far” meme for him but feel his owner have been punished enough and am not posting it here.  

Henderson
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		99,100
1	55	99,100
2	72	99,100
3	43	99,100
4	32	148,300
5	13	173,500
6	43.0	166,900
7	43.0	162,518	-4,382	-4,382
8	43.0	164,135	1,618	-2,765
9	43.0	178,597	14,462	11,697
10	43.0	189,308	10,711	22,408
11	43.0	197,241	7,933	30,341
12	43.0	203,116	5,875	36,216

 

Please keep your job

Moraes
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2	52	113,500
3	94	113,500
4	43	113,500
5	42	166,800
6	57.8	201,800
7	57.8	212,572	10,772	10,772
8	57.8	227,071	14,499	25,271
9	57.8	244,773	17,702	42,973
10	57.8	257,884	13,111	56,084
11	57.8	267,594	9,710	65,794
12	57.8	274,785	7,191	72,985

 

Please keep your job. 

C Hall
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		129,500
1		129,500
2	88	129,500
3		129,500
4	58	129,500
5	62	129,500
6	69.3	187,100
7	69.3	222,280	35,180	35,180
8	69.3	253,347	31,066	66,247
9	69.3	279,597	26,251	92,497
10	69.3	299,039	19,442	111,939
11	69.3	313,439	14,399	126,339
12	69.3	324,103	10,664	137,003

 

Had to include him. Talk to a Collingwood expert about his job security; feels high risk and high reward. 

Long
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		200,900
1	30	200,900
2	113	200,900
3	57	200,900
4		240,000
5	26	240,000
6	114	263,000
7	68.0	280,600
8	68.0	299,782	19,182	19,182
9	68.0	332,558	32,776	51,958
10	68.0	336,495	3,937	55,895
11	68.0	339,410	2,916	58,810
12	68.0	341,570	2,159	60,970

 

Rucks

—

Forwards

He’s actually looking kinda good. Easy BE of 43. Love to see him ton up again. 

Hugo Garcia
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		245,800
1	54	245,800
2	25	245,800
3	99	245,800
4	54	260,000
5	84	269,800
6	63.2	303,300
7	63.2	313,588	10,288	10,288
8	63.2	325,274	11,687	21,974
9	63.2	324,734	-541	21,434
10	63.2	324,333	-400	21,033
11	63.2	324,037	-297	20,737
12	63.2	323,817	-220	20,517

 

Now a forward. Nice. Lots of very good scores, hoping there is a great one coming soon. 

Levi Ashcroft
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	87	221,700
5	90	249,100
6	73.8	227,400
7	73.8	279,304	51,904	51,904
8	73.8	311,909	32,605	84,509
9	73.8	328,895	16,986	101,495
10	73.8	341,475	12,580	114,075
11	73.8	350,792	9,317	123,392
12	73.8	357,692	6,900	130,292

 

I plan to hold and hope for another spike score. He could punish those who sell this week. 

Davidson
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	39	113,500
2	72	113,500
3	129	113,500
4	54	189,800
5	61	252,100
6	71.0	293,200
7	71.0	299,387	6,187	6,187
8	71.0	311,485	12,098	18,285
9	71.0	324,867	13,382	31,667
10	71.0	334,778	9,911	41,578
11	71.0	342,118	7,340	48,918
12	71.0	347,554	5,436	54,354

 

Getting harder to hold, but may have a spike score in him this week. 

Kako
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		149,500
1	62	149,500
2	34	149,500
3	62	149,500
4		163,100
5	38	163,100
6	49.0	191,700
7	49.0	207,855	16,155	16,155
8	49.0	214,072	6,217	22,372
9	49.0	223,540	9,468	31,840
10	49.0	230,552	7,012	38,852
11	49.0	235,745	5,193	44,045
12	49.0	239,592	3,846	47,892

 

His last week here. Booted to Moo-ron Mountain, home of exiled cows. 

Lynch
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		183,200
1	61	183,200
2		183,200
3	42	183,200
4	37	183,200
5	34	196,600
6	43.5	194,600
7	43.5	194,749	149	149
8	43.5	197,734	2,984	3,134
9	43.5	204,144	6,411	9,544
10	43.5	208,892	4,748	14,292
11	43.5	212,408	3,516	17,808
12	43.5	215,012	2,604	20,412

 

Voted most likely to be sold after two more rounds. Unless he tons up again. 

Sam PP
Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,500
1	18	180,500
2	83	180,500
3	48	180,500
4	74	199,000
5	101	236,800
6	64.8	272,700
7	64.8	307,991	35,291	35,291
8	64.8	330,060	22,070	57,360
9	64.8	330,400	340	57,700
10	64.8	330,652	252	57,952
11	64.8	330,839	187	58,139
12	64.8	330,977	138	58,277

 

 

Dodgy Advice: Fix rookies who are not making money and get dodgy rookies off the field before making sideways trades. Sideways trading messes up your upgrade cadence. Be careful going early on cows. There are rarely any true must have players. Don’t Panic. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!