Cow Talk R7 –> R8

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

This week we have a catchphrase. 

I have a cunning plan! 

That didn’t take long. 

I have a cunning plan! 

Yes, that is this week’s catchphrase..

I have a cunning plan! 

Is it as cunning as a hamster who wants a pumpkin seed? 

It is exactly that cunning!  I have a cunning plan! 

It is to say “I have a cunning plan” until we give you a Pumpkin seed to make you stop?

I have a cunning plan! 

Please make him stop!

( Happy squeak, followed by the sounds of munching) 

So, the rest of us all also need cunning plans. This is the time of year when plans start to be useful. Limited downgrade targets, fallen premiums to be bought, bye to be survived. Not having a plan, well, those are all harder. 

Not that the plans will matter of course. 

Well, probably, no plan survives contact with Sunday Superoach. If that long. On the other hand, not having a plan is usually worse than having one that goes wrong. 

So, what should we be planning for?

Well, um, who to downgrade to and when, who to upgrade to and when, how to survive the byes and maybe even do well in them. Also, an overall plan for how to build you team. 

Do you have such a plan? Plans? 

Well, yeah. How good, I dunno, but I have some. 

Share?

Well, I am trying to fix the worst player playing first. Get bad scoring guys off the field. Not guys having a bad week or two but guys who I do and will not want. So, cows are the first to look at, along with injured guys I want to drop. 

Like Tom  Stewart? 

Toooom!  Stewaaaart!!!  Slowly I turn, step by step, Inch by Inch…

Do something!!! 

….Ok, I hadn’t expected you to throw a bag of pumpkin seeds at him, but he did stop. 

It hurts, but it’s a happy hurt 

Um, so yes, like, you know who, who looks likely to drop and not score and blargh. But, maybe not Bergman, who might well do well again?

What’s the difference?

About 9 years. 

But, aside from weird cases, like, you know who, I am not doing sideways trades or using non cows to upgrade from. Brought in cheaper guys like Long, Maric, and Ward, Holding Oliver and Callaghan, trying to bring in player who can make cash or are fallen premiums, and constantly replacing the weakest links. 

Is that a good plan?

No idea! But, it is my plan, and I feel happier having 21 non cows and just two of Z Reid, SPP, and Levi on field. I missed Naicos but kept Roberts. Was I right, dunno. Were people who swapped Robest to get Naicos right? Also dunno. I bet some were and some were not and it depends on the rest of the team and cash and all that. But, having a plan has made it easier to know what do to and why I want to do stuff. I want The Bont sooo much, but I know I can;t pay that much and I can’t add another R12 bye player anyway. 

Too Many?

Well, now. But SPP will go, leaving me 6, and I can handle that as long as I don;t bring in someone else with R12. I did get Xerri, because his price was so good and I was willing to have 6, but now I am only looking at guys with other byes, so my future self does not hate me.

Again I have fallen into talking about my own team, but it is an easy way to illustrate what I am thinking without doing lots of research, and I am not fond of needless work. Sorry about that. 

Any other stuff?

I am really bad ad finishing my teams, and this year it looks extra hard. So, keeping someone like Cerra, who many people are planning to trade out, because by the time I have upgraded Long and Ward, I worry I won;t be able to do better than Cerra, so keeping him saves a trade. 

But that’s you and not everyone. 

Right! Some people have a good plan of trading him before his bye,and may need to in order to handle R12, so no reason to mess up that plan. 

Just have a plan. 

Right. Limits provide structure. Goes for stuff like Supercoach as well as other creative things. 

But what about the Zen of Supercoach? You like Supercoach Zen!

(Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeak…..) 

Well, I do think we need to be responsive to events and not try to force plans.  You can’t plan on having a defender rookie to downgrade to 4 weeks from now, there is no way to know that. But, we know who has played one game and who has played two games. So, when we get that date we respond to that and plan based on that the Supercoach gods provide. 

But have a plan! I have a cunning plan…. 

 

 

 

Defenders

 

Z Reid: Still growing. If he can keep up decent scores he should shoot up the week that 38 goes out of his three round average. Pretty decent on field risk.  

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1	45	119,900
2	36	119,900
3	88	119,900
4		163,100
5	104	163,100
6	38	220,700
7	90	264,700
8	66.8	298,400
9	66.8	306,677	8,277	8,277
10	66.8	325,527	18,850	27,127
11	66.8	329,239	3,712	30,839
12	66.8	331,984	2,745	33,584
13	66.8	334,014	2,030	35,614
14	66.8	335,515	1,501	37,115
15	66.8	336,626	1,110	38,226

 

Trainor:  If you held keep holding. 

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		133,500
1	50	133,500
2	24	133,500
3	90	133,500
4	82	156,200
5	80	201,400
6	2	259,500
7	66	264,200
8	56.3	260,800
9	56.3	247,728	-13,072	-13,072
10	56.3	262,026	14,298	1,226
11	56.3	268,312	6,285	7,512
12	56.3	272,959	4,648	12,159
13	56.3	276,397	3,437	15,597
14	56.3	278,938	2,542	18,138
15	56.3	280,818	1,880	20,018

 

Prior: His fate depends a lot on his next score. Might be the guy to go down back next week.  

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		169,200
1	50	169,200
2	57	169,200
3	78	169,200
4		163,100
5	54	163,100
6	92	235,500
7	43	273,000
8	62.3	285,500
9	62.3	298,241	12,741	12,741
10	62.3	294,567	-3,674	9,067
11	62.3	300,384	5,818	14,884
12	62.3	304,687	4,302	19,187
13	62.3	307,868	3,181	22,368
14	62.3	310,221	2,353	24,721
15	62.3	311,960	1,740	26,460

 

Bice: Looks like a possible D6. At least the last defender upgraded. 

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	52	113,500
2	96	113,500
3		113,500
4	124	113,500
5	89	203,400
6	79	286,100
7	101	340,400
8	90.2	370,800
9	90.2	393,473	22,673	22,673
10	90.2	415,170	21,697	44,370
11	90.2	426,432	11,262	55,632
12	90.2	434,760	8,328	63,960
13	90.2	440,919	6,159	70,119
14	90.2	445,474	4,554	74,674
15	90.2	448,842	3,368	78,042

 

Connor O’Sullivan: That 95 reset his breakeven, so a hold for two more weeks looks like. 

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		148,700
1	48	148,700
2	88	148,700
3	77	148,700
4	103	203,900
5	42	268,200
6	54	295,400
7	95	306,400
8	72.4	310,500
9	72.4	327,366	16,866	16,866
10	72.4	347,973	20,608	37,473
11	72.4	353,248	5,275	42,748
12	72.4	357,149	3,901	46,649
13	72.4	360,034	2,885	49,534
14	72.4	362,167	2,133	51,667
15	72.4	363,745	1,578	53,245

 

Finn O’Sullivan: Off to Moo-Ron Mountain. 

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		199,000
1	51	199,000
2	42	199,000
3	44	199,000
4		207,400
5	69	207,400
6	28	221,200
7	50	225,700
8	47.3	225,700
9	47.3	222,234	-3,466	-3,466
10	47.3	228,206	5,972	2,506
11	47.3	231,445	3,239	5,745
12	47.3	233,841	2,395	8,141
13	47.3	235,612	1,771	9,912
14	47.3	236,922	1,310	11,222
15	47.3	237,890	969	12,190

 

 

Midfielders

 

Knevitt:  Did not play

M Reid:  In the words of ET, “Oooowwww….”

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		131,500
1	50	131,500
2	75	131,500
3	106	131,500
4	73	199,100
5	58	258,500
6	82	294,900
7	35	312,000
8	68.4	308,200
9	68.4	309,772	1,572	1,572
10	68.4	304,944	-4,828	-3,256
11	68.4	316,131	11,187	7,931
12	68.4	324,403	8,273	16,203
13	68.4	330,521	6,118	22,321
14	68.4	335,045	4,524	26,845
15	68.4	338,390	3,345	30,190

 

Lindsay:  Those who held have been rewarded 

 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,500
1	86	158,500
2	78	158,500
3	9	158,500
4		193,400
5	48	193,400
6	55	202,000
7	78	198,700
8	59.0	227,000
9	59.0	252,626	25,626	25,626
10	59.0	273,342	20,716	46,342
11	59.0	280,274	6,932	53,274
12	59.0	285,401	5,126	58,401
13	59.0	289,191	3,791	62,191
14	59.0	291,995	2,803	64,995
15	59.0	294,068	2,073	67,068

 

Moraes:  Sure would be nice if he put up just one more high score and avoided disaster for two weeks after. Yup, sure would be. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2	52	113,500
3	94	113,500
4	43	113,500
5	42	166,800
6	30	201,800
7	55	199,900
8	52.7	204,100
9	52.7	211,706	7,606	7,606
10	52.7	227,337	15,631	23,237
11	52.7	237,865	10,529	33,765
12	52.7	245,652	7,786	41,552
13	52.7	251,409	5,758	47,309
14	52.7	255,667	4,258	51,567
15	52.7	258,816	3,149	54,716

 

Lalor:  He looks ready to harvest. If he toned up once he can again, but he has lots of bad games too. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		203,500
1	74	203,500
2	39	203,500
3	45	203,500
4	112	220,759
5		248,300
6	70	248,300
7	46	283,800
8	64.3	310,700
9	64.3	309,372	-1,328	-1,328
10	64.3	305,888	-3,484	-4,812
11	64.3	311,405	5,517	705
12	64.3	315,485	4,080	4,785
13	64.3	318,502	3,017	7,802
14	64.3	320,734	2,231	10,034
15	64.3	322,383	1,650	11,683

 

Long:  Sure would be nice if he keeps this up until his bye. Since he is 22 and doing well, that seems possible, no jinkx. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	30	200,900
1	113	200,900
2	57	200,900
3		240,000
4	26	240,000
5	114	263,000
6	96	280,600
7	87	311,600
8	82.2	361,900
9	82.2	384,684	22,784	22,784
10	82.2	395,427	10,742	33,527
11	82.2	401,237	5,810	39,337
12	82.2	405,534	4,297	43,634
13	82.2	408,711	3,177	46,811
14	82.2	411,061	2,350	49,161
15	82.2	412,798	1,738	50,898

 

Rucks

Flynn:  Like I have anything to add to the flood of discussion about him! Hold and eventually sell. But that’s news to nobody! 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		261,900
1	87	261,900
2		261,900
3		261,900
4		261,900
5		261,900
6	141	261,900
7	105	261,900
8	111.0	341,100
9	111.0	409,843	68,743	68,743
10	111.0	447,435	37,592	106,335
11	111.0	477,883	30,448	136,783
12	111.0	500,399	22,516	159,299
13	111.0	517,050	16,651	175,950
14	111.0	529,364	12,313	188,264
15	111.0	538,469	9,106	197,369

 

Forwards

Hugo Garcia:  Ok, being subbed out for, um, something, was not on my Hugo Bingo card. So, crud. He might ton up again, but I don’t feel he is safe to hold at this point, just from his previous score fluctuations. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		245,800
1	54	245,800
2	25	245,800
3	99	245,800
4	54	260,000
5	84	269,800
6	59	303,300
7	21	311,100
8	56.6	302,600
9	56.6	284,063	-18,537	-18,537
10	56.6	269,283	-14,780	-33,317
11	56.6	274,056	4,773	-28,544
12	56.6	277,586	3,530	-25,014
13	56.6	280,196	2,610	-22,404
14	56.6	282,126	1,930	-20,474
15	56.6	283,554	1,427	-19,046

 

Levi Ashcroft:  Has more money to make, not in a rush to sell. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	87	221,700
5	90	249,100
6	89	277,400
7	68	322,500
8	75.1	347,800
9	75.1	359,679	11,879	11,879
10	75.1	362,346	2,667	14,546
11	75.1	367,472	5,126	19,672
12	75.1	371,262	3,790	23,462
13	75.1	374,065	2,803	26,265
14	75.1	376,138	2,073	28,338
15	75.1	377,671	1,533	29,871

 

Davidson:  Not a lot of risk to one more week of holding to see how he does but looks like he is a good choice to be upgraded / harvested.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	39	113,500
2	72	113,500
3	129	113,500
4	54	189,800
5	61	252,100
6	82	293,200
7	51	303,700
8	69.7	310,400
9	69.7	319,030	8,630	8,630
10	69.7	319,989	958	9,589
11	69.7	328,959	8,970	18,559
12	69.7	335,593	6,634	25,193
13	69.7	340,498	4,906	30,098
14	69.7	344,126	3,628	33,726
15	69.7	346,808	2,683	36,408

 

Kako: Has a job, has DPP, Has  Job Has DPP, still gonna make money, hold on, hold on….

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		149,500
1	62	149,500
2	34	149,500
3	62	149,500
4		163,100
5	38	163,100
6	55	191,700
7	49	210,200
8	50.0	218,300
9	50.0	229,417	11,117	11,117
10	50.0	235,431	6,014	17,131
11	50.0	240,320	4,889	22,020
12	50.0	243,935	3,615	25,635
13	50.0	246,608	2,673	28,308
14	50.0	248,585	1,977	30,285
15	50.0	250,047	1,462	31,747

 

Sam PP:  

Week before last week:  Voted most likely to be sold after two more rounds. Unless he tons up again. 

Last week: Tonned up again! So, once more voted most likely to be sold after two more rounds. Unless he tons up again. 

Last week: Technically did not ton up again but a 98, so, wow! I suspect that he will need to be sold the first week he has a bad score, since that will tank his BE. We shall see. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,500
1	18	180,500
2	83	180,500
3	48	180,500
4	74	199,000
5	101	236,800
6	106	272,700
7	98	325,700
8	75.4	375,800
9	75.4	401,260	25,460	25,460
10	75.4	406,591	5,331	30,791
11	75.4	400,569	-6,022	24,769
12	75.4	396,116	-4,453	20,316
13	75.4	392,823	-3,293	17,023
14	75.4	390,388	-2,435	14,588
15	75.4	388,587	-1,801	12,787

 

Stone: 

Last week: Oh  gosh. I mean, like soon will be off to Moo-ron Mountain. 

This week: Apparently he did not want to go to Moo-Ron Mountain. Well, nobody ever dos, but he did something about it. Probably two weeks, and if he does it again maybe even more. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	64	199,900
1	42	199,900
2		199,900
3	46	199,900
4	29	155,600
5	39	166,000
6	40	176,600
7	78	175,200
8	45.7	199,000
9	45.7	219,412	20,412	20,412
10	45.7	237,008	17,596	38,008
11	45.7	235,747	-1,261	36,747
12	45.7	234,815	-933	35,815
13	45.7	234,125	-690	35,125
14	45.7	233,615	-510	34,615
15	45.7	233,238	-377	34,238

 

Curtain: Also looking like he is heading for Moo-Ron Mountain. Lots of those and sooner than usual it feels. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,600
1	26	158,600
2	82	158,600
3	90	158,600
4	65	204,500
5	42	254,900
6	48	274,600
7	41	271,400
8	56.3	258,700
9	56.3	255,446	-3,254	-3,254
10	56.3	256,697	1,251	-2,003
11	56.3	264,371	7,673	5,671
12	56.3	270,045	5,674	11,345
13	56.3	274,241	4,196	15,541
14	56.3	277,344	3,103	18,644
15	56.3	279,639	2,295	20,939

 

 

 

Dodgy Advice: Might be a good week to go early on Hustwaite. Not many downgrade targets so be sure you do not miss any.

Prep for incoming fallen premiums in future weeks. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!