Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

So, Madden to the Fwd line to make room for Briggs? I am totally doing that.  Just a one off just in case people hadn’t though of that.

Another one off, I am not the only one to notice that the BEs shown for player with a bye this week are wrong.  They seem to take the zero for the bye into account somehow. I am too lazy to figure out how they are wrong, just that they are.  You can use the below numbers as a guide.  My projections run anywhere between $100-$1000 off once the new weeks numbers are out, with the byes being extra wonky.

Not sure I have game useful advice this week. Mostly, don’t give up. Luck was always a big part of the game, and now with the sub rule and extra injuries and MRO antics, well…I have felt not very in control. Made some good calls and some bad ones, but a lot of good call this year ended up not working out. So, keep going, and plan as best you can and, after all, someone has to win, right?

Mostly trading will revolve around getting 18 on field until the byes are over, but still, hopefully the number help.

Here are the updated charts.

Weeks left	Cash	Points	Make up 100
12	$100,000	100.0	8.3
11	$109,091	109.1	9.1
10	$120,000	120.0	10.0
9	$133,333	133.3	11.1
8	$150,000	150.0	12.5
7	$171,429	171.4	14.3
6	$200,000	200.0	16.7
5	$240,000	240.0	20.0
4	$300,000	300.0	25.0
3	$400,000	400.0	33.3
2	$600,000	600.0	50.0
1	$1,200,000	1200.0	100.0

Weeks left	Cash	Points
12	$100,000	100.0
11	$91,667	91.7
10	$83,333	83.3
9	$75,000	75.0
8	$66,667	66.7
7	$58,333	58.3
6	$50,000	50.0
5	$41,667	41.7
4	$33,333	33.3
3	$25,000	25.0
2	$16,667	16.7
1	$8,333	8.3

Defenders 

Sheezel: Still looking like a keeper. At the very worst keep to R15.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,300
1	114	198,300
2	114	198,300
3	120	198,300
4	111	304,500
5	100	381,800
6	53	431,600
7	107	438,800
8	110	443,200
9	68	452,000
10	112	464,600
11	79	475,400
12	98.9	468,700
13	98.9	478,884	10,184	10,184
14	98.9	480,497	1,613	11,797
15
16	98.9	490,720	10,223	22,020
17	98.9	498,298	7,578	29,598
18	98.9	503,916	5,617	35,216

Ginbey:   Well, the 81 helped.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		171,300
1	85	171,300
2	76	171,300
3	104	171,300
4	40	246,900
5	51	282,500
6	62	296,800
7	39	288,900
8	61	283,100
9	108	284,000
10	35	305,000
11	81	318,200
12	67.5	336,600
13	67.5	332,693	-3,907	-3,907
14
15	67.5	344,513	11,820	7,913
16	67.5	347,133	2,620	10,533
17	67.5	349,075	1,942	12,475
18	67.5	350,514	1,439	13,914

 

McKenna:  Since he covers Rounds 13-15 it might be wroth holding and hoping his price goes back up. Probably won’t go down much more.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1	93	167,500
2	78	167,500
3	57	167,500
4	86	227,300
5	55	268,500
6	57	287,800
7	70	302,600
8	46	306,900
9	35	306,700
10	53	296,000
11	50	279,900
12
13	50.0	269,300
14	50.0	268,997	-303	-303
15	50.0	267,412	-1,585	-1,888
16	50.0	266,237	-1,175	-3,063
17	50.0	265,366	-871	-3,934
18	50.0	264,721	-646	-4,579

Wilmot: Ugh, good score, bad score, good score, bad score, my side, your side, my side, your side…..

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	51	123,900
2	68	123,900
3	69	123,900
4	50	176,900
5	68	215,700
6	39	243,900
7	63	251,600
8	50	263,600
9	75	264,900
10	83	281,700
11	29	302,800
12
13	58.6	308,500
14	58.6	306,051	-2,449	-2,449
15	58.6	293,188	-12,863	-15,312
16	58.6	297,092	3,904	-11,408
17	58.6	299,986	2,894	-8,514
18	58.6	302,131	2,145	-6,369

Cowan:  Did not play. 

L Jones: Ha! So he did have a ton in him. All of us who started with him thought he did, I expect, and now he gets one. Far too late, but still, he did it.  If you do own him, well, hold and rake it in!

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		228,100
1	5	228,100
2	76	228,100
3	68	228,100
4	45	236,300
5	88	260,600
6	53	283,400
7	54	293,900
8	41	306,300
9	66	294,800
10	62	291,700
11	106	292,600
12	60.4	322,200
13	60.4	342,383	20,183	20,183
14	60.4	356,602	14,219	34,402
15
16	60.4	346,447	-10,155	24,247
17	60.4	338,920	-7,527	16,720
18	60.4	333,341	-5,579	11,141

Michalanney: Well, not likely to lose too much more….

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		135,300
1	62	135,300
2	48	135,300
3	82	135,300
4	103	187,200
5	60	244,200
6	50	291,100
7	51	311,800
8	64	304,100
9	48	300,900
10	45	297,200
11	54	291,200
12	60.6	281,800
13	60.6	281,272	-528	-528
14
15	60.6	287,971	6,699	6,171
16	60.6	295,946	7,975	14,146
17	60.6	301,857	5,911	20,057
18	60.6	306,239	4,382	24,439

Buckley:  No idea why his scoring dropped. sell now or hold until his bye.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		205,000
1	76	205,000
2	99	205,000
3	99	205,000
4	80	275,900
5	78	330,300
6	87	360,100
7	91	377,400
8	99	395,800
9	44	419,900
10	62	417,600
11	63	402,200
12	79.8	373,800
13	79.8	369,955	-3,845	-3,845
14	79.8	375,184	5,229	1,384
15
16	79.8	386,687	11,503	12,887
17	79.8	395,213	8,526	21,413
18	79.8	401,533	6,320	27,733

Stocker: Seems like a hold until after the byes.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		216,400
1	74	216,400
2	74	216,400
3	70	216,400
4	77	258,900
5	78	291,100
6	58	317,400
7	69	331,300
8	103	338,500
9	73	356,000
10	75	375,200
11	77	391,600
12
13	75.3	391,300
14	75.3	393,109	1,809	1,809
15	75.3	394,573	1,464	3,273
16	75.3	394,875	302	3,575
17	75.3	395,099	224	3,799
18	75.3	395,265	166	3,965

Mitchell: Still a hold until his bye while he goes up a lot in value. Knock on wood, no jinks.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1		123,900
2		123,900
3		123,900
4		123,900
5	67	123,900
6	79	123,900
7	41	123,900
8	54	176,600
9	74	210,300
10	82	232,700
11	69	267,500
12	66.6	299,600
13	66.6	320,737	21,137	21,137
14
15	66.6	329,409	8,672	29,809
16	66.6	334,735	5,327	35,135
17	66.6	338,684	3,948	39,084
18	66.6	341,610	2,927	42,010

Weddle: Like Mitchell but on steroids. (Insert a different Essendon joke here)

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		130,800
1		130,800
2		130,800
3		130,800
4		130,800
5		130,800
6		130,800
7	38	130,800
8	54	130,800
9	65	130,800
10	114	168,200
11	62	230,200
12	66.6	279,200
13	66.6	316,965	37,765	37,765
14
15	66.6	323,464	6,499	44,264
16	66.6	330,368	6,904	51,168
17	66.6	335,485	5,117	56,285
18	66.6	339,278	3,793	60,078

Atkins: Obscene-gerund unpleasant-afterlife!  Well, so much for his cash generation. He’ll be lucky to avoid the VFL next week.  Since he covers rounds 14 & 15 even if he loses cash holding might be a thing, but ick.  A good downgrade if not named, and maybe even if named.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		203,900
1		203,900
2		203,900
3		203,900
4		203,900
5		203,900
6		203,900
7	89	203,900
8	68	203,900
9	62	203,900
10	102	250,600
11	28	290,700
12	69.8	301,800
13
14	69.8	314,309	12,509	12,509
15	69.8	308,980	-5,329	7,180
16	69.8	323,985	15,005	22,185
17	69.8	335,107	11,122	33,307
18	69.8	343,351	8,244	41,551

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Annoying drop in scoring.  His fate is very team dependent now I think. If you are short of 18 this week he can certainly go.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		202,800
1	55	202,800
2	105	202,800
3	80	202,800
4	75	258,800
5	72	309,400
6	76	331,100
7	103	345,900
8	37	370,200
9	97	373,200
10	124	384,300
11	52	401,500
12
13	79.6	420,400
14	79.6	427,541	7,141	7,141
15	79.6	412,717	-14,824	-7,683
16	79.6	414,260	1,544	-6,140
17	79.6	415,404	1,144	-4,996
18	79.6	416,253	848	-4,147

Baker: A nice 78 to help him go up in value before his bye and sale.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	43	123,900
2	55	123,900
3	95	123,900
4	47	179,200
5	53	222,000
6	59	252,100
7	69	258,500
8	50	273,700
9	58	284,200
10	61	291,100
11	78	292,200
12	60.7	305,100
13	60.7	316,722	11,622	11,622
14	60.7	325,214	8,491	20,114
15
16	60.7	323,676	-1,538	18,576
17	60.7	322,535	-1,140	17,435
18	60.7	321,690	-845	16,590

Hollands:  Injured, so has to go.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		162,300
1	56	162,300
2	71	162,300
3	66	162,300
4	52	207,600
5	65	239,300
6	60	259,400
7	60	272,100
8	51	285,600
9	58	289,900
10	37	291,700
11	42	282,200
12	56.2	270,600
13	56.2	261,881	-8,719	-8,719
14	56.2	264,116	2,235	-6,484
15
16	56.2	272,203	8,088	1,603
17	56.2	278,198	5,995	7,598
18	56.2	282,642	4,444	12,042

Callaghan: At this point he looks like a trade out R15, like a high class Baker.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		244,000
1	101	244,000
2	45	244,000
3	37	244,000
4	65	263,600
5	72	261,700
6	77	271,900
7	88	298,800
8	59	328,300
9	85	345,700
10	68	361,600
11	85	363,800
12	71.1	376,600
13	71.1	380,769	4,169	4,169
14	71.1	385,262	4,492	8,662
15
16	71.1	382,284	-2,977	5,684
17	71.1	380,077	-2,207	3,477
18	71.1	378,442	-1,636	1,842

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Injured, probably has to go.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		174,000
1	55	174,000
2	31	174,000
3	47	174,000
4	88	189,000
5	88	215,100
6	75	259,600
7	43	305,700
8	88	320,000
9	77	331,300
10	75	340,100
11	37	360,600
12	64.0	352,200
13
14	64.0	340,876	-11,324	-11,324
15	64.0	327,494	-13,382	-24,706
16	64.0	329,818	2,324	-22,382
17	64.0	331,540	1,723	-20,660
18	64.0	332,817	1,277	-19,383

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: That 42 not helpful with the money. Probably a hold if he plays though.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,300
1	93	180,300
2	52	180,300
3	89	180,300
4	49	239,500
5	14	263,400
6	48	263,300
7		245,100
8		245,100
9	61	245,100
10	87	237,600
11	42	264,700
12	59.4	281,700
13	59.4	294,261	12,561	12,561
14
15	59.4	291,076	-3,185	9,376
16	59.4	296,626	5,550	14,926
17	59.4	300,740	4,114	19,040
18	59.4	303,789	3,049	22,089

Greene:  Did not play.

Phillipou: Well, he plays over the bad byes and isn’t losing cash….

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,800
1	76	166,800
2	59	166,800
3	51	166,800
4	61	207,700
5	67	231,200
6	39	251,700
7	20	261,800
8	56	251,200
9	43	238,900
10	63	231,200
11	51	244,600
12
13	51.0	251,900
14	51.0	261,541	9,641	9,641
15	51.0	263,245	1,705	11,345
16	51.0	264,509	1,264	12,609
17	51.0	265,446	937	13,546
18	51.0	266,140	694	14,240

Phillips: Whaaaa….?  A 99? Certainly a reward for anyone who still owns him. If he keeps playing he’ll end up making good money for his bye.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,300
1	65	158,300
2		158,300
3	78	158,300
4	67	158,300
5	74	212,400
6	36	255,900
7		269,400
8		269,400
9		269,400
10	70	269,400
11	99	281,000
12	69.9	300,500
13	69.9	331,056	30,556	30,556
14	69.9	353,641	22,585	53,141
15
16	69.9	357,168	3,526	56,668
17	69.9	359,781	2,614	59,281
18	69.9	361,719	1,937	61,219

Chandler: My side, your side….I mean up and down like a..a..help me out here….thing that goes up and down a lot.  Been one of those days. Weeks. Seasons.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	93	123,900
2	71	123,900
3	90	123,900
4	59	206,800
5	56	252,800
6	85	279,400
7	104	297,200
8	57	331,400
9	42	358,000
10	86	357,600
11	31	348,600
12	70.4	329,700
13	70.4	329,351	-349	-349
14
15	70.4	322,001	-7,349	-7,699
16	70.4	334,403	12,402	4,703
17	70.4	343,596	9,193	13,896
18	70.4	350,411	6,814	20,711

Davey:  Did not play

Simpson:   Did not play

Humphrey:   I hate that I do not own him. I felt he was a good pick, twice and still don’t. Argh.  Hold over the byes.

Given	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		184,800
1		184,800
2		184,800
3		184,800
4	39	184,800
5	38	184,800
6	43	184,800
7	-3	191,100
8	64	177,000
9	117	178,800
10	101	213,400
11	90	285,700
12	61.1	350,600
13
14	61.1	374,209	23,609	23,609
15	61.1	373,628	-581	23,028
16	61.1	360,104	-13,524	9,504
17	61.1	350,079	-10,025	-521
18	61.1	342,648	-7,431	-7,952

Dodgy Advice:   Still like Darcy Cameron.  Time to look at players who we have been ignoring but have maybe shown they are not who we thought they were. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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