Cow Talk Round 11–>12

Written by Father Dougal on May 31 2023

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

So, Madden to the Fwd line to make room for Briggs? I am totally doing that.  Just a one off just in case people hadn’t though of that.

Another one off, I am not the only one to notice that the BEs shown for player with a bye this week are wrong.  They seem to take the zero for the bye into account somehow. I am too lazy to figure out how they are wrong, just that they are.  You can use the below numbers as a guide.  My projections run anywhere between $100-$1000 off once the new weeks numbers are out, with the byes being extra wonky.

Not sure I have game useful advice this week. Mostly, don’t give up. Luck was always a big part of the game, and now with the sub rule and extra injuries and MRO antics, well…I have felt not very in control. Made some good calls and some bad ones, but a lot of good call this year ended up not working out. So, keep going, and plan as best you can and, after all, someone has to win, right?

Mostly trading will revolve around getting 18 on field until the byes are over, but still, hopefully the number help.

Here are the updated charts.

Weeks left Cash Points Make up 100
12 $100,000 100.0 8.3
11 $109,091 109.1 9.1
10 $120,000 120.0 10.0
9 $133,333 133.3 11.1
8 $150,000 150.0 12.5
7 $171,429 171.4 14.3
6 $200,000 200.0 16.7
5 $240,000 240.0 20.0
4 $300,000 300.0 25.0
3 $400,000 400.0 33.3
2 $600,000 600.0 50.0
1 $1,200,000 1200.0 100.0
Weeks left Cash Points
12 $100,000 100.0
11 $91,667 91.7
10 $83,333 83.3
9 $75,000 75.0
8 $66,667 66.7
7 $58,333 58.3
6 $50,000 50.0
5 $41,667 41.7
4 $33,333 33.3
3 $25,000 25.0
2 $16,667 16.7
1 $8,333 8.3

Defenders 

Sheezel: Still looking like a keeper. At the very worst keep to R15.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 198,300
1 114 198,300
2 114 198,300
3 120 198,300
4 111 304,500
5 100 381,800
6 53 431,600
7 107 438,800
8 110 443,200
9 68 452,000
10 112 464,600
11 79 475,400
12 98.9 468,700
13 98.9 478,884 10,184 10,184
14 98.9 480,497 1,613 11,797
15
16 98.9 490,720 10,223 22,020
17 98.9 498,298 7,578 29,598
18 98.9 503,916 5,617 35,216

Ginbey:   Well, the 81 helped.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 171,300
1 85 171,300
2 76 171,300
3 104 171,300
4 40 246,900
5 51 282,500
6 62 296,800
7 39 288,900
8 61 283,100
9 108 284,000
10 35 305,000
11 81 318,200
12 67.5 336,600
13 67.5 332,693 -3,907 -3,907
14
15 67.5 344,513 11,820 7,913
16 67.5 347,133 2,620 10,533
17 67.5 349,075 1,942 12,475
18 67.5 350,514 1,439 13,914

 

McKenna:  Since he covers Rounds 13-15 it might be wroth holding and hoping his price goes back up. Probably won’t go down much more.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 167,500
1 93 167,500
2 78 167,500
3 57 167,500
4 86 227,300
5 55 268,500
6 57 287,800
7 70 302,600
8 46 306,900
9 35 306,700
10 53 296,000
11 50 279,900
12
13 50.0 269,300
14 50.0 268,997 -303 -303
15 50.0 267,412 -1,585 -1,888
16 50.0 266,237 -1,175 -3,063
17 50.0 265,366 -871 -3,934
18 50.0 264,721 -646 -4,579

Wilmot: Ugh, good score, bad score, good score, bad score, my side, your side, my side, your side…..

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 51 123,900
2 68 123,900
3 69 123,900
4 50 176,900
5 68 215,700
6 39 243,900
7 63 251,600
8 50 263,600
9 75 264,900
10 83 281,700
11 29 302,800
12
13 58.6 308,500
14 58.6 306,051 -2,449 -2,449
15 58.6 293,188 -12,863 -15,312
16 58.6 297,092 3,904 -11,408
17 58.6 299,986 2,894 -8,514
18 58.6 302,131 2,145 -6,369

Cowan:  Did not play. 

L Jones: Ha! So he did have a ton in him. All of us who started with him thought he did, I expect, and now he gets one. Far too late, but still, he did it.  If you do own him, well, hold and rake it in!

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 228,100
1 5 228,100
2 76 228,100
3 68 228,100
4 45 236,300
5 88 260,600
6 53 283,400
7 54 293,900
8 41 306,300
9 66 294,800
10 62 291,700
11 106 292,600
12 60.4 322,200
13 60.4 342,383 20,183 20,183
14 60.4 356,602 14,219 34,402
15
16 60.4 346,447 -10,155 24,247
17 60.4 338,920 -7,527 16,720
18 60.4 333,341 -5,579 11,141

Michalanney: Well, not likely to lose too much more….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 135,300
1 62 135,300
2 48 135,300
3 82 135,300
4 103 187,200
5 60 244,200
6 50 291,100
7 51 311,800
8 64 304,100
9 48 300,900
10 45 297,200
11 54 291,200
12 60.6 281,800
13 60.6 281,272 -528 -528
14
15 60.6 287,971 6,699 6,171
16 60.6 295,946 7,975 14,146
17 60.6 301,857 5,911 20,057
18 60.6 306,239 4,382 24,439

Buckley:  No idea why his scoring dropped. sell now or hold until his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 205,000
1 76 205,000
2 99 205,000
3 99 205,000
4 80 275,900
5 78 330,300
6 87 360,100
7 91 377,400
8 99 395,800
9 44 419,900
10 62 417,600
11 63 402,200
12 79.8 373,800
13 79.8 369,955 -3,845 -3,845
14 79.8 375,184 5,229 1,384
15
16 79.8 386,687 11,503 12,887
17 79.8 395,213 8,526 21,413
18 79.8 401,533 6,320 27,733

Stocker: Seems like a hold until after the byes.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 216,400
1 74 216,400
2 74 216,400
3 70 216,400
4 77 258,900
5 78 291,100
6 58 317,400
7 69 331,300
8 103 338,500
9 73 356,000
10 75 375,200
11 77 391,600
12
13 75.3 391,300
14 75.3 393,109 1,809 1,809
15 75.3 394,573 1,464 3,273
16 75.3 394,875 302 3,575
17 75.3 395,099 224 3,799
18 75.3 395,265 166 3,965

Mitchell: Still a hold until his bye while he goes up a lot in value. Knock on wood, no jinks.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 123,900
2 123,900
3 123,900
4 123,900
5 67 123,900
6 79 123,900
7 41 123,900
8 54 176,600
9 74 210,300
10 82 232,700
11 69 267,500
12 66.6 299,600
13 66.6 320,737 21,137 21,137
14
15 66.6 329,409 8,672 29,809
16 66.6 334,735 5,327 35,135
17 66.6 338,684 3,948 39,084
18 66.6 341,610 2,927 42,010

Weddle: Like Mitchell but on steroids. (Insert a different Essendon joke here)

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 130,800
1 130,800
2 130,800
3 130,800
4 130,800
5 130,800
6 130,800
7 38 130,800
8 54 130,800
9 65 130,800
10 114 168,200
11 62 230,200
12 66.6 279,200
13 66.6 316,965 37,765 37,765
14
15 66.6 323,464 6,499 44,264
16 66.6 330,368 6,904 51,168
17 66.6 335,485 5,117 56,285
18 66.6 339,278 3,793 60,078

Atkins: Obscene-gerund unpleasant-afterlife!  Well, so much for his cash generation. He’ll be lucky to avoid the VFL next week.  Since he covers rounds 14 & 15 even if he loses cash holding might be a thing, but ick.  A good downgrade if not named, and maybe even if named.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 203,900
1 203,900
2 203,900
3 203,900
4 203,900
5 203,900
6 203,900
7 89 203,900
8 68 203,900
9 62 203,900
10 102 250,600
11 28 290,700
12 69.8 301,800
13
14 69.8 314,309 12,509 12,509
15 69.8 308,980 -5,329 7,180
16 69.8 323,985 15,005 22,185
17 69.8 335,107 11,122 33,307
18 69.8 343,351 8,244 41,551

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Annoying drop in scoring.  His fate is very team dependent now I think. If you are short of 18 this week he can certainly go.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 202,800
1 55 202,800
2 105 202,800
3 80 202,800
4 75 258,800
5 72 309,400
6 76 331,100
7 103 345,900
8 37 370,200
9 97 373,200
10 124 384,300
11 52 401,500
12
13 79.6 420,400
14 79.6 427,541 7,141 7,141
15 79.6 412,717 -14,824 -7,683
16 79.6 414,260 1,544 -6,140
17 79.6 415,404 1,144 -4,996
18 79.6 416,253 848 -4,147

Baker: A nice 78 to help him go up in value before his bye and sale.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 43 123,900
2 55 123,900
3 95 123,900
4 47 179,200
5 53 222,000
6 59 252,100
7 69 258,500
8 50 273,700
9 58 284,200
10 61 291,100
11 78 292,200
12 60.7 305,100
13 60.7 316,722 11,622 11,622
14 60.7 325,214 8,491 20,114
15
16 60.7 323,676 -1,538 18,576
17 60.7 322,535 -1,140 17,435
18 60.7 321,690 -845 16,590

Hollands:  Injured, so has to go.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 162,300
1 56 162,300
2 71 162,300
3 66 162,300
4 52 207,600
5 65 239,300
6 60 259,400
7 60 272,100
8 51 285,600
9 58 289,900
10 37 291,700
11 42 282,200
12 56.2 270,600
13 56.2 261,881 -8,719 -8,719
14 56.2 264,116 2,235 -6,484
15
16 56.2 272,203 8,088 1,603
17 56.2 278,198 5,995 7,598
18 56.2 282,642 4,444 12,042

Callaghan: At this point he looks like a trade out R15, like a high class Baker.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 244,000
1 101 244,000
2 45 244,000
3 37 244,000
4 65 263,600
5 72 261,700
6 77 271,900
7 88 298,800
8 59 328,300
9 85 345,700
10 68 361,600
11 85 363,800
12 71.1 376,600
13 71.1 380,769 4,169 4,169
14 71.1 385,262 4,492 8,662
15
16 71.1 382,284 -2,977 5,684
17 71.1 380,077 -2,207 3,477
18 71.1 378,442 -1,636 1,842

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Injured, probably has to go.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 174,000
1 55 174,000
2 31 174,000
3 47 174,000
4 88 189,000
5 88 215,100
6 75 259,600
7 43 305,700
8 88 320,000
9 77 331,300
10 75 340,100
11 37 360,600
12 64.0 352,200
13
14 64.0 340,876 -11,324 -11,324
15 64.0 327,494 -13,382 -24,706
16 64.0 329,818 2,324 -22,382
17 64.0 331,540 1,723 -20,660
18 64.0 332,817 1,277 -19,383

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: That 42 not helpful with the money. Probably a hold if he plays though.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 180,300
1 93 180,300
2 52 180,300
3 89 180,300
4 49 239,500
5 14 263,400
6 48 263,300
7 245,100
8 245,100
9 61 245,100
10 87 237,600
11 42 264,700
12 59.4 281,700
13 59.4 294,261 12,561 12,561
14
15 59.4 291,076 -3,185 9,376
16 59.4 296,626 5,550 14,926
17 59.4 300,740 4,114 19,040
18 59.4 303,789 3,049 22,089

Greene:  Did not play.

Phillipou: Well, he plays over the bad byes and isn’t losing cash….

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 166,800
1 76 166,800
2 59 166,800
3 51 166,800
4 61 207,700
5 67 231,200
6 39 251,700
7 20 261,800
8 56 251,200
9 43 238,900
10 63 231,200
11 51 244,600
12
13 51.0 251,900
14 51.0 261,541 9,641 9,641
15 51.0 263,245 1,705 11,345
16 51.0 264,509 1,264 12,609
17 51.0 265,446 937 13,546
18 51.0 266,140 694 14,240

Phillips: Whaaaa….?  A 99? Certainly a reward for anyone who still owns him. If he keeps playing he’ll end up making good money for his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 158,300
1 65 158,300
2 158,300
3 78 158,300
4 67 158,300
5 74 212,400
6 36 255,900
7 269,400
8 269,400
9 269,400
10 70 269,400
11 99 281,000
12 69.9 300,500
13 69.9 331,056 30,556 30,556
14 69.9 353,641 22,585 53,141
15
16 69.9 357,168 3,526 56,668
17 69.9 359,781 2,614 59,281
18 69.9 361,719 1,937 61,219

Chandler: My side, your side….I mean up and down like a..a..help me out here….thing that goes up and down a lot.  Been one of those days. Weeks. Seasons.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 93 123,900
2 71 123,900
3 90 123,900
4 59 206,800
5 56 252,800
6 85 279,400
7 104 297,200
8 57 331,400
9 42 358,000
10 86 357,600
11 31 348,600
12 70.4 329,700
13 70.4 329,351 -349 -349
14
15 70.4 322,001 -7,349 -7,699
16 70.4 334,403 12,402 4,703
17 70.4 343,596 9,193 13,896
18 70.4 350,411 6,814 20,711

Davey:  Did not play

Simpson:   Did not play

Humphrey:   I hate that I do not own him. I felt he was a good pick, twice and still don’t. Argh.  Hold over the byes.

Given Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 184,800
1 184,800
2 184,800
3 184,800
4 39 184,800
5 38 184,800
6 43 184,800
7 -3 191,100
8 64 177,000
9 117 178,800
10 101 213,400
11 90 285,700
12 61.1 350,600
13
14 61.1 374,209 23,609 23,609
15 61.1 373,628 -581 23,028
16 61.1 360,104 -13,524 9,504
17 61.1 350,079 -10,025 -521
18 61.1 342,648 -7,431 -7,952

Dodgy Advice:   Still like Darcy Cameron.  Time to look at players who we have been ignoring but have maybe shown they are not who we thought they were. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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