With the first round of the byes out of the way I’ve found myself still hovering inside the top 200, hopefully everyone is well setup for the byes and whatever carnage gets thrown our way.
Defenders
Dan houston (COL, $437.1k, (-$138.5k), 88.6 AVG, 79 BE) quickly going to touch on a few others before getting to Dan the Man. The Cats have a well documented great fixture-run. Tom Stewart if he remains healthy should be able to suffice as a discount D6, otherwise Callum Mills off the bye could also be a play depending on his role this week v the Tigers, however I personally wouldn’t be going early on him. Max Holmes with a five round average of 107.3 is definitely one to consider along with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera off the bye next week for those shopping in that 500k range. As for Houston, Collingwood have the highest rated DVP (courtesy of DFSAustralia) for designated kickers. And with that comes a heavily discounted Dan Houston who many either started or traded in last year for a much larger price tag last season. Has the two-time All Australian finally found his footing in a new side, or was last week’s score against the Hawks an aberration? One of the main issues is the kick-in reduction this season along with a largely reduced role playing in the Pies system. I think the best play would be to assess against the Dees with the moderate breakeven, and then potentially grab him post-bye.
Backing it up…
Harry Sheezel, 517k, 169 BE
Dayne Zorko, 549k, 144 BE
Do it for Wardy.
Midfielders
Jye Caldwell (ESS, $440.5k, (-$65.8k), 96.3 AVG, 21 BE) after crunching the numbers in last week’s Fallen Premiums, Caldwell was brought into my team even though the Lions looked to be a less than ideal matchup on-paper. And while we discussed him in thorough detail last week, we can quickly touch on him again. An average of 114.6 points (6 game sample size) when Caldwell has surpassed the 60% CBA threshold, with that trend did continuing last season as well. The Dons are actually have a strong coalface when fully fit, evident by them beating the Lions in clearance this past Thursday. Some may have slight concerns regarding Parish returning, but with Merrett being utilised where needed, Nic Martin likewise, it would be shocking to see Caldwell not maintaining this largely inside role. As for the game against the Lions, a less than ideal first half, with only the 11 touches, 2 tackles, but a monster third quarter, followed by a Dunkley tag and extended time on the line in the fourth. Tags would be more than likely to hit Merrett and Martin well ahead of Jye, who hopefully can be a strong premium for those that opt to bring him in.
Patrick Cripps (CAR, $528.9k, (-$66.4k), 101 AVG, 96 BE) while the two-time Brownlow Medalist hasn’t exactly lit the SC world on fire this season, he has tonned in 8/11 games offering some great consistency. There’s also popular pre-season selection Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh (who’s become the 4th banana) and George Hewett to consider. With the fantastic run they have incoming, Dons, Eagles and North over the next three weeks. Carlton now playing for their season, if anyone will step up, it’s the Blues skipper, definitely one to consider. Now if I was personally shopping for a Blues player to get in on the fixture (I own Adam Cerra but personally wouldn’t be trading him in if I didn’t own him), I’d either wait a week for Hewett to bottom out in price, look at Crippa, or my preferred choice, grab Tom De Koning who we’ll get to shortly. The other mid premium that is getting some attention off the bye is Luke Davies-Uniacke who generally finishes strong post-bye, but if I was to choose between Cripps and LDU, I’d chase the upside in fixture with Cripps.
Zak Butters (PTA, $585.9k, (-$63k), 118.4 AVG, 197 BE) not one to trade in this week playing GWS who will utilise Toby Bedford to nullify the 2023 AFLCA player of the year. I’d almost say he’s near must-have when/if Butters drops below 540k, and it’s all about timing when it comes to bringing him in. GWS (Bedford), Demons (?), Sydney (Jordon), you could bring him in next week depending on just how much of an effect Toby Bedford has, otherwise there’s no real rush with the immediate fixture to bring him in unless that breakeven gets below the 100 mark. Figure out a loose plan on how and when you want to grab the 24 year old, and get ready to make it happen!
Timberrr…
Adam Treloar, 628k, 169 BE
Josh Dunkley, 536k, 153 BE
George Hewett, 558k, 150 BE
Rucks
Tom De Koning (STK CAR, $528k, (-$19.1k), 110.3 AVG, 131 BE) a player I started, traded out, and the same week I traded out made a plan on bringing back post-bye. Goldstein and Flynn over the next two weeks, along with this fixture run (courtesy of DFS Australia I’ll shade the fixtures in their correspondent colour).
Essendon | West Coast | North Melbourne | Port Adelaide | Collingwood | Brisbane | Melbourne | Hawthorn | Fremantle | Gold Coast | Port Adelaide | Essendon
Tom De Koning since 2024 as a sole ruck is averaging 114 points (20 game sample size), and where else are you finding a 110+ averaging player for sub 530k… And regarding Marc Pittonet, I would personally be shocked if he was to be named alongside TDK in the coming weeks. His sole appearance this season when TDK missed with a larynx injury, Pittonet got beaten in the HO’s against Grundy 47 to 24, and his around the ground work isn’t quite up to scratch.
Timberrr…
Rowan Marshall, 547k, 183 BE
Tristan Xerri, 731k, 161 BE
Max Gawn, 707k, 159 BE
Forwards
Sam Darcy (WBD, $497k, ($70k), 93.7 AVG, 194 BE) while Darcy isn’t even playing this week, I think this is one that non-owners hunting for a cheap F6 should factor and pencil in when the big fella bottoms out to around the 420k mark in 3 weeks time. Up until the STK game where Sam hurt his knee, he was going at an average of 109.2, and with the Dogs having quite the favourable fixture run, including majority of their games at Marvel, this is definitely a pick I’d be keeping a close eye on. If you’re after a forward this week, Matt Kennedy is an interesting POD, albeit the effect of a healthy Adam Treloar on the midfield dynamic is yet to be seen. Could be a play for those wanting to get in on the Bulldogs fixture run sooner.
Forward thinking…
Chad Warner, 510k, 162 BE
Jason Horne-Francis, 500k, 158 BE
Jack Macrae, 517k, 153 BE
Izak Rankine, 489k, 143 BE
Think Cripps looks like the best Mid of those who are coming of the bye.
He also averaged 106.2 last year pre bye and 116.1 post bye, but maybe I’m just trying to justify my poor trades which have made me look for budget options.
For the under 550k mids, I’d also agree.
Think a 105-110 average is very feasible
Great write up
Love the “crossed out” St K after TDK’s name 🙂
Am trying to get Bont this week & Butters next week (or the week after).
My team just looks so much better with those two in it