Fallen Premiums – Round 14, 2024

Written by Abs on June 12 2024

Kanga Kanga Kanga, Roo Roo Roo. As someone rocking way too many North players in my SC side, hopefully their performance is a sign of things to come. A shorter Fallen Premiums this week. The likes of Errol Gulden, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Josh Dunkley, Brodie Grundy who were mentioned last week all remain ‘good buys’.

I’ll pre-emptively also thank @Jaiden_Popowski (statsbyjaiden.com.au) for the figures regarding transitional & stoppage data. While it is fantasy data, it does help significantly with assessing where a player is earning their points and which teams are restrictive / friendly in which category.

I was just as disgusted Trac… (btw, there was around 10 other players I could have added)


Dan Houston (PTA, $566k, (-$27.1k), 108.9 AVG, 157 BE) Looking to be a somewhat popular trade-in this week, and while I started him, I personally am 50/50 on if he’s a good trade-in this week. Firstly, Houston had a dream fixture heading into the bye, plenty of home games at Adelaide Oval in conjunction with non-tagging, friendly transitional match-ups. Houston is only averaging 27.6% of his points from stoppages, so for the following fixture difficulty, I’ll be focussing on transitional scoring. And before I get into the fixture difficulty, I will just note that Houston’s sub-tons thus far have come against: Adelaide 93 SC (4th hardest), Geelong 89 SC (6th hardest), North 77 (5th easiest), Carlton 98 (the hardest transitional matchup). Besides the North game, there’s no surprises the tougher transitional matchups have resulted in subpar scoring. As for Lions and GWS who he is yet to play, but make up the remaining top 5 hardest matchups, guess who he plays in the next two weeks…

GWS (5th hardest) | Lions @AO (3rd hardest) | Saints (2nd easiest) | Dogs @AO (8th hardest) | Suns (6th easiest) | Tigers @AO (easiest) | Carlton (the hardest) | Swans @AO  (middle of the pack | Jordon tag…) | Dees (3rd easiest), Crows @AO (4th hardest) | Freo (4th easiest). And finally, the scoring uptick in home games which was apparent last season is also readily apparent in 2024. Houston is averaging 103.7 away from home and 111.5 @AO this season. 5/11 of the remaining games being at Adelaide Oval as oppose to the 8/12 games Port have had there heading into the bye. So while I think Houston is a decent buy this week, but by no means a must-have.

Backing it up…
Nick Daicos, 649k, 161 BE
Nic Newman, 546k, 161 BE
Dan Houston, 566k, 157 BE
Luke Ryan, 667k, 135 BE


Zak Butters ($630.1k, (-$6k), 121.4 AVG, 159 BE) firstly, I will mention any that there is currently Brisbane (Jarrod Berry), St Kilda (Marcus Windhager), and Carlton (Alex Cincotta) all remaining in the run home for Port Adelaide. However, Connor Rozee (who will be discussed at a hefty discount next week) and Jason Horne-Francis both could either directly receive the tag, or have the respective tagger swung onto them due to their influence on the game. I’ll skip the fixtures here, as I believe at the price, off his bye Butters is an amazing buy this week, but for those trying to scrape every last cent, waiting a week or two isn’t a bad idea either.

Limbo land…
Connor Rozee, 467k, 182 BE
Jordan Dawson, 596k, 177 BE
Caleb Serong, 629k, 176 BE
Zak Butters, 630k, 159 BE
Tom Liberatore, 581k, 157 BE
Christian Petracca, 519k, 155 BE*
Patrick Cripps, 552k, 146 BE
Touk Miller, 529k, 144 BE
Josh Dunkley, 585k, 140 BE


Sean Darcy (FRE, $537.6k, (-$51.8k), 98.8 AVG, 109 BE) A recent article in ‘The West’ has noted Darcy has trimmed up, quit drinking frothies in a bid to get his body right. In 2023 Shrek averaged 117.75 SC points in the 12 games in which he had 70%+ of the ruck duties. As for 2024? Well excluding the game where Darcy was subbed due to injury (Richmond), Shrek is averaging 103.75, albeit clearly having been managed in certain games. The ruck-contest percentage is 48% (excluding the sub-affected game, Shrek is sitting at 62.5%), and with added continuity and fitness, you’d assume this figure only increases. Fixture-wise, Darcy has largely been fixture-proof, but with Tim English on the horizon this weekend, an immediate net-gain looms. Summarised, Sean Darcy is for those chasing a high-risk, high-reward type of play. Is the injury risk worth the reward?

Max Gawn, 678k, 170 BE
Rowan Marshall, 568k, 131 BE


Footy/SC is a cruel game sometimes.

Jy Simpkin (NTH, $361.9k, (-$81.5k), 66.8 AVG, 31 BE) Firstly, the fact the 129 points this past weekend  was Simpkin’s first score above 70 this season is a major concern and reason to monitor both his CBA’s, role and score this weekend before hopping on. 65% CBA’s against the Eagles (and his second above 60%), however how much of that slight uptick was due to LDU receiving attention from Dom Sheed and having reduced on-ball time? The positives from Simpkin come from proven history, a solid performance, potential value, and of course as noted last week, North Melbourne’s fixture run. Ultimately while the breakeven is low, for those interested I highly advise waiting another week before committing.

Forward thinking…
Dayne Zorko, 594k, 187 BE
Isaac Heeney, 598k, 141 BE
Luke Jackson, 520k, 140 BE
Gryan Miers, 425k, 140 BE


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12 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 14, 2024”

  1. Great article again Abs

    Reckon Zorko could almost get his break even of 187 this week against the Saints at the Gabba 🙂

    Am looking to pick up either Zorko or Jackson a bit cheaper next week – so somewhere around 80 to 100 points this week for those two would be nice for this non owner

    Also wondering if I just might be able to get Rozee really cheap as a M9 – but should probably finish my D6 & F5 / F6 first

    Would be nice to loop Rozee with underperforming lads like Tom Green & Oliver though


  2. Seriously, since when is Butters at $630K (a fraction under his starting price) and a BE of 159 a Fallen Premo?


    1. He’s not, but with the limited options (players either on the bye, or have one game before hitting a bye), and players discussed last week there really isn’t much there.

      Rozee was my ideal choice but his breakeven is still insane.


  3. TU Simpkin @ 360k
    TD Fischer @ 520k
    I’m thinking that it can take a while to recover from a heavy knock and a lot of Simpkins early scores have been affected by this. Conversely is it also possible that Simpkins renewed zest for scoring will affect Fischer scores in the long run?


  4. ……..Things (IMO) to be weary off….

    The returns of McKercher and Powell next week….

    Re Fisher and Sexton…….



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