Fallen Premiums – Round 7, 2024

Back to reality everyone, best 22 looms, and carnage has already struck with Harley Reid being managed and Kane McAullife being omitted…

I’m currently sitting at 408 overall, and with Walsh not in my sights this week, I can feel that potentially slipping…

Defenders

Bailey Dale (WBD, $422.6k, (-$85k), 86.2 AVG, 54 BE) With a massive 170+ score now in his scoring cycle, Dale suddenly offers a high-risk, high-reward option in our defensive lines, with an added safety net of some potential cash-gen. Scoring just a 79 and 85 in the next two games v Freo and Hawks, sees Dale make 50k. Unlike the rest of the players on today’s slate, I really am concerned about Richards most likely moving back to defence this week with Libba returning. As we’ll discuss with Jack Macrae, Macca, Sanders and Harmes weren’t the ones replacing Libba, it was Ed Richards. The BE is low, the match-up is definitely friendly, and the safety-net of quick $ makes Dale one to definitely look at. Not for me, but could be a very nice POD, the soon to be re-occurring theme becomes, “can you trust Luke Beveridge?”

Backing it up…
Jack Sinclair, 546k, 150 BE
Tom Stewart, 538k, 137 BE

Midfielders

Jordan Dawson (ADE, $533.6k, (-$114k), 96.2 AVG, 73 BE) apologies in advance for not discussing Newcombe or De Goey this week, I personally feel skimping in the other-lines is the go, not the midfield, unless… Firstly, who could’ve seen this score coming I wonder. No Matt Crouch, and not only does Dawson post his first ton, but also posts a score so juicy coaches are now targeting him. The CBA’s the two previous games were 59%, 48% and then this past game against the Dons the forward role ceased, and 80% CBA’s were given to Dawson. His game as a whole was superb, and could have been even better if not for some dropped marks. The obvious answer here is to wait and see how he goes against North with Crouch back. Does Nicks stick with the mid-time, has Dawson turned a corner with his use? My personal opinion relies more on the fact the Crows have NORTH MELBOURNE. A 110+score is all but guaranteed, and I personally can’t see Nicks shuffling Dawson after a performance that garnered him 8 coaches votes.
Now for the  next data dump and analysis, A shoutout has to be given to @Jaiden_Popowski on Twitter/X who provides a lot for the community:

Dawson was the #1 transition scoring midfielder in 2023, averaging 63.8 points from transition play. For reference, Merrett was second with 62.6 points, Oliver third with 61.1 points. Contrary to popular belief, in 2023 between Rounds 19-24 when Crouch came back into the side, Dawson’s stoppage point average actually spiked by 2.2 points a game. The late season scoring having stalled had to do with his transition scoring (in which he posted his two lowest transition scoring games during that run). The last five games had the crows face-off against these teams Port (2nd hardest transition difficulty), Suns (11th hardest), Lions (4th hardest), Swans (1st hardest), Eagles (third hardest).
As for this season? First round was against the Suns who are the hardest transition scoring team, Cats who are the 4th hardest, Freo who are the 14th (and in-which he butchered the p*** out of the ball, a common theme from his first few games), Dees 8th hardest and then Carlton the 2nd hardest, and a team that a lot of midfielders have been struggling against in general. The next few match-ups aren’t exactly enticing, North is great, but then Dawson and the Crows face Port, Lions, Pies, Eagles who are on the harder side of transition scoring. But post Round 12, the Crows have a very favourable fixture along with soft transition scoring fixtures. Anyway, all that to say, there’s no doubt Dawson is value, and I can’t personally see him averaging anything less than 105 for the season (from here-on out). I don’t think it’s as simple as “wait a week and see what happens with Crouch back.” If you’re keen on Dawson, jump on this week and ride the turbulent immediate fixtures, and if you’re not, pass and value-hunt elsewhere.

Sam Walsh (CAR, $576.8k, 148 AVG, 33 BE) Flagged Walshy last week, and he unsurprisingly delivered another masterpiece alongside skipper Patrick Cripps who was phenomenal. The issue which seems to have been stated as-nauseam is the back flaring up and potentially slowing down due to an interrupted pre-season. Last season Walsh returned in Round 5, averaging 114.8 points in his first 5 games back. Then, due to what could be attributed to fitness issues and a lack of a proper pre-season, Walsh averaged 94 points over the following five games. Post-bye, in games against Freo, Hawks, Port and the Eagles, Walsh only managed a 103.5 average before sitting out 4/5 of the final games of the regular season. There is zero doubt about this man’s ability as a player. If he can maintain his fitness, and skirt any further issues with his back, I have him firmly top 8. But then, glossing over the obvious red-flags is difficult for myself. The obvious upside comes from the immediate cash-gen and scoring, I do think worst case scenario, you get a few games of strong scoring, and the ability to sideways to any premium you’d like. Walsh is proving to be quite a popular selection, and fading him could be incredibly costly, but can you trust him to maintain fitness…

Limbo land…
Tom Green, 591k, 183 BE
Rory Laird, 574k, 174 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 646k, 171 BE
Clayton Oliver, 502k, 160 BE
Christian Petracca, 624k, 157 BE
Zach Merrett, 654k, 156 BE
Connor Rozee, 606k, 156 BE

Rucks

Rowan Marshall (STK, $593.5k, (-$45.6k), 105 AVG, 168 BE) Who’d have thought Tristan Xerri and Brodie Grundy would be in the same realm as Rowan Marshall and Tim English… Not too much to discuss regarding Marshall and the Saints, everyone saw the score from the game on Thursday night… With Tim English available at a cut-price next week, and Marshall here dipping significantly in price, there’s a plethora of options to fill-out your ruck-lines. Gawn seems the stand-out R1, with Grundy, Xerri, English, Marshall and even Meek all being sustainable at R2 for the moment.

Timberrr…
Tim English, 611k, 177 BE
Rowan Marshall, 594k, 168 BE

Forwards

Jack Macrae (WBD, $480k, (-$78.4k), 76.5 AVG, 64 BE) Flagged Macrae last week, and due to a scarcity of options to discuss, and a big score now in his cycle, we’ll discuss Big-Mac again. Here’s what Luke Beveridge had to say about Macrae post-game. “I thought his contest – his hands – his ball security – his creativity – his workmanship with the other inside midfielders was there. I think we got the right balance of what to do with him.” Getting past the fact Macrae has been doing that for what feels like a decade now, I truly believe now that Macca has found fitness and form, that his JS (at least short-term) is strong. Those claiming they want to see Macrae with Libba back in the team doesn’t quite make sense to me, Richards had 70%+ CBA’s and like we mentioned with Bailey Dale, it makes the most sense to shift Richards back to defence, and let Macrae keep his current “pushing up to contest” role. The CBA’s were only 29% against the Dons, and then 34% against the Saints. The role seems consistent to last season in which he did manage around 100-odd points. Again, the only caveat is, can you trust Bevo?

Forward thinking…
Luke Jackson, 531k, 141 BE

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