Fallen Premiums – Round 7, 2025

Hopefully your seasons are all going well, finally cracked the top 1k on my end, hoping not to crash and burn continuing to fade Daicos and the other uber premiums. With the short turnaround into R7, let’s get straight into some of the discount premiums on offer.

It was hard choosing only three players for this image.

Defenders

Tom Stewart (GEE, $441.6k, (-$79.4k), 72.8 AVG, 79 BE) it’s almost blasphemous that Stewart is this cheap and SC’ers aren’t flocking to select him. Removing the injury affected game in which Stewart scored a 9, the five time All-Australian is averaging 94 points for the year, having 2/3 of his full games both equating to a ton. So, why the hesitation? In recent times it just feels like the Stewart selection often comes with complications. The main concern stems from his struggle with injuries, then you’ve got the suspensions, the rise of players like Zach Guthrie and Lawson Humphries, and a disappointing score of only 64 points this past Monday. However, I believe there is significant value in Stewart. Geelong’s last bye in Round 16 offers an opportunity for a corrective trade if required (assuming he remains unscathed til that point…), and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t considering him myself.

Popular trade-outs should be C’d

Backing it up…
Daniel Rioli, 510k, 186 BE
Jack Sinclair, 605k, 180 BE
Sam Flanders, 529k, 173 BE
Dayne Zorko, 546k, 171 BE
Luke Ryan, 507k, 169 BE
Dan Houston, 563k, 149 BE
Harry Sheezel, 568k, 148 BE

Midfielders

Jordan Dawson (ADE, $524.8k, (-$25.5k), 103.3 AVG, 137 BE) The Adelaide skipper finds himself at a hefty discount, and while his known ceiling hasn’t been shown thus far, the two time Malcolm Blight Medalist has been scoring fairly consistently with only a single score below the 95 mark. The immediate fixture isn’t all amazing, however he has shown that massive ceiling having scored 140+ against his next three opposition in recent times (Fremantle, Carlton, Port Adelaide). The CBA’s and role has been relatively consistent, averaging over 80% CBA’s the last three games, some poor use by foot has hurt Jordy’s scoring and also been the difference between his 120’s and the big  140+ scores we’ve seen in past seasons. The breakeven remains high so continuing to monitor doesn’t hurt, but I also have no reservations with anyone trading him in this week, I personally don’t mind him as a smoky VC. 

Josh Dunkley (BRL, $554.3k, (-$48k), 113 AVG, 157 BE) an unusual selection to discuss this week with that large BE, but seeing that over 1,000 SC’ers are opting to trade Dunks out of their sides (and a few are keen to jump on early), here he is. Firstly, Dunks scored 82 points and 90 points last season against the Saints, having to go head to head against Jack Steele is no easy feat and the score obviously reflected that, so for those considering going early here, wait at least the week. For those wanting to jump off the discussion moves forward to next 5 games after the game against the Saints. Gold Coast (142 average in 2024), North (122 points in 2024), Dees (132.5 average in 2024), Hawks (99 points, however the midfield will be gutted without Nash or Day available this time around), Essendon (124 points in 2024), Crows (114.5 average in 2024). I’m personally looking to grab Dunkley next week, (Neale is also completely viable as a selection not having any obvious tags until the byes begin), and would advise all of you to keep both on your watch-lists.

“We have a plan for Daicos” – Chris Fagan (his plan was to VC Nick to win his cash league)

Limbo land…
Jack Steele, 508k, 174 BE
Hayden Young, 546k, 161 BE
Josh Dunkley, 554k, 157 BE
Caleb Serong, 589k, 143 BE

Rucks

Tristan Xerri (NTH, $557.3k, (-$88.6k), 111.3 AVG, 102 BE) after being spared from full training leading up the Sydney and Gold Coast games dealing with a hamstring concern, Xerri supposedly was on the mend and proved it with a large 144 points against TDK and the Blues on Good Friday. The value is supreme, the fixtures begin to open up and there’s no doubt Xerri Pie will be a top 2 ruck. The only issues with the pick in my opinion would be either clogging up your flex (which isn’t a large issue), missing out on Matt Flynn (slightly larger issue but he’s not a must-have), and North having the first bye (my main issue).

Not fifteen, play on.

Timberrr…
Sean Darcy, 529k, 174 BE
Rowan Marshall, 460k, 155 BE

Forwards

Charlie Curnow (CAR, $381.5k, (-$62.7k), 64.4 AVG, 23 BE) like many, I traded in and got burnt by Curnow last season, but at the price there’s validity to the Curnow pick once again. The main selling point would be the potential to loop the two time Coleman Medalist as your F7 long-term, along with his proven scoring prowess (averaging 97.6 points in 2023). The obvious drawbacks stem from the three putrid scores against the Hawks, Bulldogs and Pies, failing to crack even the 60 mark, and it’s not like the Blues will be playing Eagles and North every week! Oh wait, Blues play both of those teams again within the next 8 games. Not a pick I’d personally be bullish on, but for those on a heavy budget and with the end goal of having a high ceiling F7, Curnow does present himself as a viable choice, the bonus being you might even make some nice cash and be able to use Charles as a stepping stone.

Izak Rankine (ADE, $495.1k, (-$26.5k), 100.3 AVG, 116 BE) I’ll save a large write up here, Rankine is sub-500k, and if I was a non-owner I’d be eyeing him up for a spot in my forward line asap. Has yet to truly punish non-owners, and if he remains fit I don’t expect that trend to continue. Great role, great price, can fight through a tag, and will definitely be a top 6 forward. The immediate fixtures allow for some patience if you need to plug holes elsewhere, but definitely pounce sooner than later.

Never forget what they did to our cash cow.

Forward thinking…
Toby Greene, 506k, 142 BE
Riley Thilthorpe, 449k, 128 BE