Hope you all had a great weekend and your teams (both AFL and SC) didn’t let you down. Lots of underperforming premiums means more discounts are on the way. I’ve shot up to 320 overall in the rankings, and last year hovered around the same rank for a long time before taking risks to crack the top 100 which ultimately failed. The first for the season was fading the more popular selections in Matt Rowell & Max Holmes to grab my man Jai Newcombe, and while Nuke outscored both with a flat ton, I was left dealing with a very sleep toddler and the worst 50 point win I’ve ever seen. The value is everywhere this week, so hopefully is in the hunt for an upgrade!
Defenders
Dayne Zorko (BRL, $516.8k, (-$78.3k), 108.6 AVG, 130 BE) after a scorching hot start to the season, Zork’s has crashed down to a very reasonable price for non-owners. One of the main concerns with the pick comes from the further emergence of Darcy Wilmot, Jaspa Fletcher and now Keidan Coleman who’s set to return to football this weekend. Concerns around a role change I don’t remotely agree with, the Lions just won a flag with the former Brizzy skipper also being apart of the All Australian team playing off half back, but I do largely stand by my mantra in pre-season which was “start Zorko, or pass all together.” If he gets below 500k, then I’d personally begin to get tempted, but for myself I’m much more set on trading in Jordan Clark this week (who’s technically a fallen premium as well).
Harry Sheezel (NTH, $562.8k, (-72.8k), 106.1 AVG, 110 BE) form aside, Sheezel once again found himself in defence for the Port game on Saturday, and with that came a big score of 136 points. The big news is that Harry was training in defence mid week and is looking set to play in defence against the Dons tonight, and with that comes a great price for non-owners (and Sheez traders) to jump on the 2023 Rising Star. Will the role stick? I wouldn’t think for the whole season, but I also don’t expect Cheezel to continue in a slump. Jack Sinclair I’ll also quickly mention, the word out of Moorabbin is that Sinclair was training as a mid/forward, keep an eye on his role this weekend non-owners, we’ll be discussing him next week.
Backing it up…
Jack Sinclair, 570k, 167 BE
Max Holmes, 525k, 159 BE
Sam Flanders, 489k, 159 BE
Dan Houston, 525k, 144 BE
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, 578k, 130 BE
James Sicily, 473k, 130 BE
Midfielders
Lachie Neale (BRL, $562.7k, (-$83.2k), 102.4 AVG, 79 BE) with a free run without any immediate tags incoming, the Lions skipper should be on your radar this week. The number one mid for the Lions (though McCluggage has been sensational), and statistically Neale is posting similar numbers across the board to last season (even while getting tagged into oblivion by Jordon and Atkins), I much prefer him to Josh Dunkley who I’ll also quickly touch on. Since the spike score in Round 1, Dunks has averaged 101 points, McCluggage has truly broken out as an SC premium, and on the weekend Dunks’ CBA’s dropped to 50%, and he was spending a chunk of time off a wing. I don’t quite expect that to continue, his role as an inside mid just seems too important, but it is enough for me to not be too quick to jump on.
Jordan Dawson (ADE, $498.2k, (-$52.1k), 99.4 AVG, 104 BE) the Crows skipper has struggled by foot this season (50.4% kicking efficiency this season, 63.3% kicking efficiency last season, and in past seasons had hit over the 70% mark on more than one occasion), yet similar to last season finds himself at a very friendly price for non-owners. Let me take you back to Round 5, 2023, the last time the Crows played the Blues at Adelaide Oval and it was there we saw one of those Dawson ceiling games (scoring 152 points). The incoming fixture is decent enough for the Crows, who are still to play the Eagles twice, Richmond, North, Gold Coast, 4/7 of their games prior to the byes at AO. Matt Crouch has been announced injured for 4-6 weeks, and everything is lining up for Dawson to be in consideration for your team. I expect his kicking to return to the mean, and for those considering the Crom skipper, I’d definitely be ticking that off!
Patrick Cripps (CAR. $491.1k, (-$104.2k), 95.4 AVG, 103 BE) along with Luke Davies-Uniacke are both fallen premiums I like a lot at sub-500k and are presenting as nice POD’s. The only caveat being they both have the dreaded first bye which is just around the corner. If you don’t have any issues with an overload of players missing in Round 12, then I’d be all over one, or even both of these players.
Limbo land…
Hugh McCluggage, 603k, 167 BE
Zach Merrett, 586k, 150 BE
Tom Green, 564k, 131 BE
Noah Anderson, 550k, 130 BE
Matt Rowell, 557k, 129 BE
Rucks
Rowan Marshall (STK, $451k, (-$152.5k), 90.1 AVG, 68 BE) the ultimate roller coaster in the ruck line finds himself at a very appealing price for those in search of a super POD to spice up their ruck-line / flex position. Marshall averaged 114.5 points at Marvel last season, and that trend of favouring Marvel seems to continue this season where he’s thus far averaging 109 there (65 points away from home). The immediate fixture is as follows:
Fremantle (Marvel), Carlton (MCG), West Coast (Optus), Suns (Marvel), Melbourne (TP), Bye.
Not the greatest immediate run, and with so many strong options in the rucks I’d personally look elsewhere (but that price point is very appealing).
Timberrr…
Sean Darcy, 497k, 130 BE
Toby Nankervis, 545k, 119 BE
Forwards
Chad Warner (SYD, 461k, (-$98.7k), 91.7 AVG, 78 BE) the CBA’s and mid time have increased the past two weeks, along with the Chad having penned a two year contract extension (which he himself has said was a distraction). But even with that, he’s managed scores of 71 (against a bad matchup for inside mids) and 121 (against a top 4 matchup for inside mids). Regardless of the role, the ultimate plan for Warner should be to have him as a M9/F7 swing, for those that opted to trade him in last season post-bye they’d all be well aware of just how sporadic his scoring can be. Scores last season of 38 (78% CBA’s), 64 (48% CBA’s), 72 (60% CBA’s), 135 (46% CBA’s), 144 (52% CBA’s) give an insight into just what to expect with becoming a Chad owner. The Swannies play GWS this week, who in my opinion will send Bedford toward Warner, and regardless, GWS have largely been a very restrictive midfield matchup. I’d personally wait at least one more week before jumping on, but for those limited on funds, locking in a player that should be a top 6 forward at that price point is a valid option.
Christian Petracca (MEL, $497.2k, (-$59k), 95.3 AVG, 70 BE) have been bullish on this pick since fwd DPP was practically confirmed. 129 points against the tigers, priced at sub-500k, I think it’s time to jump on if you’re not an owner. A date with the eagles this week also should allow for a nice immediate score!
Forward thinking…
Toby Greene, 468k, 191 BE
Jesse Hogan, 494k, 143 BE
Jy Simpkin, 437k, 127 BE
Great write up!
Thanks Nateo
Think I’m going to go neale over trac even though it means trading out levi ashcroft instead of Davidson. Neales upcoming schedule looks tasty and he started slow last year before becoming one of the top scorers.
If trac is back he will still be sub 550k for a week or so I’m guessing
Can definitely wait on Trac, won’t become unreachable. But I do slightly prefer shifting Davo for Trac over Levi for Neale.
Can’t really go wrong though.
If i make this trade (Murphy reid and ashcroft to hustwaite and neale) then I’ll have three rookies on field in mid/fwd positions and have lindsay, Davidson, elijah hewett, kako, cleary, hustwaite and gross/knevvit if they come back. Outside of kako they’ve all shown they’re capable of decent scores so I’m slightly less concerned about losing ashcroft on field. I do feel like I’ll a miss a little cash generation from him but hoping for a spike score from lindsay/Davidson soon.
Great writeup Abs and congrats on your season so far.
Considering your comments on the round 12 bye, I have overloaded on prems who won’t be playing that week and probably need to turf one of them. I was actually hoping Cerra’s suspension would stand to give me an excuse, but would you trade him to Neale this week anyway? I have just enough itb to do it in one trade, and while he’s been good, I think Cerra has probably done his job as a stepping stone?
Many mouth’s to feed in the Brissy side chillo
yeah fair point.
I don’t like that move personally, is it possible to manoeuvre another trade and get another rookie off the field?
I’ve still got Short rotting in my defence as at least I know what I’m getting.
Prodigious, habib.
Good write up.
Although not as big of a fall Rankine is sub 500k. Tough call between him and Tracc
TU Rankine
TU Petracca
C Daniel the fallen Cripps or too (Patrick) sidewayze
I can bring someone in up to 540K this week.
Who we think is the better of:
TU: Rozee
TD: Trac
Comment: Cripps
Looking at a forward to bring in this week given their BE and price points.
Most people are leaning Petracca, with a few on board the Warner train. I’m curious why no one is looking at Matthew Kennedy – he has scored well this year and has averaged high 90s in the past, and I feel his lower scoring at Carlton had more to do with his role than his ability as a player. Are coaches just worried about the potential impact from Mr. Magnets himself?
I don’t hate the pick, but Treloar returns this week. Suddenly the on-ball brigade for the Dogs is super congested.
Would like to see how that midfield looks with everyone there
Oh right, Treloar. I forgot about him coming back in. I think I’ll fade Kennedy for Petracca (worried about Warner getting tagged versus GWS this week). Thanks!