Hi Everybody!
As longtime readers know, and new readers are about to learn, I sometimes come up with words to describe something that I run into and want to talk about. This isn’t figuring something out or creating something, more just putting a name on stuff that we all know but maybe don’t have a name for. Or at least I don’t know of a simple/short name for. Anyways, I’m at it again.
While doing player projections and value analysis, “underpriced” and “overpriced” have come up a lot. Those are ok but are sort of general and not always that descriptive. Sort of like “tall” and “short”. Is someone Mason Cox tall or Bontempelli tall? Caleb Daniel short or Verne Troyer short? So, anyways, going from the bottom up….
Oh, all of these are assuming the player plays and isn’t hurt. Obviously getting hurt or not playing will mess up scoring. Putting that here so I don’t have to write it every time.
Basement priced: A player who is going to average far over what they are priced to average. Or putting it another way, someone who’s worst case average is better than what they are priced to average. The only risk in taking someone who is basement priced is them not doing enough better than what you paid for them. Examples are Jack Ziebel this year, or Rowell last year. Most cows really. Most rookies are priced to average 22-23. But, if they only go for 40, we’re sad. Basement priced players should always be considered seriously. Not always taken, but at least considered. Missing a good one of these will hurt.
Floor Priced . A player who is unlikely to average significantly lower than what they are priced to average and who has a significant chance of averaging much higher than where they are priced. I tend to think at least 10 points higher. Loads of them this season. Dunkley, Cripps, and Tom Phillips for examples. Also includes breakout candidates who may or may not break out. These guys are way important, although you can’t get them all, and all of them won’t actually perform over their price. But if they are not over, they are at least at, and you get what you pay for.
Accurately priced: A player who is likely to perform at about the same level as what they are priced to average. Random chance will cause fluctuation of 5% or more sometimes, so an accurate price doesn’t mean they will for sure hit that same average as last year, but it does mean confidence we will get right about what we pay for. Examples include Dustin Martin, Luke Parker, and Tom Stewart.
Ceiling Priced: A player who is unlikely to average significantly higher than what they are priced to average and who has a significant chance of averaging much lower than where they are priced. More than the 5 points from random luck lower. Almost always they should be avoided. Some examples of the avoid type are Jake Lloyd and the Tomahawk. Lloyd raised his average to 122 last season. There is little to no chance it goes much higher. There is a very good chance it goes back down by 10 points, maybe even more, since his 2019 average was 109. Do we know the rise wasn’t due to the short quarters? No. Is there a good chance it is, and he goes back to a still very respectable 110 or so? Yes there is. Why buy him at a premium? The Tomahawk is in a similar place, having put up a career high average of 106 at the age of 31. I don’t think he is sure to drop, but it is certainly the way to bet. Again, he could have a good season and still be 10 points off what he costs. However, there are players who are still worth getting at a ceiling price, namely captain candidates, like Lachie Neale. If he loses 10 points from last season’s average, which is very possible, then he is still a good captaincy option, and he might lose very little, and be a really good captaincy option. Still overpriced and maybe not the best choice, but he is durable and I’d not criticize anyone for selecting him. If you think Lloyd scoring at 110 is a captaincy option, then he’d be ok as well.
Roof Priced: A player who is so far over what he could reasonably do that his best case is below what he is priced to average. I think these are rare, since most players who have a career high have at least a chance to do it again and are really more ceiling priced. But, I think we have one this year, Max Gawn. He averaged a boggling 140 last season. He was at 128s the previous two years but It seems way likely he didn’t get 12 points better from that, and instead he benefited from the short quarters. He ought to drop some. Of course he is a great captain option, and so I’d still consider him. If he falls to a “lowly” 128 average, well, he still could be the highest average in the game, and thus the best captain option. It would be better to get that 128 from someone who was priced at 118, or 128, but those might not be options.
What practical use is all that? Well, correctly figuring out what category a player is in tells you who should and shouldn’t be in your team! Scoop up the basement priced guys and lots of floor priced guys. If you need to get ceiling or roof priced guys to have enough captaincy candidates, then do that. But otherwise, no roofs or ceilings. Even average priced guys should be avoided unless they somehow fit in a way a floor priced guy can’t.
Let’s say you have three spots open, and fill them all with each type.
Moe, Larry, and Curly all averaged 105 last year but are ceiling priced.
Groucho, Harpo, and Chico all averaged 105 last year but are accurately priced.
Kermit, Fozzie, and Gonzo all averaged 105 last year but are floor priced.
Moe averages 105, Larry 100 and Curly 95
Groucho averages 100, Harpo, 105, and Chico 110
Kermit averages 115, Fozzie 110. And Gonzo 105
Total points from the ceiling group is 6,600, ave of 100
Total points from the accurate group is 6,930, ave of 105
Total points from the floor group is 7,260, ave of 110.
In other words 330 points for each level at the end of the year. Swapping just one player from ceiling to floor would be 220 points, assuming a 5 point change. Even a 2.5 point swing each way is a 110 point difference. One player from accurate to floor would be 110 for a 5 point change or 55 for a 2.5 point change. Ok, now for more real life we would want 3 captaincy options which leaves us with about 10 players, that’s 1100 and 550. Heck of a lot of points! Could be more depending on how well we pick players.
Oh, and a hint, since older players tend to get worse and younger players tend to be the ones who break out and go up in score, it makes sense to be careful of older players. By older I mean 29 or more, and extra careful with each added year. Young guys who look to be accurately priced can still surprise with a big increase and old guys who look to be priced accurately are much more prone to get unexpectedly hit by a beer truck. If you are not sure between to players, maybe go with the younger one.
Thanks for reading!
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I’d have Hawkins as more of a roof priced player than Gawn.
In fact, I’d say at his age and his previous history his price is either stratospheric or nearer to lunar orbit.
Well, I wouldn’t take him for sure. Strong pass either way. I’m mostly reluctant to say he is a roofer because he put up such an odd score last year I can imagine him doing it again. But wow, would never own him hoping for a 2nd miracle