**How Supercoach Pricing Works 2023**

Hi Everybody!

Once again it’s time for the annual explanation of pricing and price changing. Because this is nearly the same every year, this post is nearly the same as last year because I am lazy and don’t feel like doing a bunch of extra work here when I could do something more useful. There is a link to the 2020 post with more details at the end for those interested.

Anyways

To get a player’s price, the SC Gods take each player’s average and multiply it by a number, called “The Magic Number,” to get their price. Each year that number changes. This year the magic number is somewheres about $5505.74. After multiplying they round off the results to the nearest $100.

Rory Laird: 2,557 points from 20 games = 127.85 * $5505.74 = 703,908.859 which rounds to $703,900. And looking at SC, he is indeed $703,900. I did this for 298 players, yay spreadsheets, and that calculator works for all of them that played enough games to avoid a discount. Some players who didn’t play a lot of games will get a discount, which is a great way to find bargains, but also throws off those calculations. So, I stick to players who have played at least sixteen games. Not because there is a penalty at fifteen, but because that cut off gave me more than enough players to do the math. And I was too lazy to look up when the discounts start.

For changes during the season, you take the player’s current price. Divide it into fourths. Keep three fourths. Throw away the last fourth. Then, take the average of the player’s last three scores and multiply that by the base Magic number we calculated at the season start. (BASE Magic Number, very important to use the base one.) Divide by 4. Add that to the three fourths you saved. Round that to the nearest $100. That’s the player’s new price.

That means that the first round score only counts once towards price changes and the second round score only counts twice.

Another effect of the three round average is that a player who has a really good or bad score will have the maximum change from that score three rounds later. For low scores, that will be a good chance to buy and for a high score a good place to sell. I call it the “Rule of Three”. Helpful when planning purchase and sales.

Quick note, that $5505.74 is the “Base” magic number I mentioned before. It never changes. A lot of people use a current magic number which is the ave/price for each week. Why would it change? Well, that’s from deflation. The SC gods, for some ineffable reason, want the total price of every player in the game, when added up, to be the same each round. That means when there are more price rises than price falls, the total of all players’ prices would go up. So, every round where there are price changes they take the old total and divide that by the new total. Then they multiply the price of every player by that number. (This has never been stated as the mechanism by the Gods to my knowledge, but it fits everything I have seen.)

This means that a player who scores exactly what he was priced to average each week would go down in price rather than stay the same, which is what would happen without deflation. It also means the break evens that SC publishes are not 100% accurate, since they do not take deflation into account. I take a shot at it for Cow Talk projections, based on past experience.

One things I did see this year was Footywire and the SC site not agreeing on all players stats. How many games did Baily Banfield play? SC site says 18, Footywire says 21. Did Callum Mills score 2567 or 2566? Most player were the same, but I was very confused until I realized the data was different on each site for some players. The calculations that go into the game of course use the number in the game. But of the player who played 16 or more games, I think there were about 30 wrong out of 330, so about 10%. (I had corrected some before I figured this out so may be off by one or two, which is not enough to matter.) Very much a surprise.

Link to that older write up: https://supercoachtalk.com/how-supercoach-pricing-works-2020/

Thanks for reading!

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And the undervalued players are…

Guys like:

Worpel, Yeo, Callaghan, Sheed, Hopper, Cunnington, Ziebell, Ridley, Green, Ratugolea, Allen etc.

How undervalued (if undervalued at all)? Well that’s up to each person‘s preference and risk tolerance.

I guess I meant with FD’s formula. What players has he identified as statistically undervalued compared to what we perceive as undervalued.

Oh, well, The formula, which is not mine, it is just how SC does pricing, doesn’t itself undervalue anyone. They get a pice based on their average, with discount for low game played. So, look for guys who played a small number of games.

If you divide a player’s price by 5505.74, you get what they are priced to average. If you think they will average more than that, they are underpriced.

That’s why cheap cows go up so much. 123,900 / 5505.74 = 22.5. Well under what most will score.

Laird.

Love this, Father. Such fantastic information! I’m not sure it’s related but why do we use the amount of $150K to say that is what a cow should make?