(Written & Created By AllSaints)
Do you feel lucky punk?
If so, read on.
Aside from the rookies who make loads of cash, there are always a few others that make a fair load too; whether they be mid-pricers who make more than enough cash to act as a stepping-stone to an elite pick or better still, average well enough to become a keeper, aka a BREAKOUT!
To qualify for this analysis, we’ve looked at EVERY player back to and including 2012 (seven seasons) who:
– Played at least 18 games in the relevant season AND
– Was priced above $210k at season’s start (ie is NOT defined as a rookie), AND
– Made at least $180k (ie was safely worth starting based on the value of a trade) AND
– Finished that particular season in the top 20 money-makers for the year
The criteria may seem harsh, but that is deliberate. There are players like Greene, R.Gray, B.Crouch, Neale, S.Martin and A.Hall who have all been excluded due simply to # of games played. By being more critical, we can better identify the common traits and so will likely err on the side of caution when it comes to picking the right mid-pricers. ONLY if a player satisfied ALL of the above criteria, is he included in this analysis, because these players are MORE valuable than a rookie (by definition); they offer the same if not better cash-generation AND definitely more on-field points. Some of them, dependent on their starting price also turn out to be KEEPERS and not just stepping-stones to something better. It’s worth doing the analysis, especially in a year where it looks like we may be short of genuine rookie numbers come Round 1. That is, we may not have a choice!!
Some generic findings:
There have been 18 players who have met these criteria in the last seven seasons; an average of 2.57 players per year.
For the last five years, there have been at least two mid-priced players who made more than $200k during the season:
o four players in 2017 being the highest
We can split these players into two categories:
i. BREAKOUTS – averaged 95+ (DEF/FWD) for the year, or 100+ (MID/RUC), and so can be defined as genuine KEEPERS, and
ii. MONEY-MAKERS – made more than $200k, but there ave. doesn’t warrant keeping them for the entire season, and so can be defined as STEPPING-STONES
Let’s look at each separately.
From 2012 there have only been six BREAKOUTS who meet our strict criteria. Of course, there have been other genuine breakouts who have made it to the elite level in this time, but more gradually (and therefore haven’t met the cash-generated/money-maker criteria). The tools for best identifying these slower potential breakout players was covered off in the previous ‘Elite Analysis’.
There are some commonalities:
– All bar one of them (Josh Dunkley) were first round draft picks (and in the top 10)
– Ave. season to do it was 3rd season (earliest 2nd and last 5th season)
– Had played an ave. 31 games PRIOR to their breakout season (as few as 13, as many as 62)
– Ave. 20.3 years old (youngest 19 and oldest 22)
– Average cash gain was $229 333
The players are: Dangerfield (2012), Wingard (2013), Macrae (2014), Oliver (2017), Brayshaw and Dunkley (both 2018)
Genuine freaks the lot of them, but the other common theme, not surprisingly, is considerably more MID-time than the previous year, while both Dunkley and Brayshaw also made shedloads of cash having played 7 games or less AND had injury-effected output(s) in the previous year (so deflating their starting price). Which brings us on nicely to the other lot …
Excluding the BREAKOUTs (as they will skew the results) there are 12 other players who have met ALL the criteria listed earlier. Rather than being breakouts, they may well have already been classed as elite and just had an off-season, or they made a load of cash and scored decently enough to act as a stepping stone to something better. There are a number of traits that these players share to some degree, and they are all related to the season prior:
– Missed the entire previous season (1)
– Played 7 or less games, so received a price discount (9)
– Had injury-effected scores (10)
– Had averaged significantly higher earlier in their career, so seemed genuinely under-priced (11)
– Not far off genuine breakout, or first big leap in SC average (6)
– Changed clubs in the off-season (2)
Every player meets at least two of these criteria. Eight of them (two-thirds) meet three or more. Their average cash gain was $248 983.
In summary then:
There are approximately 2.6 players per year who will bear ‘mid-price madness’ fruit. One of them may even be a keeper. Look for the signs. If they share at least three of the commonalities they’re a genuine chance; I’d be looking for four of the traits to be sure. I think I’m right in saying only one of them had had a knee reconstruction (the players included are listed below, along with those who just missed out).
Happy hunting SCTers!!
Sample: Will HOSKIN-ELLIOTT, Matt KREUZER, David SWALLOW, Jarrod WITTS (all 2017), Daniel WELLS, Jarryd LYONS (both 2016), Dylan ROBERTON, Patrick CRIPPS, Mitch WALLIS (all 2015), Dom TYSON, Aaron SANDILANDS (both 2014) and Jarryn GEARY (2012).
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