Most Traded – Round 11

     

OUTs

Not to state the obvious, but the big three injury concerns for two thirds of the SuperCoach community combine as the top three trade outs for the week.

The biggest impact has hit us with nearly half of the 62,000 Jason Horne Francis owners choosing to flog him off to pasture, at least for a while. Any four week absence makes sense so it is not surprising to see this many coaches moving him on for like options in Chad Warner, Luke Jackson or Shai Bolton. I like any of those options, however each comes with their own caveat, and we’ll discuss them during the “INs”

More than a quarter of Finn Callaghan‘s owners are restructuring as well, given he has a 4-6 week prognosis which sounds suspiciously like a return to duty after his round 16 bye. Don’t see him as a top eight mid so definitely time to move him on for a scoring player in the interim.

Whilst Jack Macrae‘s trade outs are pretty significant (20,000 at this stage), there are still 100,000 coaches that have retained him as he is the second highest ownership in the game. Of the three, it makes heaps more sense to hang onto Jack over the other two given the estimated two match absence even though he is unlikely to return until after his round 13 bye. If you were holding, you were factoring in the bye anyway, and you are considering he still will be a top six forward despite the being out for a couple. 71% of our Tuesday poll voted to hold, but  a lot of that was before his confirmed 2-3 weeks out. Has that news changed your mind? (see poll below)

I am not a Callaghan owner so do not have the triple conundrum. However, pre team drops I’m considering a boost this round to include Macrae, Hornet and the Eagle young gun, Elijah Hewett to give me a bank of $1.4m which may go some way towards evening out my bye round players. (see INs)

Tom De Koning appears on the list at number nine, which I find a little bemusing. He could be back this week and despite Pittonet being OK last week, he still may not be favoured over Tom. And, if Tom is dual rucking, he is still a pretty good prospect against the “not yet in form” Kieran Briggs this week. It appears from the lists that the only trades from TDK could be to either Visentini or Jackson, as no other ruckman appears on the traded in list. Due to the high breakeven, I understand the Jackson move as it is straight swap and probably clears that awkward round twelve bye situation. Visentini I feel is not a great move. Port is throwing a few changes in there and Soldo and Sweet are by no means out of the picture completely, and I’m not prepared to predict how long Dante will stay there. Despite a low -34 BE, he is a bit pricey for a bench cash cow, and definitely a bit dodgy to put on the field in place of TDK, AND he is not diminishing the problems of the round twelve bye if that was in your thinking.

All the rest are fattened or semi fattened cows, and there are not too many arguments for and against, plus most of you will know how to deal with them by now. For those needing a little piece of advice, for what it’s worth, these are my immediate thoughts. Isaac Kako can go right now. BE of 73 and a high score of 62 screams “I’m not making money”. He cannot be considered as bye cover with his low ceiling, and certainly should not be carried to his round 16 bye. Take the $77k while you can. I like Elijah Hewett but see him as someone who will fulfil his potential and be a gun, but not someone I can rely on now to be a consistent scorer. He’s made us $169k and I cannot see that growing against my boys at Adelaide Oval this week, so I’m taking the cash.

Each of the other four on the list can be held without too much disaster, although last week was surely the time to say bye bye to Riley Bice. if you held, you lost $21k. His average and his BE are closer now (80/84), so I feel he could be a hold if you factor in his game style potentially suiting the wide spaces of the “G” and a Demon’s side that is not afraid to give points to half backs. The positive would be that he then becomes useful during rounds 12 and 13 byes and could be conveniently traded for his own round 14 bye. The negative is obviously he continues to lose money. I traded him to Jack Sinclair last week but I reckon I still see the positives for the next couple of weeks. However, you can still clean up with a $241k profit which would be useful elsewhere, depending on structure. Similarly, Luke Trainor, sits in the same boat. BE of 71 sneaking above his average of 57 but he has scored more than his BE on four occasions (90,82,80,82) so is capable of holding steady as bye coverage till round 14. Subbed out last week was not a good sign, but I think this is a Noah Bolta OUT week so should be safe for one more at least, and against theoretically softer Bomber team (sorry Wighty) could score well again. Caiden Cleary is another who could be handy bye cover until round 14 as his average and BE are just overlapping. Certainly capable of spike scores as evidenced by a couple of 80’s, but time in the guts has been lacking lately. He’s one I’ll hang onto till round 14, everything considered. I’m sure you all have your ideas on Levi Ashcroft. Half of his scores this season has been above his BE of 86, and he’s one you can rely on to help on field. I’ve never owned him but I would not be averse to holding him through to his bye in round 16 as I feel he will hold value, and certainly not plummet dramatically. Rest or sub watch for a young star in his first season is a possibility though.

INs

Up to 30,000 coaches jumping on the Cooper Simpson dock over in the west, and for good reason. The only real cheapie cash cow for the week when we all need cash generation badly (or goodly)! Only negative I see is a non DPP for future traversing of the field, but as a forward in SC has a solid role at this time down back for the Dockers, which is so much more conducive to scoring than as a pure forward. I toyed with a Kiddy Coleman trade in as a scoring player to cover byes till round 16, rather than a cash cow, but I think cash will win out as I will stockpile over $300k for next weeks clearing of dead round 12 players. Anyhow, just jump on.

There’s a clear move towards Freo boys in both the overall coaches and the top % coaches to grab Shai Bolton this week with upwards of 12k nabbing him to this point. Bolton has long been considered a “hot and cold” player and many were avesrse to his selection because of this. This year, his hot is more dominant than his cold and has become even more assured with his role in the long term absence of Hayden Young. Take out the horrendous five pointer against the Saints and he has scored two great tons either side of it and would be averaging over the ton. Add a useful DPP and a friendly round 13 bye (although there will be two extra if you take Simpson as well) and the argument adds up. I may depending on my bye structure, but may lean towards Sydney or the Suns as I only have Naicos out in round 14.

Luke Jackson completes an all Freo top three. I must admit I enjoyed the ride until his injury and turned him into Big Max. No regrets. The ogre of Sean Darcy playing in the same side is always the caveat in this scenario, and it looks as if he will be back rather soon. There is no argument that Jacko loses points when Shrek is on the field, but there is plenty of risk and reward if you take this path. The other factor is if you are not convinced that Darcy stays on the park long term, then this is a good move in my opinion.

Sitting at eight on the list is the Bont, Marcus Bontempelli. I love the Bont, and will get him but just not this week. Has a BE of 157 and will be somewhat restricted by the Cats with a Mullin, O’Connor or Atkins type attention. He will shrug a lot of it off but may find It hard to reach his breakeven, making him slightly cheaper after his bye (see what GD has to say in the Captain’s report for further stats). And why would you bring him in for one game at that price.  Suns skipper, Noah Anderson, is one I’m considering (due to that aforementioned R14 bye), but we need take a look at the potential roadblocks. Speaking to owners, they are frustrated by his inconsistency and lack of ceiling numbers. He had a three round average of only 96 before his spike game in Darwin, and his only other score over 120 was round one. Matchups against the next four opponents also do not beggar confidence as he has no career average above 90 in any of those matchups. Added to this he will have attention against the Saints with a tight arse Windhager running around with him, a Wagner/Worner type sniffing around against FREO, the aforementioned Mullin, Aktins, O’Connor combo down at the Cattery, not to mention The Human Glove, Toby Bedford against the Giants. Does it sound like I’m trying to talk myself out of it? There’s not many round 14 bye players worth considering, so if I decide that’s my course, the choices are realistically Noah, The Chad or Heeney.

Kiddy Coleman is a popular choice this week, despite not much screaming “pick me” from his first game. As I said, I was considering it from a bye cover perspective as he will be valuable in that role for the next five weeks. I still will grab him, but not till next week after another game of data to digest and banking the Simpson cash. Having said that, I don’t hate the idea so if it suits your team, jump on, I’m sure it won’t be a bust and you will at least make some moolah. Of the 5659 coaches who have included him at this stage, 91% of them have him in the starting line up, supporting my initial thoughts that they believe he will provide solid scores through the byes.

We touched on Jack Sinclair and Chad Warner last week, and the respective plusses for them. They did not let us down and they are still affordable and good value given their potential, plus they both have a friendlier bye. Both really good solid choices I feel and not too late to get them in if it suits your structure.

Thanks for reading folks, I hope your ideas are a bit clearer for the read. Good luck in a difficult week’s trading.