A price of $721,800. A breakeven of 271. And an average of 76… Lachie Neale’s 68,517 owners have a decision to make this week.
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Poll: Neale
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Why is this even a question? ♂️
Because the way to win in Supercoach is to have the best players for the season.
Players cost money.
Neale is losing a metric shit-ton of money in the next few weeks.
People have Neale ??
Collingwood are saying they might tag Neale this weak.
Does that mean we trade him out
TU Trade
TD Hold
Nathan Buckley – “We know Levi Greenwood has been a really good stopper for us in the past, so that’s a consideration for us,”
“Neale’s a quality player, he doesn’t often put two bad ones together.
“It probably shows you how difficult it is as an elite player in the competition to continually back up.
“It’s not as if coaches are sitting on their hands ignoring the quality of players in the opposition, so he’s definitely someone that we’ll consider, but they (Brisbane) happen to have a few, like most sides do.
“The job that O’Connor did was a strong performance but I think that there’s also a team element to that as well in what Geelong were able to do to stifle Brisbane as a whole.”
Collingwood have a history of tagging first Beams and then Neale.
If you believe Neale can average 110-115 from round 3 then he is a hold. He will leak $150,000 cash for the year with the big drop over the next two rounds.
There is currently a few midfielders struggling at the moment namely Gaff, Fyfe, Cripps, Kelly (GWS) and others.
Value looks to be in the defenders with Laird’s DPP maybe a bonus to take advantage until the midfielders settle down?
Fyfe scored 109 and then 92 from 63% game time (knocked out) he’s been alright
Think back to rd1 when Gawn & Grundy were all the rage trade talk.
Just ride it out
Mutley Snickers.
If I trade him out I would spend the rest of the season trying to get him back in.
2 trades can be put to better use.
What I think some people in the “he’s gonna come good, wait it out” camp are forgetting is that you can net $150K+ over the next four to six weeks by shorting him. Yes, it costs a trade. So does downgrading a rookie. Cash in the bank doesn’t care where it comes from.
There is a big chance that Neale will leak a heap of cash over the next six to eight weeks unless the Brisbane midfield can get behind him?
Pies, Dogs, Bombers where he can probably go 160, Carlton with the Curnow tag, Port, Freo away , Suns then the Tigers.
Think there was positive signs the second half in the Geelong game where if you put plenty of time into a gun that it will eventually come unstuck as the game unravels.
Forecasting 3 games of 160+?
If I trade Neale what are the best options im thinking,
TU Ridley
TD Martin
Or i could go another midfielder but not sure who
Both are good.
If you’re looking at defenders Houston and Barrass are certainly options.
Also Selwood, Butters and Cerra have great breakevens.
At least I know other Tech teams have Neale so they’ll be having the same question to ask themselves
The real question: Will he be in the top 8 mids for the season? If you think yes, hold. If you think no, you’re wrong, hold.
As a general principle yes, but this is one a little out of the box. It’s the old sell them high principle. All that cash of his, if used wisely, can set up the season for a team. Neale and Caldwell (hammy) is nearly 1.1million to spend for some of us IF we go down this path.
Very true RB. Adding to the uncertainty about him is the prospect of further tagging & Brisbane’s unsettled situation in the next week or two. Can re-evaluate after he’s bottomed out.
For me, Neale & Caldwell down to Jordon & Tex allow Dow & Cox to become Brayshaw & Ridley next week.
You are backing in Tex to be able to keep that all season? I feel a lot will be sucked into this and be chasing points.
I’m chasing the 200k if he averages only 60 in the next three weeks….almost 500k on the way out.
This is definitely more about chasing money than points, short term.
And to be honest, if the rest of my team was doing fine, I’d probably ride it out with Neale. But with 4 of my 5 starting premium mids currently various levels of busts, I’ve gotta take some risks somewhere.
There’s no way 2 weeks ago I’d have advocated Neale to Tex as a good move but that’s some serious cash generation there. Super tempting but feels slightly crazy!!
Say it out loud “is trading Lachie Neale to Tex Walker a good trade”
I hear ya … but …
Yeah, looking at it that way, I want to give myself an uppercut, but a couple of years ago I did the even crazier Gawn down to a rookie ROB trade and it ended up somewhat salvaging an otherwise crappy season
So WtF do I do with RoB now.
Trade to Flynn or Meek.
Flynn is on to make 112k next week alone.
Fair point however, lets say you have neal who will score 100 to 120 for the next month and say a mid pricers who may score 80 to 110, by trading out neal to another gun mid more likely to score 120 plus then use the extra cash to turn that mid pricers into hopefully a 500 thou player whos able to score 100 plus every game. The extra points you’ll score between now and byes could be well worth considering the neal trade out.
Ok I think I have settled, I am trading Neale. I’m urging towards Ridley so I gain 202k as well. He will average around 115 I reckon which will also be Neale’s average. Neale is too easily tagged and getting around the same average for 200k less.
I think it depends how many Overall trades you have already used. If you have only used 1-2 so far and have all the good rookies then go for it. If this is trade #4, or if there are good rookies you don’t have, then it is a luxury trade that you might wish you held onto later in the season. I’m holding.
Why all this talk about tagging?
You don’t seriously think most teams have good, genuine hard taggers anymore. It was a gamble by Geelong and it paid off.
Wouldn’t be banking on it happening too often.Neale will be fine. The whole team has been ordinary. Once they get their groove back he will be posting 140’s again.
Did the gamble by Geelong pay off? In the true sense, yes but only by a quirk of fate. It was only a mistake by an umpire that got them the win. They should of lost.
Coaches want to win, they are not interested in Supercoach.
They will try and tag Neale (or who ever) if they think it will help them win. Even Buckley said “they (Brisbane) happen to have a few, like most sides do.” “The job that O’Connor did was a strong performance but I think that there’s also a team element to that as well in what Geelong were able to do to stifle Brisbane as a whole.” He is saying that you need a whole team effort and tactics not just a tag. If Brisbane other players step up and they win games why would tagging Neale be ongoing tactic. Years ago Zorko was heavily tagged and was criticize for not being able to handle a tag. The team as a whole responded and aided Zorko. He learnt how to handle the tag. I am confident the Lions will respond again.
I am keeping Neale.
It is false economy saying he is going to lose money. No, he not losing anything! If you don’t sell him you have lost nothing. You already own him. You don’t need to waste three trades getting him back. ( 1 to sell him and 2 trades to buy him back)
While some owners are going to sell, non owners are waiting to get him in !!
“False economy”. So well said, CT!
Price fluctuations not a criterion by which to assess premo MIDs. Irrelevant if you’ve started him.
Neale a hold from me as well.
There is a little thing called “opportunity cost”.
So while you “technically” never lose money until you actually sell, keeping something that is totally worthless and not selling it doesn’t make sense.
Especially when you could sell it at an artificially inflated covidball price $70,000 above any previous recorded level, $120,000 past realistic long term prices, and $300,000 above it’s current valuation.
How much is a trade worth?
Is it not something like $150k ? Did you factor that in your “opportunity cost”
HH you can speculate. I am conserving trades.
I don’t think Neale is “totally worthless”
BTW. Is Neale in your plans to be a buyback? When your false gold trajectory dissects?
One hopes that you spend your ‘stock market dividend” wisely.
Good luck to you. I am glad people try different things.
You’re right in that Coaches don’t care about Supercoach. you only need to look at Clarkson or Cameron to know this is true.
But say we go down the rabbit hole.
The question then becomes “what would the outcome have been if we didn’t tag Lachie Neale” and then you are into a vast panopticon of alternate realities where every option leads to a different outcome.
Such possibilities are unknowable.
All we can judge is that Lachie Neale underperformed on 16 possessions and was tagged.
You may as well ask “How much would Geelong have won by if Jordan Clark hadn’t delivered 8 clangers” of “How much would Geelong have won by if Hawkins kicked 6 goals 1 instead of 3 goals 4”.
All such considerations have equal weight.
In the last 3 minutes of that game there were 4 contentious decisions, two went each way. But they all effectively stemmed from the first free kick not given.
Personally, I love the post match debate, the alternative history. I could spend a week debating it, or debates about the repurposing of the ME262, or if Whitlam got Kerr dismissed first.
You can never know the answer, nor convince others of the merit of your choice, but geez it’s a great way to talk nonsense over a beer.
***** WARNING ***** THIS POSTER DOES NOT OWN LACHIE NEALE *****
Do you honestly think he’s going to return to a covidball average when most matches were played in Queensland, in shortened quarters, without a lot of unhappy homesick opposition, and without the amendments to rules that are quite clearly impacting scoring in certain positions?
At best, you might hope he’s going to go back to his previous record high of 121. A more realistic interpretation is probably somewhere around his average from 2015 -2019 which might seem him averaging in the high 110’s.
Do you think Ridley will be in the top 8 Mids by end of season?
If not then it’s not the best option regardless of his B/E as you will be trading him on again anyway.
TU Ridley will be top 8
TD He’s had a good run but won’t sustain it
Ridley won’t be a mid but he’ll be top 8 defender for sure. Essendon wqill do a lot of defending and he will do a lot of kick ins.
ALL valid points.
Let’s play devils advocate…
1. Neale goes pop and starts scoring agreeable scores
2. Neale has a bad season and improves his scoring rate, but doesn’t end up top 8 mids
1.1. Happy days. You’ve lost some cash gen but Neale is still scoring
2.1. Not so happy days. You’ve lost points and cash
Either way, it’s a risk. You’re basing a risk taking exercise on past performances and what you think might or might not happen.
Point being, so what’s best for your current team and reason for playing. Leagues? Overall?
Neale could go off, Neale could fall on his butt.
Geez I’d love to be selling shares to some of you lot.
This week: Expected Change -$76,100
Round 3 Expected Price $645,700
Next week Expected Change 2 -$40,000
Round 4 Expected Price 2 $605,700
Round 5 Expected Change 3 -$13,000
Round 5 Expected Price 3 $592,700
That’s assuming historical form returns, not current form. This is pricing him recovering to a nice neat 130 average after a couple of rounds.
On current form he’s a sub $400k player.
So obviously if he runs at his recent average against Collingwood, which would be lucky to see him score 100 next week. He’s up for an $80k loss and another $65k ish the week after.
If he then stabilizes, he’s still going somewhere near $500k.
Right now, on current trajectory, him and Tex Walker are currently gonna cross paths around round 6.
For those not willing to consider trades on premos, how does a “sell Neale, buy Macrae and Tex Walker now and straight swap Tex back for Neale at Round 6” deal sound?
Because that is what the numbers in the market are saying.
How much is a trade worth?
We do have stock market crashes.
We all have different ideas on Supercoach. It makes it interesting.. but it is never easy as we think.
Of course it isn’t. It’s part blind fandom, part strategy, part share trading.
With changing rules every year and a very very biased judge handing out the points.
If it wasn’t all these things it wouldn’t be interesting.
Is the share trading the luck component?
Injury is the luck component.
I should clarify that.
Injury to stars with no prior injury in that area , freak injury is the luck component.
Picking guys who have interrupted preseasons with injury (Neale), or have years of ongoing injury history (Hanneberry, Naismith), or constantly get injuries by their reckless attack on the ball (Cunnington, Fyfe) isn’t luck.
It’s poor research and overly aggressive risk taking.
He has the Bombers in 3 weeks ( round 5) and will likely score 160 plus. Check his statistics, brownlow votes and super coach scores against same who are in disarray.
He’s a wimp. Even Truck will send him a close tag. He might be in the NEAFL Brisbane 2ns in 3 weeks time.
Those expected price changes aren’t based off Neale returning to a 130 avg, its based off projected scores.
Rd3 – Projected score = 99
Rd3 – Projected price change = -$76.1k
Rd4 – Projected score = 109
Rd4 – Projected price change = -$40k
Rd5 – Projected score = 115
Rd5 – Projected price change = -$13k
Rd6 – Projected score = 120
Rd6 – Projected price change = -$1.1k
If you already have: Highmore,Gulden,Jordan,Powell,Kosi,Brockman,Flynn,Meek,Ziebell,Campbell,Warner,L Mac,Rowe & Bergman, then by all means spend a trade on Neale for Tex or the Ridler 😉
I’m currently in 178th OA, I have all good rookies, 28 trades Caldwell and 10k itb.
Tu: Caldwell to Tex/Atkins/Impey save a trade, bank the cash
TD : Caldwell & Neale to Martin & Butters 100k ITB
What if Neale isn’t Top 8? People are saying you’ll need to trade him back in, but plenty of players having been Top 8 and fallen dramatically away between seasons.
Cripps/Dunkley last year, Dusty/Zorko in ‘19, Pendles/JPK/Hanners in ‘17.
Lots of different reasons, but it’s not unusual, and all of those would’ve been locks at the time.
That Neale is vulnerable to taggers has been obvious in his last 12 games. He copes so badly with a close tag that he can expect to be tagged 9 weeks out of 10. Even Buckley (no great believer in tagging) will send Sidebottom or another to tag Neale on Thursday night. You save $70k immediately (or over 2 weeks about $100k ) by selling him. Expect the tagged Lachie Neale to average less than 90 in 2021. He’s a wimp & a sook. Ditch him now.
The reason why Neale doesn’t always get tagged that much is that Brisbane has two other players who also notoriously cannot handle a tag. Zorko and Rich.
Of the three, Neale generally handles a tag a lot better than the others, although if you look at his history against DeBoer or Hewett you can certainly see how a good tagger can do a lot to take him out of the game.
Last 3 against Sydney 77, 55, 108. Last 3 against GWS 87, 47, 151 * De Boer not playing
So, he’s an 80 point better player against GWS without a tag. Certainly looks and smells like a tag works on him.
What’s concerning is that Sydney didn’t even use their usual hard tagger on him,
and the fact that O’Connor (not a noted tagger) was so effectively able to smother him suggests that there’s more to it than just a tag.
What it is, I don’t know. Lack of match fitness, personal issues, or injury.
But this isn’t just a tagging issue, it’s a tagging issue plus another issue.
I don’t have Neale so not something I have to worry about thankfully..
If I had him personally I would trade. If you hit the right cash gaining replacement not only are you avoiding the Neale price falls you are also gaining the cash from the replacement so double dividends.
Best case scenario your replacement and Neale get close enough in price in a few weeks that it’s an easy upgrade if you decide to make it with minimal additional cash to fork out.
If you sell Neale you can afford to buy back Gawn, who you sold last week
Beautifully put.
You don’t sell premos after one bad game. You wait for the second lol
Calwell to jiath (helps my backline very well due to not having kozi or sharp on field)
And then cripps to tmitch.
Thoughts?
Wrong spot to post, but I’m rating Jiath on his climb from mid last year and the Hawks seem very keen on him, given he’s in the side and other young players like Greaves are not.
He’s fast and exciting which Hawthorn need, especially in light of this years rule changes. We’ve seen with Sydney what a bit of pace injected can do under the new rules.
Going to absolutely love trading Neale in in a few weeks time when he bottoms out, should be a POD by then.
Too many people won’t trade him out so he will never be a POD.
Plus, if and when he bottoms out, at least 1/3 the supercoach community will be all over him.
Was thinking of keeping Neale
But with injury doubts around him, plus his drop in price, im starting to lean towards trading him out for Steele or Boaky