The byes are here and it seems like it could be one of the worst bye periods in recent years with the lack of rookies that are getting games at the moment. Top this off with a plethora of suspensions to popular selections and we have some bye round crisis even in a week that was supposed to be an easier one. Let’s all hope that the fringe rookies we need get selected this week. Please don’t trade out premiums or keepers to get to 18 players, you may not get them back and there is still a long way to go so trades are vital.
I have taken the break evens of the bye players from SuperCoach but I don’t believe them to be correct at the time of creating this. In most cases they are probably higher by 15-20 suggesting they are calculated on an extra game for these players so take these with some caution.
Players on the bubble are marked with an asterisk.
DEFENDERS
| Player | Club | Price (Change) | Score (Ave) | BE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis MELICAN | SYD | $172,300 | 87 (87) | -21 |
| Cameron FLEETON* | GWS | $123,900 | DNP (46) | -20 |
| Josh WEDDLE | HAW | $279,200 (+$49k) | 62 (67) | -15 |
| Oisin MULLIN | GEE | $102,400 | 54 (54) | -14 |
| Ollie LORD (DEF) | PTA | $221,400 (+$36.9k) | 75 (55) | -1 |
| James O'DONNELL | WBD | $107,900 (+$5.5k) | 33 (24) | 14 |
| Campbell CHESSER (MID) | WCE | $139,500 | DNP (28) | 15 |
| Rhyan MANSELL (FWD) | RIC | $253,000 (+$24.6k) | 68 (48) | 19 |
| Seamus MITCHELL (FWD) | HAW | $299,600 (+$32.1k) | 69 (67) | 22 |
| Tylar YOUNG | RIC | $220,000 (+$2.5k) | 47 (49) | 23 |
| Will GOULD | SYD | $152,200 | DNP (36) | 26 |
| Miller BERGMAN | NTH | $253,800 (+$17k) | 63 (55) | 29 |
| Josh FAHEY (MID) | GWS | $123,900 | 7 (7) | 41 |
| Rory ATKINS (MID) | GCS | $301,800 (+$11.1k) | 28 (70) | 44 |
| Conor MCKENNA | BRL | $269,300 (-$10.6k) | 50 (62) | 53 |
| James MADDEN | BRL | $148,400 | 4 (4) | 53 |
| Aaron FRANCIS (FWD) | SYD | $266,300 (+$25.5k) | 46 (51) | 56 |
| Max MICHALANNEY | ADE | $281,800 (-$9.4k) | 54 (61) | 63 |
| Judd MCVEE (MID) | MEL | $289,200 (-$1.6k) | 47 (56) | 70 |
| Dylan WILLIAMS (FWD) | PTA | $334,800 (+$4.9k) | 36 (65) | 73 |
| Reuben GINBEY (MID) | WCE | $336,600 (+$18.4k) | 81 (68) | 78 |
| Harry SHEEZEL (FWD) | NTH | $468,700 (-$6.7k) | 79 (99) | 79 |
| Jack BUCKLEY | GWS | $373,800 (-$28.4k) | 63 (80) | 90 |
| Darcy WILMOT (MID) | BRL | $308,500 (+$5.7k) | 29 (59) | 90 |
The Good: Melican played his 1st game of the year and caught the eye as a possible rookie target although his career average is just under 60. He had 15 touches at 93% with 8 intercepts and 8 one percenters. Ginbey bounced back this week with 19 touches with 11 contested, 5 tackles and 7 intercepts and may as well be held until his bye if you still have him.
The Bad: Atkins had a poor game and was subbed off in the last quarter. He had just 6 touches with 2 marks and 3 tackles. Wilmot was quiet after 2 great games with Rich returning to the side although his poor use was also a factor. He had 12 touches at 42% with 5 clangers, 2 marks and 2 tackles.
Time To Trade: Wilmot, McVee
MIDFIELDERS
| Player | Club | Price (Change) | Score (Ave) | BE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George WARDLAW | NTH | $193,800 | 43 (64) | -16 |
| Matthew JOHNSON | FRE | $216,700 (+$22.7k) | 72 (43) | 11 |
| Harry SHARP | BRL | $161,900 | DNP (52) | 15 |
| Oskar BAKER | WBD | $305,100 (+$12.9k) | 78 (61) | 37 |
| Mitchell KNEVITT | GEE | $258,300 (+$12.9k) | 40 (50) | 50 |
| Oliver HOLLANDS | CAR | $270,600 (-$11.6k) | 42 (56) | 77 |
| Will ASHCROFT | BRL | $420,400 (+$18.9k) | 52 (80) | 109 |
The Good: Baker played one of his best games of the year with 15 touches, 5 marks, 5 intercepts and 4 clearances. Johnson had his best game as he got to play a full game. He had 20 touches and 4 tackles from 8 CBA’s and should hold his spot after the bye.
RUCKS
| Player | Club | Price (Change) | Score (Ave) | BE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlan MCANDREW* (FWD) | SYD | $123,900 | 23 (38) | 24 |
| Nick BRYAN (FWD) | ESS | $200,000 | 41 (41) | 38 |
| Esava RATUGOLEA (FWD) | GEE | $352,200 (-$8.4k) | 37 (64) | 91 |
| Samson RYAN (FWD) | RIC | $344,500 (-$14.9k) | 39 (63) | 101 |
Ratugolea was injured in the 3rd quarter after having 8 touches at 50% with 5 marks, 4 intercepts and 5 one percenters, just couldn’t quite make it to his bye to reward coaches that stuck with him after the 1st few weeks. Ryan was another ruckman subbed out after 50% game time. He had just 2 touches with 2 marks, a goal and 4 hitouts as he has lost almost all his ruck time now featuring in just 6 contests. McAndrew had a bit of 2nd game blues as Hickey returned. He was subbed out in the last but even so had just 42% TOG for his 3 touch, 7 hitout game to show coaches why we shouldn’t go early on rookies. Bryan made it 4/4 rookie rucks subbed off this week in his 1st game of the year. 6 touches, 2 marks and 10 hitouts but isn’t enough yet with his inflated price.
FORWARDS
| Player | Club | Price (Change) | Score (Ave) | BE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie FORD* | NTH | $123,900 | 83 (93) | -114 |
| Kaine BALDWIN* | ESS | $172,900 | DNP (68) | -36 |
| Brent DANIELS | GWS | $373,800 (+$27.2k) | 109 (77) | 1 |
| Jye MENZIE | ESS | $231,000 (+$25.1k) | 66 (50) | 1 |
| Will PHILLIPS (FWD) | NTH | $300,500 (+$19.5k) | 99 (70) | 4 |
| Sam BUTLER | HAW | $256,000 (+$36.3k) | 52 (54) | 8 |
| Tyler BROCKMAN | HAW | $267,000 (+$14.8k) | 43 (58) | 9 |
| Bailey HUMPHREY (MID) | GCS | $350,600 (+$64.9k) | 90 (61) | 11 |
| Phoenix SPICER | NTH | $129,600 (+$5.7k) | 11 (28) | 14 |
| Ryan ANGWIN (MID) | GWS | $187,200 (+$14.1k) | 61 (45) | 26 |
| Oliver DEMPSEY | GEE | $146,600 | DNP (27) | 27 |
| Cam MACKENZIE (MID) | HAW | $281,700 (+$17k) | 42 (59) | 33 |
| Blake DRURY (MID) | NTH | $112,100 | DNP (27) | 36 |
| Thomas BERRY | GCS | $148,600 (+$7k) | 44 (39) | 37 |
| Aaron CADMAN | GWS | $135,600 (-$6.8k) | 20 (23) | 40 |
| Josh TREACY | FRE | $278,800 (+$29.6k) | 64 (54) | 43 |
| Sam STURT | FRE | $156,100 (+$8k) | 16 (35) | 44 |
| Mattaes PHILLIPOU (MID) | STK | $251,900 (+$7.3k) | 51 (53) | 46 |
| Corey WARNER* (MID) | SYD | $123,900 | 1 (19) | 46 |
| Jacob VAN ROOYEN | MEL | $280,700 (+$13.7k) | 55 (60) | 48 |
| Anthony CAMINITI | STK | $242,100 (+$2.1k) | 45 (53) | 48 |
| Luke PEDLAR | ADE | $311,500 (+$14.3k) | 75 (62) | 49 |
| Xavier O'HALLORAN (MID) | GWS | $270,600 (-$1.8k) | 43 (58) | 51 |
| Angus SHELDRICK* (MID) | SYD | $165,700 | DNP (10) | 54 |
| Francis EVANS | PTA | $167,700 (+$5.8k) | 13 (28) | 55 |
| Alwyn DAVEY (MID) | ESS | $179,700 | DNP (42) | 56 |
| Judson CLARKE | RIC | $180,600 (-$25.8k) | 27 (43) | 58 |
| Sam SIMPSON (MID) | GEE | $250,600 | DNP (58) | 59 |
| Arthur JONES | WBD | $254,900 (+$11.8k) | 47 (43) | 73 |
| Kade CHANDLER | MEL | $329,700 (-$18.9k) | 31 (70) | 73 |
| Noah LONG (MID) | WCE | $233,500 (-$10.6k) | 25 (53) | 73 |
| Luke EDWARDS (MID) | WCE | $232,900 (-$19.7k) | 8 (48) | 94 |
| Ben KING | GCS | $383,800 (+$6k) | 38 (63) | 116 |
The Good: Daniels went back-to-back tons with this game. He had 19 touches at 53% but 10 possessions were contested to help match his 6 clangers. Add in 7 tackles, 8 score involvements and 3 goals all in the 2nd half. Phillips had the best game of his career with 29 touches although just 6 kicks with 10 contested. 2 marks, 5 tackles and 5 clearances from his 17 CBA’s shows what he can do when in the middle. Humphrey played well again and is loving his increased opportunity in the middle. This week he had 19 touches, 3 marks a goal and over 500 metres gained.
The Bad: Spicer was subbed out after having just 2 touches in 47% TOG. Chandler had a quiet game and was subbed out after just 6 touches, 3 marks and 4 tackles.
Time To Trade: King, Jones
Nick Daicos Rookie of the Year Award:
3 – Brent Daniels
2 – Will Phillips
1 – Bailey Humphrey
Nick Daicos Rookie of the Year Award After Round 11:
22 – Harry Sheezel
6 – Ben King
6 – Will Ashcroft
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Really hope Chesser and Cincotta play this week so at least one will cover for Sicily. Then hoping Laird gets off so they both don’t need to cover
Is there anyway to confirm that Ashcrofts BE is 109?
Would seem like a good time to trade with high BE and bye round….
SuperCoach is still showing his BE for R13 as 109.
I was more wanting to hold him through the byes as a decent scoring warm body on the field. Trading him out now will still mean I have player to still miss a bye in the coming rounds
I’m not sure Ballzy, I checked Footywire but that didn’t have one due to the bye. His break even was 9 last week so it is probably not 109 this week as his 2 scores before were 97 and 124. The 124 is still in his price cycle so my guess is that it is between 30-75.
FD’s Cow talk will give us an indication tomorrow on what we can expect his price to do next game he plays.
FD’s figures tomorrow will be more accurate, but looking at player profiles in Footywire, it shows
Current price 420,400
Next price movement (13,900)
New price 406,500
Next price movement +2,500
New price 409,000
If this is correct, then it feels like that we might be talking whether a 10k loss in value is enough to force a trade, or a small price for a good rookie during the bye rounds.
Lets hope you’re right! If there’s still price increases + warm body for bye rounds worth holding until BE is too high.
Original plan was Ashcroft last rookie upgrade straight to Premo. The 109 BE if it was factual is what has scared me off that plan
He has done his job, and along with McKenna and sharp, will be moved on for Ford, MacRae, and Mullin. MacRae and his R15 bye not ideal, but it’s too late if not now. So it’s 3 non playing lions out this week for three warm bodies in a tough week few saw coming.
I went a week early on Ford which worked out.
Not sure if I have the balls to go a week early on Mullin considering cats outs’ and no wins in 3
Might have to risk it for the MacRae biscuit
By my calculations, using a magic number around 5.25k it should be ~65.
Might be a little unders, but no way is it 109
Too serious has his BE at 79, which makes way more sense.
I need to do a cow brag, as the wife doesn’t want to hear about it:
When I saw Darcy was injured (fortunately I had him Emg)
I traded in Briggs with 1min to go to the bounce, sight unseen, for Long who was my only bench player. Needed to roll the dice to win my cash league knowing i can’t field a full team this week.
Ended up winning by 40pts. He was the difference.. huge risk but it paid off ‘briggs’ time (sorry!)
Hope he continues to get a game