Scoring Anomalies – Round 9

As I said last time around, it’s time to try and work out what’s behind those blue and red lines above. Having managed to get the requisite data last week,  I was hoping to have more to show for my efforts, but this last week has gone by very quickly, and I haven’t had as much of a chance to poke around as I was hoping.

I have had plenty of time to think about my mental model of how I think the scaling works, so I thought I’d share that with you this week. Hopefully this will be at least somewhat enlightening; in any case, forcing myself to explain it to others will very quickly show up any deficiencies in my understanding, so it’s also a good way of figuring out what I don’t know.

The scaling has two purposes: first, to get the number of points allocated down to 3300 (a typical game in 2021 will be in the mid-4000s). This is what the linear scaling is all about. The second is to alter the actual proportions of points given out, so that some players do better, and others do worse. This, we’re told, is primarily based on the extent to which the game was ‘on the line’ when players were involved in the game.

The way the first part works is simple: multiply each player’s score by some multiplier, determined by dividing 3300 by the total raw points allocated for the match, before rounding. So…

Linear-Scaled Score = Raw Score x Multiplier

Where

Multiplier = 3300 / Total Raw Points For The Match

The second part is a little more complicated. Basically, the match is divided up into chunks of time, each of which is assigned a weighting based on how close the match is during that chunk of time. Raw points from that period are then multiplied by that weighting (the default would be 1, so that, by default, the scores don’t change). For example, an effective kick is normally 4 points, but, if the weighting for that period of time is only .75, then it would only be worth 3 points. If the weighting was 1.5, then it would be worth 6. That’s before we scale things to 3300.

So, how is that weighting determined? Beyond “it has something to do with how close the game is”, I’m not sure yet. I’ll need to actually play around with the data to work that out. In the meantime, if anyone knows of anything online where Champion Data explains something about how their scaling works, let me know in the comments – it could prove very helpful!

Likewise, if there’s anything about the above explanation that seems off, or just doesn’t make sense, please let me know in the comments.

As always, you can look up any player you like in the table below to see how their score was affected by scaling on the weekend; for an in-depth breakdown of their scoring, see the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.

 

Name	Club	Raw	Linear-Scaled	Actual	Diff
Chris Burgess	GCFC	41.5	33	40	7
John Noble	COLL	80.5	64	62	-2
Liam Baker	RICH	159	132	130	-2
Lachie Schultz	FRE	63.5	50	58	8
Mitch Lewis	HAW	47.5	37	41	4
Tom Doedee	ADEL	138.5	105	113	8
Jack Henry	GEEL	79.5	64	61	-3
Harry McKay	CARL	81.5	70	75	5
James Cousins	HAW	147	116	113	-3
Harry Morrison	HAW	94	74	71	-3
Willem Drew	PORT	132	105	109	4
Hugh McCluggage	BL	144.5	116	128	12
Daniel Rioli	RICH	71	59	82	23
Nick Larkey	NMFC	69	54	60	6
Jordan Ridley	ESS	130	102	105	3
Oliver Hanrahan	HAW	45.5	36	31	-5
Izak Rankine	GCFC	40.5	33	33	0
Connor Rozee	PORT	84	67	71	4
Isaac Cumming	GWS	127	105	104	-1
Bayley Fritsch	MELB	79	68	73	5
Mitch Hannan	WB	49.5	39	34	-5
Ben McKay	NMFC	69.5	55	58	3
Esava Ratugolea	GEEL	102	82	84	2
James Worpel	HAW	99.5	78	73	-5
Jack Higgins	STK	60	48	51	3
Lachie Fogarty	CARL	94.5	81	74	-7
Patrick Naish	RICH	61.5	51	46	-5
Andrew Brayshaw	FRE	162	127	126	-1
Adam Cerra	FRE	125	98	88	-10
Noah Balta	RICH	30	25	28	3
Kane Farrell	PORT	46	37	37	0
Hunter Clark	STK	90.5	73	70	-3
Luke Davies-Uniacke	NMFC	128	101	94	-7
Charlie Spargo	MELB	73.5	63	60	-3
James Bell	SYD	0	0	0	0
Jarrod Brander	WCE	99	75	70	-5
Zac Bailey	BL	100.5	81	82	1
Mitch Crowden	FRE	39	31	27	-4
Brandon Starcevich	BL	89	72	57	-15
Aaron Naughton	WB	117	93	98	5
Callum L. Brown	COLL	52	41	42	1
Jack Bytel	STK	82.5	66	66	0
Patrick Lipinski	WB	57.5	46	46	0
Hayden McLean	SYD	139	111	117	6
Jack Lukosius	GCFC	74	59	54	-5
Zac Langdon	WCE	0	0	0	0
Oscar Allen	WCE	93	70	70	0
Tobe Watson	FRE	70.5	55	59	4
Beau McCreery	COLL	52.5	42	44	2
Zach Guthrie	GEEL	63.5	51	47	-4
Lachie Young	NMFC	41	32	33	1
Jordon Butts	ADEL	79.5	60	58	-2
Todd Marshall	PORT	72	57	66	9
Josh Daicos	COLL	106.5	85	78	-7
Sam Taylor	GWS	56	47	51	4
Kade Chandler	MELB	16	14	7	-7
Oscar McInerney	BL	109	88	71	-17
Josh Corbett	GCFC	36	29	37	8
Tarryn Thomas	NMFC	101.5	80	94	14
Malcolm Rosas	GCFC	28.5	23	21	-2
Liam Henry	FRE	39	31	33	2
Nick Blakey	SYD	67	53	51	-2
Jacob Koschitzke	HAW	92	72	70	-2
Keidean Coleman	BL	72.5	58	48	-10
Caleb Graham	GCFC	78	63	50	-13
Sam Walsh	CARL	139	120	111	-9
Bailey J. Williams	WCE	63.5	48	45	-3
James Rowbottom	SYD	117	93	100	7
Bailey Smith	WB	129	103	95	-8
Jack Ross	RICH	0	0	0	0
Xavier O'Halloran	GWS	72.5	60	56	-4
Lachlan Sholl	ADEL	109	83	75	-8
Curtis Taylor	NMFC	57	45	44	-1
Max King	STK	83.5	67	64	-3
Ben King	GCFC	72.5	58	64	6
Bobby Hill	GWS	45.5	38	45	7
Jordan Clark	GEEL	56.5	45	53	8
Chayce Jones	ADEL	50	38	39	1
Sam Wicks	SYD	89.5	71	82	11
Dylan Moore	HAW	87.5	69	65	-4
Jack Petruccelle	WCE	65	49	57	8
Wil Powell	GCFC	56.5	45	48	3
Connor Idun	GWS	75	62	61	-1
Isaac Quaynor	COLL	70	56	49	-7
Jake Riccardi	GWS	72.5	60	48	-12
Matthew Cottrell	CARL	69.5	60	58	-2
Will Hamill	ADEL	64	48	50	2
Tyler Brown	COLL	82.5	66	61	-5
Brayden Ham	ESS	63.5	50	51	1
Tom McCartin	SYD	86	69	68	-1
Riley Collier-Dawkins	RICH	101	84	88	4
Liam Stocker	CARL	52.5	45	53	8
Riley Thilthorpe	ADEL	69	52	62	10
Kieren Briggs	GWS	58.5	49	42	-7
Rhyan Mansell	RICH	31	26	23	-3
Kysaiah Pickett	MELB	60.5	52	50	-2
Harry Schoenberg	ADEL	83.5	63	67	4
Charlie Ballard	GCFC	98.5	79	76	-3
Harrison Petty	MELB	63.5	55	50	-5
Lachlan McNeil	WB	59.5	47	46	-1
Jack Mahony	NMFC	72	57	57	0
Miles Bergman	PORT	70	56	53	-3
Noah Anderson	GCFC	101	81	84	3
Lachie Ash	GWS	66.5	55	55	0
Sam Flanders	GCFC	91	73	64	-9
Trent Rivers	MELB	79	68	60	-8
Deven Robertson	BL	76	61	68	7
Jaxon Prior	BL	71.5	57	66	9
Caleb Serong	FRE	108	85	73	-12
Tom Green	GWS	110	91	71	-20
Jack Buckley	GWS	74	61	63	2
Mitch Georgiades	PORT	82	65	69	4
Jack Madgen	COLL	0	0	0	0
Ronin O'Connor	ADEL	62	47	47	0
Caleb Poulter	COLL	87.5	70	66	-4
Tom Powell	NMFC	65.5	52	45	-7
Harrison Jones	ESS	59	46	49	3
Cody Weightman	WB	88.5	70	75	5
Justin McInerney	SYD	120	96	100	4
Hugo Ralphsmith	RICH	42.5	35	33	-2
Ryan Byrnes	STK	59	47	41	-6
Chad Warner	SYD	79	63	58	-5
Luke Parks	CARL	29	25	27	2
Tanner Bruhn	GWS	43.5	36	45	9
Sam Berry	ADEL	78.5	59	63	4
Will Phillips	NMFC	0	0	0	0
Charlie Lazzaro	NMFC	32	25	28	3
Oliver Henry	COLL	16.5	13	7	-6
James Jordon	MELB	114.5	99	96	-3
Matthew Owies	CARL	65	56	58	2
Mark Keane	COLL	54.5	43	47	4
Nik Cox	ESS	31.5	25	30	5
Archie Perkins	ESS	48.5	38	30	-8
Max Holmes	GEEL	0	0	0	0
David Mundy	FRE	105.5	83	90	7
Eddie Betts	CARL	51.5	44	51	7
Grant Birchall	BL	139	112	112	0
Lance Franklin	SYD	79.5	63	62	-1
Josh J. Kennedy	WCE	74	56	78	22
Marc Murphy	CARL	99	85	88	3
Paddy Ryder	STK	105	84	74	-10
Bachar Houli	RICH	96.5	80	70	-10
Joel Selwood	GEEL	88.5	71	66	-5
David Mackay	ADEL	74	56	51	-5
Travis Boak	PORT	151.5	120	123	3
Jack Riewoldt	RICH	54.5	45	51	6
Shaun Higgins	GEEL	102	82	88	6
Scott Pendlebury	COLL	93	74	73	-1
James Frawley	STK	67	54	49	-5
Josh P. Kennedy	SYD	113	90	83	-7
Dayne Zorko	BL	174.5	140	140	0
Ben McEvoy	HAW	98	77	70	-7
Robbie Gray	PORT	93.5	74	66	-8
Tom Hawkins	GEEL	98	79	91	12
Hamish Hartlett	PORT	85.5	68	67	-1
Ed Curnow	CARL	119.5	103	100	-3
Lachie Henderson	GEEL	117.5	94	99	5
Cale Hooker	ESS	83	65	69	4
David Zaharakis	ESS	88	69	68	-1
Rory Sloane	ADEL	117.5	89	82	-7
Nic Naitanui	WCE	161	122	125	3
Daniel Rich	BL	119.5	96	94	-2
Todd Goldstein	NMFC	184.5	145	150	5
Callan Ward	GWS	136	113	120	7
Chris Mayne	COLL	142.5	114	112	-2
Charlie Dixon	PORT	119.5	95	107	12
Liam Shiels	HAW	125	98	97	-1
Luke Breust	HAW	93.5	74	80	6
Dylan Grimes	RICH	106.5	88	98	10
Jake Melksham	MELB	0	0	0	0
Ben Cunnington	NMFC	184.5	145	134	-11
Jack Ziebell	NMFC	113	89	89	0
Steele Sidebottom	COLL	125	100	94	-6
Travis Colyer	FRE	54.5	43	40	-3
Steven Motlop	PORT	85.5	68	63	-5
Michael Walters	FRE	85	67	63	-4
Mitch Duncan	GEEL	154	124	121	-3
Liam Jones	CARL	35	30	27	-3
Brad Sheppard	WCE	115.5	88	72	-16
Steven May	MELB	99	85	95	10
Hugh Greenwood	GCFC	133.5	107	104	-3
Levi Casboult	CARL	55.5	48	55	7
Easton Wood	WB	7.5	6	7	1
Jack Redden	WCE	137	104	108	4
Taylor Duryea	WB	120.5	96	88	-8
Michael Hibberd	MELB	60	52	56	4
David Astbury	RICH	81	67	62	-5
Kyle Hartigan	HAW	70	55	56	1
Tom Campbell	NMFC	107.5	85	88	3
Josh Thomas	COLL	74.5	59	60	1
Dane Rampe	SYD	103	82	91	9
Mitch Robinson	BL	138	111	104	-7
Max Gawn	MELB	152	131	117	-14
Cameron Guthrie	GEEL	171	137	136	-1
Dyson Heppell	ESS	115	90	91	1
Daniel Lloyd	GWS	100.5	83	100	17
Jimmy Webster	STK	73.5	59	61	2
Luke Parker	SYD	123	98	98	0
Shaun Atley	NMFC	89	70	66	-4
Alex Keath	WB	49.5	39	38	-1
Tom Liberatore	WB	128	102	96	-6
Andrew Gaff	WCE	138.5	105	94	-11
Reece Conca	FRE	0	0	0	0
Jamie Cripps	WCE	138	105	114	9
David Swallow	GCFC	147.5	119	127	8
Jack Darling	WCE	106	80	102	22
Dustin Martin	RICH	139	115	121	6
Gary Rohan	GEEL	95	76	76	0
Josh Bruce	WB	64	51	50	-1
Tom McDonald	MELB	138	119	136	17
Ryan Lester	BL	14	11	17	6
Josh Walker	NMFC	95.5	75	74	-1
Nat Fyfe	FRE	101.5	80	84	4
Will Hoskin-Elliott	COLL	111	88	82	-6
Brodie Smith	ADEL	92.5	70	70	0
Devon Smith	ESS	43.5	34	29	-5
Adam Treloar	WB	106.5	85	83	-2
Matt Buntine	GWS	40	33	36	3
Tom Stewart	GEEL	130	104	98	-6
Robbie Fox	SYD	72	57	58	1
Brody Mihocek	COLL	39.5	31	32	1
Tom Mitchell	HAW	104	82	76	-6
Ben Brown	MELB	50.5	43	49	6
Brendon Ah Chee	WCE	80.5	61	63	2
Chad Wingard	HAW	119	94	92	-2
Harry Cunningham	SYD	88	70	62	-8
Tom Jonas	PORT	66	52	50	-2
Zach Tuohy	GEEL	127	102	110	8
Luke Brown	ADEL	107	81	79	-2
Rory Laird	ADEL	175	133	120	-13
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	105	84	96	12
Hayden Crozier	WB	98.5	78	80	2
Brandon Ellis	GCFC	99.5	80	80	0
Jarryd Lyons	BL	186.5	150	138	-12
Sam Frost	HAW	102	80	87	7
Tom J. Lynch	RICH	67.5	56	53	-3
Jeremy Cameron	GEEL	66	53	59	6
Sebastian Ross	STK	132.5	107	103	-4
Matt Taberner	FRE	110.5	87	91	4
Jack Crisp	COLL	144	115	111	-4
Jed Bews	GEEL	55.5	45	42	-3
Brodie Grundy	COLL	135	108	109	1
Sean Lemmens	GCFC	28.5	23	14	-9
George Hewett	SYD	99.5	79	72	-7
Andrew Phillips	ESS	91.5	72	69	-3
Michael Hartley	HAW	46	36	38	2
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	107	84	87	3
Jason Johannisen	WB	94	75	86	11
Nathan Wilson	FRE	85.5	67	73	6
Marcus Adams	BL	103	83	87	4
Sam Menegola	GEEL	107	86	96	10
Tom Hickey	SYD	139	111	118	7
Lachie Whitfield	GWS	97	81	80	-1
Brad Crouch	STK	146.5	118	116	-2
Ollie Wines	PORT	178	141	139	-2
Aliir Aliir	PORT	97	77	76	-1
Rory Atkins	GCFC	70.5	57	65	8
Tom Clurey	PORT	6.5	5	4	-1
Joe Daniher	BL	101	81	84	3
Kamdyn McIntosh	RICH	70	58	62	4
Tim Membrey	STK	80.5	65	69	4
Jaeger O'Meara	HAW	103	81	71	-10
Lachie Plowman	CARL	38.5	33	29	-4
James Stewart	ESS	60.5	48	46	-2
Nick Vlastuin	RICH	87.5	73	80	7
Zac Williams	CARL	101.5	87	85	-2
Paul Seedsman	ADEL	90	68	62	-6
Jeremy McGovern	WCE	135.5	103	99	-4
Isaac Smith	GEEL	113	91	79	-12
James Aish	FRE	122	96	95	-1
Caleb Daniel	WB	143	114	120	6
Nathan Broad	RICH	115.5	96	86	-10
Jake Lloyd	SYD	127.5	102	98	-4
Toby Greene	GWS	80	66	71	5
Sam Collins	GCFC	58	47	57	10
Adam Saad	CARL	95	82	80	-2
Jack Macrae	WB	143.5	114	115	1
Sam Docherty	CARL	152.5	131	120	-11
Bradley Hill	STK	108.5	87	88	1
Tim Kelly	WCE	170.5	129	127	-2
Trent Dumont	NMFC	67	53	53	0
Tim O'Brien	HAW	49.5	39	35	-4
Taylor Garner	NMFC	97.5	77	73	-4
Michael Gibbons	CARL	56	48	49	1
Jack Steele	STK	145.5	117	116	-1
Jarman Impey	HAW	110	87	82	-5
Darcy Gardiner	BL	117.5	94	94	0
Blake Acres	FRE	90.5	71	75	4
Dom Sheed	WCE	95.5	72	71	-1
Jesse Hogan	GWS	114.5	95	89	-6
Orazio Fantasia	PORT	46	37	38	1
Josh Kelly	GWS	162.5	135	132	-3
Jack Billings	STK	124.5	100	101	1
Christian Salem	MELB	125.5	108	116	8
Alex Neal-Bullen	MELB	91.5	79	81	2
Callum Wilkie	STK	43	35	37	2
Mark Blicavs	GEEL	111	89	85	-4
Aaron Hall	NMFC	136	107	112	5
Karl Amon	PORT	118.5	94	92	-2
Marcus Bontempelli	WB	163	130	128	-2
Nick Hind	ESS	175	138	127	-11
Jake Kelly	ADEL	88	67	63	-4
Daniel McStay	BL	128.5	103	125	22
Reilly O'Brien	ADEL	97	73	80	7
James Harmes	MELB	113.5	98	84	-14
Nic Newman	CARL	94.5	81	76	-5
Toby Nankervis	RICH	118.5	98	105	7
Christian Petracca	MELB	113.5	98	101	3
Ed Langdon	MELB	126	108	110	2
Angus Brayshaw	MELB	87.5	75	66	-9
Jayden Laverde	ESS	76	60	65	5
Jake Lever	MELB	107	92	90	-2
Darcy Moore	COLL	83	66	75	9
Peter Wright	ESS	56.5	44	54	10
Marc Pittonet	CARL	117	101	100	-1
Jackson Nelson	WCE	59	45	42	-3
Oleg Markov	GCFC	119.5	96	101	5
Brandan Parfitt	GEEL	84	68	71	3
Callum Ah Chee	BL	54	43	51	8
Shane McAdam	ADEL	100.5	76	81	5
Lachie Weller	GCFC	71	57	64	7
Isaac Heeney	SYD	137.5	110	110	0
Kyle Langford	ESS	78	61	67	6
Tom Barrass	WCE	79.5	60	53	-7
Darcy Cameron	COLL	90	72	75	3
Will Snelling	ESS	75	59	56	-3
Charlie Cameron	BL	84.5	68	76	8
Patrick Cripps	CARL	110.5	95	94	-1
Rory Lobb	FRE	87	68	66	-2
Aaron Francis	ESS	68	53	51	-2
Jack Graham	RICH	115.5	96	109	13
Billy Frampton	ADEL	36.5	28	29	1
Darcy Byrne-Jones	PORT	115	91	87	-4
Jason Castagna	RICH	88	73	64	-9
Zaine Cordy	WB	127	101	111	10
Jack Lonie	STK	43.5	35	38	3
Brayden Maynard	COLL	131.5	105	115	10
Connor Menadue	NMFC	38.5	30	35	5
Zach Merrett	ESS	89	70	64	-6
Anthony Scott	WB	68	54	57	3
Jayden Short	RICH	119	99	101	2
Roarke Smith	WB	75	60	62	2
Sam Switkowski	FRE	66	52	52	0
Ryan Burton	PORT	52.5	42	39	-3
Jordan Dawson	SYD	91.5	73	81	8
Jordon Sweet	WB	75	60	56	-4
Bailey Williams	WB	107	85	85	0
Dan Butler	STK	88	71	78	7
Daniel Howe	HAW	0	0	0	0
Rowan Marshall	STK	62	50	43	-7
Kayne Turner	NMFC	49	39	36	-3
Jake Aarts	RICH	75.5	63	66	3
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	23.5	20	18	-2
Dougal Howard	STK	74	59	56	-3
Marlion Pickett	RICH	63	52	46	-6
Blake Hardwick	HAW	158	124	134	10
David Cuningham	CARL	0	0	0	0
Tom Wilson	COLL	23.5	19	19	0
Sam Weideman	MELB	42.5	37	49	12
Darcy Tucker	FRE	83	65	62	-3
Darcy Parish	ESS	169.5	133	134	1
Tom Cole	WCE	71.5	54	54	0
Rhys Mathieson	BL	76.5	61	57	-4
Jacob Weitering	CARL	56.5	49	43	-6
Matt Flynn	GWS	140	116	103	-13
Jacob Hopper	GWS	165.5	137	137	0
Callum Mills	SYD	140	112	100	-12
Ben Long	STK	8	6	8	2
Ben Keays	ADEL	111.5	84	85	1
Eric Hipwood	BL	100.5	81	81	0
Sam Powell-Pepper	PORT	94.5	75	74	-1
Jy Simpkin	NMFC	212.5	167	164	-3
Jordan De Goey	COLL	72.5	58	61	3
Jayden Hunt	MELB	78	67	78	11
Tom Atkins	GEEL	95	76	74	-2
Jack Sinclair	STK	88	71	70	-1
Riley Bonner	PORT	75	60	48	-12
Harris Andrews	BL	147.5	119	91	-28
Matt Guelfi	ESS	87	68	61	-7
Darcy MacPherson	GCFC	14.5	12	7	-5
Tom Phillips	HAW	97	76	81	5
Jake Waterman	WCE	113.5	86	82	-4
Clayton Oliver	MELB	150.5	129	140	11
Bailey Dale	WB	107	85	85	0
Tom Papley	SYD	87.5	70	77	7
Brennan Cox	FRE	128	101	102	1
Mason Redman	ESS	146	115	121	6
Will Hayward	SYD	102	81	83	2
Peter Ladhams	PORT	93.5	74	67	-7
Andrew McPherson	ADEL	0	0	0	0
Josh Rotham	WCE	120.5	91	84	-7
Griffin Logue	FRE	115	90	100	10
Andrew McGrath	ESS	139	109	104	-5
Oliver Florent	SYD	71	57	55	-2
Jack Scrimshaw	HAW	137.5	108	109	1
Taylin Duman	FRE	97	76	70	-6
Alex Witherden	WCE	161	122	122	0
Ben Ainsworth	GCFC	67	54	48	-6
Josh Battle	STK	96	77	72	-5
Sean Darcy	FRE	180	141	146	5
Tim Taranto	GWS	124	103	96	-7
Tom Highmore	STK	58.5	47	47	0
Harry Perryman	GWS	95.5	79	72	-7
Will Setterfield	CARL	101	87	82	-5
Jack Bowes	GCFC	59	47	45	-2
Changkuoth Jiath	HAW	79	62	61	-1
Cameron Zurhaar	NMFC	74.5	59	81	22
Jamaine Jones	WCE	78	59	54	-5
James Rowe	ADEL	109	83	80	-3
Martin Frederick	PORT	11	9	14	5
Brad Close	GEEL	83.5	67	78	11
Darcy Fogarty	ADEL	68	52	59	7
Jy Farrar	GCFC	66.5	53	51	-2
Quinton Narkle	GEEL	86	69	67	-2

 

LEGEND:

Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.

 

Round 9 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

Round 9 Summary (General Categories)

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